Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - Last week, the spot and futures prices of live hogs oscillated and strengthened synchronously. The main futures contract LH2603 rose from 11,345 yuan/ton to 11,680 yuan/ton, and the average price of spot ternary hogs increased from 11.43 yuan/kg to 11.85 yuan/kg. The core drivers were the reduction in supply and price support from the breeding side, terminal holiday stocking, and the restocking of second-round fattening hogs. It is strong in the short term but still constrained by supply pressure in the medium term [1]. - The LH2603 contract is expected to trade in the range of 11,600 - 11,900 yuan/ton in the short term. Attention should be paid to the support at 11,500 yuan/ton and the resistance at 11,900 yuan/ton. For the far - month LH2605 contract, long positions can be established at low prices to bet on the supply contraction after the second quarter of next year [2]. Summary by Directory Market Review and Outlook - The main futures contract LH2603 rose from 11,345 yuan/ton to 11,680 yuan/ton, and the average price of spot ternary hogs increased from 11.43 yuan/kg to 11.85 yuan/kg. The core drivers were the reduction in supply and price support from the breeding side, terminal holiday stocking, and the restocking of second - round fattening hogs. The pig - grain ratio is about 4.98:1, close to the break - even line [1]. Supply Side - The supply side is reducing supply and supporting prices, and the slaughter rhythm has slowed down. The monthly planned slaughter completion rate of leading enterprises is high, and the slaughter rhythm has slowed down at the end of the month. Retail farmers are "selling large hogs and keeping small ones", and the supply of standard hogs is tight. In December, the planned slaughter of sample enterprises was 27.72 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 4.64%, but the actual weekly slaughter volume decreased by about 3% month - on - month. The utilization rate of second - round fattening pens is relatively high, and there is still pressure for concentrated slaughter before the Spring Festival, but short - term restocking boosts the demand for standard hogs [2]. Demand Side - Driven by holiday stocking and weather, the slaughtering operation rate is at a high level. The delay of southern bacon - curing and the cooling in the north have led to an increase in terminal consumption, and the orders of slaughtering enterprises are at a high level. On December 26, the sample slaughter volume was 196,600 heads, a week - on - week increase of 0.21% [2]. Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data | Indicator | Unit | Latest Week | Previous Period | Weekly Change | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Piglets | yuan/head | 217.38 | 218.57 | -1.19 | Weekly | | Weekly Average Slaughter Weight | kg | 123.55 | 123.67 | -0.12 | Weekly | | Profit from Purchased Piglets | yuan/head | -223.82 | -233.73 | 9.91 | Weekly | | Profit from Self - Breeding and Self - Raising | yuan/head | -66.57 | -73.15 | 6.58 | Weekly | | Slaughtering Operation Rate | % | 40.12 | 39.59 | 0.53 | Weekly | [4] Factors to Watch - Changes in the inventory of breeding sows, the progress of consumption recovery, and policy regulation dynamics [3]