| 周小球 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | wuhao8@gtht.com | 报告导读： （1）本周市场回顾（11.24-11.30） 现货市场，生猪价格弱势震荡。河南 20KG 仔猪价格 20.9 元/公斤（上周 20.9 元/公斤），本周河南 生猪价格 11.38 元/公斤（上周 11.73 元/公斤），全国 50KG 二元母猪价格 1548 元/头（上周 1548 元/ 头）。供应端，周内集团企业顺势增量，散户抛售意愿提升，供应偏宽松；需求端，降温后消费整体增 量，南北均有消费提振。根据卓创资讯数据，本周全国出栏平均体重 124.62KG（上周 124.74KG），出栏 均重环比下降 0.1%。 期货市场，生猪期货价格偏强震荡。本周生猪期货 LH2601 合约最高价为 11605 元/吨，最低价为 11300 元/吨，收盘价为 11465 元/吨（上周同期 11350 元/吨）。基差方面，LH2601 合约基差为-80 元/ 吨（上周同期 380 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - For soybeans, the domestic supply has significant pressure with soybean inventories at the highest level in recent years. In the medium - term, the global soybean supply is expected to remain loose, suggesting a strategy of selling on rebounds. In the short - term, due to the US's tariff threats and no improvement in US soybean imports, prices will mainly fluctuate within a range [2][3]. - For oils, the low inventories of vegetable oils in India and Southeast Asian producing areas, the US biodiesel policy draft boosting soybean oil demand, and the expected decline in exportable volumes from Indonesia due to increasing biodiesel consumption support the price center of oils. In the medium - term, a strategy of buying on dips can be considered when the inventories in consuming and producing areas are not fully accumulated and there is no negative feedback in demand. In the short - term, due to the impact of the trade war on market sentiment, it is advisable to wait and see [5][7]. - For sugar, the sugar production data in the second half of September in the central - southern region of Brazil is bearish but in line with expectations. In the new 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, major northern hemisphere producers are expected to increase production. With the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil at a historical high, a bearish view is maintained, and it is recommended to sell on rallies in the fourth quarter [8][9]. - For cotton, due to the resurgence of Sino - US trade conflicts and weak demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season, along with the expected high yield in the new season and strong selling hedging pressure, the short - term cotton price is likely to decline [11][12]. - For eggs, after the holiday, there are multiple bearish factors such as large supply, low consumption, and wet and cold weather. The current market sentiment is pessimistic, and egg prices have returned to the low point of the rainy season. In the short - term, a bearish strategy for near - term contracts is recommended. In the medium - term, prices may rebound due to stocking demand, and in the long - term, it is advisable to sell on rebounds [14][16]. - For pigs, in the fourth quarter, the theoretical supply pressure is large, and the current breeding profit has turned negative. The near - term futures premium is being squeezed out. However, considering the early price decline this year, risks before the Spring Festival have been partially released. It is recommended to reduce short positions in near - term contracts and consider positive spreads for the 13 - contract after the spot price stabilizes, while maintaining a reverse spread strategy for long - term contracts [17][18]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybeans and Protein Meals - **Market Information**: Overnight, CBOT soybeans fluctuated weakly due to concerns about Sino - US trade relations. On Wednesday, the domestic soybean meal spot price rose by 10 yuan/ton, with the price in East China at around 2910 yuan/ton. The soybean meal inventory continued to decline as the soybean arrival at ports was large and the operating rate during the National Day holiday decreased. MYSTEEL estimated that the domestic soybean crushing volume of oil mills this week would be 2.1674 million tons. The IBGE's October monthly report showed that the expected total soybean planting area in Brazil this year is 47.7 million hectares, an increase of 0.1% from last month's forecast and 3.6% from last year [2]. - **Strategy**: In the medium - term, sell on rebounds; in the short - term, expect range - bound fluctuations [3]. Oils - **Market Information**: From October 1 - 10, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 9.86% - 19.37% compared to the same period last month, and the exports in the first 15 days increased by 12.3% - 16.2%. In September, India's total vegetable oil imports were 1.639743 million tons, slightly lower than in August. Indonesia plans to raise the crude palm oil export tax from 10% to 15%. On Wednesday, domestic oils fluctuated. The international palm oil supply - demand is currently balanced, with a tightening expectation in the first quarter of next year. The domestic spot basis is stable at a low level [5]. - **Strategy**: In the medium - term, buy on dips; in the short - term, wait and see [7]. Sugar - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated narrowly. The spot prices of sugar in various regions decreased. As of October 14, 13 sugar mills in Xinjiang and 11 in Inner Mongolia had started operation. The sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the second half of September is expected to reach 3.05 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.7% [8]. - **Strategy**: Sell on rallies in the fourth quarter [9]. Cotton - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated narrowly. The spot price of cotton decreased. As of October 10, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.4%, and the weaving mill operating rate was 37.6%, both lower than the same period last year and the five - year average. The cotton commercial inventory was 1.16 million tons, lower than the same period last year and the five - year average. From October 9 - 12, the average purchase price of machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang increased compared to the holiday period but decreased year - on - year [11]. - **Strategy**: Expect short - term price decline [12]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg price was stable or rising. The average price in the main producing areas rose by 0.02 yuan to 2.78 yuan/jin. The market supply was normal, and the purchasing enthusiasm of traders increased [14]. - **Strategy**: Bearish for near - term contracts in the short - term, potential medium - term rebound, and sell on rebounds in the long - term [16]. Pigs - **Market Information**: The domestic pig price mainly rose. The demand from secondary fattening and slaughter increased, and the market trading activity was high. The breeding side still intended to raise prices [17]. - **Strategy**: Reduce short positions in near - term contracts, consider positive spreads for the 13 - contract after spot price stabilization, and maintain reverse spread strategy for long - term contracts [18].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The supply pressure of the pig market continues to increase, with a significant decline in spot prices. Futures prices are also under pressure and are expected to continue to decline. The follow - up spot and futures prices of pigs may still face downward pressure due to high supply [2][5] - The trading strategy suggests shorting near - month contracts, conducting an LH15 reverse spread, and taking a wait - and - see approach for options [6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Price - The average price of live pigs across the country dropped from 11.19 yuan/kg yesterday to 11.05 yuan/kg today, a decrease of 0.14 yuan/kg. The prices in various regions showed a general downward trend, with significant drops in some areas such as Shandong (down 0.41 yuan/kg) and Jiangsu (down 0.48 yuan/kg) [2] Futures Price - Futures prices also declined. For example, LH01 dropped from 12825 yuan to 12165 yuan, a decrease of 660 yuan; LH03 dropped from 12480 yuan to 11970 yuan, a decrease of 510 yuan [2] Piglet and Sow Prices - Piglet prices decreased from 212 yuan last week to 183 yuan this week, a decrease of 29 yuan. Sow prices dropped from 1570 yuan to 1563 yuan, a decrease of 7 yuan [2] Contract Spreads - LH7 - 9 spread decreased from - 535 to - 700, a decrease of 165; LH9 - 1 spread increased from 1205 to 1700, an increase of 495; LH9 - 11 spread increased from 1675 to 2270, an increase of 595; LH11 - 1 spread decreased from - 470 to - 570, a decrease of 100 [2] Slaughter Volume - The slaughter volume increased from 152586 heads yesterday to 152651 heads today, an increase of 65 heads [2] Size Pig Price Spreads - The spread between standard pigs and medium - sized pigs increased from 0.4 to 0.44, an increase of 0.04; the spread between large pigs and medium - sized pigs increased from 0.37 to 0.46, an increase of 0.09 [2] Spot Breeding Profits - The self - breeding and self - raising profit decreased from - 24.44 yuan to - 74.11 yuan, a decrease of 49.66 yuan; the profit from purchasing piglets decreased from - 199.31 yuan to - 236.57 yuan, a decrease of 37.25 yuan [2]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily report on the hog market dated September 15, 2025, focusing on the current supply - demand situation and price trends of hogs [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - The hog spot price is under pressure in the medium - term due to large supplies, but has short - term support. Futures prices are expected to be under pressure and may trend downward [2][4] Group 4: Summary by Content Spot Market - Hog spot prices across the country are falling. Large - scale enterprises' hog slaughter volume remains high, and overall supply pressure persists. Small - scale farmers' slaughter enthusiasm has decreased, and secondary fattening may increase as prices stabilize [2] - The average spot price dropped from 13.29 yuan/kg yesterday to 13.01 yuan/kg today. The price of piglets decreased from 294 yuan to 291 yuan, while the sow price remained at 1592 yuan [2] - Self - breeding and self - raising profit decreased from 32.24 yuan/head to 16.84 yuan/head, and the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening decreased from - 148.41 yuan/head to - 161.93 yuan/head [2] Futures Market - Futures prices are fluctuating slightly. The market considers the potential positive impact of an upcoming livestock and veterinary bureau meeting. The far - month contracts are affected by capacity changes, and there is some price support [4] - LH01 rose by 5 yuan to 13745 yuan, LH03 fell by 15 yuan to 13045 yuan, and so on [2] Trading Strategies - For single - side trading, short near - month contracts on rallies. For arbitrage, conduct an LH15 reverse spread. For options, buy far - month call options [5] Slaughter and Pig Size Spread - The daily slaughter volume decreased by 590 heads to 148082 heads. The price spread between different pig sizes has changed, with the large - pig to standard - pig spread increasing from 0.21 yuan/kg to 0.29 yuan/kg [2]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Pig Daily Report - May 21, 2025" [2] - Report Type: Agricultural Product R & D Report by Commodity Research Institute [1][5][8] - Researcher: Chen Jiezheng [4] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The overall live pig price across the country is showing a downward trend, with some areas experiencing slight increases. The market change is limited, and the overall supply pressure remains high. The market is expected to react in the short - term, but will mainly move in a volatile manner due to the low absolute price [3][6] - The live pig futures market is in a volatile and weak - running state. The spot market is weak, and the futures market has shown some over - decline. The subsequent supply pressure increase is limited, and the futures market is expected to continue to run weakly and volatilely [6] - The monthly spread of the futures market is mainly volatile, and is expected to run weakly as the spot price is likely to decline [6] Group 4: Summary by Directory Spot Information - **Price**: The average live pig price today is 14.27 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.03 yuan/kg compared to yesterday. Some regions have price drops, such as Henan (down 0.13 yuan/kg) and Hebei (down 0.13 yuan/kg), while some regions have price increases, like Guangdong (up 0.09 yuan/kg) and Yunnan (up 0.1 yuan/kg) [3] - **Supply**: Scale enterprises are accelerating the slaughter rhythm, and the number of live pigs from ordinary farmers and secondary fattening is increasing. The supply of large - weight pigs is still sufficient, and the price difference between large and small pigs has decreased [3] - **Profit**: The profit of self - breeding and self - raising is 80.66 yuan/head, a decrease of 3.67 yuan/head compared to yesterday; the profit of purchasing piglets is 48.20 yuan/head, a decrease of 10.26 yuan/head compared to yesterday [3] - **Slaughter**: The slaughter volume today is 141,715 heads, a decrease of 1,761 heads compared to yesterday [3] Futures Information - **Futures Price**: The futures prices of most contracts are showing a downward trend. For example, LH01 is 13,590 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton; LH07 is 13,285 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton [3] - **Price Spread**: The price spreads of most contracts are narrowing. For example, LH7 - 9 is - 365 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; LH9 - 1 is 60 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton [3] Trading Strategy - Unilateral trading: Mainly in a volatile state - Arbitrage: LH79 reverse arbitrage - Options: Sell wide - straddle strategy [7]