Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - Short - term pig prices may fluctuate, and in the long - term, pig prices may reach new lows [4]. - The core logic is that from sow and piglet data, the supply of live pigs in the second, third, and fourth quarters of 2025 is abundant, and there is no basis for a significant increase in pig prices; the demand in the second and third quarters provides weak support for pig prices; the current live pig slaughter weight is still increasing, indicating inventory accumulation by the breeding end, which is negative for the future market. If there is a concentrated weight reduction later, pig prices may reach new lows [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Overview - On May 21, 2025, the national average live pig slaughter price was 14.49 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/kg or 0.07% from the previous day. The slaughter price in Henan was 14.59 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.13 yuan/kg or 0.88% [6]. - For futures prices, the 07 - contract price was 13,285 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan/ton or 0.52%; the 09 - contract price (the main contract) was 13,650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton or 0.29% [6]. - The main - contract basis in Henan was 940 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton or 8.74% [6]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the number of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs from March to December is expected to increase monthly but with a limited range. From the perspective of piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs will increase overall in the second and third quarters of 2025. The first half of the year is the off - season for demand, and the second half is the peak season [3]. - From historical and current fundamentals, the fat - to - standard price difference may fluctuate and adjust [3]. - The short - side logic includes that the breeding end has not yet reduced weight, which is negative for the future market; the subsequent slaughter volume is expected to continue to increase; the demand in the second and third quarters is not strong enough to support pig prices. The long - side logic includes that the frozen - product inventory still has room to increase, which can support pig prices; the spot price is firm, indicating that the supply - demand situation is not as loose as the short - side thinks; although there is an increase in subsequent slaughter, the increase is limited, and the third and fourth quarters are gradually entering the peak season for live - pig consumption [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestions - The short - term pig prices may fluctuate, and in the long - term, there may be new lows. The core logic is that the supply of live pigs in the second, third, and fourth quarters of 2025 is abundant, and the demand in the second and third quarters provides weak support for pig prices. The current increasing slaughter weight indicates inventory accumulation by the breeding end, which is negative for the future market. If there is a concentrated weight reduction, pig prices may reach new lows. Due to high uncertainty and weak short - term weight - reduction motivation in the market, and the futures price being in a relatively reasonable range, it is recommended to wait and see for now [4].