【粕类周报】粕类供应宽松 盘面震荡回落 银河农产品 研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号：F3045719 投资咨询证号：Z0015458 目录 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 | | | 第三章 基本面数据变化 8 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 本周美豆盘面呈现冲高回落态势，主要原因仍然在于市场缺乏更多利多因素，盘面上涨幅度较大，对于利多体现比较充分。后续美豆市场重点影响 在于出口变化，如果美豆出口表现一般，后续可能有一定回落压力。南美旧作供应压力整体维持中性水平，巴西前期出口以及压榨维持良好，后续 出口空间可能有所减少，但紧张情况可能相对比较有限。近期巴西产区天气以干燥为主，后续降雨可能有所改善，作物播种受影响有限。阿根廷前 期需求表现良好，近期供应压力有所好转。新作播种开始逐步推进，但预计影响相对有限。总体来看，当前国际大 ...

数据日报 国贸期货研究院 农产品研究中心 黄向岚 投资咨询号:Z0021658 从业资格号:F03110419 2025/11/24 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 | 指标 | | 11月21日 | 涨跌 | | | | 豆粕主力合约基差(张家港) | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 大连 | 78 | -5 | 1600 | == == | | ===== 19/20 == | == - 24/25 | | == - 25/26 | | 43%豆粕现货基差 | 天津 日照 | 38 | | 1200 800 400 | | | | | | | | | | -12 | 5 | | | | | | | | | | 张家港 | -12 | | | | | | | | | | (对主力合约) | | | | 400 01/21 | 02/21 | 03/24 04/24 | 05/25 06/25 07/26 08/26 09/26 | | 10/27 | 11 ...

01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 区间震荡，关注南美天气 国贸期货 农产品研究中心 2025-11-24 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 国贸期货研究院 农产品研究中心：黄向岚 从业资格证号：F03110419 投资咨询证号：Z0021658 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 【粕类周报】 粕类：区间震荡，关注南美天气 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | （1）USDA11月供需报告将2025/26年度美豆单产由53.5蒲式耳/英亩下调至53蒲式耳/英亩，将压榨维持25.55亿蒲不变，将出口由16.85亿蒲下调至16.35亿 蒲，结转由3亿蒲下调至2.9亿蒲，利多不及预期。（2）根据CONAB数据，预测25/26巴西新作产量达到1.776亿吨。截至11月15日，巴西大豆播种率为 | | 供给 | 偏空 | 69.0%，上周为58.4%，去年同期为73.8%，五年均值为67.2%。阿根廷农牧渔业国秘处公布的数据显示，截至11月13日，阿根廷2025/26年度大豆 ...

| 1.57% | 硅铁 (SF603) | 5472 | 66.40% | 折算价:72硅铁合格块:内蒙-天津仓单 | ટર્ટક | 86 | 184 | 3.28% | 硅罐 (SM601) | 5790 | 5606 | 59.30% | 折算价:6517硅锰:内蒙-湖北仓单 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | HRB40020mm: 上海 | 螺纹钢 (RB2601) | 3220 | 163 | 5.33% | 66.60% | 3057 | 热卷 (HC2601) | 0.00% | 17.90% | 3270 | 3270 | 0 | Q235B: 4.75mm: 上海 | | | | | | 855 | 786 | ୧୦ | 8.79% | 54.20% | 折算价:62.5%巴混粉(BRBF):淡水河谷:日照港 | 铁矿石 (12601) | 21 | 1.27% | 1615 | 1 ...

| 田脂 | *业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年11月24日 | | | | 王凌桂 | Z0019938 | | 臣湘 | | | | | | | | | 11月21日 | 11月20日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 现价 | 江苏一级 | 8470 | 8570 | -100 | -1.17% | | 期价 | Y2601 | 8190 | 8224 | -34 | -0.41% | | 星差 | Y2601 | 280 | 346 | -୧୧ | -19.08% | | 现货墓差报价 | 江苏1月 | 01+270 | 01+270 | 0 | - | | 仓单 | | 24625 | 24627 | -2 | -0.01% | | 棕榈油 | | | | | | | | | 11月21日 | 11月20日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 现价 | 广东24度 | 8470 | 8670 | -200 | -2.31% | | 期价 | P2601 | 8550 | ...

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The report presents recent data and trends in the agricultural commodities market, including soybean, palm oil, and related products, which can help investors understand the current market situation and potential investment opportunities [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean - The U.S. soybean crush volume in August was 198 million bushels (5.94 million tons), slightly higher than the analysts' forecast of 196.9 million bushels [1] - Brazil's 2025/26 soybean planting rate reached 79.61%, lower than the same period last year but higher than the 2023/24 season and the five - year average. Irregular rainfall in most regions may lead to lower yields [1] Palm Oil - Malaysia's palm oil product exports from November 1 - 20, 2025, were 471,222 tons, a 40.6% decrease from the same period last month [1] Import Profits - The report provides historical data on the import profits of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil from 2016 - 2025 for July and August [1] Spot Prices - Spot prices of various agricultural products such as rapeseed meal, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil in different regions from November 17 - 21, 2025, are presented [1] Basis - The report shows the basis data of protein meals (soybean meal and rapeseed meal) and oils (soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil) in different months and regions over multiple seasons [1] Price Spreads - Seasonal price spreads of various agricultural products, including soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil, are provided, which can help investors analyze market trends and potential trading opportunities [1]

| | 1、据船运调查机构ITS数据显示，马来西亚11月1日至20日棕榈油出口量为831005吨，环比上月同 | | --- | --- | | | 期下降20.5%。2、据美国农业部(USDA)网站11月20日消息，民间出口商报告向中国出口销售 | | 行业 | 462000吨大豆和132000吨小麦，2025/2026市场年度付运。 | | 信息 | | | | 蛋白粕：夜盘豆菜粕偏强运行，usda供需报告下调25/26年度美豆单产预估至53蒲式耳/蒲,由此美 | | | 豆产量下降至42.53亿蒲，最终美豆期末库存预估为2.9亿蒲，9月报告预估为3亿蒲，产量和库存 | | | 均下降从数据上看为利多。但由于此前市场对于报告调整力度预期偏高，而实际报告数据利多不 | | | 足。但近期公布的数据来看，美豆压榨需求强劲，根据NOPA数据显示10月压榨大豆2.27亿蒲式 | | | 耳，较9月增长15.1%，较去年同期增长13.9%；但由于近期美豆期价上涨较多因此出现一定回调。 | | | 国内豆粕仍维持宽松格局，库存处于高位，预计连粕短期跟随美豆调整为主。 | | 评论 | 油脂：夜盘豆棕油偏弱运行，菜油震 ...

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 11 月 24 日星期一 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-11-24） | | | | 铁矿：供应方面，海外铁矿发运大幅增加，外矿发运量环比增加 447.4 万 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 吨至 3516.4 万吨，不过国内港口铁矿到港量延续回落。日均铁水产量环 | | | | | 比回落 0.6 万吨至 236.28 万吨，河北地区停产钢厂复产，本期铁水减量不 | | | 铁矿石 | 震荡 | 明显。需求核心仍在地产，新开工已回落至 2005 年水平，内需疲弱难改。 | | | | | 港口铁矿石库存小幅回落，仍处于 8 个月高位。铁矿石供需过剩格局难以 | | | | | 扭转，钢厂利润再度挤压，减产检修规模或进一步扩大，但目前钢厂的利 | | | | | 润以及累库水平还不足以自发性减产，短期负反馈概率不大，铁矿价格高 | | | | | 位震荡为主。 | | | | | 煤焦：受外蒙一亿的进口目标消息影响，叠加供暖季保供会议召开，市场 | | | 煤焦 | 震荡 | 担 ...

豆粕周报 2025 年 11 月 24 日 供应较为宽松 连粕高位回落 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 焦鹏飞 从业资格号：F03122184 投资咨询号：Z0023260 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 11 ⚫ 上周，CBOT美豆1月合约涨4收于1126.5美分/蒲式耳，涨 幅0.36%；豆粕01合约跌80收于3012元/吨，跌幅2.59%； 华南豆粕现货跌50收于2990元/吨，跌幅1.64%；菜粕01 合约跌59收于2431元/吨，跌幅2.37%；广西菜粕现货跌 80收于2510元/吨，跌幅3.09%。 ⚫ 美豆10月份压榨量超预期，以及出口乐观预期，外盘周 初大幅走 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the US employment data shows significant divergence, and the performance of NVIDIA's AI business has restored market risk appetite. The Fed's October meeting minutes revealed serious differences, and the change of the October non - farm report schedule has led to a lack of key data for the December interest - rate decision. Domestically, the economic fundamentals are cooling marginally, but the policy remains firm, and the market's expectation of policy intensification is rising [2]. - The spot pressure of the container shipping European line continues, and the futures price fluctuates lower. The market is currently mixed with long and short factors, and the short - term volatility may intensify. It is expected to maintain a low - level shock in the short term [8][9][10]. - For precious metals, the uncertainty of the Fed's December interest rate cut increases, and it is expected to continue to oscillate and consolidate in the short term. Although the medium - and long - term prices are expected to rise, the short - term trend is unclear [14][15][17]. - For copper, the uncertainty of the Fed's December interest rate cut increases, and the driving force for copper price increase weakens. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of [86000, 87000] [18][20][21]. - For the aluminum industry chain, aluminum is expected to oscillate at a high level, alumina is expected to run weakly, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to oscillate at a high level [22]. - Zinc is expected to oscillate narrowly, and the nickel - stainless steel market should be wary of callbacks in the unilateral downward range and pay attention to option opportunities [22][24][25]. - Tin is expected to oscillate narrowly, and it is recommended to enter the market on dips [25][26]. - The risk of a decline in lithium carbonate prices still exists, and the near - month contracts are under pressure. It is expected to show a "wide - range shock and weak" operating characteristic in the range of 83000 - 93000 yuan/ton in the next two weeks [27]. - The fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon are weak, and they are expected to oscillate widely. The industrial silicon futures price is likely to maintain an oscillating and weak pattern in the short term [27][28][29]. - Lead is expected to oscillate, and there is support below [30]. - For steel products, the overall finished products are supported by raw material costs below, but the upward drive is suppressed by inventory. It is expected to oscillate in the range, with rebar in the range of 2900 - 3200 and hot - rolled coil in the range of 3100 - 3400 [31][32]. - Iron ore prices continue to oscillate widely. It is recommended to wait for the basis to repair and the market sentiment to improve before considering shorting at high prices [33][34]. - For coking coal and coke, the support for coking coal is loosening, and the expectation of price cuts is increasing. The coking coal 01 contract is under pressure in the short term, while the 05 contract has medium - and long - term long - allocation potential [34][35]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to oscillate weakly due to high inventory and weak demand [36][37]. - The crude oil market is affected by macro and geopolitical negatives, and it is expected to oscillate in the range of 60 - 65 in the short and medium term [38][39][40]. - The valuation of LPG is being repaired, and attention should be paid to the profit of PDH and the progress of the Russia - Ukraine issue [41][42]. - For PTA - PX, the speculation on blending for oil is weakening. It is necessary to pay attention to the implementation of maintenance plans and the actual dynamics of blending for oil. Consider short - term callbacks and long - term positions [42][43][45]. - For MEG - bottle chips, it is too early to bottom - fish, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of selling call options on rebounds [46][47][48]. - The upward height of methanol 01 is limited. It is recommended to hold the previous short - call positions and consider 12 - 1 and 1 - 5 reverse spreads [48][49]. - The downward space of PP is limited, and it is expected to maintain a low - level shock pattern [50][52][53]. - PE is expected to continue the low - level shock pattern, and a selling option strategy can be considered [54][55][56]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the market sentiment is significantly boosted in the short term, but the domestic pure benzene fundamentals are still weak. Do not chase high prices in the medium and long term [56][57][58]. - For fuel oil, the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking has rebounded after a sharp decline, but it is still bearish in the future; the low - sulfur fuel oil cracking is weakening, and it is recommended to wait and see [58][59]. - The bottom space of asphalt is not large, and attention should be paid to the winter storage policy. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [60][61]. - Rubber and 20 - rubber fell after reaching the upper limit of the range, and attention should be paid to the revision of the 20 - rubber futures contract and delivery rules [61]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: Domestic policies remain firm. Overseas, the US employment data is divided, and the Fed's attitude towards interest rate cuts is inconsistent. The market is concerned about the November employment data and the appointment of the Fed chairman. The RMB exchange rate is expected to "oscillate and build a bottom, with the center slowly declining" [1][2][3]. - **Stock Index**: The dovish remarks of Fed officials have increased the expectation of interest rate cuts, which may support the stock index in the short term. However, due to the tense Sino - Japanese relations and the lack of policy news, the stock index is expected to oscillate [4][5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The mid - term long positions should be held. Although there are some negative factors, the impact on the bond market is mainly short - term sentiment, and the substantial negative impact is limited [6]. - **Container Shipping European Line**: The spot index has weakened again, and the shipping companies' price - holding efforts have not been effective. The market is mixed with long and short factors, and it is expected to maintain a low - level shock in the short term [8][9][10]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver**: The uncertainty of the Fed's December interest rate cut increases, and the precious metals are expected to continue to oscillate and consolidate in the short term. The long - term price is expected to rise, but attention should be paid to the 60 - day moving average [14][15][17]. - **Copper**: The uncertainty of the Fed's December interest rate cut increases, and the driving force for copper price increase weakens. The downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, and it is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range [18][20][21]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to oscillate at a high level, alumina is expected to run weakly, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to oscillate at a high level. Attention should be paid to the Fed's interest rate decision and the fundamentals of each link [21][22]. - **Zinc**: It is expected to oscillate narrowly. The reduction of TC in November has increased the willingness of smelters to cut production, and the inventory has decreased. Attention should be paid to exports and the macro situation [22][23][24]. - **Nickel, Stainless Steel**: They are in a unilateral downward range, and attention should be paid to callbacks and option opportunities. The cost of nickel - iron has collapsed, and the downstream demand for stainless steel is weak [24][25]. - **Tin**: It is expected to oscillate narrowly. The supply of concentrates is tight, and it is recommended to enter the market on dips [25][26]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The risk of a decline still exists, and the near - month contracts are under pressure. The supply of lithium ore is expected to increase, and the downstream demand may decline seasonally [27]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: The fundamentals are weak, and they are expected to oscillate widely. The industrial silicon futures price is likely to follow the price fluctuations of related varieties and maintain an oscillating and weak pattern [27][28][29]. - **Lead**: It is expected to oscillate, and there is support below. The raw materials for smelting are tight, and the cost of recycled lead provides support [30]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: They are expected to oscillate in the range, with the lower limit supported by raw material costs and the upper limit suppressed by inventory. Attention should be paid to the de - stocking speed and downstream consumption [31][32]. - **Iron Ore**: The price continues to oscillate widely. The decline of coking coal price may support the iron ore price. It is recommended to wait for the basis to repair before shorting at high prices [33][34]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: The support for coking coal is loosening, and the expectation of price cuts is increasing. The coking coal 01 contract is under pressure in the short term, while the 05 contract has medium - and long - term long - allocation potential [34][35]. - **Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese**: They are expected to oscillate weakly due to high inventory and weak demand. The production is expected to decline, and de - stocking may depend on production cuts [36][37]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The market is affected by macro and geopolitical negatives, and it is expected to oscillate in the range of 60 - 65 in the short and medium term. Attention should be paid to the changes in macro and geopolitical factors [38][39][40]. - **LPG**: The valuation is being repaired. The supply is increasing slightly, and the demand for PDH is in a loss state. Attention should be paid to the profit and the Russia - Ukraine issue [41][42]. - **PTA - PX**: The speculation on blending for oil is weakening. It is necessary to pay attention to the implementation of maintenance plans and the actual dynamics of blending for oil. Consider short - term callbacks and long - term positions [42][43][45]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: It is too early to bottom - fish, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of selling call options on rebounds. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is stable in the short term [46][47][48]. - **Methanol**: The upward height of 01 is limited. The port pressure is increasing, and the inland is de - stocking. It is recommended to hold short - call positions and consider reverse spreads [48][49]. - **PP**: The downward space is limited, and it is expected to maintain a low - level shock pattern. The supply pressure is relieved, and the demand growth is slowing down [50][52][53]. - **PE**: It is expected to continue the low - level shock pattern. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak, especially with the end of the agricultural film peak season. A selling option strategy can be considered [54][55][56]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: The market sentiment is significantly boosted in the short term, but the domestic pure benzene fundamentals are still weak. Do not chase high prices in the medium and long term [56][57][58]. - **Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur fuel oil cracking has rebounded after a sharp decline, but it is still bearish in the future; the low - sulfur fuel oil cracking is weakening, and it is recommended to wait and see [58][59]. - **Asphalt**: The bottom space is not large, and attention should be paid to the winter storage policy. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. The supply has decreased, and the demand is gradually weakening [60][61]. - **Rubber & 20 - Rubber**: They fell after reaching the upper limit of the range. Attention should be paid to the revision of the 20 - rubber futures contract and delivery rules [61].