Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The spot market is in a state of oscillatory adjustment. Based on sow and piglet data, pig slaughter volume may increase monthly until December, and with sufficient supply, it's difficult for pig prices to rise significantly and continuously. The strengthening of the fat - standard price difference may support pig prices, and the LH2509 contract price is currently in a relatively reasonable range, so it's recommended to wait and see [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures End - **主力合约基差情况**: The main contract (LH2509) of live pigs adjusted oscillatory this week. On July 11, 2025, the benchmark base difference was 455 yuan/ton, compared to 1015 yuan/ton on July 4, 2025 [1][2][3] - **各合约价格变化情况**: The prices of far - month contracts adjusted oscillatory [5] - **月间价差变化**: The 9 - 11 and 9 - 01 contract spreads showed strong performance [7][10] 2. Spot End - **猪价与宰量**: This week, compared with last week, both the price and the slaughter volume decreased [13] - **区域价差**: Regional price differences are relatively reasonable [15] - **肥标价差**: The fat - standard price difference adjusted with an overall oscillatory and slightly stronger trend. Attention should be paid to whether the fat - standard price difference can strengthen seasonally. If so, it may weaken the market's willingness to reduce weight and even prompt the market to increase weight [17] - **鲜销与毛白价差**: Terminal consumption is relatively stable year - on - year [19] - **相关产品比价与鲜冻价差**: The cost - effectiveness of pork is average. The fresh - frozen price difference of No. 2 meat is strengthening. If it continues to strengthen, it may reduce the substitution of fresh products for frozen products [21] - **养殖利润**: Self - breeding and self - raising still yield considerable profits, while purchasing piglets for fattening is in a state of slight loss [23] - **出栏体重**: The average slaughter weight continues to increase, which is negative for future pig prices [25] 3. Capacity End - **能繁母猪存栏量**: According to Ministry of Agriculture data, at the end of May, the national inventory of reproductive sows was 40.42 million, a month - on - month increase of 0.1% and a year - on - year increase of 1.2%. Yongyi Consulting data shows that in June, the inventory of reproductive sows in its sample 1 increased by 0.22% month - on - month, and last month it was 0.92%. My steel data shows that in June, the inventory of reproductive sows in its sample of large - scale enterprises increased by 0.29% month - on - month, and last month it was 0.33% [27] - **母猪淘汰情况**: The price of culled sows weakened this week. The slaughter volume of culled sows increased month - on - month in June but remained at a low level [29] - **母猪生产效率与新生健仔数**: In June, the number of healthy piglets born decreased by 1.26% month - on - month (the previous value was +2.91%), corresponding to a halt in the increase and a turn to a decline in the number of slaughtered pigs in December this year (calculated based on a 6 - month fattening period) [31] - **母猪、仔猪补栏积极性**: This week, the price of 15 - kg piglets increased slightly, and the price of 50 - kg binary sows remained stable [33] 4. Slaughter End - The slaughter volume increased month - on - month. According to Ministry of Agriculture data, in May, the slaughter volume of designated enterprises was 32.16 million, a month - on - month increase of 4.5% and a year - on - year increase of 20.6%. The frozen product market will gradually enter the de - stocking stage, and its impact on pig prices will change from positive to neutral - negative [35] 5. Import End - In May 2025, the pork import volume was about 90,000 tons, an increase of 11,000 tons compared with the previous month. Currently, the scale of pork imports is limited, and its impact on domestic pig prices is relatively limited [38]