| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 一季度进口预估同比下降，叠加美豆进口成本抬升，国内现货价格表现抗跌。1 月 | | | | 美农报告公布临近，市场预计单产会有下调，昨日最新美豆周度出口数据同比继续 | | 豆粕 | | 下降，但下降幅度有很大缓解，难以对美豆构成进一步利空打压。最新市场对于 1 | | ★ | 短线震荡 | 月美农报告预计将会调低美豆出口数据，带来期末库存调增风险预期，美豆收跌， | | | | 叠加国内主力合约盘面套保利润显现，昨日国内豆粕反弹高位回落。1 月报告公布 | | | | 前，豆粕暂维持偏震荡行情。关注下周二凌晨 1 月报告指引。 | | 菜粕 | | 菜粕现货库存压力缓解，比豆粕相比表现出一定的抗跌性。但加拿大总理面临访华， | | | 短线下跌 | 打压市场看多情绪。昨日菜粕大幅下跌。关注 1 月美农报告、澳籽压榨和进口政策、 | | ★ | | 中加贸易后续进展。若中加谈判未果，仍可关注逢低看多机会。 | | 棕榈油 | | 受豆油，菜油端利空因素拖累，昨日棕榈油冲高回落。预计近两日维持震荡行情。 | | | 短 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 数据日报 国贸期货研究院 农产品研究中心 黄向岚 投资咨询号: Z0021658 从业资格号:F03110419 | 指标 | | 1月8日 | 涨跌 | | | | 豆粕主力合约基差(张家港) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | ===== 16/17 | == | == | ==== 19/20 | == | | | 大连 | 458 | 69 | 2500 2000 | == | == | == | · 24/25 | 25/26 | | 43%豆粕现货基差 | 天津 | 418 | 59 | 1000 | | | | | | | | | | | 1500 | | | | | | | | 日照 | 378 | 49 | | | | | | | | | 张家港 | 368 | 59 | -900 | | | | | | | (对主力合约) | | | | | | | 05/21 06/21 07/22 08/22 09/2 ...

农产品日报 | 2026-01-09 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2605合约2782元/吨，较前日变动-29元/吨，幅度-1.03%；菜粕2605合约2358元/吨，较前 日变动-61元/吨，幅度-2.52%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格3150元/吨，较前日变动+10元/吨，现货基差 M05+368，较前日变动+39；江苏地区豆粕现货3090元/吨，较前日变动-20元/吨，现货基差M05+308，较前日变动 +9；广东地区豆粕现货价格3110元/吨，较前日变动跌-30元/吨，现货基差M05+328，较前日变动-1。福建地区菜粕 现货价格2590元/吨，较前日变动-30元/吨，现货基差RM05+232，较前日变动+31。 近期市场资讯，巴西外贸秘书处数据显示，2025年12月巴西大豆出口量338.3万吨，高于去年同期的200.6万吨；日 均出口量15.4万吨，同比增长68.6%。西全国谷物出口商协会预计，2026年巴西大豆出口量将达到创纪录的1.12亿 吨，高于2025年的1.09亿吨；其中对华出口将降至7700万吨，低于2025年的8700万吨。 市场分析 当前下游油厂大豆和豆粕库存均维持 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 王晶 Z0023598 2026年1月9日 苹果 现值 前值 涨跌 涨跌幅 单位 苹果2605 (主力) 9531 9583 -52 -0.54% 苹果2610合约 8451 8474 -23 -0.27% 元/吨 基美 –1331 –1383 52 3.76% 苹果5-10价差 1080 1109 -29 –2.61% 槎龙果品批发市场到货 15 36 -21 –58.33% 江门水果批发市场到货 18 8 -10 -55.56% 车 下桥水果批发市场到货 25 12 -13 -52.00% 期货持仓量 133273 144574 –11301 –7.82% नेह 全国冷库库存 733.56 720.90 -12.66 –1.73% 万吨 厂库交割利润 336 384 -48 -12.50% 元/吨 盘面利润 –1525 –1434 –91 –6.35% 主产区现货成交价格 纸袋80#: 市场价: 栖霞 (日) 定 景 二级: 纸袋80#:市场价:蓬莱区(日) 市场价:沂源(日) 经 袋 75#: 市场价: 静宁 (日) 8元/斤 6元/斤 4元/斤 2 ...

投研服务中心 2026.1 @2019 Maike Futures 豆粕 国内供应仍显宽松 国内供应仍显宽松，等待报告 指引 www.mkqh.com 国内供应仍显宽松 - 国际方面： 目前中方对美豆仍保持13%进口关税，商业性采购仍难以展开。中方对美豆采购进度不如预期，出口 乐观情绪逐渐降温。1月USDA报告看点在于美豆出口量是否会相应下调，进而令库消比回升。CBOT 大豆盘面震荡回落。巴西大豆播种工作进入尾声，部分地区已开启收割，盘面暂无天气升水，丰产预 期维持。 - 国内供需： 国内大豆库存高位，油厂豆粕现货供应仍较为充足。下游饲料企业库存较高需求有限，提货一般。油 厂豆粕继续累库，库存仍在高位。一季度国内进口大豆远期供应缺口部分修复，需观察美豆采购计划。 海关收紧到港政策的预期引发阶段性供应担忧，但在大豆、豆粕库存高位的情况下，盘面情绪易有回 落风险。 - 结论及观点： 南美大豆即将上市，CBOT大豆盘面承压震荡回落。盘面交易重心仍在国际大豆贸易流向，关注美豆 出口进度能否支撑CBOT大豆。国内大豆库存高位，油厂豆粕现货供应仍较为充足，但一季度进口大 豆存在结构性紧缺预期。蛋白粕市场震荡运行，豆粕05 ...

研究所 农产品研发报告 粕类日报 2026 年 1 月 8 日 【粕类日报】供应有所好转 价格整体回落 研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号： F3045719 投资咨询证号： Z0015458 联系方式： chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.c om.cn | 粕类价格日报 | | | | | 2026/1/8 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | | | | 现货基差 | | | 品 种 涨 跌 | 合 约 | 收盘价 | 地 区 | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 涨 跌 | | -25 豆粕 | 0 1 | 3146 | 天津 | 380 | 370 | 1 0 | | -29 | 0 5 | 2782 | 东莞 | 340 | 330 | 1 0 | | -13 | 0 9 | 2875 | 张家港 | 300 | 290 | 1 0 | | | | | 日照 | 310 | 300 | 1 0 | | -87 菜粕 | 0 1 | 2590 | 南通 | 132 | 8 1 | 5 1 | | -61 | 0 5 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1 Palm Oil - Affected by a mix of bullish and bearish fundamentals, palm oil futures prices will continue to trade in a range. In the domestic market, Dalian palm oil futures are consolidating, with short - term prices holding above 8,500 yuan. Attention should be paid to whether it can effectively break through the moving average resistance and whether Malaysian palm oil can hold above 4,000 ringgit [1]. 2.2 Soybean Oil - Uncertainty in the US biodiesel policy makes CBOT soybean oil vulnerable to the movements of related varieties. Although the purchase of US soybeans by Cofco this week boosted CBOT soybean prices, global soybean supply remains ample, keeping CBOT soybeans under pressure. In the domestic market, the pre - Spring Festival stocking period and reduced soybean imports are positive factors, but CBOT soybeans may still correct after a short - term rebound, and the May contract of Dalian soybean oil faces resistance around 7,950 - 8,000 yuan [1]. 2.3 Rapeseed Oil - With limited available domestic rapeseed oil in the spot market, the market is closely watching whether COFCO will start operations on the 10th. Supported by tight spot supply, the downside for rapeseed oil in the short term is limited, and the overall trend will be a wide - range shock adjustment [1]. 2.4 Red Dates - Downstream demand is on a need - to - buy basis, with more buyers inspecting goods, but there is no significant improvement in trading volume. Spot prices are weakly stable. Driven by positive sentiment in the commodity market, futures prices rebounded, and the basis narrowed. The generation of new - season warehouse receipts is accelerating. The pre - Spring Festival stocking and actual inventory - reduction progress should be monitored. In the short term, there is no obvious fundamental driver, and futures prices will fluctuate and consolidate [2]. 2.5 Corn - In the northeast, corn trading is average, and prices are stable, while in the north port, prices declined slightly due to increased arrivals. In the north China region, farmers are reluctant to sell, and the number of trucks arriving at deep - processing plants is low. However, due to profit losses, plants are not willing to raise prices, so prices are generally stable. On the demand side, low inventory at the north port supports prices, but deep - processing plants' profit losses limit their acceptance of high - priced corn, and feed companies have sufficient inventory. Policy - wise, the targeted auction of imported corn and the start of competitive sales supplement market supply but have limited short - term impact. In the short term, the reluctance to sell and downstream restocking support the futures market, but selling pressure and policy - driven supply limit the upside. Attention should be paid to policy implementation and farmers' selling attitudes [5]. 2.6 Sugar - As the Brazilian sugarcane crushing season nears its end, its influence on the raw sugar market is diminishing. The market focus has shifted to the northern hemisphere's sugarcane production. India's sugar production in the 2025/26 season is increasing, while Thailand's production is still down year - on - year. In the short term, prices are expected to trade in the range of 14.5 - 15.5 cents per pound. In the domestic market, pre - Spring Festival stocking has boosted sales, and December's Guangxi production and sales data met expectations. However, as it is the peak of the sugar - making season, market participants are cautious, and price increases face resistance. Sugar prices are expected to remain in a low - level range - bound pattern [8][9]. 2.7 Apples - With the approaching Spring Festival stocking season, the trading atmosphere in the apple market has warmed up, and the number of trucks arriving at wholesale markets has increased. High - quality apples are in short supply and prices are firm, but high prices may suppress consumption, and competition from other fruits (such as citrus) has put pressure on ordinary apples' inventory. Futures prices have rebounded, and delivery profits have improved. Attention should be paid to inventory - reduction progress [13]. 2.8 Cotton - ICE cotton futures declined due to falling crude oil prices and a stronger US dollar. In the US cotton - growing areas, rising temperatures, reduced precipitation, and an increasing drought index are in line with the winter La Nina weather pattern. USDA export sales have returned to normal levels, and shipments have slowed. In the domestic market, processing enterprises are holding firm on prices, and the basis is strong. The core drivers are the expected reduction in cotton planting in Xinjiang and downstream restocking, but low - cost foreign cotton and the off - season demand limit price increases. In the short term, cotton prices are expected to remain bullish, but there is a risk of correction after continuous price increases [16]. 2.9 Eggs - Based on previous chick sales data, the number of laying hens entering the laying period in January is expected to be lower than the number of old hens leaving the flock, potentially reducing the laying - hen inventory and easing supply pressure. After continuous price increases, the downstream market is resistant to high - priced eggs, and all sectors are actively selling. Egg prices in the production areas are mixed. Market circulation is smooth, and inventory levels are low. As the traditional consumption peak approaches, downstream stocking demand is rising, but due to relatively ample supply, the main contract is expected to trade in a low - level range [18]. 2.10 Pigs - Spot pig prices have returned to a range - bound pattern. After the New Year's Day, market demand has declined significantly. In the north, pig sales have decreased, but high prices have dampened slaughterhouses' purchasing enthusiasm. In the south, demand has dropped sharply, providing little support for prices. Some second - fattening operations are still buying, but overall enthusiasm is low due to high current prices and weak future expectations. The market is betting on pre - Spring Festival consumption, but pigs are expected to be sold in mid - to - late January, and the overall supply in January is expected to be ample. Futures prices were previously strong due to market sentiment, but the upside is limited, and there will be pressure later [19]. 2.11 Meal - Affected by funds and sentiment, US soybean prices are strong, but the global supply - demand situation remains loose, and the expected high - yield in South America continues to suppress prices. The market is waiting for the USDA supply - demand report next Monday for new trading guidance. In the domestic market, the supply of soybeans and soybean meal remains ample, but the expected future tightness supports the 3 - 5 spread and basis. The expected low arrivals in the first quarter are uncertain due to auctions and arrival schedules. The downside for soybean meal is limited, and the upside is mainly affected by policy. In the short term, with positive macro sentiment, the futures market will be range - bound and bullish [21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price and Spread Data 3.1.1 Oils - **Soybean Oil**: On January 7, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8,460 yuan, the May 2026 futures price (Y2605) was 7,958 yuan, up 0.58% from the previous day, and the basis was 502 yuan, down 8.39% [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,570 yuan, the May 2026 futures price (P2605) was 8,562 yuan, up 0.73%, and the basis was 8 yuan, down 88.57%. The import cost at Guangzhou Port for May was 8,930 yuan, down 0.18%, and the import profit was - 368 yuan, up 17.58% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,900 yuan, the May 2026 futures price (OI605) was 9,130 yuan, down 0.38%, and the basis was 802 yuan, up 4.55% [1]. - **Spreads**: The 05 - 09 spread for the three oils was 150 yuan, up 8.70%; for palm oil, it was 110 yuan, down 6.78%; for rapeseed oil, it was 14 yuan, down 73.08%. The spot soybean - palm oil spread was - 110 yuan, unchanged; the 2605 spread was - 604 yuan, down 2.72%. The spot rapeseed - soybean oil spread was 1,440 yuan, unchanged; the 2605 spread was 1,137 yuan, down 6.65% [1]. 3.1.2 Red Dates - On January 8, the price of the main contract (2605) was 9,150 yuan/ton, up 1.95%. The 5 - 7 spread was - 45 yuan/ton, up 35.71%, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 180 yuan/ton, up 18.18%. The basis for Cangzhou's top - grade red dates was - 75 yuan/ton, up 60%. The total number of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 3,008, up 1.72% [2]. 3.1.3 Corn - The price of the March 2026 corn contract (2603) was 2,248 yuan/ton, up 1.17%. The basis was 72 yuan, down 30.10%. The 3 - 7 spread was - 36 yuan, up 21.74%. The north - south trading profit was - 21 yuan, down 31.25%, and the import profit was 267 yuan, up 3.71% [5]. 3.1.4 Sugar - The May 2026 sugar futures price (2605) was 5,281 yuan/ton, up 0.42%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 12 yuan, up 25%. The spot price in Nanning was 5,350 yuan/ton, up 0.19%, and the basis was 69 yuan, down 14.81%. Nationwide, the cumulative sugar production was 105 million tons, down 23.24%, and the cumulative sales were 35 million tons, down 42.53% [8]. 3.1.5 Apples - The price of the main contract (2605) was 8,583 yuan/ton, down 0.32%. The 5 - 10 spread was 1,109 yuan, up 2.40%. The basis was - 1,383 yuan, up 2.19%. The total number of trucks arriving at three major fruit wholesale markets increased, and the national cold - storage inventory was 733.56 million tons, down 1.41% [10]. 3.1.6 Cotton - The May 2026 cotton futures price (2605) was 15,035 yuan/ton, up 1.21%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 190 yuan, down 2.70%. The Xinjiang ex - factory price of 3128B cotton was 15,574 yuan/ton, up 0.56%. The commercial inventory was 534.9 million tons, up 14.2%, and the industrial inventory was 98.39 million tons, up 4.7% [16]. 3.1.7 Eggs - The March 2026 egg futures price (03) was 3,011 yuan/500 kg, up 0.37%. The basis was 86 yuan/500 kg, up 69.26%. The 3 - 4 spread was - 253 yuan, down 1.20%. The price of egg - laying chicks was 2.8 yuan per chick, unchanged, and the price of culled hens was 3.95 yuan per catty, up 2.07% [18]. 3.1.8 Pigs - The price of the May 2026 pig futures contract (2605) was 12,260 yuan/ton, up 0.04%. The basis of the main contract was 1,215 yuan, up 6.58%. The 3 - 5 spread was - 475 yuan, down 6.74%. The spot price in Henan was 13,000 yuan/ton, up 0.39%. The self - breeding profit per pig was - 35 yuan, up 73.41%, and the number of fertile sows was 3,990 million heads, down 1.12% [19]. 3.1.9 Meal - For soybean meal, the spot price in Jiangsu was 3,120 yuan, up 0.65%. The May 2026 futures price (M2605) was 2,811 yuan, up 1.26%, and the basis was 300 yuan, down 4.63%. The import crushing profit for Brazilian soybeans for February shipment was 157 yuan, up 45.4%. For rapeseed meal, the spot price in Jiangsu was 2,490 yuan, up 2.05%, and the May 2026 futures price (RM2605) was 2,419 yuan, up 1.21% [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report presents a comprehensive analysis of various industries including chemicals, agriculture, energy, non - ferrous metals, and financial options. It provides price data, fundamental analysis, and trading strategies for different commodities and financial instruments. For the stock market, it suggests considering non - silver large finance, non - ferrous metals, and technology growth sectors for investment [10][14][17]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Chemicals - On January 8, 2026, among domestic chemical products, prices of some products like coking coal, coke, and plastic increased, while others such as natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, and PTA decreased. For example, coking coal rose from 1,164.00 to 1,215.00 with a 4.381% increase, and natural rubber dropped from 1,6180.00 to 16,135.00 with a - 0.278% decrease [4]. 3.2 Agriculture - **Sugar**: On January 7, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued its low - level rebound. With supply pressure from Brazil and India's potential over - production, but cost support in China, sugar prices are expected to fluctuate between 5200 - 5400 yuan. A strategy of high - selling and low - buying in this range is recommended [10]. - **Corn**: On January 7, corn futures prices broke through the previous trading range. With supply pressure and demand support coexisting, the short - term trend is strong, and investors can consider buying on dips, with support at 2230 yuan [10]. - **Peanuts**: On January 7, peanut futures prices oscillated narrowly. The market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and it is recommended to wait and see or conduct range trading [10]. - **Eggs**: The current egg price increase is mainly driven by sentiment and short - term stocking. It is expected to continue rising in the short - term but at a slower pace, and then gradually stabilize. The futures market is oscillating strongly, and the inter - month reverse spread should be held [10]. - **Cotton**: On January 7, cotton futures prices rose significantly. With strengthened supply reduction expectations and improved demand, the market is running strongly, but investors need to beware of short - term corrections, with support at 14800 - 14900 yuan/ton [10]. 3.3 Energy and Chemicals - **Caustic Soda**: The short - term spot market for caustic soda is relatively stable, but the overall supply is in excess. The price is expected to weaken steadily, and the impact of market sentiment changes should be noted [11]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The port trade enterprise quotes for coking coal have risen, but the transaction volume is average. Coke's downward price expectation has decreased. The short - term trend is oscillating strongly [11]. - **Log**: On January 7, log futures prices broke through the previous pressure level. With a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, investors can consider buying on dips after the price correction, with support at 780 [12]. - **Pulp**: On January 7, pulp futures prices showed a high - level decline. With strong supply - side cost support and weak demand, the price is supported by cost but limited by demand. It is recommended to wait and see at the 5600 - yuan pressure level [12]. - **Double - offset Paper**: On January 7, double - offset paper futures prices oscillated downward. The market maintains a weak supply - demand balance. It is recommended to conduct range trading, with support at 4100 yuan and pressure at 4400 yuan [12]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper and Aluminum**: On January 7, copper prices were boosted by expectations of interest rate cuts and supply concerns. Aluminum prices are expected to be supported by policies in the long - term. However, on Wednesday, the prices of copper and aluminum showed a high - level decline, and investors need to beware of macro risks [13][14]. - **Alumina**: The supply of alumina is in excess, and the price rebound is driven by market sentiment. It is not advisable to chase the high price [14]. - **Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices rose at night. The spot market trading improved, and the prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, but the upward trend may slow down [14]. - **Ferroalloys**: On Wednesday, ferroalloys followed the upward trend of coking coal and coke. With the improvement of the market atmosphere, they are expected to be strong in the short - term, and industrial selling hedging can wait and see [14]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On January 7, lithium carbonate futures prices fluctuated strongly. With potential supply increase and demand turning points, investors need to beware of high - level corrections and should be cautious when chasing the high price [14][16]. 3.5 Option Finance - **Stock Index Futures**: On January 7, the three major A - share indexes rose slightly, but the stock index futures showed a mixed performance. For investors, trend investors can focus on the strength - weakness arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors can sell straddles to short volatility. The stock market may face profit - taking pressure in the short - term [16]. - **Investment Directions**: It is recommended to consider non - silver large finance, non - ferrous metals, and technology growth sectors such as storage chips, commercial aerospace, and AI applications. For ordinary investors, it is advisable to allocate a certain amount of long - term stock index futures contracts or broad - based ETFs, and then choose some industry ETFs or individual stocks to obtain excess returns [17][18].

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 www.itf.com.cn ITG国贸期货 数据日报 ----- 20/21 ----- 21/22 ------22/23 ------23/24 24/25 25/26 RM1-5 1000 258 11 800 价差数据 豆粕-菜粕 656 36 现货价差(广东) 200 豆粕-菜粕 392 6 盘面价差(主力) 07/27 08/22 10/22 10/23 11/23 12/24 01/24 02/24 升贴水-连续月 产地 美元兑人民币汇率 涨跌 盘面榨利(元/吨) (美分/蒲) 157. 00 品显 6. 9594 158 0 2025年大豆CNF升贴水走势图-连续月 (美分/蒲式耳) 2025年进口大亨盘面毛利(元/吨) 一巴西2月 一 巴西3月 巴西1月 ====== 巴西4月 · 巴西1月 巴西2月 一巴西3月 ===== 巴西4月 ----- 巴西8月 ----- 巴西6月 ----- 巴西7月 ----- 巴西8月 ==== 巴西6月 ====== 巴西7月 ====== 巴西5月 ==== 巴西5月 400 250 国际数据 200 2 ...

数据日报 国贸期货研究院 投资咨询号: Z0021658 农产品研究中心 黄向岚 从业资格号: F03110419 目前美豆的2025/26年度期末库存预估仍处于2.9亿蒲式耳的水平，美豆库消比处于6.7%的偏低水平,对CBOT美豆下方预期带来一定 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 2026/1/8 | 指标 | | 1月7日 | 涨跌 | | | | 豆粕主力合约基差(张家港) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 大连 | 389 | -15 | 2500 | ===== 16/17 == | ===== 17/18 == | ----- 18/19 == | ----- 19/20 - 24/25 | == 25/26 | | | 天津 | 359 | -15 | 2000 1500 | | | | | | | 43%豆粕现货基差 (对主力合约) | 日照 | 329 | 5 | 1000 500 | | | | | | | | 张家港 | 309 | -15 | -50 ...