Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The market entered the accelerated weight - reduction and de - stocking phase in June. The July and September contracts will trade the de - stocking logic. The acceleration of de - stocking is beneficial for the repair of the far - end expectation. The January contract will be re - valued, and the market expectation has turned stronger. Attention should be paid to stop - loss and take - profit. The short - term support level of the LH2509 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: Henan's spot price is 14,450 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton year - on - year; Sichuan's is 14,150 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton; Guangdong's is 15,540 yuan/ton, unchanged year - on - year [2] - **Futures Prices**: The price of the Pig 2507 contract is 13,205 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton year - on - year; Pig 2509 is 13,605 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton; Pig 2511 is 13,410 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan/ton [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Pig 2507 contract is 8,286 lots, down 810 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 18,799 lots, down 2,932 lots; Pig 2509 has a trading volume of 30,619 lots, down 21,042 lots, and an open interest of 75,650 lots, down 3,798 lots; Pig 2511 has a trading volume of 8,779 lots, down 3,813 lots, and an open interest of 35,903 lots, down 982 lots [2] - **Price Spreads**: The basis of Pig 2507 is 1,245 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton year - on - year; Pig 2509's is 845 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton; Pig 2511's is 1,040 yuan/ton, down 220 yuan/ton. The 7 - 9 spread is - 400 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton; the 9 - 11 spread is 195 yuan/ton, down 205 yuan/ton [2] 2. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 1, with a value range of [- 2,2] for integers, indicating a "neutral" to "slightly bullish" sentiment [3] 3. Market Logic - In mid - to - late May, the quantity - price performance confirmed the occurrence of passive inventory accumulation. In late May, the second - fattening group entered the market in advance, accelerating the inventory accumulation. In June, it entered the de - stocking phase. The decision of the second - fattening group when the pre - fattened pigs enter the loss stage needs attention. The time point of de - stocking to the bottom is still uncertain. Multiple companies announced a policy to ban the sale of second - fattened pigs, which accelerates de - stocking. If the average weight per head decreases by 10KG, the pork supply in the fourth quarter will decrease by 6 - 8% with the same basic inventory. The January contract is a pure peak - season contract before the Spring Festival, with a consumption increase of over 30% compared to the third quarter [4]