机构：国投证券 研究员：蔡琪/燕斯娴/尤诗超 奶周期：26 年原奶价格有望触底反转，利好牧场利润弹性释放到25 年12 月，原奶价格较21 年8 月的最 高点下跌幅度达到31%，下行时间已近4 年半。我们预计26 年原奶周期将触底反转，原奶价格即将开启 新一轮上行周期：①成母牛群老化淘汰：我国上一轮奶牛扩群主要集中在20、21、22 年，而我国奶牛 的平均可利用产奶胎次在2-3 胎，到26 年上一轮投产的奶牛将逐步进入产奶末期，面临自然淘汰。且近 两年社会中小牧场为抗现金流压力淘汰了较多犊牛及育成牛，导致牛群老化，到26 年预计成母牛群的 自然淘汰及老化将驱动奶牛供给去化持续。②大包粉过期去库：我国国产大包粉保质期普遍在1-1.5 年，而我国主要的集中喷粉来自于24 年及25 年上半年，预计到26 年大包粉将因过期而加速去库，促进 更多新鲜原奶的消耗。 ③乳制品国产替代加速：25-26 年我国乳制品深加工产能逐步投产，干乳制品的国产替代将消化多余原 奶。优然牧业作为我国牧场龙头，原奶价格的触底反转将增厚其原奶销售毛利。 牛肉周期：肉牛价格已进入新一轮上行周期，利好牧场淘牛收入受牛肉进口增加、消费疲软等因素影 ...

2026 年 01 月 07 日 优然牧业(09858.HK) 原奶周期与牛肉周期共振，龙头牧场利 润弹性可期 奶周期：26 年原奶价格有望触底反转，利好牧场利润弹性释放 到 25 年 12 月，原奶价格较 21 年 8 月的最高点下跌幅度达到 31%， 下行时间已近 4 年半。我们预计 26 年原奶周期将触底反转，原奶价 格即将开启新一轮上行周期：①成母牛群老化淘汰：我国上一轮奶牛 扩群主要集中在 20、21、22 年，而我国奶牛的平均可利用产奶胎次 在 2-3 胎，到 26 年上一轮投产的奶牛将逐步进入产奶末期，面临自 然淘汰。且近两年社会中小牧场为抗现金流压力淘汰了较多犊牛及育 成牛，导致牛群老化，到 26 年预计成母牛群的自然淘汰及老化将驱 动奶牛供给去化持续。②大包粉过期去库：我国国产大包粉保质期普 遍在 1-1.5 年，而我国主要的集中喷粉来自于 24 年及 25 年上半年， 预计到 26 年大包粉将因过期而加速去库，促进更多新鲜原奶的消耗。 ③乳制品国产替代加速：25-26 年我国乳制品深加工产能逐步投产， 干乳制品的国产替代将消化多余原奶。优然牧业作为我国牧场龙头， 原奶价格的触底反转将增厚其 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the food and beverage industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by over 5% in the next 3-6 months [24]. Core Insights - The Ministry of Commerce has announced a countervailing policy against EU dairy imports, which is expected to accelerate domestic product substitution and stabilize raw milk prices. The policy will impose temporary countervailing measures on EU dairy products starting December 23, 2025, with subsidy rates ranging from 21.9% to 42.7% [2][8]. - The policy targets high-fat dairy products, particularly cheese and cream, which have a high dependency on imports. This is expected to significantly increase the cost of EU products, thereby enhancing the price advantage for domestic manufacturers [8]. - The domestic dairy processing industry has historically relied on imports due to high raw milk costs and immature technology. The report estimates that the domestic production of similar products accounted for only 14%-18% in 2023, indicating a substantial market opportunity for local producers [8]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The food and beverage industry comprises 126 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 46,266.30 billion and a circulating market value of 45,144.74 billion [5]. Market Performance - The absolute performance of the industry over the past month is -2.1%, with a 6-month performance of 2.7% and a 12-month performance of -4.9%. Relative performance shows a decline of -5.9% over one month, -17.1% over six months, and -22.4% over twelve months [6]. Policy Impact - The countervailing measures are expected to create a market space of approximately 20 billion for cream and 14 billion for cheese, accelerating domestic substitution. The report highlights that the production capacity of deep processing projects is expected to consume over 400 million tons of raw milk, potentially leading to a reversal in the raw milk cycle by the second half of 2026 [8]. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies three main investment opportunities: - Domestic substitutes that will directly benefit from the policy, with a focus on companies like Lihigh and Miaoke, which are positioned to capture high-end market segments [8]. - Dairy farms such as Youran and Modern Dairy, which are expected to benefit from a reversal in raw milk prices [8]. - Leading dairy companies like Yili and Mengniu, which are anticipated to strengthen their competitive edge through accelerated deep processing business and improved operational stability [8].

25年原奶价格继续磨底，行业亏损推动奶牛存栏量持续去化。随着前期去产能效应显现，原奶供需逐步 趋于平衡，下游乳企喷粉量同环比明显下滑，25年下半年散奶价格企稳反弹，行业逐步进入去大包粉库 存阶段。该行判断原奶供给拐点、散奶价格拐点已现，继续看好2026-27年原奶周期上行。同时，肉牛 供给已经步入收缩通道，预计26年牛肉价格继续周期回升，亦能增加业绩弹性，建议重点关注优然牧 业、现代牧业等。 饲料 把握龙头第二增长极。水产料方面，预计26年水产养殖量稳定运行，养殖利润较前期收窄背景下，技术 升级和结构调整趋势将延续;26年预计畜禽料需求高位回落。海外饲料行业结构性变化为我国饲料企业 出海提供机会，国内龙头凭借配方成本和效率优势在海外享受高盈利水平，支撑海外饲料业务扩张保持 快速增长，开启成长新阶段。 智通财经APP获悉，广发证券发布研报称，当前肥猪、仔猪销售均已陷入亏损状态，行业已经具备亏损 去产能的前期条件。随着养殖持续亏损，叠加"反内卷"政策背景，预计行业产能去化有望加速，生猪养 殖板块迎来左侧布局窗口期，同时关注冬季疫病对于产能影响。展望2026年，该行判断26年中期猪价有 望迎来向上拐点。随着行业竞争 ...

Core Viewpoint - The raw milk price has entered a phase of stabilization after a four-year decline, with prices expected to recover due to seasonal demand and supply adjustments [1][2][5] Group 1: Raw Milk Price Trends - The average raw milk price in major production areas increased from 3.02 CNY/kg in August to 3.04 CNY/kg by the end of September, while the price of raw milk in Ningxia rose from 2.1-2.2 CNY/kg to 3.5-3.7 CNY/kg [1][2] - The stabilization of raw milk prices is attributed to increased demand during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, as well as a natural decline in supply due to "heat stress" on dairy cows from July to September [1][2] Group 2: Industry Dynamics - The dairy industry has experienced a four-year downtrend, with a significant decline in dairy product consumption, leading to a different demand landscape compared to previous cycles [2] - The proportion of large-scale farms is increasing, with expectations that by 2024, 78% of farms will have over 100 heads of cattle, which may slow down the pace of supply reduction [2][5] Group 3: Beef Market Insights - The average beef price in China rose to 71.1 CNY/kg as of September 25, reflecting a 9.4% increase from the February low, driven by a reduction in cattle inventory and import restrictions [4] - The beef market is expected to experience a prolonged price upcycle due to the lengthy breeding and fattening cycle of cattle, with a forecasted decline in the number of breeding cows [4] Group 4: Opportunities for Dairy Companies - The narrowing decline in milk prices and reduced losses from culling cattle are expected to improve profit margins for dairy companies [5] - Companies like Yili (伊利股份) and New Dairy (新乳业) are showing signs of revenue improvement, with Yili achieving a 15x PE ratio and a 4.5% dividend yield, indicating significant investment value [6]

Summary of the Dairy Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The Chinese dairy product market has experienced a short-term decline, but the long-term demand remains stable due to essential consumer needs, increased health awareness, and policy support driving growth [2][4][10]. - Raw milk prices have undergone multiple fluctuations influenced by demand, policy, and international markets, leading to significant impacts on farm operations and the supply chain [2][7][8]. - The current situation shows a coexistence of oversupply and weak demand, with domestic raw milk self-sufficiency rapidly recovering [2][8][12]. Key Insights - **Raw Milk Price Trends**: The decline in raw milk prices has led large dairy companies to stabilize the supply chain through upstream investments and promotions, while smaller companies face increased competition and pressure on profitability [2][5][15]. - **Sales Decline**: The decrease in dairy product sales is primarily due to falling prices and weakened consumer purchasing power, with a shift towards more cost-effective products [2][20][22]. - **Market Resilience**: White milk has shown better performance compared to yogurt, and lower-tier markets have demonstrated resilience [2][4][23]. Future Outlook - **Recovery Phases**: The recovery of the dairy industry is expected to occur in three phases: inventory reduction by companies, stabilization of raw milk prices, and eventual demand recovery leading to increased revenues [3][10]. - **Long-term Growth Potential**: Despite current challenges, the long-term outlook for the dairy industry remains optimistic, supported by health awareness and government policies [10][27]. - **Consumer Behavior Changes**: The consumption patterns in China differ from other countries, with potential for growth as younger generations become more health-conscious [24][26]. Competitive Landscape - **Performance of Major Players**: Companies like Yili and Mengniu have not shown significant resilience during the current downturn, while smaller companies have performed relatively better [5][6][31]. - **Market Dynamics**: The competitive landscape will continue to be influenced by channel changes, brand strength, and product innovation [5][6][31]. Policy Impact - **Government Support**: Recent policies have focused on stabilizing the upstream dairy sector through financial support and consumption stimulation, which is crucial for maintaining production levels [12][18]. - **Self-sufficiency Trends**: The rapid recovery of raw milk self-sufficiency is expected to remain high, reducing reliance on international markets [12][13]. Challenges and Opportunities - **Industry Challenges**: The dairy industry faces challenges such as increased competition and the need for inventory management, but there are opportunities for growth through product innovation and market expansion [31][32]. - **Investment Recommendations**: Despite ongoing pressures, the dairy sector is recommended for investment due to its long-term potential and high barriers to entry, particularly favoring leading companies like Yili and Mengniu [35]. Conclusion - The Chinese dairy industry is navigating through a complex landscape of challenges and opportunities, with a focus on recovery and long-term growth driven by consumer health trends and supportive policies. The strategic positioning of major players and the resilience of smaller companies will be critical in shaping the future of the industry.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [9] Core Views - The current industry is at the historical bottom of the raw milk cycle, and the company's performance reflects the pressure from low milk prices. The company's earnings elasticity may come from the resonance of the "milk and meat" dual cycles, as the price of culled cattle (beef cattle) has entered an upward cycle, thereby reducing impairment losses on biological assets. With the industry's capacity reduction and the bottoming out of raw milk prices, the company is expected to see profit improvement in the second half of 2025 [2][8]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 6.073 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.4%. The net profit attributable to shareholders recorded a loss of 913 million yuan, compared to a loss of 228 million yuan in the same period last year. The loss pressure mainly came from the fair value changes of dairy cows, which resulted in a loss of 1.823 billion yuan, an increase of 58.4% year-on-year. The cash EBITDA was 1.477 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 2.5% year-on-year, while the net cash generated from operating activities was 490 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.3% [4][5]. Raw Milk Business - The raw milk business revenue was 5.069 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.8% year-on-year. The comprehensive breeding solution business (feed, digital platform, etc.) revenue was 1.004 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.2%, mainly due to the company's proactive adjustment of sales strategy to control risks and focus on high-quality customers [5]. Cost Control and Efficiency - During the industry's price decline, the company's raw milk business demonstrated strong operational resilience. The average selling price of raw milk decreased by 10.1% to 3.29 yuan/kg, which is lower than the industry average decline of 11.66%. Benefiting from the expansion of herd size and improved yield efficiency, the total sales volume of raw milk increased by 10.3% to 1.542 million tons, offsetting some of the revenue decline due to price drops. The average unit cost of milk decreased to 2.32 yuan/kg (from 2.58 yuan in the same period last year), with core feed costs significantly reduced by 11.4% to 1.79 yuan/kg. The company's excellent cost control allowed the raw milk business gross margin to remain stable at a high level of 30.2%, compared to 30.3% in the same period last year [6]. Herd Structure Optimization - The pressure on the company's performance in the first half of 2025 was mainly due to the loss of 1.823 billion yuan from the fair value changes of biological assets, which is related to the company's proactive culling of low-yield and inefficient cattle and the reduction in cattle valuation. This short-term impact on the profit statement lays a solid foundation for long-term development. The herd structure has improved, with the proportion of dairy cows in the total herd increasing by 3.5 percentage points to 54.1%, leading to higher production efficiency. The average annual yield per dairy cow reached a record high of 13.2 tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.5% [7]. Market Outlook - The current industry is at the historical bottom of the raw milk cycle, and the company's performance reflects the pressure from low milk prices. The company's earnings elasticity may come from the resonance of the "milk and meat" dual cycles, as the price of culled cattle (beef cattle) has entered an upward cycle, thereby reducing impairment losses on biological assets. With the industry's capacity reduction and the bottoming out of raw milk prices, the company is expected to see profit improvement in the second half of 2025 [2][8].

Core Viewpoint - Yili has demonstrated resilience as a leading dairy company, with both revenue and net profit returning to positive growth after a deep adjustment period in the raw milk industry in 2024 [1] Financial Performance - Yili's revenue reached 61.9 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, with Q2 revenue at 28.9 billion yuan, up 5.8% year-on-year [1] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders, excluding non-recurring items, increased nearly 32% year-on-year to 7.016 billion yuan, benefiting from lower raw milk costs and optimized sales expense ratios [2] - Despite a decline in cash flow from operating activities, Yili's confidence in achieving its annual targets of 119 billion yuan in revenue and 12.6 billion yuan in total profit remains strong [2][3] Operational Challenges - Yili faces dual pressures from weak demand and low milk prices, leading to a significant decline in net cash flow from operating activities, which fell over 44% year-on-year [3][28] - The company's interest-bearing liabilities reached 65.78 billion yuan by the end of the first half, an increase of over 5 billion yuan since the beginning of the year [4] - Cash reserves decreased by 7.8 billion yuan to 17.6 billion yuan due to dividend distribution for the 2024 fiscal year [5] Market Position and Strategy - Yili's liquid milk business has stabilized, with revenue of 36.126 billion yuan in the first half, a slight decline of 2% compared to a 13% drop in the same period last year [7] - The company has successfully reduced inventory by 7.6% and shortened inventory turnover days from 55 to 46 days [12] - Yili has introduced high-quality products in emerging channels and lower-tier markets, with non-traditional channels accounting for 30% of liquid milk revenue [15] Growth in Milk Powder Segment - The milk powder segment has become a significant growth driver, with revenue increasing from 26.3 billion yuan in 2021 to 29.7 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 6.5% [18] - In the first half of 2025, milk powder revenue grew 14.26% year-on-year to 16.58 billion yuan, accounting for 26.8% of total revenue [19] - Yili's market share in the infant formula segment reached 18.1%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, positioning it as the market leader [20] Competitive Landscape - The competition in the infant formula market remains intense, with both Yili and Feihe offering subsidies to new parents, although their strategies differ [23] - Feihe is currently undergoing inventory adjustments, which has impacted its revenue and profit, while Yili's market position appears more stable [22][24] Future Outlook - Yili anticipates that the liquid milk industry will eventually stabilize, with a focus on achieving a balance between supply and demand [29] - The company believes that long-term growth potential exists in the liquid milk sector, driven by demographic trends and increasing consumer health awareness [35]

Summary of Modern Dairy's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Modern Dairy - **Industry**: Dairy Farming Key Points and Arguments Industry and Company Performance - As of June 2025, the dairy herd size was 472,000 heads, a decrease of 19,000 heads from the end of 2024, but the proportion of lactating cows increased to 54.1% [2][5] - Raw milk production reached 1.66 million tons in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 14.6% [2][5] - The average yield per cow in traditional agriculture was 13.2 tons, up 1.5% year-on-year [2][5] - Revenue for the first half of 2025 was RMB 6.073 billion, with cash EBITDA at RMB 1.477 billion, a slight decrease of 2.5% year-on-year [3][31] Cost Management and Financials - Feed costs decreased by 11.4% year-on-year to RMB 1.79 per kilogram, while other cash costs fell by 6.8% to RMB 0.4 per kilogram [2][5] - The gross margin for raw milk remained around 30% [2][5] - Operating cash flow increased by 23% year-on-year to over RMB 400 million [6] - Capital expenditures decreased by over 16% to approximately RMB 1 billion [6] Market Outlook - The company anticipates continued pressure in the market for the fall and fourth quarter of 2025, with a potential market turning point in 2026 [4][9] - The dairy herd is expected to drop below 6 million heads in 2025, continuing to decline to about 5.8 million heads in the second half of the year [4][9] - The price of raw milk is projected to rise to RMB 3.3-3.5 per kilogram, with the company potentially reaching RMB 4 per kilogram [13] Specialty Milk and Product Development - The company operates five organic dairy farms with over 40,000 heads, and the proportion of specialty milk reached 8%, expected to exceed 10% by 2027 [6] - The company has secured 20%-30% of its soybean meal supply for the next year at a price lower by RMB 200-300 per ton compared to this year [4][23] Supply Chain and Import Dynamics - Domestic bulk powder prices are significantly lower than imported prices, leading to a decrease in import volumes [11] - The construction of new processing plants is expected to increase the demand for fresh milk [12] Challenges and Risks - The company faces challenges from heat stress affecting milk production and fluctuating market demands during peak seasons [7][8] - The elimination of dairy cows, particularly heifers, is a concern, with 210,000 heads culled in the first seven months of the year, impacting future supply [14][15] Future Projections - The company plans to maintain its herd size around 472,000 heads in the coming years, focusing on improving the proportion of lactating cows to enhance financial performance [20] - The expected yield per cow is projected to increase from 12.8 tons last year to over 13 tons this year [19] Conclusion - Modern Dairy is actively managing its herd size and costs while navigating market pressures and supply chain challenges. The focus on specialty milk and cost control measures positions the company for potential growth despite the current market volatility.

Core Viewpoint - Yili Group's half-year report shows strong performance with revenue of 61.933 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.37%, and a net profit of 7.016 billion yuan, up 31.78%, exceeding market expectations [1][3] Financial Performance - In the second quarter, Yili's revenue grew by 5.77%, with net profit increasing by 44.65% year-on-year, indicating a clear profitability turning point [3] - The overall gross margin for Yili reached 36.21%, an increase of 1.27 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin hit a historical high of 11.33% [4] Business Segments - Yili's liquid milk business generated revenue of 36.126 billion yuan, maintaining the largest market share in the industry, while the milk powder and dairy products segment saw revenue of 16.578 billion yuan, a growth of 14.26% [3] - The company achieved over 30% revenue growth in goat milk powder, increasing its market share to 34.4%, and the cheese and dairy fat business targeting professional clients also grew by over 20% [3] Diversification and Growth Strategy - Yili's diversified business now accounts for over 40% of its revenue, contributing significantly to its profitability [4] - The company is focusing on high-end markets and optimizing its product matrix to enhance overall gross margins [4] Industry Outlook - The dairy industry is expected to see structural growth, with demand factors becoming more prominent as supply issues are resolved [5] - Yili is well-positioned to benefit from the recovery in liquid milk supply and the anticipated rise in raw milk prices, which could lead to a new growth phase [6]