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生猪价格回落
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供应压力继续增加,现货回落明显
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 10:43
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The supply pressure of the pig market continues to increase, with a significant decline in spot prices. Futures prices are also under pressure and are expected to continue to decline. The follow - up spot and futures prices of pigs may still face downward pressure due to high supply [2][5] - The trading strategy suggests shorting near - month contracts, conducting an LH15 reverse spread, and taking a wait - and - see approach for options [6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Price - The average price of live pigs across the country dropped from 11.19 yuan/kg yesterday to 11.05 yuan/kg today, a decrease of 0.14 yuan/kg. The prices in various regions showed a general downward trend, with significant drops in some areas such as Shandong (down 0.41 yuan/kg) and Jiangsu (down 0.48 yuan/kg) [2] Futures Price - Futures prices also declined. For example, LH01 dropped from 12825 yuan to 12165 yuan, a decrease of 660 yuan; LH03 dropped from 12480 yuan to 11970 yuan, a decrease of 510 yuan [2] Piglet and Sow Prices - Piglet prices decreased from 212 yuan last week to 183 yuan this week, a decrease of 29 yuan. Sow prices dropped from 1570 yuan to 1563 yuan, a decrease of 7 yuan [2] Contract Spreads - LH7 - 9 spread decreased from - 535 to - 700, a decrease of 165; LH9 - 1 spread increased from 1205 to 1700, an increase of 495; LH9 - 11 spread increased from 1675 to 2270, an increase of 595; LH11 - 1 spread decreased from - 470 to - 570, a decrease of 100 [2] Slaughter Volume - The slaughter volume increased from 152586 heads yesterday to 152651 heads today, an increase of 65 heads [2] Size Pig Price Spreads - The spread between standard pigs and medium - sized pigs increased from 0.4 to 0.44, an increase of 0.04; the spread between large pigs and medium - sized pigs increased from 0.37 to 0.46, an increase of 0.09 [2] Spot Breeding Profits - The self - breeding and self - raising profit decreased from - 24.44 yuan to - 74.11 yuan, a decrease of 49.66 yuan; the profit from purchasing piglets decreased from - 199.31 yuan to - 236.57 yuan, a decrease of 37.25 yuan [2]