Core Viewpoint - Zhongyuan Securities maintains a "market perform" investment rating for the basic chemical industry, suggesting investment opportunities in sectors benefiting from supply-side improvements and resource attributes under the backdrop of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [1] Group 1: Industry Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the basic chemical industry achieved total revenue of 19,924.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.69%, and a net profit of 1,170.62 billion yuan, up 7.58% year-on-year, indicating a continued recovery in industry profitability [2] - All 18 sub-industries within the basic chemical sector reported year-on-year revenue and profit growth, with significant differentiation among them, driven by improved supply-demand dynamics and demand recovery [3] Group 2: Profitability Trends - The basic chemical industry's gross margin and net margin have shown signs of recovery since early 2024, with gross margin at 17.69% and net margin at 6.17% in the first three quarters of 2025, both reflecting slight year-on-year increases [4] - Sub-industries such as fluorine chemicals, potash fertilizers, synthetic resins, chlor-alkali, and compound fertilizers have experienced notable improvements in profitability [4] Group 3: Financial Indicators - The basic chemical industry maintains a stable financial position, with a slight decrease in the asset-liability ratio, improved operating cash flow, and a decline in construction projects [5] - Inventory turnover days have increased slightly year-on-year, indicating changes in inventory management [5] Group 4: Regional Performance - Chemical enterprises in Henan province underperformed compared to the overall industry, with revenues of 564.21 billion yuan and 188.98 billion yuan in the first three quarters and third quarter respectively, reflecting declines of 2.21% and 1.03% year-on-year [6] - Net profits for Henan's chemical companies also fell significantly, with a year-on-year decrease of 29.33% and 26.70% for the respective periods [6]

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 化工板块今日（11月21日）继续回调，反映化工板块整体走势的化工ETF（516020）盘中场内价格一度 跌超4%，截至发稿，跌2.84%。 成份股方面，锂电、钛白粉、磷化工等板块部分个股跌幅居前。截至发稿，恩捷股份跌停，天赐材料大 跌超8%，联泓新科、钛能化学（维权）、和邦生物等多股跌超6%，拖累板块走势。 | | | 分时 多日 1分 5分 15分 30分 60分 日 周 月 更多 | | | | F9 盘前盘后 器加 九80 面线 工具 @ (2) | | 4. TETF (1 | | 516020 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 0.84 | | | | 516020(化工ETF) 13:55 价 0.786 图纸 -0.023(-2.84%) 均价 0.783 限交量 7517 IOPV 0.7856 2025/11 | | | | | | -0.023 -2.84% | | | | | | | | | | | SSE ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the chemical industry, suggesting a focus on price increases and anti-involution products [1][5]. Core Insights - The chemical sector saw a 2.61% increase in the second week of November, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.79 percentage points [2][13]. - Key recommended companies include those benefiting from rising lithium hexafluorophosphate prices and leading firms in the anti-involution trend [5]. Industry Performance - The chemical sector's dynamic PE ratio is 25.60, significantly above the average PE of 13.41 since 2015 [2][13]. - Among 27 sub-industries, five showed declines, with the top gainers being acrylic fiber (+15.18%) and nitrogen fertilizer (+9.19%) [3][18]. Price and Spread Trends - The top five products with the highest weekly price increases include liquid chlorine (+22.93%) and monochloromethane (+19.44%) [4][23]. - The largest price spread increases were seen in organic silicon DMC (+58.87%) and propylene (propane-based) (+45.69%) [4][44]. Inventory Changes - Significant inventory changes were noted, with polyester chips increasing by 8.93% and acetic acid by 6.69% [5][64]. Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies like Duofu Duo and Shenzhen New Star, which benefit from the high demand for lithium hexafluorophosphate, and Yun Tianhua, which is poised to gain from the strong phosphate chemical market [5].

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Construction Investment suggests focusing on sectors that are expected to benefit from the "anti-involution" trend, as the chemical industry faces a slowdown in capital expenditure and an approaching cyclical turning point [1] Group 1: Beneficial Sectors - Recommended sectors include pesticides, urea, soda ash, filament, organic silicon, and spandex, which are likely to benefit from the "anti-involution" trend [1] - In the context of a declining interest rate cycle, China's counter-cyclical policies are expected to boost domestic demand, making sectors like polyurethane, coal chemical, petroleum chemical, and fluorochemical attractive [1] Group 2: New Material Development - The development of new productive forces, self-control, and industrial upgrading are emphasized as key strategies in the context of major power competition, with new materials being a primary development direction for China's chemical industry [1] - Focus areas include semiconductor materials, OLED materials, COC materials, and other high value-added products [1] Group 3: High Shareholder Returns - High-quality companies with substantial shareholder returns are expected to continue their revaluation journey, particularly state-owned enterprises in the oil and gas petrochemical sector, coal chemical, compound fertilizer, phosphorus chemical, and leading companies in the MSG/feed amino acid industry [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Construction Investment suggests focusing on specific sectors within the chemical industry that are expected to benefit from the "anti-involution" trend and the upcoming economic cycle shift, while also highlighting the importance of new material development in the context of national competition [1] Group 1: Investment Recommendations - Attention is recommended for sectors such as pesticides, urea, soda ash, long fibers, organic silicon, and spandex, which are likely to benefit from the "anti-involution" trend [1] - In the context of a declining interest rate cycle, sectors like polyurethane, coal chemical, petroleum chemical, and fluorochemical are suggested for investment as they may help stimulate domestic demand [1] Group 2: Development Focus - The report emphasizes the development of new productive forces, self-sufficiency, and industrial upgrades as key strategies in the context of major power competition, with new materials being a primary focus for the Chinese chemical industry [1] - Specific attention is drawn to the continuous development of semiconductor materials, OLED materials, COC materials, and other high value-added products [1] Group 3: Quality Enterprises - High shareholder returns from quality enterprises are expected to continue their revaluation journey, with a focus on leading state-owned enterprises in oil and gas, coal chemical, compound fertilizer, phosphorus chemical, and amino acid industries for feed and flavoring [1]

周期论剑｜三季报深度挖掘 20251109 摘要 中国股市底层逻辑切换，估值折价的三大因素瓦解，市场进入估值修复 与扩张周期，未来驱动力包括无风险收益下沉、资本市场改革和经济转 型确定性。 预计 2026 年股市有望挑战十年前新高，本轮估值重塑将是广泛的，推 荐关注新兴科技、制造业出海优势、周期板块中的反内卷和新材料，以 及经济企稳后的金融板块。 短期内，预计 2025 年 11 月碳酸锂价格有望冲击 87,000 元/吨，但 11 月下旬至 2026 年 1 月可能回落至 75,000 元/吨左右。长期来看， 2026 年碳酸锂底部价格较今年有所提升，中枢约为 60,000-70,000 元 /吨。 化工行业整体处于底部，净利润创近 20 年新低，但随着资本开支下降 和需求可能回升，预计 2026 年景气度有望改善，建议优先配置龙头白 马股，如煤化工（华鲁恒升）、氨纶（华峰化学）和纯碱（博源化工）。 交运板块中，看好航空和油运。航空业受益于票价市场化和机队增速放 缓，油运受益于原油增产周期和地缘政治因素。推荐关注中国国航、吉 祥航空、南方航空、中国东航、春秋航空，以及中远海能、招商轮船和 招商南油。 Q&A ...

Core Viewpoint - The current expansion phase of the spandex industry is nearing its end, with future capacity additions concentrated among leading companies, despite a low demand environment in 2024 [1][4]. Industry Overview - The global spandex production capacity is projected to grow from 203,000 tons in 2000 to 1,750,000 tons in 2024, with a CAGR of 9.4%, and over 90% of this capacity is concentrated in Asia [3]. - China's spandex industry has experienced rapid growth, expanding from 89,000 tons in 2003 to 1,350,000 tons in 2024, with a CAGR of 14% [4]. Demand Trends - China's spandex consumption is on the rise, with apparent consumption increasing from 121,000 tons in 2005 to 1,012,000 tons in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 11.8% [5]. - The demand for spandex is driven by trends in fashion and comfort, with applications expanding into various sectors, including automotive interiors and medical supplies [5]. Production Cost Structure - The cost of raw materials accounts for approximately 40% of spandex production costs, with PTMEG and pure MDI being the primary raw materials [2]. - The control of non-raw material costs is a significant source of competitive advantage for spandex manufacturers [2].

Group 1: Industry Position and Market Dynamics - The spandex product prices and profit levels are currently at historical lows [2][4] - The industry inventory is around 50 days, while the company's inventory is approximately 20 days [3][4] - The spandex market is expected to see limited price rebound in the short term due to supply-demand factors, but long-term demand is projected to grow steadily [3][4] Group 2: Company Expansion and Production Plans - The company has no new expansion plans beyond the ongoing 150,000-ton spandex project, which is expected to be completed by the end of 2026 [2][3] - The PTMEG project is progressing as per the original plan [3] - The company is focusing on its core polyurethane industry chain development and aims to become a leading global player [3][4] Group 3: Raw Material Procurement and Cost Advantages - The company has significant advantages in raw material procurement due to its large-scale production capacity, enhancing negotiation power with suppliers [3] - The company’s adipic acid production benefits from advanced processes that improve material efficiency and reduce costs [3] Group 4: Financial Strategy and Shareholder Returns - The company maintains a cash-rich position and is committed to a balanced approach to investments and dividends, considering both short-term and long-term shareholder interests [3][4] - A structured plan for shareholder returns is being developed, focusing on sustainable and stable returns [3] Group 5: Market Demand and Product Structure - The demand for polyurethane raw materials remains stable, with applications in various industries such as footwear and furniture [3] - Approximately 25% of the company's spandex products are differentiated products, catering to various market segments [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company Taihe New Materials (002254) reported that its Yantai spandex facility is operating near the breakeven point, while the Ningdong spandex facility is still in a state of loss [1] Company Summary - The Yantai spandex facility is currently at the breakeven point, indicating a potential stabilization in operations [1] - The Ningdong spandex facility continues to incur losses, suggesting ongoing challenges in that segment [1]

周期论剑｜业绩与确定性 20251026 摘要 中国传统行业周期性减弱，固定资产投资减少，实业资本转向资产管理 需求，无风险收益下沉，推动资本市场发展。稳定垄断企业和转型企业 成为投资重点，前者提供稳定回报，后者代表未来技术趋势。 二十届四中全会重申经济建设为中心，治理思路转向积极发展，利好科 技与消费领域，重估股票和资本市场定价基础。中国应对中美贸易挑战 体系化成熟化，提升国家治理能力认可度，股市风险偏好提高。 预计 2025 年中国市场站稳 4,000 点，无二次探底，每次调整是加仓机 会，2026 年有望挑战 2015 年高点。新兴科技是主线，周期金融是黑 马。外部局势调整和中美关系冲突导致市场价格下跌，这构成了买点而 非卖点。 有色金属板块中，工业金属受益于中美贸易磋商推进及国内会议带来的 风险偏好变化，美联储可能降息及停止缩表将使流动性宽松，无论贵金 属还是工业金属价格都有望迎来上涨。 化工行业供给端压力预计逐步缓解，龙头企业凭借竞争实力实现新增量， 关注煤化工（华鲁恒升）、氨纶（华峰化学）、制冷剂等领域，以及润 滑油添加剂（瑞丰新材、利安隆）和高频高速树脂（盛泉、东财）等新 材料。 Q&A 如何看 ...