Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral stance. The range of trend strength is from -2 to 2, where -2 means most bearish and 2 means most bullish [2]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current situation shows that the price difference between fat pigs in the north and south is inverted, the sale of group piglets has decreased, and the pen pressure in May has slightly increased. However, the price has continuously exceeded expectations, leading to the continuation of inventory accumulation. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation rhythm, and the near - end contradiction has not reached the release stage. The trading logic has switched to the industrial logic, focusing on the arbitrage strategy of the valuation deviation of the far - month inter - month spread from the normal state. In the medium and long term, continue to layout the 11 - 1 reverse spread, and pay attention to stop - profit and stop - loss. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of pigs in Henan is 15,000 yuan/ton, in Sichuan is 14,550 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong is 15,190 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year change of 0 for all [1]. - **Futures Prices**: The price of the pig 2507 contract is 13,645 yuan/ton (year - on - year increase of 70), the pig 2509 contract is 14,020 yuan/ton (year - on - year increase of 135), and the pig 2511 contract is 13,655 yuan/ton (year - on - year increase of 65) [1]. - **Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the pig 2507 contract is 7,071 lots (an increase of 3,806 compared to the previous day), and the open interest is 28,290 lots (a decrease of 652 compared to the previous day). The trading volume of the pig 2509 contract is 28,034 lots (an increase of 14,102 compared to the previous day), and the open interest is 72,340 lots (an increase of 1,078 compared to the previous day). The trading volume of the pig 2511 contract is 3,214 lots (an increase of 1,338 compared to the previous day), and the open interest is 29,440 lots (a decrease of 244 compared to the previous day) [1][3]. 3.2 Market Logic - The current market logic has shifted from macro - driven to industry - driven. Attention should be paid to the arbitrage strategy of the far - month inter - month spread valuation deviation from the normal state, and continue to layout the 11 - 1 reverse spread in the medium and long term. The short - term support and pressure levels for the LH2509 contract are given [3]. 3.3 Basis and Spread Data - The basis of the pig 2507 contract is - 65 yuan/ton, the pig 2509 contract is 365 yuan/ton, and the pig 2511 contract is 70 yuan/ton. The 7 - 9 spread is - 375 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 11 spread is 980 yuan/ton, with corresponding year - on - year changes [3].