Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Since March, the domestic and foreign rapeseed markets have experienced a pattern of changing from strong to weak and internal differentiation. The short - term rapeseed market shows a pattern of "strong oil and weak meal". With China significantly reducing the import tariffs of Canadian rapeseed products, domestic rapeseed supply will be greatly supplemented. In the medium term, attention should be paid to the game between future supply increments and seasonal demand recovery [6][10] Group 3: Summary by Directory From Geopolitical Risks to Policy Implementation: International Rapeseed Experiences a Volatile Market - In March 2026, the international rapeseed market experienced a rise driven by geopolitical risks and a subsequent correction after policy implementation, showing a volatile trend. Affected by international oil prices and market sentiment, the ICE rapeseed May contract reached an eight - month high. However, after the U.S. renewable fuel blending obligation plan was announced, profit - taking occurred. Meanwhile, China's reduction of Canadian rapeseed product import tariffs is expected to significantly increase Canadian rapeseed exports to China [7] The Battle between Strong Reality and Weak Expectations: The Arrival of Rapeseed in Bulk is Imminent - In the domestic market, although the actual import of rapeseed in March was low and the inventory was at a low level, the expectation of concentrated arrivals in the future is strong. As of the week of March 20, the inventory of imported rapeseed at major ports was only 128,000 tons, a 15% decline from the previous week. The weekly crushing volume at coastal oil mills was only 23,000 tons. After the import tariff policy adjustment, a large number of Canadian rapeseed purchase shipments are scheduled from March to June, with a peak arrival expected starting from April. This will increase the output of rapeseed oil and meal. The market has an obvious expectation of increased supply, which exerts pressure on rapeseed meal prices. Rapeseed oil is relatively strong due to cost and low - inventory support, leading to a pattern of "strong oil and weak meal" [8] Weak Market Demand: Focus on Seasonal Transition and Policy Driving - In terms of demand, there is an expectation of seasonal transition. Rapeseed oil is in a typical consumption off - season, with weak procurement willingness from terminal catering and food processing enterprises. The weekly pick - up volume at coastal oil mills dropped to 340 tons, a significant decline from the previous week. The high international crude oil prices bring long - term expectations for biodiesel demand, but it is mainly an emotional boost before policy implementation. Rapeseed meal demand is weak as the aquaculture industry is in the early stage of seasonal recovery. Feed enterprises maintain low - inventory strategies, and the pick - up volume of rapeseed meal at oil mills remains at a low level of 910 tons. After April, as the temperature rises, the demand for aquaculture feed is expected to gradually start, which may improve the consumption of rapeseed meal. Rapeseed oil demand needs seasonal nodes like festival stocking or the implementation of biofuel policies for new drivers. Before the demand improves, the expectation of increased supply will suppress rapeseed prices [9][10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic vegetable oil sector showed high - level volatile movements this week. Market sentiment was dominated by the Middle East geopolitical situation and the sharp fluctuations in international crude oil prices. In the long - term, palm oil has entered a seasonal production - increasing cycle, and its export faces a risk of weakening. For soybean oil, the supply pressure remains, but demand in the biodiesel field is boosted. For rapeseed oil, the medium - and long - term supply is expected to be loose, but the current import crushing profit situation may affect future supply [72]. - The recommended operation strategy is to be cautious and wait - and - see, focusing on the implementation progress of the US biofuel policy, the USDA planting intention report, and the quarterly inventory report, and avoiding blind chasing of highs or bottom - fishing [73]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The domestic vegetable oil sector showed high - level volatile movements, with slight differentiation in the trends of different varieties. As of March 27, the closing prices of the soybean oil Y2605 contract, palm oil P2605 contract, and rapeseed oil OI2605 contract were 8,688 yuan/ton (weekly increase of 0.7%), 9,768 yuan/ton (weekly increase of 0.51%), and 9,877 yuan/ton (weekly increase of 0.01%) respectively [12]. - The Malaysian palm oil market also showed high - level volatile movements, with a cumulative increase of nearly 14.2% since March. As of March 27, the BMD crude palm oil futures main contract closed up 0.83% at 4,612 ringgit/ton [15]. - The CBOT soybeans and soybean oil showed an oscillating and strengthening trend. As of March 27 (US - China time), the CBOT soybeans May contract was at 1,159.5 cents/bushel (down 1.21%), and the CBOT soybean oil May contract was at 67.22 cents/pound (down 1.18%) [20]. 3.2 Fundamental Dynamics - The Ministry of Commerce imposed a 5.9% anti - dumping duty on imported rapeseed from Canada from March 1, 2026, for a period of 5 years, and suspended the additional discriminatory tariffs on some imported goods from Canada from March 1 to December 31, 2026, canceling the 100% anti - discriminatory tariff on imported Canadian rapeseed meal [6][20]. - Malaysia's February palm oil production was 1,284,699 tons (a 18.55% month - on - month decrease), exports were 1,127,605 tons (a 22.48% month - on - month decrease), imports were 76,276 tons (a 136.03% month - on - month increase), and inventory was 2,704,286 tons (a 3.94% month - on - month decrease) [6][21]. - From March 1 - 25, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production was estimated to have decreased by 11.21% month - on - month [6][21]. - The average expected soybean planting area in the US in 2026 is 85.549 million acres, and the soybean inventory on March 1, 2026, is expected to be 2.063 billion bushels, an 8% increase year - on - year [7][21]. - The estimated export volume of Malaysian palm oil from March 1 - 25, 2026, increased by 38.4% - 51% compared with the same period last month according to different survey agencies [7][8][22]. - Brazil's estimated soybean export volume in March is 15.87 million tons, lower than last week's forecast of 16.32 million tons [8][24]. 3.3 Domestic Oil Basis Changes - The basis of 24 - degree palm oil in the mainstream coastal markets showed low - level volatile recovery. As of March 27, the basis quotes in different regions varied [30]. - The basis of coastal soybean oil strengthened synchronously, and the regional differences converged. As of March 27, the basis quotes in different regions were provided [30]. - The basis of coastal rapeseed oil was basically stable. As of March 27, there was a regional differentiation with the East being stronger and the South being weaker [30]. 3.4 Supply - Demand Situation 3.4.1 Palm Oil Supply - Demand - In February, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased, exports declined, and inventory decreased but was still at a relatively high level. The profit of palm - based biodiesel was repaired, but the edible demand was under pressure, and the export outlook was not optimistic [34][38]. - From March 20 - 26, 4 new palm oil purchase ships were added in China, with different delivery schedules [39]. - As of March 20, 2026, the national key - area commercial palm oil inventory was 808,200 tons, a 4.01% month - on - month decrease and a 108.14% year - on - year increase [41]. 3.4.2 Soybean Oil Supply - Demand - The USDA's March supply - demand report slightly revised the 2025/26 global soybean supply - demand data. The global soybean supply pattern remained loose, and the domestic medium - and long - term soybean supply was also abundant [45]. - Near - term soybean meal fluctuations were affected by customs clearance and arrival issues, but the long - term supply was expected to be loose. After April, a large amount of Brazilian soybeans would arrive in China [49]. - As of the week of March 20, the actual soybean oil production was 378,200 tons, and the operating rate was 54.81%, a 1.07% month - on - month increase [51]. - As of March 20, the national commercial soybean oil inventory was 1.0537 million tons, a 2.29% month - on - month decrease and a 3.94% year - on - year increase [54]. 3.4.3 Rapeseed Oil Supply - Demand - The estimated arrival volume of imported rapeseed in coastal areas was increasing from March to May [58]. - As of the week of March 20, the rapeseed crushing volume and rapeseed oil production decreased. With the arrival of rapeseed purchase ships, production was expected to recover [60][62]. - As of March 26, the import crushing profit of Canadian rapeseed was slightly profitable in the spot market but inverted in the futures market. If the situation continued, it might affect future supply [65]. - As of March 20, the national imported rapeseed inventory was at a historical low and decreasing rapidly, while the rapeseed oil inventory increased slightly, and the unexecuted contracts increased, indicating strong downstream demand [70].

Report Summary 1. Core Views - The Iran war has disrupted US farmers' planting plans, leading to a decrease in corn planting area and an increase in soybean planting area [1]. - The Trump administration is providing $12 billion in aid to US farmers, and agricultural groups are urging Congress to approve additional assistance [1]. - The USDA will release its annual planting intention report, but the estimates may not fully account for the impact of the war [1]. - The Trump administration has finalized new biofuel blending mandates for the US refining industry, increasing the obligations for 2026 and 2027 [1]. - Malaysia's palm oil exports from March 1 - 25, 2026, increased by 50.42% compared to the same period last month, while its March 1 - 20, 2026, crude palm oil production decreased by 5.94% month - on - month [1]. - Expana maintains its forecast for the EU's 2026 rapeseed production at 20.8 million tons and raises its forecast for sunflower seed production to 10 million tons [1]. 2. Key Data - Analysts expect US corn planting area to drop to 94.371 million acres in 2026 from 98.788 million acres in 2025, and soybean planting area to rise to 85.549 million acres from 81.215 million acres in 2025 [1]. - The Trump administration's new biofuel blending mandates for 2026 and 2027 are 26.81 billion and 27.02 billion RINs respectively, a significant increase from the initial proposal of 24.02 billion gallons [1]. - Malaysia's palm oil exports from March 1 - 25, 2026, were 1.080898 million tons, compared to 718,603 tons in the same period last month [1]. - Malaysia's March 1 - 20, 2026, crude palm oil production decreased by 5.94% month - on - month, with Peninsular Malaysia down 3.61%, Sabah down 10.57%, Sarawak down 2.43%, and Borneo down 8.47% [1]. - Expana forecasts the EU's 2026 rapeseed production at 20.8 million tons and 2026/27 sunflower seed production at 10 million tons [1]. 3. Spot Prices | Date | Soybean Meal (Jiangsu) | Rapeseed Meal (Guangdong) | Soybean Oil (Jiangsu) | Palm Oil (Guangzhou) | Rapeseed Oil (Jiangsu) | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2026/03/23 | 3270 | 2420 | 9040 | - | 10500 | | 2026/03/24 | 3230 | 2400 | 8970 | 9600 | 10380 | | 2026/03/25 | 3190 | 2350 | 8860 | 9430 | 10220 | | 2026/03/26 | 3180 | 2350 | 8950 | 9560 | 10350 | | 2026/03/27 | 3160 | 2340 | 8990 | 9710 | 10380 | [1][7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For soybean meal, the near - end supply concern eases, and the price is in a volatile correction. The energy market is the key variable for soybean market pricing, and the cost of imported soybeans fluctuates with it and has support. The resolution of the Brazilian soybean customs - clearance issue leads to a volatile correction in the futures market. The soybean meal 05 contract tests the support of MA20. In the medium - to - long - term, two potential risks need attention: geopolitical situation easing and seasonal supply pressure from the concentrated arrival of Brazilian soybeans [4][6]. - For rapeseed meal, the market follows the volatile correction of meal products and may return to the fundamentals after the geopolitical conflict eases. The 05 contract is supported at MA20 [41]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Soybean Meal International Situation - The Sino - US talks are postponed, and the export demand for US soybeans is in doubt. Last week, CBOT soybeans fluctuated and corrected. If US soybeans fail to enter the Chinese market on a large scale, the soybean import demand will still fall on Brazil. The CNF quotation of Brazilian soybeans has risen, offsetting the decline of US soybeans. The energy market is the key variable for soybean market pricing, and the demand for US soybean oil is expected to support the CBOT soybean price [6]. USDA Report - The USDA March supply - demand report made no significant changes to the global soybean supply - demand data. The carry - over stock of US soybeans remains at 350 million bushels. The export item of US soybeans did not adjust for the possible purchases from China, with an export volume of 1.575 billion bushels, a year - on - year decrease of 16.31%. In South America, the 2025/26 annual output of Brazilian soybeans remains at 180 million tons, maintaining the expectation of a bumper harvest [7][8]. Brazilian Soybean Situation - The Brazilian soybean harvest is accelerating, and the expectation of a bumper harvest remains unchanged, with the CNF premium stable. As of March 14, the harvest progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 59.2%, higher than last week's 50.6% and the five - year average of 58.4%, but lower than last year's 69.8%. As of March 20, the total planned shipment volume of Brazilian soybeans to China at various ports was 8.538009 million tons, and the total shipped volume from Brazilian ports to China since March was 6.5357 million tons, an increase of 2.624315 million tons from last week [9][12]. Import Cost - The CNF quotation of Brazilian soybeans offsets the decline of US soybeans, and the import cost has slightly decreased. On March 20, the import cost of US Gulf soybeans was 4,571 yuan (Tianjin Port), a decrease of 197 yuan from March 13; that of Argentine soybeans was 3,763 yuan, a decrease of 111 yuan; and that of Brazilian soybeans was 3,817 yuan, a decrease of 85 yuan [14][17]. Chinese Policy and Import Procurement - China has relaxed the regulations on the weed content in Brazilian soybeans. The issue of customs clearance for imported soybeans will be resolved, and the spread between May and September contracts of soybean meal has declined. The near - month procurement of imported soybeans is completed, and the far - month procurement is gradually underway. As of March 17, the procurement progress for March was 100% (12.486 million tons), 87.28% for April (10.037 million tons), 49.69% for May (5.714 million tons), 34.9% for June (3.839 million tons), and 20.2% for July (1.98 million tons) [18][20][23]. Domestic Oil Mill and Feed Enterprise Situation - Oil mills' operation rate is relatively high. In the 12th week, the actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills was 1.9905 million tons, an increase of 0.0211 million tons from the previous week, and the actual operation rate was 54.81%. Feed enterprises are waiting and watching the high - priced market, making small - scale replenishments but with limited enthusiasm for building inventories. As of March 16, the soybean meal inventory was 627,300 tons, a decrease of 133,200 tons (17.51%) from last week and a decrease of 55,700 tons (8.16%) from the same period last year. As of March 20, the physical inventory of soybean meal in national feed enterprises was 8.82 days, an increase of 0.18 days from the previous period and 0.19 days from the same period last year [25][28][31]. Basis and Spread - The basis of the soybean meal 05 contract was 271 yuan/ton, compared with 202 yuan/ton in the same period last week. The spread between the May and September contracts of soybean meal was - 26 yuan/ton, compared with 102 yuan/ton in the same period last week [36]. 3.2. Rapeseed Meal International Situation - Last week, ICE rapeseed futures fluctuated. At the beginning of the week, affected by the decline of CBOT soybeans, ICE rapeseed fell. The energy market price is the key variable for the oilseed market pricing. The continuous conflict between the US and Iran has pushed up the prices of crude oil and diesel, and the vegetable oil market has risen following the bio - fuel market, supporting the rapeseed market. The settlement price of the rapeseed futures main contract on the weekend was 726.5 Canadian dollars, a decrease of 4.3 Canadian dollars (0.6%) from last week and an increase of 153.8 Canadian dollars (26.9%) from the same period last year [41][46]. Import and Supply - The purchase of imported Canadian rapeseed has resumed. The arrival in December 2023 is expected to be 455,000 tons. The arrival volume of rapeseed at major oil mills in March is about 195,000 tons. In the 12th week, the rapeseed inventory of oil mills was 128,000 tons. However, the cost is high, and the crushing profit is poor, resulting in a low operation rate of oil mills [47][48][50]. Oil Mill Operation - In the 12th week, the operation rate of rapeseed crushing plants was about 0.1%, and the rapeseed meal output was 13,100 tons [53]. Market Demand - It is the off - season of demand. The downstream transactions of rapeseed meal are few, and the pick - up volume has rebounded but is still at a low level compared with the same period. In the 12th week, the pick - up volume of rapeseed meal at coastal pressing plants was 9,100 tons, the spot transaction volume in the rapeseed meal market was 25,000 tons, and the far - month transaction volume was 2,000 tons [56][58]. Inventory Situation - In the 12th week, the rapeseed meal inventory of oil mills increased to 24,000 tons, and the granular rapeseed meal inventory at ports continued to decline, with a consumption volume of 23,000 tons and an inventory of 57,500 tons [61]. Basis and Spread - The basis of the rapeseed meal 05 contract was 237 yuan/ton, compared with 189 yuan/ton in the same period last week. The spread between the May and September contracts of rapeseed meal was - 40 yuan/ton, compared with 119 yuan/ton in the same period last week [67]. 3.3. Spread Summary - The oil - to - meal ratio of beans was 2.84, compared with 2.77 in the same period last weekend. The spread between the main contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 589 yuan/ton, compared with 537 yuan/ton in the same period last weekend [71].

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The rapeseed meal market is currently in a pattern of weak supply and demand. The cancellation of anti - discrimination tariffs on Canadian rapeseed meal and a significant reduction in Canadian rapeseed tariffs will lead to an inflow of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal into the domestic market, constraining the market with long - term supply pressure. Recently, rapeseed meal prices have fluctuated and declined from high levels, with large short - term fluctuations, and it is recommended to participate in short - term trading [2]. - For rapeseed oil, the domestic spot market has a weak trading atmosphere, and high prices suppress demand. The expected increase in the later imports of Canadian rapeseed adds long - term supply pressure. The recent market is trading on the driving force of biodiesel demand. Rapeseed oil futures prices have generally maintained a wide - range high - level shock recently, with increased short - term fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait and see or participate in short - term trading [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the active rapeseed oil contract was 9,840 yuan/ton, up 133 yuan; the closing price of the active rapeseed meal contract was 2,344 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the closing price of the active ICE rapeseed contract was 727.3 Canadian dollars/ton, up 3.8 Canadian dollars; the closing price of the active rapeseed contract was 5,849 yuan/ton, up 98 yuan [2]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The rapeseed oil inter - month spread (5 - 9) was 102 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan; the rapeseed meal inter - month spread (5 - 9) was - 78 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. - **Positions**: The position of the main rapeseed oil contract was 218,416 lots, up 1,535 lots; the position of the main rapeseed meal contract was 543,967 lots, down 11,589 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil was - 17,723 lots, up 7,193 lots; for rapeseed meal, it was - 163,583 lots, down 9,678 lots. The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts was 765, unchanged; the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts was 0, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,350 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 6,400 yuan/ton; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2,570 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil was 10,331.25 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; the import cost of rapeseed was 5,348.53 yuan/ton, up 12.54 yuan. The spot price of fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing was 8,960 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,650 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 3,280 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract was 510 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan; the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract was 226 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1,390 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 700 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 710 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Production and Imports**: The global rapeseed production forecast for the year was 95.02 million tons, down 0.15 million tons; the annual rapeseed production forecast was 13,446 thousand tons, unchanged. The total rapeseed import volume was 6.96 million tons, down 5.12 million tons. The import rapeseed crushing profit was - 72 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan [2]. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: The total rapeseed inventory of oil mills was 150,000 tons, down 25,000 tons; the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed was 6.13%, down 1.87 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Import Volumes**: The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil was 200,000 tons, down 50,000 tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal was 182,500 tons, down 82,500 tons [2]. - **Regional Inventories**: Coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 11,000 tons, up 6,000 tons; coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 24,000 tons, up 4,000 tons. East China rapeseed oil inventory was 270,000 tons, down 6,500 tons; East China rapeseed meal inventory was 53,000 tons, down 4,500 tons. Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory was 9,000 tons, up 4,000 tons; South China rapeseed meal inventory was 253,000 tons, down 49,000 tons [2]. - **Weekly提货量**: The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 was 15,300 tons, down 3,700 tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 was 21,800 tons, up 9,700 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - **Production**: The monthly production of feed was 30.086 million tons, up 307,000 tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil was 5.254 million tons [2]. - **Consumption**: The cumulative catering revenue in February was 102.64 billion yuan, up 45.26 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal was 22.83%, down 1.28 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 22.83%, down 1.27 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil was 19.61%, down 0.21 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 19.61%, down 0.21 percentage points [2]. - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 29.8%, up 0.86 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility was 21.33%, up 0.23 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 20.08%, up 0.99 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility was 18.89%, down 0.41 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - On March 25th, ICE rapeseed futures rose, driven by the US soybean oil futures despite the decline in crude oil prices. The most actively traded May rapeseed futures contract closed up 3.30 Canadian dollars at 727.20 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - As the South American soybean harvest progresses, the supply - side pressure is increasing, and the market's export expectations for US soybeans are frustrated. There are signs of a potential cease - fire between the US and Iran, but the geopolitical risk in the Middle East still remains, and the risk premium still supports the US soybean market [2]. - The cancellation of anti - discrimination tariffs on Canadian rapeseed meal and the reduction of Canadian rapeseed tariffs will lead to an inflow of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal into the domestic market. AAFC has adjusted the inventory estimates of Canadian rapeseed for different years [2]. - After Cargill stopped exporting Brazilian soybeans to China, China has relaxed the zero - tolerance policy for weeds in stranded soybean cargoes, alleviating the market's concerns about the near - term soybean supply [2]. - The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East remains uncertain, and international oil prices are oscillating at high levels, driving the expected demand for vegetable oil biodiesel. The export of Malaysian palm oil in the first 25 days of March increased significantly, and the end - of - month inventory is expected to decline. The market expects the export of Indonesian palm oil to tighten, supporting the palm oil price [2]. 3.8 Key Points to Watch - The weekly rapeseed operating rate and the rapeseed oil and meal inventories in various regions released by Myagric on Mondays, as well as the evolution of the Middle East situation and the biofuel policies of the US and Indonesia [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term rapeseed meal futures prices may maintain a weak and volatile pattern. If there is no significant increase in demand, the futures prices still have room to decline. Attention should be paid to the subsequent arrival rhythm of rapeseed, the recovery of aquaculture demand, and the fluctuations in the international commodity market [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - On March 23, the opening price of the rapeseed meal main contract (RM.CZC) on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 2,414 yuan/ton, with an intraday high of 2,438 yuan/ton, a low of 2,397 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 2,399 yuan/ton, a 1.6% decrease from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 606,303 lots, and the open interest was 570,722 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - On March 23, the average domestic spot price of rapeseed meal was 2,663.16 yuan/ton, and the basis for the closing price of the corresponding futures main contract was 264.16 yuan/ton. The high spot premium reflects the short - term tight supply on the spot side, while the futures side has already reflected the expectation of increased long - term supply in advance. The current basis structure has reversed, indicating that the market's expectation of medium - and long - term supply - demand relaxation has been fully incorporated into the futures price [4][5] 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Supply side**: In the 32nd week of the 2025/26 fiscal year in Canada, the export volume of rapeseed rebounded to 290,000 tons. Although the cumulative annual exports were still 25.2% lower year - on - year, with the easing of China - Canada trade relations, the expected arrival volume of imported rapeseed is expected to increase. On March 20, the May contract of ICE rapeseed futures fell slightly by 1.8 Canadian dollars/ton to 726.5 Canadian dollars/ton, and the support from the import cost side weakened slightly [6] - **Demand side**: The current aquaculture season has not fully started, and the spot transactions of rapeseed meal are mainly for rigid demand, with overall weak demand. On March 23, the average domestic spot price of rapeseed meal decreased by 7 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the decline in coastal areas was higher than that in inland areas [6] - **Linkage effect**: The export expectation of US soybeans has weakened, and the loading of South American soybeans has gradually recovered. The price of soybean meal is running weakly. The current spot price difference between rapeseed meal and soybean meal is - 692 yuan/ton, which is in a relatively low range in recent years, further squeezing the upward space of rapeseed meal prices [6] 3.4 Market Outlook - Short - term rapeseed meal futures prices may maintain a weak and volatile pattern. If there is no significant increase in demand, the futures prices still have room to decline. Attention should be paid to the subsequent arrival rhythm of rapeseed, the recovery of aquaculture demand, and the fluctuations in the international commodity market [7]

Group 1: Report's Core Information - Brazil's soybean export volume in March 2026 is expected to be 1,587 tons, lower than last week's forecast of 1,632 tons; the soybean meal export volume is expected to reach 244 tons, also down from last week's forecast of 266 tons [1] - From March 1 - 20, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil product export volume was 889,128 tons, a 61.02% increase compared to the same period last month [1] - Brazil's Paraná state's 2025/26 soybean harvest area has reached 82% of the planted area, 12 percentage points higher than the previous week but behind the 90% progress of the same period last year [1] - In the 2025/26 season, the global rapeseed trade volume is expected to drop to a four - year low of 1,680 tons, while the crushing volume may reach a record high of nearly 8,850 tons [1][2] Group 2: Price and Basis Information Spot Prices | Date | Soybean Meal in Jiangsu | Rapeseed Meal in Guangdong | Soybean Oil in Jiangsu | Palm Oil in Guangzhou | Rapeseed Oil in Jiangsu | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2026/03/18 | 3300 | 2460 | 8830 | 9610 | 10280 | | 2026/03/19 | 3300 | 2460 | 8910 | 9740 | 10410 | | 2026/03/20 | 3300 | 2440 | 8950 | - | 10430 | | 2026/03/23 | 3270 | 2420 | 9040 | - | 10500 | | 2026/03/24 | 3230 | 2400 | 8970 | 9600 | 10380 | [3] Protein Meal Basis and Oil Basis - The report mentions protein meal basis and oil basis, but no specific data is provided [3] Oil and Oilseed Futures Spread - The report mentions oil and oilseed futures spread, but no specific content is provided [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - For rapeseed meal, the cancellation of anti - discrimination tariffs on Canadian rapeseed meal and the significant reduction of Canadian rapeseed tariffs will increase the supply pressure in the far - month. However, the market has already reacted in advance, and the overall impact is limited. Recently, rapeseed meal has fluctuated and declined from high levels, with large short - term fluctuations, and short - term participation is recommended [2]. - For rapeseed oil, the continuous geopolitical conflict in the Middle East and the sharp rise in international oil prices have promoted the expected demand for vegetable oil biodiesel. The export of Malaysian palm oil has increased significantly in the first 20 days of March, and the production has decreased slightly month - on - month, with the end - of - month inventory expected to decline. The domestic rapeseed oil futures price has generally maintained a high - level shock recently, with short - term fluctuations [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Futures closing prices: The closing price of rapeseed oil (active contract) is 9950 yuan/ton, up 74 yuan; the closing price of rapeseed meal (active contract) is 2399 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan. The closing price of ICE rapeseed (active) is 726.1 Canadian dollars/ton, down 2.1 Canadian dollars; the closing price of rapeseed (active contract) is 5898 yuan/ton, up 79 yuan [2]. - Month - to - month spreads: The rapeseed oil month - to - month spread (5 - 9) is 119 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; the rapeseed meal month - to - month spread (5 - 9) is - 56 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan [2]. - Main contract positions: The main contract position of rapeseed oil is 239709 lots, up 2276 lots; the main contract position of rapeseed meal is 570722 lots, down 7656 lots [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: The net long position of rapeseed oil is - 22168 lots, down 4498 lots; the net long position of rapeseed meal is - 138882 lots, down 11735 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantities: The warehouse receipt quantity of rapeseed oil is 805 sheets, unchanged; the warehouse receipt quantity of rapeseed meal is 0 sheets, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10420 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2640 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil is 10401.25 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the import cost price of imported rapeseed is 5344.36 yuan/ton, down 29.43 yuan. The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 6400 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Basis: The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 470 yuan/ton, down 84 yuan; the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract is 241 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan [2]. - Substitute spot prices: The spot price of grade - 4 soybean oil in Nanjing is 8980 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the spot price of palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangdong is 9920 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3320 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2]. - Price differences: The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1440 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 500 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 680 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production: The predicted annual production of rapeseed is 95.02 million tons, down 0.15 million tons; the annual predicted production of rapeseed is 13446 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - Import quantities: The total import quantity of rapeseed in the current month is 5.56 million tons, up 5.36 million tons; the import quantity of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month is 20 million tons, down 5 million tons; the import quantity of rapeseed meal in the current month is 18.25 million tons, down 8.25 million tons [2]. - Pressing profit: The import rapeseed disk pressing profit is 26 yuan/ton, down 73 yuan [2]. - Inventory and开机率: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 17.5 million tons, down 2.5 million tons; the weekly开机率 of imported rapeseed is 6.13%, down 1.87% [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 0.5 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 2.4 million tons, up 0.4 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 27.65 million tons, up 2.1 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 5.75 million tons, down 2.3 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 0.5 million tons, up 0.5 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 30.2 million tons, up 1.9 million tons [2]. -提货量: The weekly提货量 of rapeseed oil is 0.52 million tons, up 0.7 million tons; the weekly提货量 of rapeseed meal is 1.04 million tons, up 0.5 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly production of feed is 3008.6 million tons, up 30.7 million tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 525.4 million tons, up 60.6 million tons [2]. - Consumption: The monthly social consumer goods retail total of catering revenue is 5738 billion yuan, down 319 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 24.11%, down 1.84%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 24.1%, down 1.85%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 19.82%, up 0.67%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 19.82%, up 0.67% [2]. - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 28.94%, up 0.25%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 21.1%, up 0.03%. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 19.09%, down 0.6%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 19.3%, down 0.28% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - On March 20 (Friday), the ICE rapeseed futures fluctuated and closed lower, but were still close to the key support level near the top of the long - term uptrend. The most actively traded May rapeseed futures contract closed down 1.80 Canadian dollars, with a settlement price of 726.50 Canadian dollars per ton, and the contract fell 1.8% this week [2]. - The continuous conflict in the Middle East has led to a continued strengthening of international oil prices, boosting the price of the US soybean market. However, as the South American soybean harvest progresses, the supply - side pressure is gradually increasing, and the competitive advantage of Brazilian soybeans is good, which has frustrated the market's export expectations for US soybeans, continuing to restrain the price of the US soybean market [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The ICE rapeseed futures closed lower on March 18, possibly due to profit - taking. The commodity market is affected by the Iran war. The recent rapeseed meal futures have been oscillating at a high level with large short - term fluctuations, and short - term participation is recommended. The rapeseed oil futures have generally maintained a high - level oscillation recently, with increased short - term fluctuations [2]. - For rapeseed meal, the cancellation of anti - discriminatory tariffs on Canadian rapeseed meal and the significant reduction of Canadian rapeseed tariffs will increase the supply pressure in the far - month. However, the market has already reacted in advance, and the overall impact is limited. The supply pressure of soybeans is increasing with the progress of South American soybean harvesting, which restricts the price of US soybeans [2]. - For rapeseed oil, the ongoing Middle - East geopolitical conflict drives up international oil prices, promoting the expected demand for vegetable oil in biodiesel. The export of Malaysian palm oil has increased significantly in March, and the inventory at the end of the month is expected to decline. The Indonesian government may impose additional taxes on palm oil, which is expected to tighten palm oil exports. Domestically, the spot market for oils and fats has a weak trading atmosphere, and the expected increase in the import of Canadian rapeseed in the later period adds supply pressure in the far - month [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil futures is 9854 yuan/ton, up 74 yuan; the closing price of the active contract of rapeseed meal futures is 2443 yuan/ton, unchanged. The 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed oil is 146 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed meal is 5 yuan, down 11 yuan. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed oil is - 16849 lots, up 1880 lots; that of rapeseed meal is - 129361 lots, up 15965 lots. The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 805 sheets, down 100 sheets; that of rapeseed meal is 286 sheets, down 300 sheets. The closing price of the active ICE rapeseed futures is 726.7 Canadian dollars/ton, down 2.7 Canadian dollars; the closing price of the active contract of rapeseed futures is 5852 yuan/ton, up 74 yuan [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10480 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2680 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil is 10461.25 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan. The import cost of rapeseed is 5361.22 yuan/ton, down 27.75 yuan. The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 6400 yuan/ton, unchanged. The oil - meal ratio is 3.87, up 0.01. The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 626 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan; the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract is 237 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2]. Substitute Spot Prices - The spot price of grade - four soybean oil in Nanjing is 8880 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1600 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan. The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9870 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 610 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3360 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 680 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The global rapeseed production forecast for the year is 95.17 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production is 13446 thousand tons, unchanged. The total monthly import volume of rapeseed is 5.56 million tons, up 5.36 million tons. The import rapeseed crushing profit on the disk is 36 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan. The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 17.5 million tons, down 2.5 million tons. The weekly startup rate of imported rapeseed is 8%, unchanged. The monthly import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil is 22 million tons, up 5 million tons; the monthly import volume of rapeseed meal is 23.82 million tons, up 2.35 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 0.5 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 2 million tons, up 0.5 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 27.65 million tons, up 2.1 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 5.75 million tons, down 2.3 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 0.5 million tons, up 0.5 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 30.2 million tons, up 1.9 million tons. The weekly delivery volume of rapeseed oil is 0.52 million tons, up 0.7 million tons; the weekly delivery volume of rapeseed meal is 1.04 million tons, up 0.5 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed is 3008.6 million tons, up 30.7 million tons. The monthly total retail sales of consumer goods in the catering industry is 5738 billion yuan, down 319 billion yuan. The monthly output of edible vegetable oil is 525.4 million tons, up 60.6 million tons [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 25.58%, down 1.9%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 25.76%, down 1.72%. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 29.21%, up 1.09%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 21.08%, up 0.24%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 19%, down 0.9%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 19%, down 0.9%. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 19.64%, up 0.05%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 19.85%, up 0.03% [2]. Industry News - On March 18 (Wednesday), ICE rapeseed futures closed lower, possibly due to profit - taking. The futures price fluctuated between gains and losses during the day because the commodity market was continuously affected by the Iran war. The most actively traded May rapeseed contract closed down 3.30 Canadian dollars, with a settlement price of 726.20 Canadian dollars per ton. The attacks on Middle - East energy infrastructure increased the risk of further disruption of energy supply in the region, driving up oil prices and boosting the price of the US soybean market. However, with the progress of South American soybean harvesting, the supply - side pressure is gradually increasing, and the competitive advantage of Brazilian soybeans is good, which frustrated the market's export expectations for US soybeans and continued to restrict the price of the US soybean market [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cancellation of anti - discrimination tariffs on Canadian rapeseed meal and the significant reduction of Canadian rapeseed tariffs will increase the supply pressure in the far - month market, but the market has already reacted in advance, so the overall impact is limited [2]. - The end of the anti - dumping final ruling on Canadian rapeseed will increase imports in the later period, adding far - month supply pressure, but the market has anticipated this, and the impact on the futures price is limited [2]. - Affected by the geopolitical situation and the possible tightening of Indonesian exports, the rapeseed oil futures price follows the palm oil to strengthen, with increased short - term fluctuations [2]. - Affected by the decline of US soybeans, rapeseed meal closed down significantly today, with large short - term fluctuations, and short - term participation is recommended [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of rapeseed oil futures (active contract) is 9948 yuan/ton, up 127 yuan; the closing price of rapeseed meal futures (active contract) is 2482 yuan/ton, down 109 yuan [2]. - The rapeseed oil monthly spread (5 - 9) is 119 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; the rapeseed meal monthly spread (5 - 9) is 336 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed oil is - 13461 lots, up 819 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed meal is - 147961 lots, down 47734 lots [2]. - The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 1125 sheets, unchanged; the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts is 2261 sheets, down 50 sheets [2]. - The closing price of ICE rapeseed futures (active) is 739.1 Canadian dollars/ton, up 5.4 Canadian dollars; the closing price of rapeseed futures (active contract) is 6103 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10540 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 6400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2680 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan; the oil - meal ratio is 3.87, up 0.17 [2]. - The average price of rapeseed oil is 10521.25 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the import cost price of imported rapeseed is 5455.57 yuan/ton, up 11.07 yuan [2]. - The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 592 yuan/ton, down 77 yuan; the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract is 198 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [2]. - The spot price of grade - four soybean oil in Nanjing is 8950 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1590 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2]. 3.3 Substitute Spot Prices - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 10040 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 500 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan [2]. - The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3320 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 640 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan [2]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - The global rapeseed production forecast for the year is 95.17 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; the annual forecast value of rapeseed production is 13446 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - The total rapeseed import volume in the current month is 5.56 million tons, up 5.36 million tons; the import rapeseed crushing profit on the disk is - 47 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan [2]. - The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 200,000 tons, unchanged; the weekly startup rate of imported rapeseed is 8%, up 4.8 percentage points [2]. - The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month is 220,000 tons, up 50,000 tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal in the current month is 238,200 tons, up 23,500 tons [2]. 3.5 Industry Situation - The rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas is 6,000 tons, down 4,000 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in coastal areas is 15,000 tons, up 8,500 tons [2]. - The rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 255,500 tons, down 5,500 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 80,500 tons, down 12,400 tons [2]. - The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 0 tons, down 8,000 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 283,000 tons, down 15,000 tons [2]. - The weekly提货量 of rapeseed oil is - 180 tons, down 180 tons; the weekly提货量 of rapeseed meal is 540 tons, up 540 tons [2]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed is 3,008.6 million tons, up 30.7 million tons; the monthly total retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 573.8 billion yuan, down 31.9 billion yuan [2]. - The monthly output of edible vegetable oil is 525.4 million tons, up 60.6 million tons [2]. 3.7 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 35.12%, up 6.41 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 35.13%, up 6.42 percentage points [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 28.16%, up 6.34 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 20.86%, up 2.12 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 23.28%, down 0.66 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 23.28%, down 0.66 percentage points [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 18.82%, up 0.23 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 19.91%, up 0.14 percentage points [2]. 3.8 Industry News - Statistics Canada released the annual oilseed crushing statistics, showing that in 2025, the rapeseed crushing volume of Canadian oilseed crushing enterprises reached a record high of 11.6 million tons, an increase of 1.6% compared with 2024, and it was the third consecutive year of record - high. The record - high crushing volume was due to the record rapeseed harvest in 2025 (13.3% higher than in 2024) and a decrease in exports (12.5% lower than in 2024) [2]. - Affected by the escalation of the geopolitical situation and the soaring crude oil price, the US soybean biofuel policy will boost the demand for soybean oil. Under the strong support of US soybean crushing, the US soybean market has risen. Recently, the market has mainly focused on the impact of geopolitical conflicts [2]. - The planting area of Canadian rapeseed in 2026 is expected to increase by 1% to 21.8 million acres, lower than the average expectation of 22.3 million acres among traders [2]. - The Canadian Ministry of Agriculture predicts that the rapeseed production in 2026/27 will be 19.2 million tons, lower than 21.8 million tons in the previous year [2]. - The Indonesian Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs said that if the government needs to reduce the impact of rising international oil prices on the budget, it may impose additional taxes on specific commodities such as palm oil, and the market expects that Indonesian palm oil exports may tighten [2].