生猪价格走势

Search documents
部分地区猪价跌入“6元时代” 专家:预计明年年中生猪出栏量将现拐点
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-08-21 16:05
(文章来源:每日经济新闻) 每经讯近日,农信数智生猪行业分析师夏晨丰在接受《每日经济新闻》记者采访时表示,截至8月21 日,行情宝数据显示,全国外三元生猪均价已跌至13.82元/公斤,环比下跌4.2%,同比下跌33%。北方 多地跌破13元/公斤,平均每斤生猪价格进入"6元时代"。这种价格低位主要是由需求疲软及市场情绪共 同导致的。 对于后市走势,夏晨丰认为短期来看猪价仍将低位震荡,月末出栏压力释放叠加天气转凉或带动消费边 际改善,但供需偏弱格局仍难逆转,预计反弹空间有限。中长期来看,行业进入效率竞争阶段,若产能 调减计划顺利实施,预计到2026年年中生猪出栏量将出现拐点,由增转降。猪价逐步转向"小波动、稳 盈利"新周期。 ...
山东沂源:散养生猪和仔猪价格与上周基本持平
Zhong Guo Fa Zhan Wang· 2025-08-14 06:49
Core Viewpoint - The pig prices in Yiyuan County, Shandong Province, have remained stable with slight declines, indicating a challenging market environment for pig farmers [1] Price Trends - The current price of live pigs is 14.1 yuan per kilogram, and the price of piglets (around 15 kg) is 28.00 yuan per kilogram, showing little change compared to the previous week [1] - Year-to-date, live pig prices have gradually decreased from 16.3 yuan per kilogram, while piglet prices have slowly increased from 27.00 yuan per kilogram to a peak of around 40.00 yuan per kilogram [1] - Since April, live pig prices have hovered around 15.00 yuan per kilogram, even dropping to 14.00 yuan per kilogram, which has negatively impacted piglet prices, leading to a downward trend since late May [1] Market Sentiment - The sales market for piglets is described as bleak, with most farmers adopting a wait-and-see approach and not increasing their stock levels, resulting in low demand for piglets [1] - The Yiyuan County Development and Reform Bureau anticipates that pig and piglet prices will likely remain low in the near future due to market supply and demand dynamics [1]
建信期货生猪日报-20250806
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-06 02:01
Report Overview - Report Title: Pig Daily Report - Date: August 06, 2025 - Industry: Pig Industry 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - In August, the supply of the pig industry is expected to increase as farmers' enthusiasm for selling pigs is high at the beginning of the month, and the utilization rate of secondary fattening pens remains high. Meanwhile, demand is in the off - season, so the supply - demand relationship will remain relatively loose, and pig prices may continue to face pressure. In the short - term, the nearby futures contract 2509 is following the decline of the spot price. In the medium - to - long - term for the far - month contracts, the pig supply will increase slightly, and contracts 2511 and 2601 are in the peak demand season, so their prices may show a volatile upward trend. Policies such as the anti - involution initiative and the high - quality development of the pig industry are beneficial to the long - term performance of pig prices [9]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: On August 5, the main pig futures contract 2509 opened flat, then rose, fell back, and fluctuated lower, closing with a negative line. The highest price was 13,980 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,825 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 13,885 yuan/ton, up 0.04% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 863 lots to 173,912 lots. The average price of external ternary pigs nationwide was 13.93 yuan/kg, up 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous day [8]. - **Analysis**: On the demand side, the utilization rate of pens is high, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening is average, and terminal demand is weak due to hot weather. The slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises on August 5 was 136,000 heads, 1,000 heads less than the previous day and 1,200 heads less than a week ago. On the supply side, the number of pigs for sale in August may increase month - on - month, and the pressure on sales remains. Overall, the supply - demand relationship is loose, and pig prices may be under pressure. In the futures market, the short - term nearby contract 2509 follows the spot price decline, while the medium - to - long - term far - month contracts may show a volatile upward trend [9]. 3.2 Industry News - As of July 31, the average profit per self - breeding and self - raising pig was 129 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 33 yuan/head; the average profit per pig purchased as a piglet was - 82 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 19 yuan/head [10][12]. 3.3 Data Overview - As of the week of July 31, the average market sales price of 15 - kg piglets was 527 yuan/head, 15 yuan/head lower than the previous week. - The average daily slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises in the week of July 31 was 136,803 heads, a week - on - week increase of 1.99%. - As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, the national pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 2.2% and a month - on - month increase of 7.16 million heads (1.72%). - As of the week of July 31, the average weight of slaughtered pigs nationwide was 127.98 kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.5 kg (0.39%) [18].
中泰期货生猪市场周度报告:生猪市场持续下跌,关注生猪板块周度报告-20250720
Zhong Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-20 13:42
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the spot market price of pigs continued to decline, with the national average price of standard pigs dropping by nearly 1 yuan/kg in the past two weeks. The market sentiment has weakened overall. Although there was a slight price increase over the weekend due to some reluctance to sell among pig farmers, the demand was insufficient [5]. - The price of piglets remained stable this week. Since the end of June, the price of piglets has been rising because current piglet purchases can still ensure pigs are ready for sale before the Spring Festival, which has increased the enthusiasm for piglet purchases [5]. - The sample slaughter volume decreased this week, and the downstream demand was weak. The losses of slaughterhouses widened, and the negative feedback from the demand side on live pig prices increased. The consumption in July - August is expected to remain sluggish, and the key factor affecting prices is still supply [6]. - The feed cost increased slightly this week, while the profit of pig farmers decreased significantly. The profit of the pig - purchasing and fattening model has turned negative, and the losses of slaughterhouses continue [6]. - Overall, the supply in July is not expected to increase significantly. The supply in the second half of July may decrease compared to the middle of the month, which is conducive to price stabilization. However, the demand is in a seasonal off - peak, and the negative feedback on price increases persists. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Overview and Market View 3.1.1 Price - The national average price of standard pigs this week was 14.19 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.51 yuan/kg from last week, and the price in Sichuan (the optimal delivery area) was 13.63 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.75 yuan/kg. The average price in Henan was 14.3 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.4 yuan/kg. The price of pork carcasses was 18.69 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.46 yuan/kg [5]. - The price of piglets was 444.76 yuan/head, a decrease of 0.48 yuan/head, remaining relatively stable. The price of sows was 1638.1 yuan/head, a decrease of 2.38 yuan/head [5]. 3.1.2 Production Capacity - According to national statistics, the inventory of breeding sows in June was 4.043 million heads, an increase of 10,000 heads from the previous month and a decrease of 370,000 heads from the peak in November last year. The inventory of breeding sows in the Steel Union sample increased by 15,100 heads to 5.2725 million heads [5]. - The average number of healthy piglets per litter was 11.41, unchanged from the previous month, and the fattening survival rate was 93.21%, also unchanged [5]. 3.1.3 Supply - The planned slaughter volume of commercial pigs this month was 13.005 million heads, an increase of 164,300 heads from last month. The average slaughter weight was 123.49 kg, a slight decrease of 0.01 kg [5]. - The price difference between standard and fat pigs was - 0.27 yuan/kg, a significant change from - 0.12 yuan/kg last week, indicating that the price of fat pigs was relatively strong [5]. 3.1.4 Demand - The daily slaughter volume was 107,803 heads, a decrease of 1,151 heads from last week. The slaughter rate of key slaughtering enterprises was 26.05%, a decrease of 0.28 percentage points. The fresh - meat sales rate was 87.87%, an increase of 0.08 percentage points [6]. - The wholesale volume of pork in Xinfadi Market increased by 3.51%, and the arrival volume of pork carcasses in Nanhuanqiao Market and Shanghai Xijiao Market increased by 26.11% and 7.73% respectively [6]. 3.1.5 Cost and Profit - The feed cost was 2.72 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.01 yuan/kg. The profit of self - breeding and self - fattening was 114.86 yuan/head, a decrease of 45.44 yuan/head. The profit of the pig - purchasing and fattening model was - 71.84 yuan/head, a significant decrease from 0.17 yuan/head last week [6]. - The profit of slaughtering was - 23 yuan/head, a slight improvement from - 23.9 yuan/head last week [6]. 3.1.6 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract (LH2509) was 14,135 yuan/ton, a decrease of 210 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was 55 yuan/ton, a significant decrease of 800 yuan/ton from last week [6]. - The price difference between contracts (7 - 9) was - 455 yuan/ton, a decrease of 810 yuan/ton, and the price difference between contracts (9 - 11) was 500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton [6]. 3.2 Market Price Trend - The report presents the historical price trends of standard pigs, pork carcasses, piglets, and sows from 2022 - 2025, helping to understand the long - term price changes in the pig market [10]. 3.3 Pig Market Balance Sheet - From 2024 - 2025, the supply and demand of the pig market fluctuated. The supply - demand gap was relatively stable from March - May and widened significantly from June - August [12][15]. 3.4 Production Capacity and Supply Data 3.4.1 Basic Production Capacity - Sow Inventory - The report shows the inventory trends of official breeding sows and different samples of breeding sows (scale enterprises, scale + small and medium - sized enterprises, small and medium - sized farmers) from February - December [17][19][21]. 3.4.2 Basic Production Capacity - Litter Efficiency - It includes the number of piglets born in sample enterprises, the average number of healthy piglets per litter, the survival rate of piglets, and the fattening survival rate from March - December [26][27][28]. 3.4.3 Pig Inventory - Slaughter Plan and Slaughter Characteristics - The report presents the trends of the average slaughter weight, the price difference between standard and fat pigs, the north - south price difference, the monthly planned slaughter volume of scale enterprises, and the monthly slaughter volume of major pig - raising enterprises [36][37][38]. 3.5 Slaughter Volume and Market Demand 3.5.1 Slaughter Situation - It shows the trends of the fresh - meat sales rate, daily slaughter volume, storage capacity rate, and daily operating rate of slaughtering enterprises from 2021 - 2025 [41][42]. 3.5.2 Market Demand - The report presents the trends of the wholesale volume of pork carcasses in Xinfadi Market, the arrival volume of pork carcasses in Nanhuanqiao Market and Shanghai Xijiao Market, and the price difference between live pigs and pork carcasses from 2022 - 2025 [43][45][49]. 3.5.3 Competitor Price Situation - It shows the price trends of beef, mutton, chicken, and fish from 2021 - 2025 [52][53]. 3.6 Pig - Raising Cost and Industry Profit - The report presents the trends of the price of pig - raising feed, the profit of the pig - purchasing and fattening model, the profit of self - breeding and self - fattening, the pig - grain ratio, and the expected and current costs of different pig - raising models from 2021 - 2025 [56][57][58]. 3.7 Futures Market Situation 3.7.1 Futures Market Trend - Each Futures Contract Trend - It shows the price trends of different futures contracts (01, 03, 05, 07, 09, 11) from 2022 - 2026 [72][73][74]. 3.7.2 Futures Market Trend - Each Contract Basis Trend - It presents the basis trends of different futures contracts (01, 03, 05, 07, 09, 11) from 2023 - 2026 [83][84][85]. 3.7.3 Futures Market Trend - Each Contract Price Difference Trend - It shows the price difference trends between different futures contracts (01 - 03, 03 - 05, 05 - 07, 07 - 09, 09 - 11, 11 - 01) from 2022 - 2025 [93][94][95].
生猪:等待月底现实印证
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-18 02:01
Report Summary Report Title - The report is titled "Pigs: Waiting for End-of-Month Reality Confirmation" and was released on July 18, 2025 [1] Core Viewpoints - Currently in the off - season of consumption, downstream digestion capacity is limited. Although large - scale farms haven't increased supply, some small - scale farmers' willingness to sell has risen, causing a rapid decline in spot prices. This confirms that the previous price increase was mainly due to inventory - building sentiment. The market expects a price increase from late July to early August, which may lead to more concentrated sales. It's necessary to wait for end - of - month spot price confirmation and pay attention to reserve policy trends. In August, the purchase of piglets will enter the off - season, and the 03 contract will enter the piglet pricing period, where production capacity and cost logic may have an impact. Stop - loss and take - profit should be noted. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [5] Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report Data Summary Spot and Futures Prices - Spot prices: Henan is 14,480 yuan/ton (down 150 yuan/ton), Sichuan is 13,750 yuan/ton (down 150 yuan/ton), and Guangdong is 15,790 yuan/ton (down 300 yuan/ton) - Futures prices: The price of the pig 2509 contract is 14,060 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan/ton), the pig 2511 contract is 13,535 yuan/ton (up 45 yuan/ton), and the pig 2601 contract is 13,750 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan/ton) [3] Trading Volume and Open Interest - Trading volume: The trading volume of the pig 2509 contract is 28,058 lots (down 22,326 lots), the pig 2511 contract is 5,818 lots (down 4,996 lots), and the pig 2601 contract is 3,535 lots (down 1,180 lots) - Open interest: The open interest of the pig 2509 contract is 64,811 lots (down 4,190 lots), the pig 2511 contract is 44,174 lots (down 216 lots), and the pig 2601 contract is 23,240 lots (up 252 lots) [3] Price Spreads - Basis: The basis of the pig 2509 contract is 420 yuan/ton (down 200 yuan/ton), the pig 2511 contract is 945 yuan/ton (down 195 yuan/ton), and the pig 2601 contract is 730 yuan/ton (down 200 yuan/ton) - Inter - contract spreads: The 9 - 11 spread of pigs is 525 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan/ton), and the 11 - 1 spread is - 215 yuan/ton (down 5 yuan/ton) [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, which is in the neutral range within the [-2, 2] interval [4]
建信期货生猪日报-20250717
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-17 01:52
Group 1: Report Information - Report Type: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: July 17, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Futures Market - On July 16, the main 2509 contract of live pigs opened slightly lower and then fell sharply, closing with a negative line. The highest price was 14,250 yuan/ton, the lowest was 14,000 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14,010 yuan/ton, down 1.89% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 3,073 lots to 165,134 lots [7]. Spot Market - On July 16, the national average price of external ternary pigs was 14.43 yuan/kg, down 0.09 yuan/kg from the previous day [7]. Market Analysis - Demand side: The price difference between fat and standard pigs slightly widened, and the utilization rate of pig pens increased, indicating that the enthusiasm for secondary fattening replenishment had increased. Due to the hot weather, terminal demand was weak, slaughterhouse orders were average, and the slaughter rate and volume of slaughterhouses remained low. On July 16, the slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses was 132,600 heads, a decrease of 11,000 heads from the previous day and an increase of 5,000 heads from a week ago [8]. - Supply side: According to Yongyi data, the planned slaughter volume of sample enterprises in July was 23.88 million heads, a month-on-month decrease of 1.19% compared with June. The slaughter volume might be slightly adjusted down. In the early ten days, enterprises had staged pressure on slaughter and reduced volume, and the slaughter weight increased slightly. Currently, the slaughter progress had recovered, and there were still secondary fattening pigs to be slaughtered in the future [8]. - Overall: Currently, the slaughter volume of large-scale farms has recovered, and prices have continued to decline. In the middle and late July, large-scale breeding enterprises may intensify their supply to meet their monthly slaughter targets. Meanwhile, demand is in the off-season, and pig prices may face pressure. In the futures market, all current futures contracts are slightly at a discount to the spot market. After the continuous recovery of large-scale farm slaughter, prices will decline along with the spot market. In the long term, the supply of live pigs will continue to increase, but the domestic anti-involution initiative and strengthened regional environmental protection policies are favorable for long-term pig price performance. Attention should be paid to the impact of future policies on production capacity [8]. Group 3: Industry News - As of the week ending July 11, the average profit per self-breeding and self-raising pig was 165 yuan/head, a week-on-week decrease of 6 yuan/head; the average profit per purchased piglet was -44 yuan/head, a week-on-week decrease of 58 yuan/head [9][11]. Group 4: Data Overview - In the week of July 10, the average market sales price of 15kg piglets was 539 yuan/head, an increase of 10 yuan/head from the previous week [19]. - In late June, the utilization rate of fattening pens was 53.9%, a ten-day-on-ten-day increase of 9 percentage points [19]. - In the week of July 10, the price difference between 150kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.10 yuan/jin, the same as the previous week [19]. - As of the week ending July 11, the average slaughter weight of national live pigs was 129.03 kg, an increase of 0.39 kg from the previous week, a month-on-month increase of 0.30% [19].
建信期货生猪日报-20250716
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-16 01:50
Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Pig Daily Report [1] - Report Date: July 16, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Futures: On July 15, the main 2509 contract of live pigs opened lower, then rose and fell back, closing with a negative line. The highest price was 14,360 yuan/ton, the lowest was 14,230 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14,250 yuan/ton, up 0.04% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 230 lots to 162,061 lots [7]. - Spot: On July 15, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 14.54 yuan/kg, down 0.07 yuan/kg from the previous day [7]. Market Analysis - Demand: The price difference between fat and standard pigs widened slightly, and the utilization rate of pigsties increased, indicating higher enthusiasm for secondary fattening. Due to hot weather, terminal demand was weak, slaughterhouse orders were average, and the slaughter rate and volume remained low. On July 15, the slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses was 133,600 heads, an increase of 11,000 heads from the previous day and 29,000 heads from a week ago [8]. - Supply: According to Yongyi data, the planned pig slaughter volume of sample enterprises in July was 23.88 million heads, a month-on-month decrease of 1.19% from June. There was phased pressure on栏 and reduced slaughter in the first ten days, and the slaughter weight increased slightly. Currently, the slaughter progress has recovered, and there are still secondary-fattened pigs to be slaughtered in the future [8]. Market Outlook - Short - term: The short - term reduction in slaughter boosted the rebound of futures and spot prices. Currently, the group's slaughter volume has recovered, and prices have slightly corrected [8]. - Medium - to - long - term: Pig supply will continue to increase. From mid - to - late July, group - owned farms may increase supply to meet monthly targets, and demand is in the off - season, so pig prices may face pressure. Futures contracts are slightly at a discount to the spot. The spot market's supply reduction to maintain prices has driven the rebound of futures and spot prices. In addition, the domestic anti - involution initiative is beneficial to the medium - to - long - term performance of pig prices, and the increasing environmental protection efforts in some areas support market sentiment [8]. Group 3: Data Overview - Profit: As of the week of July 11, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was 165 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 6 yuan/head; the average profit per pig purchased as a piglet was - 44 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 58 yuan/head [17]. - Piglet Price: In the week of July 10, the average market sales price of 15kg piglets was 539 yuan/head, an increase of 10 yuan/head from the previous week [17]. - Utilization Rate: In late June, the utilization rate of fattening pigsties was 53.9%, a ten - day increase of 9 percentage points [17]. - Price Difference: In the week of July 10, the price difference between 150 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.10 yuan/jin, the same as the previous week [17]. - Slaughter Weight: As of the week of July 11, the average slaughter weight of pigs nationwide was 129.03 kg, an increase of 0.39 kg from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 0.30% [17].
生猪供需改善价格走势平稳
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-15 22:26
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the pig farming industry has maintained profitability in the first half of the year due to declining breeding costs and some farmers successfully locking in profits through stable operating models [1][2] - In the first half of the year, the average price of live pigs was 15.50 yuan per kilogram, a year-on-year decrease of 0.8%, primarily due to a significant increase in the number of pigs being sold compared to the previous year [1][2] - The slaughter volume of large-scale pig slaughtering enterprises from January to May was 15,349.67 million heads, with May's slaughter volume at 3,215.67 million heads, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 4.5% and a year-on-year increase of 20.6% [1] Group 2 - The recent rebound in pig prices is driven by multiple favorable factors, including the clearance of large pigs and the conversion of some fresh pork to frozen products, which alleviated supply pressure [2] - The average prices of feed and raw materials for pig farming, such as corn and soybean meal, decreased by 9.2%, 8.8%, and 6.4% year-on-year, respectively, contributing to sustained low breeding costs [2] - The overall pig farming industry has been in a downward price cycle for nearly two years, but some local governments have actively supported farmers, leading to stable profits for certain farmers [2] Group 3 - The outlook for pig prices suggests a potential rebound in the third quarter, although the extent of this rebound may be limited due to continued ample production capacity [3] - The number of newborn piglets has been increasing since the second half of last year, indicating that pig supply will remain abundant into the second half of 2025 [3] - Seasonal recovery in pork consumption is expected as the market stabilizes, with government policies encouraging farmers to control the weight of pigs at the time of sale [3]
生猪日报:供应压力仍存,价格阶段性回落-20250714
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-07-14 13:43
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of live pigs still exists, and the spot price is likely to face difficulties in continuing to strengthen. The futures market is also affected by the weakening of the spot price and is expected to show a certain degree of decline. The price will be in a state where both upward and downward movements are restricted [2][4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Spot Information - Today's live pig spot prices generally declined. After the previous continuous price increase, the market's enthusiasm for selling pigs has recovered, but the overall price decline is limited. The short - term supply situation has improved, and the price increase momentum is restricted. The secondary fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state, and the subsequent supply pressure is still expected to exist [2]. - The prices of piglets and sows remained unchanged at 439 and 1621 respectively. The self - breeding and self - raising profit was 133.87, an increase of 14.15 compared to the previous day, and the profit from purchasing piglets was 31.60, an increase of 57.86 compared to the previous day [2]. - The daily slaughter volume decreased by 2020 to 132,507 heads. The price difference between different sizes of pigs also changed, with the price difference between large pigs and standard pigs decreasing by 0.03 to 0.07 [2]. Futures Information - Today's live pig futures showed a fluctuating downward trend. After the previous rapid increase, the market's enthusiasm for further bullish sentiment has decreased, and the futures market has entered a high - level volatile state. The inter - month spread of the futures is expected to remain volatile due to the lack of obvious driving factors in the short term [2][4]. - Among the futures contracts, LH01 was 13,725, an increase of 20; LH03 was 12,990, an increase of 10; LH05 was 13,160, a decrease of 15; LH07 was 14,000, an increase of 50; LH09 was 14,285, a decrease of 60; LH11 was 13,605, a decrease of 40 [2]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading is expected to be mainly in a high - level volatile state - For arbitrage, conduct a long - short spread trade on the LH9 - 1 contract - For options, adopt a wait - and - see strategy [5]
生猪日报:出栏整体稳定,价格略有回落-20250710
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-07-10 13:18
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall spot price of live pigs showed a fluctuating trend. After the previous continuous price increase, the market's enthusiasm for selling increased, leading to a price decline. However, the overall decline space was limited as the market's resistance to low prices increased. The market supply improved in the short term, and the upward momentum of prices was restricted. The follow - up supply pressure was still expected to exist due to the relatively high inventory, making it difficult for the spot price to continue rising [2]. - The live pig futures showed a fluctuating downward trend. After the previous rapid increase, the market's bullish sentiment declined, and the futures entered a high - level fluctuation state. It was expected to be affected by the weakening spot price. The short - term monthly spread was expected to be mainly volatile due to the lack of obvious driving factors [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Spot Information - **Price Comparison**: The average price of live pigs on July 10, 2025, was 14.14 yuan/kg, down 0.13 yuan/kg from the previous day. Most regions saw price declines, with only Hunan and Jiangxi having slight increases. The prices of sows remained unchanged at 1621 yuan, while the prices of piglets rose to 439 yuan, an increase of 8 yuan from the previous week [2]. - **Profit Situation**: The spot breeding profit for self - breeding and self - raising was 119.72 yuan/head, an increase of 69.48 yuan compared to the previous day. The profit for purchasing piglets was - 26.26 yuan/head, an increase of 105.45 yuan [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: The slaughter volume was 132,166 heads, an increase of 89 heads from the previous day. The price difference between large and medium - sized pigs and standard pigs changed, with the price difference between large pigs and standard pigs increasing by 0.02 yuan [2]. Futures Information - **Futures Price**: The futures prices of LH01, LH03, LH05, LH09, and LH11 increased, while LH07 decreased. For example, LH01 rose from 13,675 yuan to 13,775 yuan, and LH07 fell from 13,960 yuan to 13,950 yuan [2]. - **Contract Spread**: The spread of LH7 - 9 decreased by 120 yuan, while LH9 - 1, LH9 - 11 increased by 10 yuan and 15 yuan respectively, and LH11 - 1 decreased by 5 yuan [2]. Trading Strategy - **Unilateral Trading**: It was mainly in a high - level volatile operation [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Conducted a positive spread arbitrage for LH91 [6]. - **Options**: Adopted a wait - and - see strategy [6].