Z0015545 财达期货｜生猪玉米周报 财达期货｜生猪、玉米周报 2025-11-24 生猪价格重心下行，玉米盘面突破 2200 研究员 姓名：田金莲 F3046737 生猪 上周生猪期货延续下行趋势，LH2601 合约报收 11350 元/吨， 较前周结算价下跌 3.73%。 从业资格号： 投资咨询号： 现货方面，全国外三元生猪市场价为 11.74 元/公斤，环比下 跌 0.22 元/公斤。利润方面，截至 11 月 21 日，自繁自养生猪养殖 利润为-135.9 元/头，环比下降 21.09 元/头；外购仔猪养殖利润 为-234.63 元/头，环比下降 28.99 元/头；猪粮比价为 5.23，周环 比下降 0.15。 上周全国生猪现货价格先跌后稳，市场供应相对宽松，散户扛 价惜售情绪较弱，周初价格再度下跌；随着气温下降，局部需求有 所回暖，养殖场成交好转，生猪价格止跌趋稳。目前来看，养殖端 低价抵触情绪升温，但整体出栏压力仍存，同时终端需求暂未有较 大提升，屠宰部分虽有增加，但供应增量大于需求增量，需求端支 撑有限，生猪供应过剩的局面仍在，预计短期生猪价格反弹发力， 持续关注养殖场出栏节奏及出栏情绪变化 ...

研究所 农产品研发报告 生猪日报 2025 年 11 月 19 日 【生猪日报】供应略有增加 价格震荡运行 研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号： F3045719 投资咨询证号： Z0015458 联系方式： chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.c om.cn | | | | | 生猪价格日报 | | 2025/11/19 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 现货价格 | | | | | | | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 变 化 | | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 变 化 | | 河南（0） | 11.76 | 11.62 | 0.14 | 山西（-100） | 11.30 | 11.17 | 0.13 | | 湖北（0） | 11.33 | 11.23 | 0.10 | 辽 宁 | 11.44 | 11.37 | 0.07 | | 安徽（200） | 11.81 | 11.74 | 0.07 | 吉林（-300） | 11.47 | 11.40 | 0.07 | | 湖南（100） | 11.44 | 11.33 ...

2025 年 11 月 17 日 生猪：肥标价差走弱，降温涨价预期落空 | 周小球 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | | wuhao8@gtht.com | | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | | 生猪基本面数据 | | | | | | | 价 格 | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 同 比 | | | 河南现货 | 元/吨 | 11980 | | 50 | | | 四川现货 | 元/吨 | 11400 | | -50 | | | 广东现货 | 元/吨 | 12360 | | -200 | | | 四川现货 | 元/吨 | 11400 | | -50 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 广东现货 | 元/吨 | 12360 | | -200 | | | 期 货 | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 比 同 | | | | 生猪26 ...

来源：市场资讯 （来源：大佑农饲料） 当所有养殖户都在期待腌腊季拉动猪价上涨时，市场潜藏的风险已然加剧。当前的压栏、观望与进度分 化，正为年末的价格埋下隐患。提醒大家，需警惕一致预期下的"旺季不旺"陷阱，并强烈建议锁定利 润，规避风险。 中大猪开始走弱 据反馈当前大猪价格开始走弱，或引发养殖端大猪增量出栏，从而使猪价大跌的风险陡增。特别是近期 局地养殖户也有爆料，随着天气越来越冷，当地生猪疫病数量呈上升态势，小飞也零星偶发，虽尚在可 控范围，但是在情绪的影响下，或导致生猪提前出栏。综合来看，11月中下旬生猪出栏仍面临较大压 力。钢联最新数据显示，11月上旬重点省份养殖企业生猪出栏计划完成率为31.64%，整体进度稳中偏 慢。这也就意味着生猪压力后移。 规模场出栏节奏偏慢 | | | Mysteel农产品重点省份养殖企业生猪计划出栏完成情况(20251111) | | --- | --- | --- | | 省份 | 11月10日计划完成度 | 具体情况 | | 黑宝 | 34.00% | 整体月度计划稳中推进,部分企业计划管少进度略快。 | | 辽内 | 32. 25% | 上旬部分企业扛价情绪较浓,整体月度 ...

期价反弹空间有限 摘 要： 行情展望： 供应端，养殖端出栏或增加，规模企业增量，散户出 栏较积极，供应端压力或增加。需求端，终端消费有所恢 复，需求好转，但幅度有限，短线难以形成强有力支撑。 综合来看，主流价格区间或维持11.4-12.5 元/公斤 的水平。生猪市场供应端压力或增加，需求无明显增量， 因此价格或继续下行。操作上建议反弹后高空。 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 作者姓名：高剑飞 作者姓名：蒯三可 期货从业资格号：F0279818 期货交易咨询从业证号：Z0014742 邮箱：gaojianfei@nzfco.com 关注因素：1.能繁母猪存栏变化；2.消费复苏进度；3.政策调控 动态等。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 证监许可【2011】1775 号 期货从业资格号：F3040522 期货投资咨询从业证号：Z0015369 邮箱：kuaisanke@nzfco.com 电话：025-52865121 生猪专题报告 1.生猪价格行情回顾 图 1：生猪期现货价格（元/吨） 2.供应情况分析 请务必阅 ...

期价震荡偏弱，空头主导 摘 要： 行情展望： 供应端来看，随着规模场出栏计划逐步增加，市场猪 源供应趋于宽松，同时二次育肥进场积极性减弱，屠宰企 业收购顺畅，压价心态增强。需求端来看，终端消费尚未 出现明显提振，屠宰企业目前仍以鲜销为主，主动分割入 库意愿不强，普遍维持较高的鲜销率。综合来看，生猪价 格维持缓慢下跌走势，生猪主力LH2601合约跌破5日均线 关键支撑位，MACD 绿柱持续放大，技术形态偏向弱势， 短期下行压力仍存。 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 作者姓名：高剑飞 作者姓名：蒯三可 期货从业资格号：F0279818 期货交易咨询从业证号：Z0014742 邮箱：gaojianfei@nzfco.com 关注因素：1.能繁母猪存栏变化；2.消费复苏进度；3.政策调控 动态等。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 证监许可【2011】1775 号 期货从业资格号：F3040522 期货投资咨询从业证号：Z0015369 邮箱：kuaisanke@nzfco.com 电话：025-52865121 生猪专 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. Core Views - The current slaughter scale and future theoretical出栏量 remain high, and the weight has decreased slightly during this decline. In the medium term, with a significantly high supply pressure, pig prices are likely to fall rather than rise. In the short term, due to the resonance of multiple factors and the persistence of factors supporting the spot rebound, the futures market is prone to fluctuations due to changes in market drivers under high positions. A short - term rebound is expected. Mid - term, one can gradually establish reverse spread positions during the rebound and wait for the pressure level to arrive before gradually short - selling [11][12]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to wait for the 01 and 03 contracts to rebound and then short - sell at high prices for the unilateral strategy, and gradually establish 3 - 7 and 3 - 9 reverse spreads for the arbitrage strategy [13]. Summary by Section 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Spot Market**: Due to the warming demand after the temperature drop, along with the reluctance of small - scale farmers to sell and the entry of second - round fattening, domestic pig prices continued to rise last week, but the increase was small, and a wait - and - see sentiment emerged after the price increase. The slaughter volume remained high during the week. Group farms accelerated their sales, with a high plan completion rate, while the reluctance of small - scale farmers to sell increased, and the number of pigs in pens rose. The spread between fat and standard pigs continued to widen. The average price in Henan rose by 0.56 yuan to 11.96 yuan/kg, in Sichuan by 0.7 yuan to 11.6 yuan/kg, and in Guangdong by 0.2 yuan to 11.72 yuan/kg. The group's plan completion rate has been high this month, and there is room for a short - term reduction in supply near the end of the month, which supports prices. The demand side is stimulated by the temperature drop, with high slaughter orders, and there is still enthusiasm for second - round fattening in some areas. Pig prices may still rise slightly from next week to the end of the month [11][22]. - **Supply Side**: In September, the official sow inventory was 40.35 million heads, a slight month - on - month decrease of 0.1%, still 3.5% more than the normal sow inventory. The continuous increase in sow production capacity since last year may lead to a weak fundamental situation this year. However, there is a strong expectation of forced capacity reduction on the policy side, which may improve the supply next year in the context of no significant losses this year. The implementation of policy - driven capacity reduction needs to be closely monitored in the coming months. According to the published data, the month - on - month decrease in sow inventory in September was 0.33% according to Steel Union and 0.84% according to Yongyi, indicating that capacity reduction is still slow. From the perspective of piglet data, there is a significant increase in the basic supply from now to March next year. However, the continuous weight reduction of group farms from June to August has led to some pre - emptive supply, which may partially offset the current supply pressure. It is necessary to focus on where this wave of weight goes and whether there will be inventory accumulation at the beginning of the fourth quarter. In the short term, the market still has a large and excessive supply, as the slaughter volume has remained high after the National Day, the frozen meat inventory has continued to rise, and the average trading weight of live pigs is larger year - on - year and rising month - on - month [11]. - **Demand Side**: After the National Day, the demand side has shown some improvement. On the one hand, low prices have stimulated consumption, and the entry of frozen meat and second - round fattening has increased. On the other hand, basic consumption has increased after the temperature drop. However, the temperature drop from October to November is limited, and there is still some time until the Spring Festival. A significant increase in consumption will have to wait until December [11][59]. - **Trading Strategies**: For the unilateral strategy, wait for the 01 and 03 contracts to rebound and then short - sell at high prices, with a profit - to - loss ratio of 2:1 and a recommended cycle of 0.5 - 1 months, driven by supply, weight, and consumer demand. For the arbitrage strategy, gradually establish 3 - 7 and 3 - 9 reverse spreads, with a profit - to - loss ratio of 2:1 and a recommended cycle of 2 months, driven by policies, weight, basic supply, and the spread between fat and standard pigs [13]. 2. Spot and Futures Market - **Spot Price Trend**: Pig prices continued to rise slightly last week due to demand warming, reluctance of small - scale farmers to sell, and second - round fattening. The average prices in Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong all increased. Pig prices may still rise slightly from next week to the end of the month [11][22]. - **Basis and Spread Trend**: The spot price rebounded slightly, but the futures market had a weak expectation. The basis has converged, and the monthly spread still tends towards reverse spreads [25]. - **Piglet and Sow Prices**: Relevant price trend charts are provided, but no specific analysis of price trends is given in the text. 3. Supply Side - **Reproductive Sows and Changes**: In September, the official sow inventory was 40.35 million heads, a slight month - on - month decrease of 0.1%, still 3.5% more than the normal level. The continuous increase in sow production capacity since last year may lead to a weak fundamental situation this year. The expectation of policy - driven capacity reduction is strong, but capacity reduction is still slow [33]. - **Inventory and Slaughter**: From the piglet data, there is a significant increase in the basic supply from now to March next year, but the pre - emptive supply from group farms may partially offset the current pressure. The short - term market has a large and excessive supply due to high slaughter volume, rising frozen meat inventory, and increasing average trading weight [43][50]. - **Sow Culling and Sales**: Relevant data charts are provided, but no specific analysis of trends is given in the text. - **Theoretical Slaughter Volume**: There is a significant increase in the basic supply from now to March next year, but the pre - emptive supply may partially offset the pressure [43]. - **Proportion of Small and Large Pigs in Slaughter**: The low proportion of small pigs indicates limited impact of diseases, and the low proportion of large pigs means a limited number of fat pigs [46]. - **Trading and Average Weight after Slaughter**: The average trading weight of live pigs is larger year - on - year and rising month - on - month, indicating a large short - term supply [50]. - **Import and Pig Feed Month - on - Month**: Relevant data charts are provided, but no specific analysis of trends is given in the text. - **Second - Round Fattening and Pen Utilization**: Relevant data charts are provided, but no specific analysis of trends is given in the text. 4. Demand Side - **Slaughter Volume**: After the National Day, the demand side has improved, but the significant increase in consumption will have to wait until December [59]. - **Slaughter Capacity Utilization and Gross Margin**: Relevant data charts are provided, but no specific analysis of trends is given in the text. - **Spread and Price - Volume Relationship**: Relevant data charts are provided, but no specific analysis of trends is given in the text. - **Fresh - Frozen Spread and Fresh Sales Rate**: Relevant data charts are provided, but no specific analysis of trends is given in the text. 5. Cost and Profit - **Cost and Breeding Profit**: Due to factors such as feed cost and efficiency improvement, the cost is continuously declining. Pig prices are the weakest in the same period in recent years, and there have been overall losses this year despite the low cost [70]. 6. Inventory Side - **Cost and Breeding Profit**: No new content is provided in this section. - **Frozen Meat Inventory**: The frozen meat inventory is in a state of slow recovery and passive inventory accumulation [75].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - With the supporting effects of secondary fattening entry and frozen product warehousing gradually emerging, the decline of live pig prices has stopped in recent days. However, the strength of these two supports is limited and difficult to drive a significant price rebound. Before the end of October, live pig prices will not see significant adjustments and will mainly show "bottom - range fluctuations" with a relatively narrow price fluctuation range [2][21] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Supply Situation Analysis - The report presents the monthly trend chart of the inventory of reproductive sows in sample enterprises (in ten thousand heads), the weekly trend chart of the average slaughter weight of national sample commercial pigs (in kilograms), and the inventory structure of commercial pigs by weight (%) [5][7][11] 3.2 Demand Situation Analysis - The report shows the operating rate (%) of key slaughtering enterprises and the frozen product storage capacity rate (%) of key slaughtering enterprises [13][16] 3.3 Cost - Profit Analysis - The report includes the self - breeding and self - raising farming profit (yuan per head) and the profit from purchasing piglets for fattening (yuan per head) [18][20] 3.4 Market Outlook - With the supporting effects of secondary fattening entry and frozen product warehousing gradually emerging, the decline of live pig prices has stopped in recent days. But these two supports are not strong enough to drive a significant price rebound. Before the end of October, live pig prices will mainly show "bottom - range fluctuations" with a narrow price range [2][21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of live pigs dropped significantly, with the main contract 2601 falling 3.87% weekly. Considering the theoretical slaughter pressure in the near - term based on the inventory data of newborn piglets and breeding sows, and the active slaughter of large - scale farms, the supply is under pressure. The secondary fattening entry showed signs of cooling. Although the terminal demand is expected to improve with the temperature drop, the current demand is lower than expected. Overall, due to the cooling of secondary fattening entry and the loose supply - demand situation, it is expected that the price of live pigs will continue to be weak. It is recommended to conduct short - side trading operations on the live pig 2601 contract [6]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - The price of live pigs dropped significantly, with the main contract 2601 falling 3.87% weekly. The supply is under pressure due to theoretical slaughter pressure and active slaughter by large - scale farms. Secondary fattening entry supported the spot price in the early part of the month but showed signs of weakening. The terminal demand is expected to improve but is currently lower than expected. It is expected that the price of live pigs will continue to be weak, and short - side trading operations on the live pig 2601 contract are recommended [6]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The futures price dropped this week, with the main contract 2601 falling 3.87% weekly [8][11]. - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipts**: As of October 17, the net short position of the top 20 holders in live pig futures was 30,554 lots, a decrease of 2,535 lots from last week. The number of futures warehouse receipts was 111, an increase of 111 from the previous week [17]. - **Contract Spreads**: The spread between lh2601 and lh2603 contracts was 390, and the spread between lh2601 and lh2605 contracts was - 250 [22]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Base Difference**: This week, the base difference of the live pig November contract was 150 yuan/ton, and the base difference of the January contract was - 470 yuan/ton [27]. - **Price of Live Pigs and Piglets**: The average national live pig market price was 11.27 yuan/kg this week, a decrease of 0.21 yuan/kg from last week. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 22.79 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.18 yuan/kg from last week [36]. - **Pork and Breeding Sow Prices**: As of the week of October 9, the national pork market price was 23.89 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.28 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average market price of binary sows last week was 32.50 yuan/kg, remaining the same as the previous week [40]. - **Pig - to - Grain Ratio**: As of the week of October 8, 2025, the pig - to - grain ratio was 5.46, a decrease of 0.22 from the previous week [44]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - **Breeding Sow Inventory**: In late August 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.38 million heads, a decrease of 40,000 heads month - on - month, an increase of 0.05% year - on - year, reaching 103.5% of the normal inventory. In September, according to Mysteel data, the inventory of breeding sows in 123 large - scale farms decreased slightly by 0.28% month - on - month and increased by 1.09% year - on - year, while in 85 small and medium - sized farms, it decreased by 1.50% month - on - month and increased by 2.10% year - on - year [49]. - **Live Pig Inventory**: In Q2 2023, the live pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, an increase of 7.16 million heads from the end of the previous quarter and an increase of 9.14 million heads year - on - year. In September, according to Mysteel data, the live pig inventory in 123 large - scale farms increased by 1.44% month - on - month and 5.29% year - on - year, and in 85 small and medium - sized farms, it increased by 2.93% month - on - month and 6.29% year - on - year [53]. - **Slaughter Volume and Average Weight**: In September, according to Mysteel data, the slaughter volume of 123 large - scale farms decreased by 4.54% month - on - month and increased by 23.49% year - on - year, while in 85 small and medium - sized farms, it increased by 1.39% month - on - month and 33.52% year - on - year. The average slaughter weight of national outer - ternary live pigs this week was 123.43 kg, a decrease of 0.05 kg from last week, a month - on - month increase of 0.05%, and a year - on - year decrease of 0.29% [58]. 3.5 Industry Situation - **Breeding Profits**: As of October 17, the breeding profit of purchased piglets reported a loss of 375.29 yuan/head, with the loss expanding by 75.25 yuan/head; the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised live pigs was a loss of 244.7 yuan/head, a decrease of 92.55 yuan/head month - on - month. The egg - laying hen breeding profit was - 0.46 yuan/head, a decrease of 0.06 yuan/head week - on - week, and the 817 meat - hybrid chicken breeding profit was 1.40 yuan/head [63]. - **Pork Imports**: In August 2025, China's pork imports were 80,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.11%. From January to August, the cumulative pork imports were 710,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.43% [68]. - **Substitute Products**: The price of white - striped chickens dropped, and the spread between standard and fat pigs widened [69]. - **Feed Situation**: As of October 17, the spot price of soybean meal was 2993.43 yuan/ton, a decrease of 57.14 yuan/ton from the previous week; the corn price was 2269.22 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34.9 yuan/ton from the previous week. The closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index was 869.88, a decrease of 1.23% from last week, and the price of finishing pig compound feed was 3.34 yuan/kg, remaining the same as last week. As of August 2025, the monthly feed output was 29.272 million tons, an increase of 999,000 tons month - on - month. In September 2025, the sales of piglet feed decreased by 0.01% month - on - month and increased by 71.08% year - on - year [75][80][85]. - **CPI**: As of September 2025, China's CPI decreased by 0.3% year - on - year [89]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - **Slaughter and Consumption**: In the 42nd week, the slaughter enterprise's开工 rate was 32.38%, a decrease of 2.15 percentage points from last week and an increase of 5.07 percentage points year - on - year, with the weekly开工 rate fluctuating between 30.95% and 34.44%. The frozen product storage capacity rate was 17.84%, an increase of 0.09% from last week. As of August 2025, the slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises was 33.5 million heads, an increase of 5.81% from the previous month. In August 2025, the national catering revenue was 449.57 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.1% [92][97]. 3.7 Live Pig Stocks - The report presented the trend charts of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd. [98][101]

Core Insights - The national average price of live pigs in China is showing a steady upward trend, with the current price at 11.01 yuan per kilogram, an increase of 0.11 yuan from the previous day [1][3] - The supply index for meat products in Chongqing has risen by 2.36% compared to the previous day, indicating an increase in meat supply [1] - The wholesale trading volume of pork in Beijing has increased to 58.84 million kilograms, up by 2.17% from the previous day [1] Price Monitoring - The average price difference for the external three yuan pig price across 21 major regions is approximately 0.50 yuan per kilogram, which is a decrease of 0.03 yuan from the previous day and is below the average transportation cost of 0.55 yuan per kilogram [3] - After several days of decline, there are initial signs of price stabilization, supported by increased reluctance among farmers to sell and a rise in breeding activity, which is expected to support short-term prices [3]