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挺价情绪渐起,猪价震荡运行
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 05:07
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pig industry is cautiously bearish [3][5] Group 2: Report's Core View - The pig market will continue to follow the supply - demand logic. With the decline in corn and soybean meal prices, the pig - raising cost decreases, and there is still profit in self - breeding and self - raising. Falling piglet prices make it cost - effective to raise pigs by purchasing piglets, which is expected to increase future pig supply. Attention should be paid to policy changes [2] - The egg market has weakening demand. Terminal consumers are resistant to high prices, food companies' procurement demand declines after the peak season, and all sectors have abundant inventories. The large inventory pressure may suppress the spot price [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Pig Market News and Important Data - Pig futures: The closing price of the live hog 2511 contract was 12,730 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton (+0.51%) from the previous trading day [1] - Pig spot: In Henan, the price of external ternary live hogs was 12.79 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan/kg; in Jiangsu, it was 12.89 yuan/kg, up 0.01 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 12.29 yuan/kg, unchanged [1] - Agricultural product wholesale prices on September 24: The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 118.78, up 0.50 points; the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index was 119.70, up 0.58 points. The average wholesale price of pork was 19.60 yuan/kg, up 0.2%; beef was 66.16 yuan/kg, up 0.3%; mutton was 61.63 yuan/kg, up 0.1%; eggs were 8.49 yuan/kg, unchanged; white - striped chicken was 17.96 yuan/kg, up 1.1% [1] Market Analysis - Last week, the spot price of pigs dropped significantly, and piglet prices also fell. Some piglets in certain areas fell below the cost line. The meeting targeting groups had little impact on the market. The future of the pig market will still follow the supply - demand logic [2] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] Egg Market News and Important Data - Egg futures: The closing price of the egg 2511 contract was 3,056 yuan/500 kg, down 9 yuan (-0.29%) from the previous trading day [3] - Egg spot: In Liaoning, the egg price was 3.47 yuan/jin, unchanged; in Shandong, it was 3.75 yuan/jin, unchanged; in Hebei, it was 3.31 yuan/jin, down 0.07 yuan [3] - On September 24, 2025, the national production - link inventory was 0.73 days, up 0.02 days (2.82% increase) from the previous day, and the circulation - link inventory remained unchanged at 0.98 days [3] Market Analysis - In terms of demand, last week, terminal consumers were resistant to high prices, causing egg prices to decline from the high level. Traders were cautious in purchasing, and all sectors accumulated inventory passively. The peak - season production of food companies is coming to an end, and the procurement demand has decreased significantly. Supermarkets and e - commerce platforms are digesting their previous inventory, and overall demand is weakening [4] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [5]