Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Pay attention to the point when the supply of circulating spot goods eases and the change in the overall long - short sentiment of commodities. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. Recently, the policy expectation of supply - side contraction has increased, the overall bullish sentiment in the commodity market is strong, and the low volume of alumina warehouse receipts registration has driven the short - term strength of futures prices. However, based on the current aluminum industry development plan and the energy consumption level of alumina equipment, it is expected that there will be no large - scale capacity elimination. Some device rectification plans may be implemented, but the impact on the supply side is expected to be limited. In the future, the implementation of supply - side policies still needs to be observed in the short term. The pattern of alumina over - capacity this year may still be difficult to change. With the continuous decline in the current warehouse receipt registration volume, there are uncertainties on both the long and short sides. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. In the future, it is necessary to mainly track the point when the supply of circulating spot goods eases and the change in the overall long - short sentiment of commodities, and wait for the opportunity to lay out short positions. The reference operating range of the domestic main contract AO2509 is 3200 - 3700 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to warehouse receipt registration, supply - side policies, and Guinea's ore policies [2][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 "Elimination of Backward Capacity" Policy Impact - The "anti - involution policy" introduced by relevant national departments has promoted a strong bullish sentiment in the commodity market, and the Wenhua Commodity Index has risen significantly out of the bottom shock range. The policy expectation has further strengthened, driving the alumina futures price to rise sharply with heavy volume on the night session of July 18. The current energy consumption standards for alumina plants are mainly based on the national standard GB21346 - 2022. Although some alumina production capacities have a long service life, most of them have been technically upgraded and replaced in recent years to meet the energy consumption benchmark level. For example, Chalco's alumina smelting energy consumption reached 100% of the energy - efficiency benchmark level in 2022, and Guangxi Guangtou's new project also has a very low comprehensive energy consumption. Weiqiao has also achieved low - energy consumption production through various measures. The "Aluminum Industry High - Quality Development Implementation Plan (2025 - 2027)" issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology at the beginning of the year has also set new standards for alumina projects. Based on the current aluminum industry development plan and the energy consumption level of alumina equipment, it is expected that there will be no large - scale capacity elimination, and some device rectification plans may be implemented, but the impact on the supply side is expected to be limited [5][6][7]. 3.2 Excess Supply - Demand Structure and Scarce Circulating Spot Goods - As of July 18, the latest weekly output of alumina reached 1.792 million tons, and the output rebounded to a new high this year. The total social inventory of alumina increased by 39,000 tons to 3.989 million tons compared with the previous week. Affected by factors such as over - selling by previous holders, unstable product quality, and overdue long - term order delivery, the finished product inventory of alumina plants has been directly transferred to downstream aluminum plants as raw material inventory, and the logistics and transportation in the northern region has been blocked, resulting in obvious backlogs of in - transit inventory. Therefore, the circulating spot goods in the market have been continuously tight. Affected by this, the alumina warehouse receipt registration volume has decreased for two consecutive months, and the current registered warehouse receipt volume is only 6,900 tons, a significant reduction from the previous high of 299,000 tons. In addition, the current inventory in the delivery warehouse is only 44,700 tons, with a large outflow compared with the previous period. Although the supply - demand structure remains in excess, the scarcity of circulating spot goods has led to more premium transactions, and the low warehouse receipt registration volume has intensified the delivery game on the capital side, driving the continuous strengthening of futures prices. Looking forward, the implementation of supply - side policies still needs to be observed in the short term. The pattern of alumina over - capacity this year may still be difficult to change, but with the continuous decline in the current warehouse receipt registration volume, there are uncertainties on both the long and short sides. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. In the future, it is necessary to mainly track the point when the supply of circulating spot goods eases and the change in the overall long - short sentiment of commodities, and wait for the opportunity to lay out short positions. The reference operating range of the domestic main contract AO2509 is 3200 - 3700 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to warehouse receipt registration, supply - side policies, and Guinea's ore policies [9][12].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Recently, due to the impact of delivery game triggered by the expected cancellation of warehouse receipts, the futures market has rebounded. However, after the price increase, the willingness to hedge is strong, and the number of warehouse receipts has also increased. The market may return to the fundamentals and operate with a weak and volatile trend [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On June 30, 2025, the main contract 2509 of lithium carbonate opened at 63,460 yuan/ton and closed at 62,260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.77% compared to the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 389,727 lots, and the open interest was 330,824 lots, a decrease of 10,624 lots from the previous trading day. The total open interest of all contracts was 596,987 lots, a decrease of 18,035 lots from the previous trading day. The total trading volume of contracts decreased by 296,883 lots from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 494,672, and the overall speculation degree was 0.83. The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 2,2628 lots, an increase of 630 lots from the previous trading day [1] - According to SMM data, on June 30, 2025, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 60,500 - 62,100 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 59,200 - 60,200 yuan/ton, also an increase of 1,500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The market is in a game situation of "upstream price support and downstream price pressure". The overall market transaction is light, but some rigid demand orders support a slight price increase. Affected by the futures market, the spot price has also strengthened, but the fundamentals have not improved [1] Strategy - Overall, the market may return to the fundamentals and operate with a weak and volatile trend. For the unilateral strategy, it is recommended to sell and hedge at high prices. There are no recommended strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, basis, and options [2]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The report predicts that the price of the 2509 contract of live pigs will undergo a period of oscillatory adjustment and suggests temporary observation [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Market Overview - On June 25, 2025, the national average live pig slaughter price was 14.48 yuan/kg, up 0.02 yuan or 0.14% from the previous day; the futures prices of various contracts all increased, with the 07 contract rising 0.48% to 13,615 yuan/ton, and the 09 contract rising 0.43% to 14,000 yuan/ton; the main basis in Henan remained unchanged at 800 yuan/ton [6]. Market Dynamics - On June 25, there were 750 registered live pig warrants; the LH2507 contract is mainly about spot-futures convergence and delivery games, and the far-month contracts are oscillating due to factors such as weight reduction benefiting the future market and expected increase in future market supply; the main contract (LH2509) reduced its position by 369 lots today, with a position of about 81,000 lots, a high of 14,015 yuan/ton, a low of 13,930 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 14,000 yuan/ton [2]. Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited; from the perspective of piglet data, the overall slaughter volume of live pigs will increase oscillatingly in the second and third quarters of 2025; the first half of the year is the off-season for demand, and the second half is the peak season [3]. - Based on historical data and current fundamentals, the spread between fat and standard pigs may oscillate and adjust [3]. - The short-side logic includes slow weight reduction in the breeding sector, continuous increase in future slaughter volume, and limited support from demand for pig prices as the second and third quarters are not the peak consumption season; the long-side logic includes room for an increase in frozen product inventory, strong resilience of spot prices, limited increase in future slaughter volume, and the gradual entry into the peak consumption season in the third and fourth quarters [3]. Strategy Recommendations - The view is oscillatory adjustment [4]. - The core logic is that the slaughter volume of live pigs may increase monthly until December, and it is difficult for pig prices to rise significantly under sufficient supply; the current live pig spot market shows a benign triangular relationship, indicating that demand also supports pig prices, and it is difficult for pig prices to fall significantly; the 2509 contract is at a discount to the spot, and weight reduction in the breeding sector benefits the 09 contract, so it is recommended to wait and see [4].

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The overall view of the report is that the price of live pigs is expected to be weak with fluctuations [4]. - The reasons include sufficient supply in the second, third, and fourth quarters of 2025 based on sow and piglet data, weak demand support in the second and third quarters, and the possibility of a new low in prices if there is concentrated and significant weight reduction in June and July [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory I. Market Overview - On June 11, 2025, the national average live pig slaughter price was 14.02 yuan/kg, up 0.01 yuan or 0.07% from the previous day. The slaughter price in Henan was 14.12 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan or -0.07%, and in Sichuan it was 13.91 yuan/kg, up 0.07 yuan or 0.51% [6]. - For futures prices, the 01 contract was 13,600 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or -0.07%; the 03 contract was 12,775 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0.08%; the 05 contract was 12,995 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan or 0.19%; the 07 contract was 13,215 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or -0.08%; the 09 contract was 13,600 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan or 0.04%; the 11 contract was 13,325 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan or 0.26% [6]. - The main contract basis in Henan was 520 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan or -2.8% [6]. II. Key Data Tracking - The report presents data on the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main live - pig contract in the Henan region, the price difference between the 09 - 11 contracts, and the price difference between the 11 - 01 contracts [14]. III. Market Dynamics - On June 11, the number of registered live - pig warehouse receipts was 525 lots [2]. - The LH2507 contract is mainly about the convergence of futures and spot prices and delivery games. The far - month contracts are fluctuating weakly due to the expected decline in spot prices and the possible increase in future slaughter volume [2]. - The main contract (LH2509) reduced its positions by 888 lots today, with a position of about 77,400 lots. The highest price was 13,670 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,570 yuan/ton, and it closed at 13,600 yuan/ton [2]. IV. Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the number of fertile sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase month - by - month from March to December, but the increase is limited. Based on piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs will generally increase in the second and third quarters of 2025. The first half of the year is the off - season for demand, while the second half is the peak season [3]. - Based on historical and current fundamentals, the fat - standard price difference may fluctuate and adjust [3]. - The short - side logic includes that the farming side has not reduced the weight of pigs, future slaughter volume is expected to continue to increase, and demand support is limited in the second and third quarters. The long - side logic includes that there is still room for an increase in frozen product inventory, the spot price is firm, and although the future slaughter volume will increase, the increase is limited and the fourth quarter is the peak consumption season [3]. V. Strategy Suggestions - The view is that the market will be weak with fluctuations [4]. - The core logic is that the slaughter volume of live pigs will be sufficient in the second, third, and fourth quarters of 2025, demand support is weak in the second and third quarters, a new low in prices may occur if there is concentrated and significant weight reduction in June and July, and the price of the 09 contract is currently in a relatively reasonable range, so it is recommended to wait and see [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - Short - term pig prices may fluctuate, and in the long - term, pig prices may reach new lows [4]. - The core logic is that from sow and piglet data, the supply of live pigs in the second, third, and fourth quarters of 2025 is abundant, and there is no basis for a significant increase in pig prices; the demand in the second and third quarters provides weak support for pig prices; the current live pig slaughter weight is still increasing, indicating inventory accumulation by the breeding end, which is negative for the future market. If there is a concentrated weight reduction later, pig prices may reach new lows [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Overview - On May 21, 2025, the national average live pig slaughter price was 14.49 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/kg or 0.07% from the previous day. The slaughter price in Henan was 14.59 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.13 yuan/kg or 0.88% [6]. - For futures prices, the 07 - contract price was 13,285 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan/ton or 0.52%; the 09 - contract price (the main contract) was 13,650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton or 0.29% [6]. - The main - contract basis in Henan was 940 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton or 8.74% [6]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the number of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs from March to December is expected to increase monthly but with a limited range. From the perspective of piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs will increase overall in the second and third quarters of 2025. The first half of the year is the off - season for demand, and the second half is the peak season [3]. - From historical and current fundamentals, the fat - to - standard price difference may fluctuate and adjust [3]. - The short - side logic includes that the breeding end has not yet reduced weight, which is negative for the future market; the subsequent slaughter volume is expected to continue to increase; the demand in the second and third quarters is not strong enough to support pig prices. The long - side logic includes that the frozen - product inventory still has room to increase, which can support pig prices; the spot price is firm, indicating that the supply - demand situation is not as loose as the short - side thinks; although there is an increase in subsequent slaughter, the increase is limited, and the third and fourth quarters are gradually entering the peak season for live - pig consumption [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestions - The short - term pig prices may fluctuate, and in the long - term, there may be new lows. The core logic is that the supply of live pigs in the second, third, and fourth quarters of 2025 is abundant, and the demand in the second and third quarters provides weak support for pig prices. The current increasing slaughter weight indicates inventory accumulation by the breeding end, which is negative for the future market. If there is a concentrated weight reduction, pig prices may reach new lows. Due to high uncertainty and weak short - term weight - reduction motivation in the market, and the futures price being in a relatively reasonable range, it is recommended to wait and see for now [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - For industrial silicon: Unilateral - Sell on rallies; Inter - period - None; Cross - variety - None; Options - None [3][4] - For polysilicon: Unilateral - Neutral; Inter - period - None; Cross - variety - None; Futures - spot - None; Options - None [8] 2. Core Views - The overall fundamentals of industrial silicon are weak, with potential supply increases from the resumption of production in the northwest and southwest, lackluster consumption, and declining exports [3] - The fundamentals of polysilicon are also weak. With the increase in the number of warehouse receipts, the delivery game is weakening, and the market is expected to run weakly [8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On May 20, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price was weakly volatile. The main contract 2505 opened at 8080 yuan/ton and closed at 7910 yuan/ton, down 205 yuan/ton (-2.53%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2505 was 64706 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 66249 lots, an increase of 152 lots from the previous day [1] - The spot price of industrial silicon was stable. The price of East China oxygen - permeable 553 silicon was 8700 - 8900 (-150) yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9400 - 10000 (-150) yuan/ton. Silicon prices in some regions such as Kunming, Huangpu Port, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, Shanghai, and the northwest continued to decline [1] - In April 2025, the export volume of industrial silicon was 60,500 tons, a 2% increase month - on - month and a 9% decrease year - on - year. From January to April 2025, the cumulative export volume was 216,700 tons, a 7% decrease year - on - year. In April 2025, the import volume of metallic silicon in China was 500 tons, a 70% decrease month - on - month and an 83% decrease year - on - year. From January to April 2025, the cumulative import volume was 5200 tons, a 43% decrease year - on - year [1] Consumption End - The quotation of organic silicon DMC was 11300 - 11600 (0) yuan/ton. In the organic silicon market, the prices of raw rubber and D4 showed different trends. The demand for raw rubber downstream increased rapidly, and the transaction was good, while the overall transaction of D4 was average due to weak demand for room - temperature rubber, and the high - end price declined slightly [2] Polysilicon Market Analysis - On May 20, 2025, the main contract 2507 of polysilicon futures fell, opening at 36020 yuan/ton and closing at 35625 yuan/ton, a 0.99% decrease from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 70536 (63062 in the previous trading day) lots, and the trading volume was 165519 lots [5] - The spot price of polysilicon was stable. The price of polysilicon re - feedstock was 33.00 - 35.00 (-1.00) yuan/kg; dense polysilicon was 32.00 - 34.00 (-1.00) yuan/kg; cauliflower - shaped polysilicon was 30.00 - 32.00 (0.00) yuan/kg; granular silicon was 32.00 - 34.00 (-0.50) yuan/kg, and N - type silicon was 36.00 - 39.00 (-0.50) yuan/kg, N - type granular silicon was 33.00 - 35.00 (-1.00) yuan/kg [5] - The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers decreased, and the inventory of silicon wafers increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 25000 tons, a 2.27% decrease month - on - month, and the silicon wafer inventory was 19.44GW, a 7.22% increase month - on - month. The weekly output of polysilicon was 21400 tons, unchanged month - on - month, and the output of silicon wafers was 12.42GW, a 0.50% increase month - on - month [6] - For silicon wafers, the price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 0.94 (0.00) yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.28 (0.00) yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.08 (0.00) yuan/piece [6] - For battery cells, the price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.29 (0.00) yuan/W; PERC210 battery cells was about 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W; Topcon M10 battery cells was about 0.26 (0.00) yuan/W; Topcon G12 battery cells was 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W; Topcon 210RN battery cells was 0.26 (0.00) yuan/W. HJT210 half - cell battery was 0.37 (0.00) yuan/W [6] - For components, the mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 (0.00) yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.69 - 0.69 (0.00) yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.69 - 0.70 (0.00) yuan/W [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The industrial silicon futures and spot prices are in a downward trend. The supply in the northwest region remains relatively high, and the demand is weak. The industry is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [1][2][3]. - The polysilicon futures price hit a new low, while the spot price remained stable. There is a game between production cuts by polysilicon enterprises to support prices and weak demand. The 2506 contract may rebound due to delivery games [4][6][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On May 7, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price hit a new low. The main contract 2506 opened at 8420 yuan/ton and closed at 8290 yuan/ton, down 0.96% from the previous settlement. The open interest of the 2505 main contract was 182,782 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts on May 8 was 68,686 lots, a decrease of 244 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon declined. The price of oxygenated 553 silicon in East China was 9100 - 9300 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton; the price of 421 silicon was 9900 - 10300 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton [1]. - The consumption of organic silicon DMC was stable, with a quotation of 11300 - 11800 yuan/ton. The overall operating capacity of domestic monomers decreased due to the resumption of some plants in East and North China and the maintenance of an 800,000 - ton plant in the northwest [1]. Strategy - The industry's total inventory pressure is relatively high, and the short - term oversupply situation is difficult to change. Industrial silicon is expected to oscillate weakly. For the unilateral strategy, it is advisable to operate within a range, and upstream enterprises can sell hedging at high prices [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On May 7, 2025, the main contract 2506 of polysilicon futures continued to decline, opening at 36,670 yuan/ton and closing at 35,520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.14% from the previous trading day. The open interest of the main contract reached 63,290 lots, and the trading volume was 135,166 lots [4]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of polysilicon re - feedstock was 35.00 - 36.00 yuan/kg; the price of dense polysilicon was 34.00 - 35.00 yuan/kg [4]. - Polysilicon factory inventory decreased, while silicon wafer inventory increased. The polysilicon inventory was 26.10 (with a month - on - month change of - 0.50%), and the silicon wafer inventory was 20.62GW (with a month - on - month change of 5.58%). The weekly polysilicon output was 22,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.75%, and the silicon wafer output was 13.29GW, a month - on - month decrease of 0.67% [5]. - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained stable [5]. - In May, the polysilicon output decreased by about 0.2 million tons month - on - month, and the silicon wafer output decreased by about 4GW month - on - month. Some enterprises have new production capacity investment expectations in May, and the registration of warehouse receipts has started [6]. Strategy - The 2506 contract may rebound due to delivery games. Investors can choose to build long positions opportunistically. If the rebound is significant, upstream enterprises can sell hedging [7].

Report Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon market shows "weak reality and weak expectation" with weak consumption, high inventory pressure, and the spot market may continue weak shock in the short term [2][3] - The polysilicon market has weakening demand, high inventory, slow de - stocking, and the 2506 contract is cautiously bullish in the short term, with upstream enterprises considering selling hedging on rallies [7][8] Summary by Related Content Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - **Futures Market**: On April 28, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price was weakly volatile. The main contract 2506 opened at 8780 yuan/ton and closed at 8800 yuan/ton, down 0.73% from the previous settlement. The position of the 2505 main contract was 188,093 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 69,417 lots, a decrease of 85 lots from the previous day [1] - **Supply Side**: The spot price of industrial silicon continued to decline. For example, the price of East China oxygen - passed 553 silicon was 9400 - 9700 (- 50) yuan/ton. Although some silicon plants reduced production or had maintenance due to losses, the expected production capacity in the southwest region during the wet season would gradually be released, and the supply pressure was not significantly relieved [1][2] - **Demand Side**: The demand was weak. The downstream polysilicon and organic silicon maintained low operating rates, and downstream enterprises were cautious in purchasing. The organic silicon DMC quotation was 11000 - 11800 (- 200) yuan/ton, and the overall operating rate of monomer enterprises was expected to decline [1][2] Strategy The industry's consumption is weak, and the inventory pressure is large. The spot market lacks positive drivers in the short term and may continue to oscillate weakly [3] Polysilicon Market Analysis - **Futures Market**: On April 28, 2025, the main contract 2506 of polysilicon futures fell sharply, opening at 38,390 yuan/ton and closing at 37,780 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.05% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 55,092 lots, and the trading volume was 80,862 lots [5] - **Spot Market**: The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The polysilicon manufacturers' inventory and silicon wafer inventory increased. The polysilicon inventory was 25.90 (a month - on - month change of 3.19%), and the silicon wafer inventory was 19.53GW (a month - on - month change of 7.19%). The weekly polysilicon output was 22,800 tons (a month - on - month change of 2.24%), and the silicon wafer output was 13.38GW (a month - on - month change of - 1.40%) [5][6] Strategy - In the short term, the 2506 contract is cautiously bullish. Upstream enterprises should consider selling hedging on rallies if there is a significant rebound. - For options, consider buying a small amount of out - of - the - money call options [8]