供应方面，部分集团企业因节前出栏计划完成不佳，导致节后供应放量，今日生猪出栏量上涨；需求方 面，双节集中备货后，节后终端走货明显放缓，同时，南方高温和北方降雨天气也抑制了消费需求的释 放，预计明日价格维持弱势稳定。 外三元生猪价差监测显示，今日全国21组大区间平均价差约0.54元／公斤，较昨日下跌0.02元／公斤， 低于平均调运成本0.51元／公斤。 国家级生猪大数据中心监测显示，2025年10月10日，31个省（自治区、直辖市）外三元生猪价格0涨28 跌3平，呈下跌趋势。价格监测情况显示，10月10日，全国生猪均价为11.35元／公斤，较昨日下跌0.31 元／公斤。重庆市肉品供给指数显示，10日肉品供给比昨日上涨3.93%。北京市白条猪批发交易量为 50.83万公斤，较昨日上涨0.61%。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The national hog price is weakly stable. After continuous previous declines, market resistance has increased, local second - fattening inquiries have risen, and the decline in spot prices has slowed. In the short term, supply still exceeds demand. However, after continuous price drops, the price - holding sentiment of the breeding side is emerging. It is advisable to try short - term long positions. In the short term, attention should be paid to the changes in the slaughter rhythm of group farms and the demand recovery situation [2][21]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Supply Situation Analysis The report includes charts such as the monthly trend chart of the inventory of breeding sows in sample enterprises (in ten thousand heads), the weekly trend chart of the average slaughter weight of national sample commercial hogs (in kilograms), and the inventory structure of commercial hogs by weight (in %) [5][6][9]. 2. Demand Situation Analysis The report analyzes demand through charts of the开工率 of key slaughtering enterprises (in %) and the frozen product storage capacity ratio of key slaughtering enterprises (in %) [12][15]. 3. Cost - Profit Analysis The report presents the self - breeding and self - raising breeding profit (in yuan per head) and the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding (in yuan per head) through relevant charts [17][19]. 4. Market Outlook The national hog price is weakly stable. After continuous previous declines, market resistance has increased, local second - fattening inquiries have risen, and the decline in spot prices has slowed. In the short term, supply still exceeds demand. However, after continuous price drops, the price - holding sentiment of the breeding side is emerging. It is advisable to try short - term long positions. In the short term, attention should be paid to the changes in the slaughter rhythm of group farms and the demand recovery situation [2][21].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 生猪期货早报 2025-09-17 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 ✸生猪观点和策略 生猪： 1. 基本面：供应方面，9月份国内逐渐进入中秋国庆双节前供需旺季，国内出栏积极性增多生猪价格 短期维持震荡，预计本周供给猪、肉双增。需求方面，国内宏观环境预期有所回升，开学季和长假 将至居民整体消费意愿有所回升，提振短期鲜猪肉消费，提振市场信心。综合来看，预计本周市场 或供需双增、猪价短期探底回升维持震荡格局。关注月中集团场出栏节奏变化、二次育肥市场动态 变化情况。中性。 2. 基差：现货全国均价12960元/吨，2511合约基差200元/吨，现货贴水期货。偏空。 3. 库存：截至6月 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the overall price of live pigs across the country showed a downward trend. Due to high inventory and large supply, the price of live pigs is expected to continue to decline. The downward pressure on the futures market still exists, but the decline has slowed down [5]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to short on rallies for near - month contracts, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and buy far - month call options [6]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Comprehensive Analysis & Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - The overall price of live pigs across the country declined this week. The supply remains high as the scale enterprises increased their slaughter volume, and there are still many large - weight pigs in the market. The demand is average as the slaughter volume decreased and the frozen product inventory increased [5]. - In the futures market, the decline has slowed down, but there is still downward pressure due to the weak spot market [5]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Short on rallies for near - month contracts. - Arbitrage: Stay on the sidelines. - Options: Buy far - month call options [6]. 2. Data Chart & Logical Analysis 2.1 Live Pig Price - This week, the price of live pigs across the country showed a downward trend. In different regions, the price decline ranges from 0.15 to 0.9 yuan/kg. The price center has moved down due to the increased enthusiasm of scale enterprises for slaughter [11]. 2.2 Slaughter and Consumption Changes - **Slaughter**: The overall slaughter volume of live pigs increased this week. The scale enterprises increased their slaughter, while the ordinary farmers slowed down. The slaughter weight increased, and the supply pressure is expected to remain high [13]. - **Consumption**: The demand in the live pig market declined this week. Although the slaughter volume and frozen product inventory increased, the actual demand was average as the price decreased [13]. 2.3 Breeding Profit - As of the week ending September 12, the self - breeding and self - raising profit was 16.84 yuan/head, a decrease of 15.39 yuan/head from last week. The profit of purchasing piglets was - 161.93 yuan/head, a decrease of 13.53 yuan/head from last week. The breeding profit declined due to the falling price of live pigs [21]. 2.4 Sow and Piglet Prices - **Piglets**: The price of 7 - kg piglets was 294 yuan/head, a decrease of 29 yuan/head from last week. The price of 15 - kg piglets was 399 yuan/kg, a decrease of 27 yuan/head from last week. The enthusiasm for replenishing piglets was low [26]. - **Sows**: The price of sows was 1592 yuan/head, a decrease of 2 yuan/head from last week. The ratio of culled sows to commercial pigs rebounded, and the culling was normal [26]. - **Fertile Sow Inventory**: According to Yongyi, the fertile sow inventory increased slightly in August, with the comprehensive sample increasing by 0.07% and the scale enterprises by 0.02%. According to Ganglian, the inventory decreased by 0.8% in August, with the scale enterprises decreasing by 0.83% and the small and medium - sized farmers by 0.09% [28].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The supply side shows that farms have high enthusiasm for slaughtering, strict transportation inspections, and low enthusiasm for second - fattening. Slaughterhouses can easily acquire supplies, resulting in sufficient pork production capacity [2][20] - The demand side indicates that there is no obvious positive news at the terminal. Slaughterhouses have no intention of making frozen products, maintain a high fresh - sales rate, with little change in slaughter volume, and pork consumption continues to be weak [2][20] - Overall, the slaughter pressure on the breeding side remains high, terminal demand has not improved, there is little second - fattening, supply exceeds demand, pig prices have reached a new low in recent years, and prices are more likely to fall than rise [2][20] Summary by Directory 1. Supply Situation Analysis - Farms have high enthusiasm for slaughtering, strict transportation inspections, and low enthusiasm for second - fattening, leading to smooth acquisition of supplies by slaughterhouses and sufficient pork production capacity [2][20] 2. Demand Situation Analysis - There is no obvious positive news at the terminal. Slaughterhouses have no intention of making frozen products, maintain a high fresh - sales rate, and there is little change in slaughter volume, with pork consumption remaining weak [2][20] 3. Cost - Profit Analysis - Not elaborated in the provided text 4. Market Outlook - The supply side has high slaughter enthusiasm from farms, strict transportation inspections, and low second - fattening enthusiasm, resulting in sufficient supplies. The demand side has no obvious positive news, high fresh - sales rate, and little change in slaughter volume. Supply exceeds demand, pig prices are at a new low in recent years, and prices are more likely to fall than rise [2][20]

Summary of the Conference Call on the Swine Industry in August 2025 Industry Overview - The report focuses on the swine industry in China, specifically analyzing the data and trends for August 2025 regarding pig prices, production capacity, and profitability [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Price Trends - The average price of live pigs in August 2025 dropped to 13.57 CNY/kg, marking the lowest point of the year, down from a peak of 16.36 CNY/kg at the beginning of the year, reflecting significant market pressure [1][2]. - The monthly average price for August was reported at 13.77 CNY/kg, a decrease of 5.36% from July and a 32.27% decline year-on-year [2]. Production Capacity - Sample data from 196 enterprises indicated a 3.65% month-on-month increase in pig slaughtering volume and a 23.32% year-on-year increase [3][4]. - The breeding sow inventory showed a slight month-on-month decline of 1.11%, but a year-on-year increase of 5.38%, indicating ongoing capacity adjustments in the industry [5]. Profitability - The profitability for self-breeding and self-raising operations fell to an average of 63.7 CNY per head, a staggering decrease of 62.51% month-on-month and 92.2% year-on-year [8]. - Losses were reported in piglet fattening, with an average loss of 28.35 CNY per head, reflecting a significant decline in profitability [8]. Market Expectations - The price of 7 kg piglets averaged 393.05 CNY per head in August but dropped to 340.92 CNY by the end of the month, with expectations for further declines in September and October due to seasonal factors [6][7]. - The anticipated price for piglets could fall to around 200 CNY per head in the coming months, which may lead to a further reduction in the breeding sow inventory [7]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Daily slaughter rates increased to an average of 167,200 pigs in August, a year-on-year increase of 25.25% [13]. - The supply of pigs is expected to continue increasing in September, which may exert downward pressure on prices [14]. Cost Factors - Feed costs, particularly for soymeal and corn, have remained relatively low, providing some support for breeding profitability despite the drop in pig prices [9]. - The average cost of raising pigs for large enterprises is around 12 to 13 CNY/kg, while smaller enterprises face costs close to 13 CNY/kg, indicating a challenging profitability landscape [25]. Future Projections - The fourth quarter is expected to see continued increases in pig supply, with potential price rebounds due to seasonal demand around the holidays [16][23]. - The highest weekly price forecast for the end of the year is between 14.5 to 15 CNY/kg, with the lowest potentially dropping below 13.5 CNY/kg [23]. Industry Challenges - The industry is facing challenges related to disease outbreaks, particularly in southern regions, which could impact supply and pricing dynamics in the coming months [20]. - The government's target to reduce breeding sow numbers by 1 million heads is being implemented, but the pace of reduction varies among enterprises [18][21]. Additional Important Insights - The weight of pigs at transaction averaged 123.87 kg in August, showing a slight decline, which has implications for market pricing [10]. - The price difference between fat and standard pigs increased, indicating market adjustments in response to supply and demand shifts [11]. - The reduction in secondary fattening and restocking activities reflects cautious market sentiment regarding future price expectations [12]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the swine industry, highlighting the current challenges, market dynamics, and future expectations.

Group 1: Report Core Views - Northern regional pig prices have been rising continuously. The reduction in the quantity of pigs sold by enterprises has driven up pig prices, with the increase exceeding expectations. The enthusiasm of individual farmers and second - fattening operators to sell pigs has increased, mainly to digest large - weight pig sources, and the price has been stable with limited changes. Slaughterhouse slaughter volume has increased steadily but slowly due to the reduction in enterprise supply [2]. - Most southern markets have seen rising prices. The limited quantity of pigs sold by breeding enterprises has reduced the supply, supporting the market price increase. Attention should be paid to the changes in the enterprise - side slaughter rhythm in recent days [2]. - The off - season supply has ended, and there may be a pattern of both supply and demand increasing in September. However, the weight - loss effect of pig enterprises in the early stage is obvious, which may reduce the supply pressure in September. Moreover, the price difference between standard and fat pigs has always maintained a certain profit for raising large pigs, so there is always room for second - fattening to enter the market [3] Group 2: Data Presented in the Report - The report presents data on various aspects of the pig industry, including the average price of pig slaughter, the seasonal number of pig warehouse receipts, the impact of the number of breeding sows on pig prices 10 months later, the comparison between national and Henan pig prices, the change in pig inventory structure, the average weight of pig slaughter, the PSY production index of breeding sows, the cold - storage rate of frozen pork, the average price of culled sows, pig slaughter volume, the number of culled breeding sows, the seasonal profit of purchased pigs, the seasonal profit of self - raised pigs, the seasonal gross profit of pig slaughter, the开工率 of key pig slaughter enterprises, and the seasonal average price of piglets [4][5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The average price of external three yuan pigs in China has dropped to 13.82 yuan per kilogram as of August 21, reflecting a 4.2% month-on-month decline and a 33% year-on-year decrease, primarily due to weak demand and market sentiment [1]. Price Trends - The average pig price in many northern regions has fallen below 13 yuan per kilogram, entering a "6 yuan era" for average prices per jin [1]. - Short-term outlook indicates that pig prices will continue to fluctuate at low levels, with pressure from market supply and demand remaining weak [1]. Market Dynamics - The expected improvement in consumption due to cooler weather may provide some marginal support, but the overall supply-demand imbalance is unlikely to change significantly [1]. - The industry is entering a phase of efficiency competition, with potential adjustments in production capacity expected to lead to a turning point in pig output by mid-2026, shifting from growth to decline [1]. Future Outlook - The pig price is anticipated to transition into a new cycle characterized by "small fluctuations and stable profitability" [1].

Core Viewpoint - The pig prices in Yiyuan County, Shandong Province, have remained stable with slight declines, indicating a challenging market environment for pig farmers [1] Price Trends - The current price of live pigs is 14.1 yuan per kilogram, and the price of piglets (around 15 kg) is 28.00 yuan per kilogram, showing little change compared to the previous week [1] - Year-to-date, live pig prices have gradually decreased from 16.3 yuan per kilogram, while piglet prices have slowly increased from 27.00 yuan per kilogram to a peak of around 40.00 yuan per kilogram [1] - Since April, live pig prices have hovered around 15.00 yuan per kilogram, even dropping to 14.00 yuan per kilogram, which has negatively impacted piglet prices, leading to a downward trend since late May [1] Market Sentiment - The sales market for piglets is described as bleak, with most farmers adopting a wait-and-see approach and not increasing their stock levels, resulting in low demand for piglets [1] - The Yiyuan County Development and Reform Bureau anticipates that pig and piglet prices will likely remain low in the near future due to market supply and demand dynamics [1]

Report Overview - Report Title: Pig Daily Report - Date: August 06, 2025 - Industry: Pig Industry 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - In August, the supply of the pig industry is expected to increase as farmers' enthusiasm for selling pigs is high at the beginning of the month, and the utilization rate of secondary fattening pens remains high. Meanwhile, demand is in the off - season, so the supply - demand relationship will remain relatively loose, and pig prices may continue to face pressure. In the short - term, the nearby futures contract 2509 is following the decline of the spot price. In the medium - to - long - term for the far - month contracts, the pig supply will increase slightly, and contracts 2511 and 2601 are in the peak demand season, so their prices may show a volatile upward trend. Policies such as the anti - involution initiative and the high - quality development of the pig industry are beneficial to the long - term performance of pig prices [9]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: On August 5, the main pig futures contract 2509 opened flat, then rose, fell back, and fluctuated lower, closing with a negative line. The highest price was 13,980 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,825 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 13,885 yuan/ton, up 0.04% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 863 lots to 173,912 lots. The average price of external ternary pigs nationwide was 13.93 yuan/kg, up 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous day [8]. - **Analysis**: On the demand side, the utilization rate of pens is high, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening is average, and terminal demand is weak due to hot weather. The slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises on August 5 was 136,000 heads, 1,000 heads less than the previous day and 1,200 heads less than a week ago. On the supply side, the number of pigs for sale in August may increase month - on - month, and the pressure on sales remains. Overall, the supply - demand relationship is loose, and pig prices may be under pressure. In the futures market, the short - term nearby contract 2509 follows the spot price decline, while the medium - to - long - term far - month contracts may show a volatile upward trend [9]. 3.2 Industry News - As of July 31, the average profit per self - breeding and self - raising pig was 129 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 33 yuan/head; the average profit per pig purchased as a piglet was - 82 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 19 yuan/head [10][12]. 3.3 Data Overview - As of the week of July 31, the average market sales price of 15 - kg piglets was 527 yuan/head, 15 yuan/head lower than the previous week. - The average daily slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises in the week of July 31 was 136,803 heads, a week - on - week increase of 1.99%. - As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, the national pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 2.2% and a month - on - month increase of 7.16 million heads (1.72%). - As of the week of July 31, the average weight of slaughtered pigs nationwide was 127.98 kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.5 kg (0.39%) [18].