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五矿期货农产品早报-20260318
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2026-03-18 00:36
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Sugar: Due to the continuous discount of raw sugar prices to the Brazilian ethanol conversion price and the potential increase in crude oil prices caused by geopolitical risks, there is a possibility of reducing the proportion of sugarcane for sugar production in Brazil's new crushing season after April this year, leading to sugar production cuts. In China, as the crushing season nears its end, the pressure of increased production eases. With potential positive factors for raw sugar in the future, sugar prices may still have room to rebound. It is recommended to try to go long on dips [3]. - Cotton: The issuance of an additional 300,000 tons of import quotas is a short - term negative for Zhengzhou cotton prices. In the medium term, the downstream operating rate has returned to the level of the same period last year. The overall view is neutral, and the subsequent price trend depends on the downstream operating conditions. It is recommended to switch to a wait - and - see approach in the short term [5][7]. - Soybeans and Protein Meal: The March USDA report is neutral. Affected by the geopolitical crisis, short - term crude oil prices fluctuate sharply, driving significant fluctuations in protein meal prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [9]. - Oils: Affected by the outbreak of the geopolitical crisis, short - term crude oil prices have risen significantly, driving up oil prices. Before the end of the US - Iran incident, crude oil prices remain high, and there is an expectation that Indonesia will tighten palm oil exports. It is recommended to maintain a bullish view on oils in the medium term [13]. - Eggs: The egg production capacity is on a downward trend, but the absolute supply level remains high. The supply reduction is expected to be delayed. The spot price is affected by pulsed demand, showing a strong overall trend, but the future price increase space and sustainability are questionable, resulting in a relatively high valuation of the near - term contracts on the futures market. It is recommended to short on rebounds in the near term and pay attention to the support from rising cost in the long term [17]. - Pigs: Considering the still - high weight and theoretical slaughter volume, although the inventory of small farmers is low, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening is insufficient under the current fat - to - standard price difference, providing limited support for the market. The short - term spot price may remain weakly stable. It is recommended to short on rebounds in the near - term futures contracts and wait and see in the long - term contracts due to high premium [20]. 3. Summary by Commodity Sugar - **Production Data**: In February, China's cumulative sugar production was 9.26 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 455,000 tons; single - month sugar sales were 750,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 266,000 tons; industrial inventory was 5.81 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 840,000 tons. In the 2025/26 crushing season, as of February 28, India's cumulative sugar production was 24.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.62 million tons. The Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) predicted that India's net sugar production (excluding ethanol) in the 2025/26 crushing season would be 29.3 million tons, a 1.65 - million - ton reduction from the second prediction but a 3.17 - million - ton year - on - year increase. As of February 28, 2026, Thailand's sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season reached 8.49 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 130,000 tons. The International Sugar Organization (ISO) predicted at the end of February that the global sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season would be 181.29 million tons due to lower - than - expected sugar production in India and Thailand [2]. Cotton - **Supply - Demand Data**: The National Development and Reform Commission issued an additional 300,000 tons of processing trade import quotas with preferential tariff rates outside the tariff quota. The International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) predicted that the global cotton production in the 2026/27 season would decline by 4% to 24.8 million tons, while consumption was expected to remain stable at 25 million tons. From February 26 to March 5, the US current - year cotton export sales were 35,800 tons, and the cumulative export sales were 2.0865 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 163,900 tons; the export to China in the same period was 1,800 tons, and the cumulative export to China was 100,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 90,200 tons. As of the week of March 13, the spinning mill operating rate was 76%, a 2.8 - percentage - point increase from the previous week; the national commercial cotton inventory was 5.14 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 390,000 tons. The USDA predicted in March that the global cotton production in the 2025/26 season would be 26.34 million tons, a 240,000 - ton increase from the February prediction and a 540,000 - ton increase from the previous year; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 64.42%, a 1.15 - percentage - point increase from the February prediction and a 2.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous year [4]. Soybeans - **Production and Export Data**: AgRural estimated that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season would be 178 million tons, a 3 - million - ton reduction from the previous prediction. StoneX estimated that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season would be 177.8 million tons, a 3.8 - million - ton reduction from the previous prediction. From February 26 to March 5, the US exported 380,000 tons of soybeans, and the current - year cumulative export of soybeans was 36.49 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.7 million tons; the export to China in the same period was 80,000 tons, and the current - year cumulative export to China was 10.82 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.9 million tons. As of the week of March 13, the arrival of domestic sample soybeans in 2026 was 15.48 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.19 million tons; the sample soybean port inventory was 5.49 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.19 million tons. The USDA predicted in March that the global soybean production in the 2025/26 season would be 427.17 million tons, a 990,000 - ton decrease from the February prediction but a 28,000 - ton increase from the previous year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 29.54%, a 0.01 - percentage - point decrease from February and a 0.3 - percentage - point decrease from the previous year [8]. Oils - **Industry News**: The President of Indonesia stated that Indonesian coal, crude palm oil, and their derivative production enterprises are prohibited from exporting relevant products before meeting domestic demand. The Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers' Association (SPPOMA) reported that from March 1 to 10, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 1.55% month - on - month, the fresh fruit bunch yield increased by 4.29%, and the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.52%. The Deputy Minister of Energy of Indonesia said that the government is studying the possibility of restarting the B50 mandatory blending policy in the middle of this year. In January 2026, Indonesia's total palm oil exports were 2.3 million tons, a 490,000 - ton decrease from the previous month but an 860,000 - ton increase from the same period last year. According to MPOB data, Malaysia's palm oil production in February was 1.28 million tons, a 300,000 - ton decrease from the previous month but a 90,000 - ton increase from the same period last year; exports were 1.13 million tons, a 330,000 - ton decrease from the previous month but a 130,000 - ton increase from the same period last year; inventory was 2.7 million tons, a 120,000 - ton decrease from the previous month but a 1.19 - million - ton increase from the same period last year [11]. Eggs - **Market Situation**: The national egg price remained stable yesterday, with the average price in the main production areas slightly dropping 0.01 yuan to 3.15 yuan per catty. The supply was stable, the downstream sales speed varied, most traders were confident about the future market, the inventory at each level was stable, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was stable. It is expected that the national egg price will mostly remain stable today, with individual prices rising or falling [15][16]. Pigs - **Market Situation**: The domestic pig price was mainly stable yesterday, with some areas continuing to decline. The average price in Henan dropped 0.09 yuan to 10.14 yuan per kilogram, the average price in Sichuan remained at 10.07 yuan per kilogram, and the average price in Guangxi dropped 0.09 yuan to 9.99 yuan per kilogram. Currently, the demand is in the off - season, the downstream pig purchase volume is relatively stable, and farmers' willingness to sell is strong. It is expected that the weak pig price trend will continue in the near future [19].
供应压力较大,价格整体下行
Yin He Qi Huo· 2026-02-04 09:41
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current supply pressure of live pigs is relatively high, and the overall price is declining. Although the scale enterprises' slaughter volume has decreased, it is still relatively high. The slaughter volume of ordinary farmers remains normal, and the number of secondary fattening entries has decreased. The supply pressure may improve, but the overall supply is still relatively sufficient, and the later supply pressure may still be obvious. The overall direction of the live pig spot market is expected to be downward, and the pig price still has a certain downward pressure. The live pig futures price showed a slight increase today, with obvious support in the far - month futures market. In the near - term market, the slaughter pressure of live pigs may continue, but there may be certain support on the spot side, and the deep - decline space is limited. In the medium - term, the overall direction of the spot market will still be downward, and the futures market may show certain support [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Spot Price - Today, the live pig prices across the country showed a downward trend. The average price was 11.74 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.28 yuan/kg compared with yesterday. The prices in various regions all declined, with the largest decline of 0.51 yuan/kg in Zhejiang and Jiangxi, and the smallest decline of 0.09 yuan/kg in Sichuan [1] 3.2 Futures Price - The live pig futures prices showed a slight increase today. For example, LH01 increased by 100 to 13355, LH07 increased by 125 to 12295, LH09 increased by 155 to 13210, and LH11 increased by 170 to 13130 [1] 3.3 Sow/Piglet Price - The piglet price was 366 yuan, a decrease of 1 yuan compared with last week; the sow price was 1557 yuan, unchanged from last week [1] 3.4 Contract Spread - LH7 - 9 was - 915, a decrease of 30 compared with yesterday; LH9 - 1 was - 145, an increase of 55 compared with yesterday; LH9 - 11 was 8, an increase of 8 compared with yesterday; LH11 - 1 was - 225, an increase of 70 compared with yesterday [1] 3.5 Slaughter End - The slaughter volume was 190958 heads, a decrease of 816 compared with yesterday [1] 3.6 Size Pig Spread - The spread between standard pigs and medium - sized pigs was 0.69, an increase of 0.01 compared with yesterday; the spread between medium - large pigs and standard pigs was 0.25, a decrease of 0.04 compared with yesterday; the spread between large pigs and medium - large pigs was 0.83, an increase of 0.08 compared with yesterday; the spread between large pigs and standard pigs was 1.08, an increase of 0.04 compared with yesterday [1] 3.7 Trading Strategy - Unilateral: It is recommended to reduce and exit the long positions of the 05 contract. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Sell the wide - straddle strategy [4]
春节前旺季需求启动偏慢,本周生猪均价环比下跌
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-02-01 01:47
Group 1 - The average price of pork in China's wholesale markets increased by 0.6% to 18.61 yuan/kg as of January 30, compared to 18.49 yuan/kg on January 23, while the weekly average price rose by 0.8% to 18.65 yuan/kg from 18.5 yuan/kg [1] - Domestic pig prices showed a slight increase followed by a continuous decline, with the average price of live pigs (external three yuan) dropping by 3.2% to 12.52 yuan/kg from 12.93 yuan/kg on January 23, and the weekly average price decreased by 2.3% to 12.81 yuan/kg from 13.11 yuan/kg [1] Group 2 - The average trading weight of live pigs in China slightly decreased by 0.14% to 124.33 kg, with northern regions showing a trend of reduced weights while southern regions experienced slight increases [2] - The operating rate of major domestic pig slaughtering enterprises increased to an average of 41.28%, up by 0.40 percentage points from the previous week, driven by increased orders due to pre-festival stocking demands [2] - The expectation of increased weight reduction in the breeding sector is beginning to materialize, with current demand in a lull period before the festival, indicating potential pressure on pig prices due to concentrated supply release [2] Group 3 - The theoretical output of standard pigs in China is expected to remain high into the second quarter, with concerns over whether new policy guidance will be introduced due to slower-than-expected capacity reduction in the previous quarter [3] - Short-term demand for the pre-festival peak is starting slowly, with high live inventory levels leading to potential pressure on larger pigs post-festival [3] - Future market trends are anticipated to show a pattern of decline followed by a rebound and subsequent drop, influenced by high output from breeding groups and local demand fluctuations due to returning workers in southern regions [3]
高瞻远“猪”:一致性预期存在 2026年上半年仔猪价格或涨
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-30 02:57
Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the pig market prices are expected to decline year-on-year in 2025, leading to reduced profitability for farmers and a decrease in the willingness to restock piglets [1][3] - In 2025, the average price of piglets is projected to be 391.02 yuan per head, a year-on-year decrease of 15.70%, reflecting a seasonal trend of "rise-fall-slight rise" [1] - The average price of live pigs in 2025 is expected to be 13.74 yuan per kilogram, down 17.97% year-on-year, with the highest price recorded at 16.36 yuan per kilogram and the lowest at 10.72 yuan per kilogram [3] Group 2 - In 2025, nearly half of the time, the piglet fattening model is expected to operate at a loss, with an average profit of 20.32 yuan per head, a decrease of 376.93 yuan per head year-on-year [5] - The cost of piglet restocking is anticipated to fluctuate, impacting the profitability of piglet fattening, which is primarily influenced by the costs of restocking and live pig prices [5] - For the first half of 2026, piglet prices may rise due to seasonal factors, despite ongoing downward pressure on live pig prices [7][9] Group 3 - The supply pressure for live pigs in 2026 remains significant, with the number of breeding sows showing a trend of first increasing and then decreasing, which may lead to a year-on-year increase in live pig output [7] - The average price of piglets in the first half of 2026 is expected to range between 270-430 yuan per head, supported by farmers' optimism about the second half of the year [9]
今日猪价走势:全国震荡偏弱,供需博弈进入关键期
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-22 04:27
Core Viewpoint - The national pig market is experiencing a weak and fluctuating trend, with regional price disparities and a general decline in prices observed recently [2][17][19]. Price Dynamics - The average national pig price has decreased to approximately 6.55 yuan per jin (about 13.10 yuan per kilogram), reflecting a slight drop of 0.03 yuan per jin compared to the previous day [2][4][19]. - Northern regions are seeing a price decline due to increased market supply following the end of snow, while southern markets remain relatively stable [5][20]. - In the Northeast, pig prices are weak, with mainstream prices ranging from 6.3 to 6.45 yuan per jin, while Hebei's prices are stable at 6.5 to 6.7 yuan per jin [6][21][22]. - The southern market, particularly in Guangdong, maintains the highest price at 7.2 yuan per jin [8][23]. Supply Side Analysis - The supply side is characterized by ample stock but slow short-term outflow, with a total pig stock of 36.92 million heads as of December 2025, showing a slight decrease of 0.23% month-on-month but a year-on-year increase of 5.69% [9][24]. - As of January 20, the overall slaughter progress of sample enterprises is only 64.94%, with significant regional differences, particularly in Jiangsu, where some farms are slowing down their slaughter pace [10][25]. Demand Side Changes and Slaughter Challenges - The pork consumption is entering a seasonal peak, but demand is complex, with northern regions experiencing low slaughter volumes due to previous snowfall [12][26]. - Southern consumption is weakening due to population return trends, leading to a decrease in sales concentration [12][26]. - Slaughter enterprises are facing operational pressures, with some reporting losses of 50-60 yuan per head, which is suppressing their operational capacity [12][26]. Future Market Outlook and Recommendations - With three weeks remaining until the Spring Festival, the market is entering a critical pre-holiday negotiation period [27]. - Short-term expectations suggest that pig prices may experience wide fluctuations and slight declines before the festival, with potential price increases around key dates like the Laba Festival [28]. - Mid-term projections indicate that the pig market will remain under pressure until a thorough capacity clearance occurs, with high supply levels expected to persist into the first half of 2026 [28]. - Notably, the price of weaned piglets has risen for three consecutive weeks, reaching an average of 253.33 yuan per head, indicating a potential positive market outlook [28].
供给端压力有所缓解 生猪主力合约维持合理贴水
Jin Tou Wang· 2026-01-19 06:05
Group 1 - The domestic futures market for agricultural products experienced a decline, with live pig futures trading at 11,725.00 yuan/ton, reflecting a drop of 1.92% [1] - In the spot market, live pig prices saw a significant increase over the weekend, with the national average price rising by 0.43 yuan/kg [2] - Supply pressure has eased, as the planned slaughter volume for key breeding enterprises in January is 14.15 million heads, a decrease of 2.96% compared to the actual slaughter volume in December 2025 [2] Group 2 - Demand for live pigs is currently in a peak season, with expectations of increased demand as preparations for the Spring Festival begin, despite a temporary lull post-New Year [2] - Frozen meat inventory is declining slightly, as slaughterhouses are actively depleting frozen products due to weak market expectations for the post-holiday period [2] - Short-term pig prices are primarily influenced by market sentiment, with positive profit margins for piglets and commodity pigs, although there are risks associated with increased slaughter pressure later in the month [2]
季节性消费驱动 2026年生猪价格面临“一波三折”
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2026-01-19 00:58
Group 1 - The average price of live pigs in China as of January 16 is 12.72 yuan/kg, an increase of 2 yuan/kg from the lowest point in 2025 [1] - Seasonal consumption is driving the current price increase, but there are concerns about price fluctuations before and after the Spring Festival [1] - The supply of new piglets has been increasing, indicating a potential rise in pig slaughter numbers before March 2026 [1] Group 2 - The seasonal increase in pork consumption is expected to support prices, with a peak average price projected at 13 yuan/kg before the Spring Festival [2] - After the Spring Festival, supply pressures are anticipated to push prices down to a low of 10.5 yuan/kg due to weak demand [2] - The second quarter of 2026 may see a turning point in supply, with a potential stabilization of prices between 11 to 12 yuan/kg [3] Group 3 - The number of breeding sows has decreased, indicating accelerated liquidation, which may affect supply levels in the second half of 2026 [4] - Price expectations for the third quarter of 2026 are for seasonal increases, with average prices projected between 12 to 13.5 yuan/kg [4] - The overall supply of pigs is influenced by breeding sow numbers, production efficiency, and slaughter weights, which should be monitored closely [5]
生猪周报:短时近月或偏强-20260117
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2026-01-17 13:57
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term: The structural contradiction remains unresolved, the downward driving force of the spot is insufficient, and the near - month futures may continue to be strongly volatile. Mid - term: The supply base is still large, and there is a risk of the living inventory piling up later. The far - end price may face concentrated realization and remain under pressure [11][12]. - Low prices and festival effects stimulate better consumption. The large fat - standard price difference leads to the sentiment of hoarding and delaying sales. After the Winter Solstice, the spot price has significantly increased, driving a rational rebound in the futures [11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Spot Market**: Last week, domestic pig prices fluctuated. Overall, the north was stronger than the south. In the early part of the week, the enthusiasm of farmers to sell was low, the market supply was limited, and downstream buyers raised prices to purchase. But the market digestion ability was limited. In the later part of the week, as the supply increased, the price declined. The weekly slaughter volume decreased, the average trading weight increased, the fat - standard price difference was higher year - on - year but declined month - on - month. In the short - term, pig prices may continue to fluctuate. In the medium - term, pig prices may rise again as the pre - Spring Festival demand peak approaches [11]. - **Supply Side**: Since last year, the reduction of sows has been limited. Although the capacity reduction has accelerated since October, due to the time - lag effect, the theoretical supply in at least the first half of this year is still large, and the fundamentals will improve in the second half of the year. In December last year, the pig price was not weak, which slowed down the sow reduction progress, with the sow inventory increasing by 0.54% month - on - month according to Yongyi data. The theoretical出栏量 remains high in the first half of the year, peaking in March. After April, although there is a seasonal decline month - on - month, the decline is small and the year - on - year volume is still high. Currently, the supply of large pigs in the market is tight, the fat - standard price difference is high year - on - year, which leads to strong sentiment of hoarding and delaying sales among upstream farmers. Although the slaughter volume is not low, the average trading weight has increased against the season, indicating a sign of the living inventory piling up later [11]. - **Demand Side**: Slaughtering enterprises reported that the sales speed of white - striped pigs was slow, and their acceptance of high - priced live pigs was decreasing, which restricted the increase of pig prices to some extent [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, go long on the 03 contract in the short - term and wait to go short on the 05 and 07 contracts. For arbitrage, prefer positive spreads [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Spot Trend**: Last week, pig prices first declined and then rose. The supply of large pigs was tight, and the upstream hoarding sentiment was strong. But after New Year's Day, the demand decreased, which narrowed the price increase. The average trading weight was larger year - on - year and increased month - on - month, and the fat - standard price difference declined from a high level but was still large year - on - year. Next week, the supply will increase slightly, which has a negative impact on the market. However, the resistance sentiment of farmers may limit the price decline. The demand support is insufficient due to the decrease in slaughter volume and the slowdown of secondary fattening. It is expected that pig prices will mainly show a stable and slightly declining trend [22]. - **Basis and Spread Trend**: The spot price rebounded, the futures basis turned positive, and the monthly spread turned to a positive spread [25]. 3.3 Supply Side - **Sow Inventory and Changes**: Since last year, the reduction of sows has been limited. Although the capacity reduction has accelerated since October, the theoretical supply in at least the first half of this year is still large due to the time - lag effect. The fundamentals will improve in the second half of the year. In December last year, the pig price was not weak, which slowed down the sow reduction progress, with the sow inventory increasing by 0.54% month - on - month according to Yongyi data [34]. - **Theoretical出栏量**: From the piglet data, the theoretical出栏量 remains high in the first half of the year, peaking in March. After April, although there is a seasonal decline month - on - month, the decline is small and the year - on - year volume is still high [42]. - **Size of Slaughtered Pigs**: The proportion of small pigs in slaughter is generally low but slowly rising, indicating that the current epidemic situation has increased but is generally controllable. The proportion of large pigs has seasonally increased, indicating that large pigs from散户 are gradually being sold [45]. - **Trading and Post - slaughter Average Weight**: Currently, the supply of large pigs in the market is tight, the fat - standard price difference is high year - on - year, which leads to strong sentiment of hoarding and delaying sales among upstream farmers. Although the slaughter volume is not low, the average trading weight has increased against the season, indicating a sign of the living inventory piling up later [49]. 3.4 Demand Side - **Slaughter Volume**: Currently, the increase in slaughter volume is limited, and its support for the market is insufficient. The price of large pigs is high, the pace of secondary fattening replenishment has slowed down, and the support from secondary fattening demand is also insufficient [58]. 3.5 Cost and Profit - Due to factors such as feed cost and efficiency improvement, the cost is in a continuous decline state. The pig price is the weakest in the same period in many years. Although the cost is low, there has been an overall loss this year [69]. 3.6 Inventory Side - The frozen product inventory is in a state of slow recovery and active inventory accumulation [74].
生猪养殖行业规模场产能变化和后续价格分析
2026-01-16 02:53
Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview: Swine Farming Industry - The swine farming industry is experiencing a shift in production capacity and pricing dynamics as of the end of 2025, with a notable increase in the breeding sow inventory by 8.2% year-on-year, but a significant month-on-month decline in December [1][2] - The number of replacement sows has been decreasing since September, particularly in small-scale farms, while large enterprises maintain stable production capacity, indicating a tightening supply of pigs in the future [1][2] Core Insights and Arguments - In 2025, the external sales of breeding pigs decreased by 5.3% year-on-year, while the number of culled sows increased by approximately 23.6%, leading to a slight overall production capacity decline of 2-3% [1][3][4] - The fourth quarter of 2025 saw unusual price fluctuations, with prices soaring in the first half and plummeting in the second half, dropping below 11 yuan/kg due to high slaughter and wholesale volumes in October [1][6] - The price of live pigs is expected to fluctuate around the cost line in the future, influenced by the willingness of farmers to sell, which is a critical factor to monitor [1][9] Production Efficiency and Market Dynamics - The production efficiency in the swine industry has significantly improved, with the PSY (pigs weaned per sow per year) nearing 27, a 4.8% increase year-on-year, while the average number of healthy piglets per litter remains stable at around 12.1-12.2 [3][14][15] - The average cost for large-scale breeding farms is approximately 13.4 yuan/kg, with expectations for 2026 prices to be slightly lower than in 2025, with most large enterprises predicting prices between 12-13 yuan/kg [17][18] Market Sentiment and Future Expectations - The market sentiment is cautious, with expectations of price stabilization around the cost line, depending on the supply dynamics and farmers' selling behavior [1][9] - The concentration of production in large enterprises is increasing due to their advantages in disease prevention, funding, and market analysis, making it difficult for small farms to compete [3][10] - The overall stability of the swine industry is attributed to improved disease control capabilities among large enterprises, which has positively impacted production efficiency [16] Additional Important Insights - The significant increase in slaughter volumes in October, November, and December indicates a rise in market supply, which may prevent prices from rising significantly [1][9] - The reduction in the number of small-scale farms (under 5,000 pigs) is primarily due to competitive disadvantages in disease prevention and funding, leading to a further concentration of the industry [10] - The potential for losses in 2026 is considered low, as the industry experienced good profits in 2025, with expectations that demand and other factors may stabilize profits in the coming year [18]
国家级生猪大数据中心:1月5日全国生猪均价12.42元/公斤 预计明日猪价微涨
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2026-01-05 12:21
Core Viewpoint - The national average price of live pigs has shown a slight increase, indicating a stable upward trend in the market despite regional variations in supply and demand [1] Price Monitoring - As of January 5, 2026, the average price of live pigs in China is 12.42 yuan per kilogram, which is an increase of 0.01 yuan per kilogram from the previous day [1] - The price monitoring indicates that 31 provinces have experienced 15 price increases, 13 decreases, and 3 stable prices, reflecting a mixed market response [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - The supply side has seen an accelerated pace of pig sales post-holiday, leading to a generally relaxed supply situation in the market [1] - The demand side has weakened as the New Year stocking surge subsides, resulting in reduced order volumes and operating rates at slaughterhouses, particularly in southern markets [1] - The meat supply index in Chongqing has decreased by 37.10% compared to the previous day, indicating a drop in meat supply [1] Regional Price Differentiation - The price differentiation shows a trend of rising prices in the north and falling prices in the south, highlighting regional disparities in market dynamics [1] - The average price difference across 21 major regions is approximately 0.37 yuan per kilogram, remaining stable compared to the previous day but below the average transportation cost of 0.69 yuan per kilogram [1] Future Price Expectations - It is anticipated that pig prices may experience a slight increase tomorrow, influenced by the current market conditions [1]