1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand imbalance in the pig market persists, with supply exceeding demand, causing downward pressure on pig prices. In the short - term, the supply side has pressure, and the demand growth is limited. However, it is expected that the supply - demand pattern will gradually improve in the second half of 2026, which will support long - term prices. It is recommended to conduct reverse arbitrage operations in pig futures [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: Pig prices broke through downward, with the main contract 2511 falling 3.24% weekly [6][10]. - **Market Outlook**: The supply side has pressure in the near - term. The demand has slightly recovered but the growth is limited. The oversupply situation continues, leading to weak price performance. It is expected that the supply - demand pattern will improve in the second half of 2026, supporting long - term prices. It is recommended to conduct reverse arbitrage operations in pig futures [6]. 3.2 Futures Market Situation - **Price Movement**: The main contract 2511 fell 3.24% weekly [10]. - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipts**: As of September 19, the net short position of the top 20 holders in pig futures was 25,804 lots, an increase of 10,059 lots from last week. The number of futures warehouse receipts was 428, unchanged from last week [16]. - **Contract Spreads**: The spread between lh2511 and lh2601 contracts was - 525, and the spread between lh2511 and lh2603 contracts was - 15 [21]. 3.3 Spot Market Situation - **Base Difference**: The base difference of the September contract was - 85 yuan/ton, and that of the November contract was 75 yuan/ton this week [26]. - **Spot Price**: The national average pig price was 12.97 yuan/kg this week, a decrease of 0.52 yuan/kg from last week and 6.22% from last month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 28.00 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week and a 1.93% decrease from the same period last month [33]. - **Pork and Sow Price**: On September 11, the national average pork price was 24.7 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.13 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average price of binary sows was 32.51 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week [37]. - **Pig - Grain Ratio**: As of the week of August 20, 2025, the pig - grain ratio was 5.89, a decrease of 0.05 from the previous week [42]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - **Sow Inventory**: In late July 2025, the sow inventory was 40.41 million heads, a decrease of 10,000 heads from the previous month and a 0.025% decrease year - on - year, reaching 103.6% of the normal inventory. In August, the sow inventory of 123 large - scale farms decreased by 0.83% month - on - month and increased by 1.86% year - on - year. The inventory of 85 small and medium - sized farms decreased by 0.09% month - on - month and increased by 5.92% year - on - year [47]. - **Pig Inventory**: In Q2 2023, the national pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, an increase of 7.16 million heads from the end of the previous quarter and 9.14 million heads year - on - year. In August, the pig inventory of 123 large - scale farms increased by 1.11% month - on - month and 5.28% year - on - year. The inventory of 85 small and medium - sized farms in July increased by 2.49% month - on - month and 7.23% year - on - year [53]. - **Slaughter Volume and Average Weight**: In August, the slaughter volume of 123 large - scale farms was 10.7035 million heads, an increase of 2.56% month - on - month and 23.49% year - on - year. The slaughter volume of 85 small and medium - sized farms in July was 473,700 heads, a decrease of 1.44% month - on - month and an increase of 54.30% year - on - year. The average slaughter weight of national outer - ternary pigs this week was 123.51 kg, an increase of 0.04 kg from last week [58]. 3.5 Industry Situation - **Breeding Profit**: As of September 19, the breeding profit of purchased piglets was a loss of 199.31 yuan/head, with the loss increasing by 37.38 yuan/head. The breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised pigs was a loss of 24.44 yuan/head, a decrease of 41.28 yuan/head month - on - month. The egg - laying hen breeding profit was 0.17 yuan/head, an increase of 0.19 yuan/head week - on - week, and the 817 meat - hybrid chicken breeding profit was 1.54 yuan/head [63]. - **Import Volume**: In August, China's pork import volume was 80,000 tons, a 11.11% year - on - year decrease. From January to August, the cumulative pork import volume was 710,000 tons, a 1.43% year - on - year increase [68]. - **Substitute Products**: As of the week of September 19, the white - striped chicken price was 14.3 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week. As of the week of September 18, the average national price difference between standard and fat pigs was - 0.42 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.02 from last week [73]. - **Feed Situation**: As of September 18, the soybean meal price was 3025.43 yuan/ton, a decrease of 54 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the corn price was 2360.59 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.49 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of September 19, the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index closed at 898.03, a 1.84% decrease from last week. The price of fattening pig compound feed was 3.35 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week. In August 2025, the monthly feed output was 2.9272 million tons, an increase of 99,900 tons month - on - month [78][82][86]. - **CPI**: As of August 2025, China's CPI decreased by 0.4% year - on - year [90]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - **Slaughter and Inventory**: In the 38th week, the slaughter enterprise's开工 rate was 31.77%, an increase of 0.37 percentage points from last week and higher than the same period last year. The domestic frozen product storage rate was 17.56%, unchanged from last week [93]. - **Slaughter Volume and Catering Consumption**: As of July 2025, the slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises was 31.66 million heads, a 5.32% increase from the previous month. In August 2025, the national catering revenue was 44.957 billion yuan, a 2.1% year - on - year increase [98]. 3.7 Pig - Related Stocks - The report mentions the stock trends of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis content is provided [99]