Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The report predicts that the price of the 2509 contract of live pigs will undergo a period of oscillatory adjustment and suggests temporary observation [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Market Overview - On June 25, 2025, the national average live pig slaughter price was 14.48 yuan/kg, up 0.02 yuan or 0.14% from the previous day; the futures prices of various contracts all increased, with the 07 contract rising 0.48% to 13,615 yuan/ton, and the 09 contract rising 0.43% to 14,000 yuan/ton; the main basis in Henan remained unchanged at 800 yuan/ton [6]. Market Dynamics - On June 25, there were 750 registered live pig warrants; the LH2507 contract is mainly about spot-futures convergence and delivery games, and the far-month contracts are oscillating due to factors such as weight reduction benefiting the future market and expected increase in future market supply; the main contract (LH2509) reduced its position by 369 lots today, with a position of about 81,000 lots, a high of 14,015 yuan/ton, a low of 13,930 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 14,000 yuan/ton [2]. Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited; from the perspective of piglet data, the overall slaughter volume of live pigs will increase oscillatingly in the second and third quarters of 2025; the first half of the year is the off-season for demand, and the second half is the peak season [3]. - Based on historical data and current fundamentals, the spread between fat and standard pigs may oscillate and adjust [3]. - The short-side logic includes slow weight reduction in the breeding sector, continuous increase in future slaughter volume, and limited support from demand for pig prices as the second and third quarters are not the peak consumption season; the long-side logic includes room for an increase in frozen product inventory, strong resilience of spot prices, limited increase in future slaughter volume, and the gradual entry into the peak consumption season in the third and fourth quarters [3]. Strategy Recommendations - The view is oscillatory adjustment [4]. - The core logic is that the slaughter volume of live pigs may increase monthly until December, and it is difficult for pig prices to rise significantly under sufficient supply; the current live pig spot market shows a benign triangular relationship, indicating that demand also supports pig prices, and it is difficult for pig prices to fall significantly; the 2509 contract is at a discount to the spot, and weight reduction in the breeding sector benefits the 09 contract, so it is recommended to wait and see [4].