1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The near - month imports of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal are restricted, and oil mills are in a shutdown state, but the marginal supply increases with Australian rapeseed arrivals, and the long - term supply is expected to increase. The substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand for rapeseed meal. The rapeseed meal price may remain weak in the short term. [2] - The rapeseed oil market is also under pressure. The import of rapeseed is structurally tightened, and oil mills are mostly shut down, with the inventory in a de - stocking mode. However, the arrival of Australian rapeseed and the expected long - term supply increase, along with the sufficient supply and good substitution advantage of soybean oil, keep the demand for rapeseed oil mainly at a rigid level. The domestic rapeseed oil price is dragged down by the weak international rapeseed market and is expected to be in a weak and volatile state in the short term. [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures closing prices: The closing price of rapeseed oil (active contract) is 8945 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the closing price of rapeseed meal (active contract) is 2340 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan. The closing price of ICE rapeseed (active) is 609.2 Canadian dollars/ton, down 2.2 Canadian dollars; the closing price of rapeseed (active contract) is 5447 yuan/ton, up 58 yuan. [2] - Spreads and positions: The 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed oil is - 3 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan; the 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed meal is - 193 yuan/ton, down 64 yuan. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil is - 29391 lots, down 6389 lots; for rapeseed meal, it is - 67175 lots, up 13205 lots. [2] - Warehouse receipts: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 4006 sheets, up 670 sheets; the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts is 0, unchanged. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9500 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2400 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil is 9618.75 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the import cost of rapeseed is 7469.88 yuan/ton, down 28.46 yuan. The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - Basis and price differences: The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 555 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan; the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract is 60 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan. The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1120 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 1100 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 700 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production and imports: The global rapeseed production forecast is 92.27 million tons, up 1.31 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production is 13446 thousand tons, unchanged. The total rapeseed import volume is 0 tons, down 115300 tons. The import rapeseed crushing profit is 476 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan. [2] - Inventory and operation rate: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 0.1 million tons, up 0.1 million tons; the weekly operation rate of imported rapeseed is 0%, unchanged. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 140000 tons, down 20000 tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 200 tons, unchanged. The rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 322000 tons, down 17000 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 186100 tons, down 7500 tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 5500 tons, down 1500 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 248000 tons, up 14000 tons. [2] -提货量: The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 is 9000 tons, up 9000 tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 is 0 tons, down 4500 tons. [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly production of feed is 2977900 tons, up 20900 tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 427600 tons, down 67400 tons. [2] - Consumption: The monthly social retail sales of catering revenue is 605.7 billion yuan, up 85.8 billion yuan. [2] 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 16.25%, up 0.27%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 16.33%, up 0.35%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 14.94%, up 0.89%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 14.94%, up 0.89%. [2] - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 11.57%, up 0.65%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 12.12%, up 0.23%. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 13.07%, up 0.49%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 14.09%, up 0.09%. [2] 3.7 Industry News - On December 17 (Wednesday), ICE rapeseed futures fell again. The most actively traded March rapeseed futures contract fell 2.80 Canadian dollars, with a settlement price of 608.50 Canadian dollars per ton. [2] - During the US soybean export season, the supply is temporarily abundant, and Brazil has a high expected soybean yield. The US faces competition from cheaper Brazilian soybeans in the global export market. China's soybean purchases have slowed down recently, and the market is concerned about China's purchases of US soybeans. [2] - The Canadian Agricultural and Agri - Food Department (AAFC) raised the forecast of Canada's rapeseed ending inventory for the 2025/26 season by 450000 tons to 2950000 tons, higher than 1597000 tons in the previous year. [2] - The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is expected to finalize the mandatory biofuel blending regulations for 2026 and 2027 in the first quarter of next year. The high - frequency data shows that the exports of Malaysian palm oil from December 1 - 15 are still declining, and the inventory pressure will remain high in the short term. [2]