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“反内卷”专家电话会:氨纶行业拐点何时出现?
2025-08-27 15:19
Summary of the Conference Call on the Spandex Industry Industry Overview - The spandex market is experiencing stable demand expansion, particularly in outdoor, yoga, and sun-protective clothing sectors [1][2] - Domestic spandex production capacity is approximately 1.4 million tons, with China being the largest consumer market, followed by Brazil and Turkey [3][15][17] Key Points and Arguments - **Market Demand**: The demand for spandex is consistently growing, especially in elastic fabric applications. The market is expected to maintain stable growth due to the increasing demand from outdoor and sports brands [3][4] - **Production Capacity**: Limited new production capacity is anticipated in 2025, with only Hengsheng adding 50,000 tons and Xiaoxin releasing 30,000 tons. Other companies are still in the equipment installation phase [10][13] - **Environmental and Cost Pressures**: Coastal spandex manufacturers face significant environmental and cost pressures, leading to potential closures or relocations. More companies are expected to exit the market by the end of this year or early next year [6][7][11] - **Price Adjustments**: Some manufacturers have proposed price increases of 500 to 1,000 yuan due to market conditions, despite overall production challenges [5][10] Additional Important Insights - **Technological Advancements**: Korean companies have a competitive edge in terms of breeding speed, output, and quality. Environmental products are expected to become a crucial competitive factor in the future [3][19] - **Inventory Levels**: The average inventory level in the spandex industry is around 50 days, with leading companies maintaining lower inventory levels compared to smaller manufacturers [25][26] - **Biobased Spandex**: There is a growing interest in biobased spandex, although current demand is low. The market is expected to see increased production and adoption in the next 3 to 5 years [20][23][24] Conclusion - The spandex industry is at a critical juncture, with stable demand but significant challenges related to production capacity, environmental regulations, and cost pressures. The outlook for the second half of 2025 and into 2026 appears cautiously optimistic, with potential improvements in supply-demand dynamics [28]