生猪养殖左侧布局
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广发证券:生猪养殖板块迎来左侧布局窗口期 26年中期猪价有望迎来向上拐点
智通财经网· 2025-12-12 01:49
Group 1: Pig Farming Industry - The current sales of fat pigs and piglets are in a loss state, indicating that the industry is in a precondition for capacity reduction [1] - Continuous losses in farming, combined with the "anti-involution" policy, are expected to accelerate capacity reduction in the industry, creating a left-side layout window for the pig farming sector [1] - By 2026, it is anticipated that there will be an upward turning point in pig prices, as competition in the industry intensifies and companies focus on comprehensive competitive capabilities rather than just cost competition [1] Group 2: Dairy Industry - In 2025, raw milk prices are expected to continue to bottom out, with industry losses driving a reduction in dairy cow inventory [2] - As the effects of previous capacity reduction become evident, the supply and demand for raw milk are gradually balancing, leading to a stabilization and rebound in spot milk prices in the second half of 2025 [2] - The beef supply is entering a contraction phase, with expectations for beef prices to continue to rise in 2026, increasing performance elasticity [2] Group 3: Feed Industry - The water feed sector is expected to maintain stable aquaculture volumes in 2026, with a trend of technical upgrades and structural adjustments continuing [3] - Domestic feed demand for livestock and poultry is projected to decline from high levels, while structural changes in the overseas feed industry present opportunities for Chinese feed companies to expand internationally [3] Group 4: Animal Health Industry - The animal health industry faces intensified competition, with product prices under pressure as the farming sector transitions from profit to loss [4] - Revenue and profitability in the industry may face significant challenges, prompting companies to accelerate business transformation and explore opportunities in the pet business [4] Group 5: Pet Food Industry - The industry is beginning to show a trend towards concentration, with leading companies like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co. performing well [5] - In the medium to long term, there is optimism for industry growth and the rise of domestic brands, with companies leveraging global production layouts to mitigate trade friction impacts [5] Group 6: Agricultural Planting Industry - Corn prices are expected to bottom out and rebound in 2025, with a strong possibility of fluctuations in 2026 [6] - The corn seed market is currently in a state of oversupply, undergoing a destocking phase, and may see improved conditions as inventory levels decrease [6]