晨会纪要 证券研究报告 2025 年 08 月 26 日 核心结论 【电子】汇顶科技(603160.SH) 2025 年半年报点评:多点布局新品持续 放量，旺季催化看好业绩增长 公司是指纹传感器全球领先企业，覆盖"传感、AI 计算、连接、安全"四大 核心业务,成长动力充足。我们预计汇顶科技 2025-2027 年营收分别为 55.24、65.8、78.4 亿元，归母净利润分别为 8.56、10.78、12.68 亿元。我 们持续看好公司未来业务拓展及业绩增长,维持"买入"评级。 【电子】聚辰股份（688123.SH）2025 年半年报点评：DDR5 SPD 与车规 EEPROM 齐放量,利润率显著提升 我们预计公司 25/26/27 年营收分别为 13.09/17.95/24.03 亿元,归母净利润 分别为 4.42/6.32/8.67 亿元，维持"买入"评级。 【传媒】芒果超媒（300413.SZ）2025 年上半年业绩点评: 芒果 TV 表现相 对稳定,看好新政下平台发展 我们预计公司 25-27 年归母净利润分别为 14.47/15.10/18.95 亿元, YoY+6%/+4%/+25%，内容储备丰富 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The chemical industry is currently at the bottom of the cycle, but leading Chinese companies have strong cash flow and low debt ratios, which may enhance potential dividend yields as capacity expansion slows down [1][3][5] - Global GDP growth supports chemical demand, and changes on the supply side combined with demand growth are expected to lead to a recovery in industry prosperity [1][4] Key Insights - The "anti-involution" policy aims to control new capacity in sectors like coal chemical, refining, and polyurethane, which may still yield considerable dividend rates even at the cycle's bottom [1][5] - The industrial silicon and soda ash sectors, which are currently in surplus, have greater elasticity due to restrictions on existing and new capacities [1][5] - The oil and gas chemical sector has begun to see positive free cash flow in 2024, indicating a gradual improvement in the industry [8] Financial Metrics - In 2024, the net cash flow for the chemical industry is projected to shrink to nearly 20 billion, while total operating cash flow exceeds 250 billion [7] - Capital expenditures are expected to decrease from 350 billion to below 300 billion [7] - By 2025 or 2026, the industry is anticipated to generate positive net free cash flow, marking a historic shift [7] Company-Specific Insights - Hualu Hengsheng's market value in 2024 is approximately 50.6 billion, with cash flow expected to rise from 5 billion in 2025 to 8.3 billion by 2027, suggesting attractive dividend yields even in a downturn [9] - The European chemical production capacity utilization is at a historical low of around 74%, indicating that high-cost production is unlikely to recover, which benefits Chinese companies with cost advantages [10][11] Future Trends - The chemical industry is expected to see a rebound in prosperity due to low inventory levels and attractive valuations [11] - The exit of high-cost European production will allow Chinese leaders to further consolidate and expand their market positions [11] - The polyurethane sector is currently at a cyclical low, but price recovery is anticipated due to supply constraints and demand growth [18][19] Challenges and Opportunities - The olefin industry faces challenges with low prices, but strict approval processes for new capacities may lead to a recovery if production contracts [16] - The refining sector is grappling with overcapacity and outdated facilities, but the anti-involution policy may help improve market conditions for major players [17] - The organic silicon market is at a historical low, but limited new capacity and potential overseas exits may lead to a recovery in the medium to long term [24][25][26] Sector-Specific Recommendations - Focus on companies in controlled capacity sectors like coal chemicals (e.g., Hualu Hengsheng, Baofeng Energy) and refining (e.g., Sinopec) for potential dividend yields [5][17] - Monitor the industrial silicon market for companies like Hesheng Silicon Industry, which may see profit doubling if prices recover [32] - In the soda ash sector, companies like Boyuan Chemical are worth watching as they navigate a challenging market [33] Conclusion - The chemical industry is poised for a potential recovery driven by policy changes, strong cash flows from leading companies, and a favorable global economic backdrop. Investors should focus on companies with strong fundamentals and those positioned to benefit from supply-side constraints and market shifts.

资源品牛市，继续看好 20250824 摘要 中国高收益无风险资产稀缺，叠加资本市场改革提升可投资性，吸引超 高净值、高净值人群及实业资本入市，推动股市上涨。散户入市意愿虽 低，但未来或随无风险收益率下沉及改革推进而增加。 中国经济转型在人工智能、集成电路等领域取得进展，降低经济不确定 性，增强市场信心。无风险收益下沉促使资金涌向股票等资产管理需求 旺盛领域，推动市场整体上行。 预计 2025 年中国市场上升动力来自经济转型加速、无风险收益下沉和 资本市场改革。即使市场短暂调整，整体趋势仍然向好。 美联储降息预期升温，中美或进入宽松共振期。中国可能通过中国版 QE（央行购买长端国债）投放流动性，而非 LPR 降息，利好周期品投 资机会。 推荐关注金融（券商、银行、保险）、成长股（港股互联网传媒、创新 药、国防军工、算力、国潮品牌）、零售化妆品及周期品（有色金属、 化工、钢铁、建材）等板块。 中国经济转型对股市有何影响？ 中国经济转型加快，在人工智能、集成电路、创新药物以及国防军工领域取得 了显著进展。这些积极表现降低了中国经济的不确定性，提高了经济能见度。 随着这些领域的发展，中国经济的不确定性逐步下降，使得 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 华峰化学（002064）2025 年中报点评 强推（维持） 行业谷底业绩坚韧，氨纶盈利逆势抬升 目标价：11 元 事项： ❖ 近日公司发布 2025 年中报，上半年公司营业收入为 121.4 亿元，同比下降 11.7%；归母净利润为 9.83 亿元，同比下降 35.2%；扣非归母净利润为 9.04 亿 元，同比下降 37.8%；经营现金流净额为 13.52 亿元，同比增长 82.6%。2025Q2， 公司营业收入为 58.2 亿元，同比下降 17.8%；归母净利润为 4.79 亿元，同比 下降 42.6%。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 26,931 | 25,495 | 29,330 | 32,514 | | 同比增速(%) | 2.4% | -5.3% | 15.0% | 10.9% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 2,220 | 2,268 | 2,715 | 3,459 | | ...

上半年人民币贬值导致新乡化纤平均成本上涨 1,000 元，挤压利润空间， 但预计粘胶长丝受益于反内卷政策将维持高位运行。 2025 年上半年，新乡化纤氨纶销量超预期增长 19.4%，但受中美关税 战影响，售价及原料 PTG 价格下行，导致净利亏损，行业整体维持两位 数增长预期。 氨纶行业产能下降，小型厂家退出市场，行业触底。消费习惯改变推动 氨纶需求增长，各领域添加比例提升。 新乡化纤菌草浆生产达到阶段性目标，新疆种植规模预计年底达 3 万亩， 明年底达 7 万亩，验证经济性，但仍处于前期阶段。 粘胶长丝出口受益于中巴经济走廊，缩短运输距离，提高时效性，巴基 斯坦市场增长最快。 新乡化纤氨纶技术领先，掌握 120 头技术，成本控制优于行业平均水平， 但与华峰存在周转率和折旧时间差异。 新乡化纤菌草项目旨在实现木浆国产替代，符合国家战略，但目前盈利 不理想，需持续投入和技术调试。 Q&A 新乡化纤 2025 年上半年粘胶长丝的销售情况如何？ 2025 年上半年，新乡化纤的粘胶长丝销量与去年同期相比略有增长，增长了 几百吨，不到 1,000 吨。售价基本持平。然而，成本端受到进口木浆价格上涨 和人民币贬值的影响， ...

其 他 研 究 沪深300 及创业板指数近1年走势 数据来源：聚源 -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 2024-08 2024-12 2025-04 沪深300 创业板指 昨日涨跌幅前五行业 | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 农林牧渔 | 1.497 | | 石油石化 | 1.386 | | 美容护理 | 0.978 | | 公用事业 | 0.887 | | 传媒 | 0.775 | | 数据来源：聚源 | | 昨日涨跌幅后五行业 | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 机械设备 | -1.082 | | 电力设备 | -0.979 | | 综合 | -0.729 | | 国防军工 | -0.685 | | 电子 | -0.675 | | 数据来源：聚源 | | 开源晨会 0822 吴梦迪（分析师） wumengdi@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790521070001 观点精粹 行业公司 【银行】测算：高息定存到期规模、节奏与成本改善空间——行业点评报告 -20250821 【化工】氨纶：落后产能出清进行时，龙头企业有望受益—— ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The demand for spandex is expected to continue growing due to increasing penetration rates in the textile industry and rising consumer preferences for comfort [5][13] - The spandex industry is currently facing severe overcapacity, with outdated production capacity gradually being eliminated [6][22] - The supply-demand dynamics are expected to improve as outdated capacity is cleared, benefiting leading companies in the industry [7][44] Summary by Sections Demand Side - Spandex is primarily used in the textile and apparel sector, with 76% of spandex consumption in 2024 dedicated to clothing production, resulting in an apparent consumption volume of 1.0269 million tons [5][14] - The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for spandex apparent consumption from 2020 to 2024 is 9.21%, significantly higher than other mainstream fibers [14] - The retail sales of clothing, shoes, and textiles in China increased by 3.10% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, further driving spandex demand [14][19] Supply Side - The spandex industry has been experiencing significant overcapacity, with an average gross profit margin of -5,217 yuan/ton as of August 13, 2025, indicating prolonged losses [6][25] - In 2024, new spandex production capacity is expected to increase by 135,000 tons, with a year-on-year growth rate of 10.88%, continuing a trend of over 10% growth for three consecutive years [25][39] - The industry concentration ratio (CR5) stands at 79.53%, indicating a high level of market concentration among leading companies [33][35] Future Outlook - Leading companies such as Huafeng Chemical and Xinxiang Chemical Fiber are expected to benefit from their cost advantages, with unit costs significantly lower than the industry average [7][39] - The anticipated new production capacity for spandex in 2025 is only 111,000 tons, indicating a slowdown in capacity growth [33][48] - Recommended stocks include Huafeng Chemical, with other beneficiaries being Xinxiang Chemical Fiber and Taihe New Materials [45][48]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the chemical industry [2] Core Insights - The chemical industry is expected to benefit from anti-involution policies aimed at curbing disorderly competition and eliminating outdated production capacity, which may lead to a recovery in industrial product prices and positively impact PPI and CPI [6][11][17] - The report highlights the significant influence of the energy and chemical sectors on PPI, with their price fluctuations directly affecting overall industrial inflation levels [16] - The industry is under pressure from declining product prices and reduced capacity utilization, leading to a strong demand for anti-involution measures [17] - The current valuation of the chemical industry is at a historical low, providing substantial upside potential as the sector is expected to recover from its cyclical bottom [17][19] Summary by Sections 1. Importance of Inflation Recovery - The report emphasizes that the chemical sector is a crucial lever for inflation recovery, as evidenced by the PPI's continuous decline and the need for policy intervention to combat deflationary pressures [6][11] 2. Reasons to Focus on Chemicals - The energy and chemical sectors account for 25%-30% of PPI, making their price recovery vital for overall inflation [16] - The industry faces significant profitability challenges, with nearly 25% of chemical companies reporting losses in 2024 [17] 3. Paths for Anti-Involution in Chemicals 3.1. Active Approach: Industry Self-Regulation - Certain sub-industries, such as polyester filament and sucralose, are attempting to improve profitability through supply-side collaboration, benefiting from high concentration and low profitability [27][29] - The report identifies key chemical products likely to benefit from self-regulation, including polyester filament, polyester bottle chips, and organic silicon [29][31] 3.2. Passive Approach: Policy-Driven Industry Improvement - The report outlines a dual-track policy framework focusing on optimizing existing capacity and strictly controlling new projects to enhance the competitive landscape [27][31] - Historical experiences suggest that effective policy measures will include phasing out outdated facilities and enforcing stricter environmental regulations [27][31]

Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 12.137 billion CNY in the first half of 2025, a decrease of 11.7% compared to the same period last year [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 35.23% year-on-year [2] - The gross margin of the chemical fiber segment increased by 3.68 percentage points compared to last year [2] - The gross margin of the basic chemical products segment decreased by 11.08 percentage points year-on-year [2] Industry Insights - The current inventory level in the industry is approximately 50 days, while the company's inventory is around 20 days [3] - The ammonia fiber industry is experiencing a consolidation phase, with smaller capacities exiting the market due to cost pressures and environmental policies [3] - The ammonia fiber industry is moving towards oligopoly and differentiation, with increased concentration among larger manufacturers [3] Customer Relations - The company has established strong trust and cooperation with downstream customers, leading to high customer stickiness [3] - The products are widely used in various sectors, enhancing customer reliance and long-term cooperation intentions [3] Strategic Developments - The company has terminated a previous asset restructuring project but plans to continue pushing for asset injection from two companies by December 2026 [3] - A strategic partnership with Eastman has been established to produce Naia™ acetate fibers in China, although the initial investment is small and will not significantly impact performance [4] - There are currently no new capacity expansion plans for the company's three main products [4] Future Outlook - The differentiated ammonia fiber production capacity is expected to gradually come online by the end of 2026 [4] - The domestic adipic acid market is maturing, with increased competition and a focus on quality, leading to further industry consolidation [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Neutral" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current cycle may be nearing its end, with expectations for demand recovery. Infrastructure and export demand are expected to remain robust in 2024, while the real estate cycle continues to decline. The consumer market has shown resilience after two years of recovery [4][5] - Supply-side pressures remain significant, with global chemical capital growth expected to turn negative in 2024. Domestic construction projects are seeing a rapid decline, but fixed asset investment continues to grow at over 15% [4] - The chemical industry is entering a replenishment phase after a year of destocking, with inventory growth turning positive by Q3 2024. However, the overall price and profit levels in the chemical industry are expected to face pressure throughout the year [4] Summary by Sections Industry Valuation and Economic Indicators - The report tracks various indicators including the chemical industry's comprehensive prosperity index and industrial added value [3] - Price indicators such as PPI, PPIRM, and CCPI are monitored, along with supply-side metrics like capacity utilization and fixed asset investment [3] Demand and Supply Dynamics - Demand stability is sought in industries led by supply logic, such as refrigerants and phosphates, with specific companies recommended for investment [7] - Conversely, industries with stable supply but driven by demand logic include MDI and explosives, with key companies highlighted [7] Global Market Trends - The report notes a shift in global investment and trade patterns due to rising protectionism and geopolitical tensions, emphasizing the need for regional cooperation and stability [7] - Investment opportunities are identified in both domestic and international markets, focusing on new production capabilities and breakthroughs in material science [7] Price Trends and Economic Performance - The chemical product price index (CCPI) has shown fluctuations, with a notable decline of approximately 6.9% from January to April 2025 [14] - The PPI for chemical raw materials and products has also experienced a downward trend, with June 2025 figures showing a year-on-year decrease of 6.1% [16]