生猪市场政策调控

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农林牧渔行业报告(2025.6.15-2025.6.22):生猪偏弱震荡,政策调控影响或在明年体现
China Post Securities· 2025-06-24 07:19
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Outperform the Market" [1][40]. Core Viewpoints - The agricultural sector has experienced a significant decline, with the industry index dropping by 3.13%, ranking 26th among 31 primary industries in terms of performance [2][11]. - The report indicates that the pig market is under pressure, with prices continuing to decline, and the impact of regulatory policies is expected to manifest next year [3][17]. - The white feather chicken market is facing a decrease in chick prices, with a focus on domestic breeding opportunities due to uncertainties in imports [4][27]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The agricultural sector has seen a substantial drop, with the industry index down 3.13%, while the broader market indices like the CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.45% and 0.51% respectively [11][12]. - The core agricultural sectors have all declined, and the market sentiment remains cautious with a wait-and-see approach [12]. Livestock Industry Chain Tracking - Pig prices have continued to decline, with the national average price at 13.93 CNY/kg as of June 22, which is the second time this month it has fallen below 14 CNY [3][15]. - The price of 15 kg piglets has dropped to 400 CNY/head, down over 200 CNY from the year's peak [3][15]. - The supply of pigs is currently adequate, and the high temperatures in June have affected consumption, leading to increased selling activity from farmers [3][15]. - The report anticipates a seasonal increase in pig supply in the second half of 2025, with prices expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [17]. - The report suggests that the profitability of the industry will be a key focus this year, with cost differences being the most effective indicator of companies' profitability [17][18]. Poultry Industry Chain Tracking - As of June 20, the price of white feather chicken chicks in Yantai is 1.90 CNY/chick, a significant drop of 0.8 CNY from the previous week, while the price of broiler chickens is 3.48 CNY/jin, down 2.79% [4][27]. - The report highlights that the uncertainty surrounding imports has eased, and there is a growing focus on domestic breeding as a potential opportunity [4][27]. Planting Industry Chain Tracking - Sugar prices have adjusted downwards, with the price of white sugar in Liuzhou at 6055 CNY/ton, down 35 CNY from the previous week [32]. - Soybean prices have shown a slight increase, with the imported price at 3877 CNY/ton, up 1.9% from the previous week [32]. - Corn prices have continued to rise, with the national average at 2381 CNY/ton, up 25 CNY from the previous week [32].