Summary of the Conference Call for Yuran Dairy Industry Industry Overview - The dairy industry is expected to see a moderate recovery in milk prices in 2025, influenced by summer heat stress, mid-to-high-end dairy product consumption, and new national standards [2][3][4] - The original milk price is projected to stabilize in Q3 2025 and rise in Q4 2025, supported by cash flow pressures faced by social pastures during the silage procurement season [2][10] Key Points Milk Price Expectations - Milk prices are anticipated to rise to around 3.8 RMB/kg, with fluctuations expected to be moderate rather than drastic [4][22] - The average milk price for 2024 was 4.12 RMB/kg, with a sales cost of 2.77 RMB/kg, where feed costs accounted for approximately 70%-75% of total costs [2][21] Company Strategy and Performance - Yuran Dairy aims for a low single-digit growth in the number of dairy cows in 2025, with production and sales expected to exceed 4 million tons [2][5] - The company’s fresh milk pricing is above the market average, with a 2024 average of 4.12 RMB/kg compared to the national average of 3.32 RMB/kg [2][6] - The company plans to maintain a stable gross margin in 2025, benefiting from a recovery in beef prices which will reduce losses from culling [5][21] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The culling of dairy cows is accelerating due to rising beef prices, which are nearing 20 RMB/kg, alleviating cash flow pressures on pastures [2][9] - The number of dairy cows in China has been decreasing, with a monthly reduction of approximately 35,000 to 40,000 heads from January to April 2025, slowing to 10,000 heads in May [3][4] Cost and Profit Analysis - A change of 0.1 RMB/kg in milk price or cost is expected to impact annual net profit by approximately 400 million RMB [3][21] - The company’s average sales ratio remains stable at 97%-98%, with no sales pressure due to unlimited purchases from downstream clients [12] Market Trends and Consumer Behavior - There is a structural change in demand, with a shift from room temperature milk to low-temperature milk and an increase in the high-end segment of infant formula and elderly milk powder [10][11] - The company is exploring international markets, including Hong Kong and Southeast Asia, to expand its customer base [11] Future Outlook - The dairy industry is expected to stabilize and see a gradual recovery in milk prices, indicating that the most challenging period may be nearing its end [20][22] - The company is focusing on enhancing operational efficiency and maintaining a balanced supply-demand relationship to navigate future market fluctuations [22][29] Additional Insights - The company has expanded its product line to include goat milk, which is gaining popularity due to its digestibility [25] - The breeding business is progressing well, with a focus on improving the quality of dairy cows through advanced breeding techniques [26] This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections discussed during the conference call, highlighting the strategic direction and market dynamics of Yuran Dairy Industry.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Tianrun Dairy (600419) [2][8] Core Views - The demand remains weak, impacting profitability due to impairment losses. In Q1 2025, total revenue was CNY 625 million, down 2.5% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of -CNY 73 million compared to CNY 5 million in the same period last year [2][8] - The company is actively adjusting to pressures, with expectations for gradual improvement in operations throughout the year. The report anticipates that the reduction in cattle and the introduction of new products will help stabilize revenue and improve profitability [2][8] Financial Summary - **Revenue and Profit Forecasts**: - Total revenue is projected to grow from CNY 2,804 million in 2024 to CNY 3,327 million in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.3%, 5.2%, 6.4%, and 6.0% respectively [4] - Net profit is expected to recover from CNY 44 million in 2024 to CNY 204 million in 2027, with significant growth rates of -69.3%, 94.2%, 100.6%, and 20.0% [4] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - EPS is forecasted to increase from CNY 0.14 in 2024 to CNY 0.64 in 2027, reflecting the company's recovery strategy [4] - **Valuation Ratios**: - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 72 in 2024 to 15 in 2027, indicating an improving valuation as earnings recover [4] Sales Performance - In Q1 2025, the sales revenue from various product lines showed a decline, with revenue from ambient products at CNY 347 million, down 4.37%, and low-temperature products at CNY 239 million, down 0.64% [8] - The company experienced a 12.37% increase in dairy product sales volume year-on-year, attributed to promotional activities in the Xinjiang region [8] Strategic Adjustments - The company is focusing on reducing cattle numbers and introducing new products to adapt to market pressures. New product launches include passion fruit milk beer and baked milk skin, aimed at diversifying revenue streams [8] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the raw milk price cycle and the potential impact of consumer stimulus policies on future performance [8]

| [Table_DataInfo] 评级： | 买入 | 股票代码： | 9858 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上次评级： | | 52 周最高价/最低价(港元)： | 2.54/1.06 | | 目标价格(港元)： | | 总市值(亿港元) | 87.98 | | 最新收盘价(港元)： | 2.26 | 自由流通市值(亿港元) | 87.98 | | | | 自由流通股数(百万) | 3,892.73 | [Table_Summary] 事件概述 公司 24FY 实现营业收入 201.0 亿元，同比+7.5%，实现股东应占亏损 6.91 亿元，去年同期为亏损 10.50 亿元。据此推算，公司 24H2 实现营业收入 100.5 亿元，同比+4.6%，实现股东应占亏损 3.6 亿元， 去年同期为亏损 0.58 亿元。 分析判断: ► 原料奶业务增长，反刍动物养殖解决方案业务承压 证券研究报告|港股公司点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 04 月 29 日 [Table_Title] 现金 EBITDA 表现亮眼，期待原奶周期反转 [Table_Title2] 优 ...

Group 1: Fertility Stimulus Policies and Dairy Sector - Recent fertility stimulus policies in several cities, including cash subsidies and education benefits, are expected to benefit the dairy sector directly [1] - The upcoming recovery in birth rates and consumer confidence is anticipated to follow these policies, leading to improvements in the dairy product sector [1] - The dairy sector is expected to continue its structural upgrades as the raw milk cycle approaches a turning point [1] Group 2: Alcoholic Beverages - Baijiu and Beer - The baijiu sector is projected to see a recovery in profitability as consumer confidence improves, with current valuations remaining low and significant room for valuation recovery [2] - Beer consumption is expected to rebound due to the issuance of dining consumption vouchers in cities like Shanghai and Hangzhou, with low inventory levels supporting a recovery in sales [3] Group 3: Dairy Products Pricing and Supply - The average price of fresh milk in major producing provinces has decreased to 3.08 yuan/kg, down 0.3% week-on-week and 12.3% year-on-year, indicating ongoing downward pressure on prices [4] - Despite short-term price pressures, upstream supply reduction is expected to stabilize prices, leading to potential profitability recovery for dairy companies in 2025 [4] Group 4: Condiments and Frozen Foods - The market is currently focused on policy developments to boost consumption, with expectations for steady growth in the condiment and frozen food sectors in 2025 [5] - Companies are increasingly prioritizing B-end clients, with some expected to achieve growth rates exceeding the market average through new product launches [5] Group 5: Snacks and Beverages - The konjac product category is experiencing strong sales growth, driven by health trends, with the snack industry benefiting from channel expansion and new product introductions [6] - The tea beverage sector is seeing a revenue increase of 32.3%, attributed to strong demand for sugar-free tea, while the packaging water market is expected to stabilize [7]