Core Insights - The article provides a brief introduction to the "China Green Methanol Industry Report" published by TrendBank, highlighting the growth and potential of the green methanol sector in China [2]. Group 1: Current Market Status - As of August 2025, there are a total of 220 green methanol projects that have been completed, are under construction, or are planned in China [5]. - Since 2025, 38 green methanol projects have been initiated, with a total production capacity of approximately 480,000 tons per year for the ongoing projects [5]. - The number of green methanol fuel-powered vessels in China reached 78 by June 2025, including various types of ships, which is expected to create an additional demand of nearly 400,000 tons of methanol fuel by 2028 [5]. Group 2: Production Cost and Capacity Forecast - The estimated production cost of green methanol through biomass gasification and hydrogen addition is approximately 4,900 RMB per ton, with operational costs being the key variable influencing this cost [3]. - The operational costs are primarily driven by biomass raw material costs, which exceed 50%, followed by electricity costs at 33% [3]. - A conservative estimate suggests that by 2028, China's green methanol production capacity will exceed 5 million tons per year, leading to a potential oversupply of approximately 4.6 million tons when considering the additional demand from fuel-powered vessels [5].

Core Insights - The article discusses the "Tiaonan Biomass Methanol Project" by Shanghai Electric, highlighting its economic viability and the growing market for green methanol in China [2][5]. Group 1: Project Overview - The Tiaonan project is expected to generate an annual revenue of approximately 360 million RMB from its main and by-products [3]. - The project utilizes biomass gasification to produce methanol, with a current estimated production cost of 4,900 RMB per ton [3]. - The green methanol price under the Tiaonan project is set at 840 EUR per ton, equivalent to about 7,031 RMB [3]. Group 2: Market and Capacity - As of August 2025, there are 220 green methanol projects in China, with 38 projects either in production or under construction, totaling an estimated capacity of 4.8 million tons per year [5]. - By 2028, the conservative estimate for China's green methanol production capacity is projected to exceed 5 million tons per year [5]. Group 3: Technical and Economic Analysis - The operational costs are critical in determining the overall cost of green methanol, with biomass raw material costs exceeding 50% and electricity costs accounting for 33% of the total [3]. - The report includes a comprehensive analysis of different technical routes for methanol production and their associated costs [8]. Group 4: Environmental Impact - The project emphasizes the importance of green methanol certification and evaluates the lifecycle carbon emissions associated with the Tiaonan project [8]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The article outlines the competitive landscape for green methanol in China and provides forecasts for the market's future growth [9].