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生猪:去库路径改变,等待现货印证
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-22 09:35
Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - This week, the spot price of live pigs showed a strong performance, with the price in Henan rising from 14.08 yuan/kg last week to 14.43 yuan/kg, and the national average slaughter weight decreasing by 0.17% week-on-week. The futures price of live pigs also had a strong oscillation, with the LH2509 contract closing at 13,895 yuan/ton, up from 13,790 yuan/ton last week, and the basis increasing from 290 yuan/ton to 535 yuan/ton [1][2]. - Next week, the spot price of live pigs is expected to remain volatile. The group's adjustment of slaughter volume has a significant impact during the off - season. Despite the group's weight - reduction plan, short - term retail investor reluctance to sell, active replenishment by secondary fattening groups, and the expectation of policy procurement support the price. The supply side is facing complex inventory situations, and the demand is in the off - season with limited downstream support. The policy of procurement provides a price floor, but it also complicates the de - stocking path. The core of the inventory cycle rotation in the second half of the year lies in the rhythm of the social circle [3]. - In the futures market, the LH2509 contract still has a short - term bullish sentiment. The short - term support level is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of spread repair and stop - loss and take - profit operations [4]. Summary by Directory This Week's Market Review (6.16 - 6.22) Spot Market - The price of 20KG piglets in Henan dropped from 39.1 yuan/kg last week to 37.8 yuan/kg, and the price of live pigs in Henan rose from 14.08 yuan/kg to 14.43 yuan/kg. The price of 50KG binary sows nationwide remained at 1,621 yuan/head. The supply was tight as the group's incremental supply was limited and retail investors were reluctant to sell. The demand increased slightly compared to the beginning of the month but was further suppressed by rising temperatures, and the average slaughter weight decreased by 0.17% week - on - week [1]. Futures Market - The LH2509 contract of live pig futures had a strong oscillation, with a high of 13,900 yuan/ton, a low of 13,715 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 13,895 yuan/ton, up from 13,790 yuan/ton last week. The basis of the LH2509 contract increased from 290 yuan/ton to 535 yuan/ton [2]. Next Week's Market Outlook (6.23 - 6.29) Spot Market - The spot price of live pigs is expected to remain volatile. The group is reducing weight according to the plan, but retail investors are reluctant to sell, and secondary fattening groups are actively replenishing. The supply side is facing complex inventory situations, with accelerated inventory accumulation in the retail and secondary fattening sectors and more obvious incremental supply in the third quarter. The demand is in the off - season, and the downstream support is limited. The policy of procurement provides a price floor and stimulates further pressure on retail investors and secondary fattening, making the de - stocking path more complex [3]. Futures Market - The LH2509 contract price closed at 13,895 yuan/ton on June 20. The positive fat - to - lean price difference reduces the willingness of retail investors to sell in a concentrated manner. Secondary fattening is active, and the utilization rate of pens has increased. The group is de - stocking, and there is still short - term bullish sentiment. The short - term support level is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of spread repair [4]. Other Data - This week's basis was 535 yuan/ton, and the LH2507 - LH2509 spread was - 560 yuan/ton [9]. - The average slaughter weight this week was 125.55KG, down from 125.76KG last week. In April, the pork output was 5.268 million tons, a 3.7% month - on - month increase, and in May, the pork import volume was 93,700 tons, a 16.17% month - on - month increase [12].
去库启动,远端预期转强
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-03 04:10
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The market entered the accelerated weight - reduction and de - stocking phase in June. The July and September contracts will trade the de - stocking logic. The acceleration of de - stocking is beneficial for the repair of the far - end expectation. The January contract will be re - valued, and the market expectation has turned stronger. Attention should be paid to stop - loss and take - profit. The short - term support level of the LH2509 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: Henan's spot price is 14,450 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton year - on - year; Sichuan's is 14,150 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton; Guangdong's is 15,540 yuan/ton, unchanged year - on - year [2] - **Futures Prices**: The price of the Pig 2507 contract is 13,205 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton year - on - year; Pig 2509 is 13,605 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton; Pig 2511 is 13,410 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan/ton [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Pig 2507 contract is 8,286 lots, down 810 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 18,799 lots, down 2,932 lots; Pig 2509 has a trading volume of 30,619 lots, down 21,042 lots, and an open interest of 75,650 lots, down 3,798 lots; Pig 2511 has a trading volume of 8,779 lots, down 3,813 lots, and an open interest of 35,903 lots, down 982 lots [2] - **Price Spreads**: The basis of Pig 2507 is 1,245 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton year - on - year; Pig 2509's is 845 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton; Pig 2511's is 1,040 yuan/ton, down 220 yuan/ton. The 7 - 9 spread is - 400 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton; the 9 - 11 spread is 195 yuan/ton, down 205 yuan/ton [2] 2. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 1, with a value range of [- 2,2] for integers, indicating a "neutral" to "slightly bullish" sentiment [3] 3. Market Logic - In mid - to - late May, the quantity - price performance confirmed the occurrence of passive inventory accumulation. In late May, the second - fattening group entered the market in advance, accelerating the inventory accumulation. In June, it entered the de - stocking phase. The decision of the second - fattening group when the pre - fattened pigs enter the loss stage needs attention. The time point of de - stocking to the bottom is still uncertain. Multiple companies announced a policy to ban the sale of second - fattened pigs, which accelerates de - stocking. If the average weight per head decreases by 10KG, the pork supply in the fourth quarter will decrease by 6 - 8% with the same basic inventory. The January contract is a pure peak - season contract before the Spring Festival, with a consumption increase of over 30% compared to the third quarter [4]
生猪月报:去库压力依旧维持,偏空格局下猪价偏弱运行-20250530
Zhong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-05-30 12:22
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The current pig market is in a bearish pattern, with increasing inventory reduction pressure on the spot side. Short - term consumption support is insufficient to reverse the price trend. One should be vigilant about the risk of price decline after the Dragon Boat Festival. The recommended strategy is to mainly short on rallies for contracts in July, September, and November, and pay attention to the opportunity of the September - November reverse spread [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot Performance - **Live Pig Spot Price**: This week, the national average live pig price increased by 0.06 yuan to 14.47 yuan/kg. Prices in Henan, Yunnan, Shanxi, and Sichuan increased, while that in Chongqing remained stable [3][12]. - **Sow Spot Price**: The average spot price of culled sows in sample breeding enterprises decreased by 0.12 yuan to 10.67 yuan/kg. The average spot price of 50 - kg binary sows remained flat at 1,641.43 yuan/head. The market was weak with low trading enthusiasm [3][14]. - **Piglet Spot Price**: The piglet market showed a hidden decline. The average出栏 price of 7 - kg piglets decreased by 6.91 yuan to 503.57 yuan/head, while that of 15 - kg piglets increased by 12.86 yuan to 572.15 yuan/head [3][16]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Performance - **Short - term Supply**: In the short term, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening has decreased, and some areas have shifted from active inventory replenishment to inventory reduction. The increase in the theoretical market supply of commercial pigs from April to June 2025 will slow down. The average slaughter weight of live pigs remained stable at 124.13 kg. The planned slaughter volume of large - scale farms in May and June is expected to increase [4][23]. - **Medium - term Supply**: From January to April, the number of newly born piglets increased. In April, the number of newly born piglets, the survival rate of piglets, and the average number of healthy piglets per litter all increased, extending the pressure of market supply in the third quarter [4]. - **Long - term Supply**: In April, the inventory of reproductive sows decreased by 10,000 heads, but no inflection point in far - month production capacity was indicated. The proportion of ternary and binary reproductive sows remained unchanged, and the culling volume of reproductive sows decreased [4][31]. - **Demand**: During the Dragon Boat Festival, the market demand in some areas is expected to increase, but the increase is limited. After the festival, the market may return to the off - season, and demand is likely to decline [4][36]. 3.3 Cost and Profit Analysis - **Cost**: The cost of purchasing piglets increased by 53.72 yuan to 1,735.94 yuan/head, while the cost of self - breeding and self - raising decreased by 2.03 yuan to 1,615.93 yuan/head. The prices of corn and soybean meal decreased slightly [40][42]. - **Profit**: The self - raising profit of live pigs decreased to 103.93 yuan/head, and the profit of purchasing piglets increased to 51.31 yuan/head. The slaughter profit decreased to - 20.1 yuan/head [44]. 3.4 Other Key Data - **Pig - Grain Ratio**: The national pig - grain ratio decreased by 0.13 to 5.98, and the piglet feed - to - meat ratio in April remained stable at 2.8 [47]. - **Frozen Product Inventory**: The frozen product storage rate of key slaughtering enterprises remained at 17.28%, with limited inventory fluctuations [34].
生猪:去库即将启动,远端预期转强
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-05-30 01:55
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The current stage will enter the phase of accelerated weight - reduction and de - stocking. If the policy to ban secondary fattening is fully implemented, it means restricting inventory accumulation, and accelerated de - stocking is conducive to the repair of long - term expectations. The January contract, as a pure peak - season contract before the Spring Festival, is entering a stage of enhanced liquidity with strengthening expectations. Attention should be paid to stop - profit and stop - loss. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: The Henan spot price is 14,500 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton year - on - year), the Sichuan spot price is 14,300 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the Guangdong spot price is 15,540 yuan/ton (up 200 yuan/ton year - on - year) [2]. - **Futures Prices**: The price of the live - hog 2507 contract is 13,215 yuan/ton (down 45 yuan/ton year - on - year), the 2509 contract is 13,640 yuan/ton (up 80 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the 2511 contract is 13,240 yuan/ton (up 130 yuan/ton year - on - year) [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the live - hog 2507 contract is 9,096 lots (up 4,567 lots compared to the previous day), with an open interest of 21,731 lots (down 1,993 lots compared to the previous day); the 2509 contract has a trading volume of 51,661 lots (up 34,666 lots compared to the previous day), with an open interest of 79,448 lots (up 1,488 lots compared to the previous day); the 2511 contract has a trading volume of 12,592 lots (up 5,939 lots compared to the previous day), with an open interest of 36,885 lots (up 460 lots compared to the previous day) [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis of the live - hog 2507 contract is 1,285 yuan/ton (down 5 yuan/ton year - on - year), the 2509 contract is 860 yuan/ton (down 130 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the 2511 contract is 1,260 yuan/ton (down 180 yuan/ton year - on - year). The 7 - 9 spread is - 425 yuan/ton (down 125 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the 9 - 11 spread is 400 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton year - on - year) [2]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 1, with the range of values for trend intensity being integers in the [- 2,2] interval. The strength levels are classified as weak, relatively weak, neutral, relatively strong, and strong, where - 2 represents the most bearish view and 2 represents the most bullish view [3]. 3.3 Market Logic - The volume - price performance in mid - to - late May confirms the occurrence of passive inventory accumulation. Recently, the secondary - fattening group is worried about later policy restrictions on secondary fattening, so they entered the market in advance and concentratedly at the end of the month, accelerating the inventory - accumulation process. The current stage will enter the phase of accelerated weight - reduction and de - stocking [4].
生猪:结构转换,关注去库持续性
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-05-25 10:09
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Market Review (5.19 - 5.25)**: In the spot market, pig prices were weak. The price of 20KG piglets in Henan was 43 yuan/kg (last week: 44.1 yuan/kg), and the price of live pigs in Henan was 14.3 yuan/kg (last week: 14.85 yuan/kg). The price of 50KG binary sows nationwide was 1631 yuan/head (unchanged from last week). On the supply side, the willingness of individual farmers to sell increased, and group farms also increased their sales. On the demand side, recent demand was weak, and slaughter volume was slightly lower than expected, but the demand for secondary fattening increased in the second half of the week. The average slaughter weight nationwide was 126.5KG (last week: 126.42KG), a week-on-week increase of 0.06%. In the futures market, pig futures prices were also weak. The highest price of the LH2509 contract was 13,730 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,475 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 13,515 yuan/ton (last week: 13,660 yuan/ton). The basis of the LH2509 contract was 785 yuan/ton (last week: 1,190 yuan/ton) [1][2]. - **Market Outlook (5.26 - 6.1)**: In the spot market, pig prices will fluctuate weakly. During the off - season, the adjustment of group farm sales has a significant impact on prices. In early May, group farms reduced sales to support prices, but in the middle and late May, downstream consumption was weak, slaughter volume remained low, and enterprises increased sales, causing prices to drop rapidly. There is still room for inventory accumulation, but the incremental driving force for inventory accumulation is limited. The speculative demand in May still has support, but the spot pressure is gradually increasing. In the futures market, the price of the LH2509 contract closed at 13,515 yuan/ton on May 23. There are signs of passive pig retention, and the central price of the futures market will continue to decline. If secondary fattening fails to form a concentrated entry situation, the inventory reduction stage may be long, and the price difference structure will switch to a reverse spread pattern. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 12,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,500 yuan/ton [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Spot Market**: The prices of piglets, live pigs, and binary sows were provided, along with changes in supply and demand. The average slaughter weight increased slightly week - on - week [1]. - **Futures Market**: The price range, closing price, and basis of the LH2509 contract were given, showing a weak trend [2]. 3.2 Market Outlook - **Spot Market**: The impact of group farm sales adjustment on prices, supply and demand conditions, and inventory accumulation were analyzed, indicating a weak price trend [3]. - **Futures Market**: The price of the LH2509 contract, the situation of passive pig retention, the possible price difference structure change, and the short - term support and pressure levels were discussed [4]. 3.3 Other Data - **Basis and Month - to - Month Difference**: The basis was 785 yuan/ton, and the LH2507 - LH2509 month - to - month difference was - 310 yuan/ton [9]. - **Supply**: The average slaughter weight was 126.5KG. In March, pork production was 508 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 39%. In April, pork imports were 80,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.8% [12].