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生猪日报:出栏压力增加,价格回落较多-20250515
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-05-15 13:19
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - side pressure of live pigs is gradually emerging, with prices showing an obvious downward trend. The overall pig price is expected to fluctuate. The futures market also declined significantly, but the continuous decline space is limited [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Information - **Spot Prices**: Today, live pig prices across the country showed an obvious downward trend. For example, the price in Henan dropped from 15.06 to 14.96, and in Guangdong from 15.20 to 15.04. The average price remained unchanged at 14.37 [4]. - **Futures Prices**: All futures contracts showed a downward trend. For instance, LH01 dropped from 13825 to 13720, and LH09 dropped from 14020 to 13780 [4]. - **Sow/Piglet Prices**: Piglet prices decreased from 529 to 517, while sow prices remained unchanged at 1631 [4]. 3.2 Profit Information - **Spot Breeding Profits**: Self - breeding and self - raising profits decreased from 85.05 to 84.33, while profits from purchasing piglets increased from 48.53 to 58.46 [4]. 3.3 Slaughter - end Information - The slaughter volume decreased from 147682 to 146858, a decrease of 824 [4]. 3.4 Price Difference Information - **Contract Price Differences**: For example, LH7 - 9 increased from - 375 to - 285, while LH9 - 1 decreased from 195 to 60 [4]. - **Size Pig Price Differences**: The price difference between standard pigs and medium - sized pigs decreased from 0.28 to 0.27, while the price difference between large pigs and standard pigs increased from - 0.15 to - 0.13 [4]. 3.5 Market Situation and Forecast - The supply - side pressure is gradually emerging. The enthusiasm for secondary fattening has declined. The scale enterprises' monthly - end出栏 rhythm has accelerated, and it is expected to continue in the short term. The overall supply pressure is limited, and the pig price is expected to fluctuate. The futures market also has limited continuous decline space [4][5]. 3.6 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Mainly fluctuate. - Arbitrage: LH79 reverse arbitrage. - Options: Sell the wide - straddle strategy [6].