1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current supply pressure of live pigs is relatively high, and the overall price is declining. Although the scale enterprises' slaughter volume has decreased, it is still relatively high. The slaughter volume of ordinary farmers remains normal, and the number of secondary fattening entries has decreased. The supply pressure may improve, but the overall supply is still relatively sufficient, and the later supply pressure may still be obvious. The overall direction of the live pig spot market is expected to be downward, and the pig price still has a certain downward pressure. The live pig futures price showed a slight increase today, with obvious support in the far - month futures market. In the near - term market, the slaughter pressure of live pigs may continue, but there may be certain support on the spot side, and the deep - decline space is limited. In the medium - term, the overall direction of the spot market will still be downward, and the futures market may show certain support [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Spot Price - Today, the live pig prices across the country showed a downward trend. The average price was 11.74 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.28 yuan/kg compared with yesterday. The prices in various regions all declined, with the largest decline of 0.51 yuan/kg in Zhejiang and Jiangxi, and the smallest decline of 0.09 yuan/kg in Sichuan [1] 3.2 Futures Price - The live pig futures prices showed a slight increase today. For example, LH01 increased by 100 to 13355, LH07 increased by 125 to 12295, LH09 increased by 155 to 13210, and LH11 increased by 170 to 13130 [1] 3.3 Sow/Piglet Price - The piglet price was 366 yuan, a decrease of 1 yuan compared with last week; the sow price was 1557 yuan, unchanged from last week [1] 3.4 Contract Spread - LH7 - 9 was - 915, a decrease of 30 compared with yesterday; LH9 - 1 was - 145, an increase of 55 compared with yesterday; LH9 - 11 was 8, an increase of 8 compared with yesterday; LH11 - 1 was - 225, an increase of 70 compared with yesterday [1] 3.5 Slaughter End - The slaughter volume was 190958 heads, a decrease of 816 compared with yesterday [1] 3.6 Size Pig Spread - The spread between standard pigs and medium - sized pigs was 0.69, an increase of 0.01 compared with yesterday; the spread between medium - large pigs and standard pigs was 0.25, a decrease of 0.04 compared with yesterday; the spread between large pigs and medium - large pigs was 0.83, an increase of 0.08 compared with yesterday; the spread between large pigs and standard pigs was 1.08, an increase of 0.04 compared with yesterday [1] 3.7 Trading Strategy - Unilateral: It is recommended to reduce and exit the long positions of the 05 contract. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Sell the wide - straddle strategy [4]

Group 1 - The average price of pork in China's wholesale markets increased by 0.6% to 18.61 yuan/kg as of January 30, compared to 18.49 yuan/kg on January 23, while the weekly average price rose by 0.8% to 18.65 yuan/kg from 18.5 yuan/kg [1] - Domestic pig prices showed a slight increase followed by a continuous decline, with the average price of live pigs (external three yuan) dropping by 3.2% to 12.52 yuan/kg from 12.93 yuan/kg on January 23, and the weekly average price decreased by 2.3% to 12.81 yuan/kg from 13.11 yuan/kg [1] Group 2 - The average trading weight of live pigs in China slightly decreased by 0.14% to 124.33 kg, with northern regions showing a trend of reduced weights while southern regions experienced slight increases [2] - The operating rate of major domestic pig slaughtering enterprises increased to an average of 41.28%, up by 0.40 percentage points from the previous week, driven by increased orders due to pre-festival stocking demands [2] - The expectation of increased weight reduction in the breeding sector is beginning to materialize, with current demand in a lull period before the festival, indicating potential pressure on pig prices due to concentrated supply release [2] Group 3 - The theoretical output of standard pigs in China is expected to remain high into the second quarter, with concerns over whether new policy guidance will be introduced due to slower-than-expected capacity reduction in the previous quarter [3] - Short-term demand for the pre-festival peak is starting slowly, with high live inventory levels leading to potential pressure on larger pigs post-festival [3] - Future market trends are anticipated to show a pattern of decline followed by a rebound and subsequent drop, influenced by high output from breeding groups and local demand fluctuations due to returning workers in southern regions [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the pig market prices are expected to decline year-on-year in 2025, leading to reduced profitability for farmers and a decrease in the willingness to restock piglets [1][3] - In 2025, the average price of piglets is projected to be 391.02 yuan per head, a year-on-year decrease of 15.70%, reflecting a seasonal trend of "rise-fall-slight rise" [1] - The average price of live pigs in 2025 is expected to be 13.74 yuan per kilogram, down 17.97% year-on-year, with the highest price recorded at 16.36 yuan per kilogram and the lowest at 10.72 yuan per kilogram [3] Group 2 - In 2025, nearly half of the time, the piglet fattening model is expected to operate at a loss, with an average profit of 20.32 yuan per head, a decrease of 376.93 yuan per head year-on-year [5] - The cost of piglet restocking is anticipated to fluctuate, impacting the profitability of piglet fattening, which is primarily influenced by the costs of restocking and live pig prices [5] - For the first half of 2026, piglet prices may rise due to seasonal factors, despite ongoing downward pressure on live pig prices [7][9] Group 3 - The supply pressure for live pigs in 2026 remains significant, with the number of breeding sows showing a trend of first increasing and then decreasing, which may lead to a year-on-year increase in live pig output [7] - The average price of piglets in the first half of 2026 is expected to range between 270-430 yuan per head, supported by farmers' optimism about the second half of the year [9]

Core Viewpoint - The national pig market is experiencing a weak and fluctuating trend, with regional price disparities and a general decline in prices observed recently [2][17][19]. Price Dynamics - The average national pig price has decreased to approximately 6.55 yuan per jin (about 13.10 yuan per kilogram), reflecting a slight drop of 0.03 yuan per jin compared to the previous day [2][4][19]. - Northern regions are seeing a price decline due to increased market supply following the end of snow, while southern markets remain relatively stable [5][20]. - In the Northeast, pig prices are weak, with mainstream prices ranging from 6.3 to 6.45 yuan per jin, while Hebei's prices are stable at 6.5 to 6.7 yuan per jin [6][21][22]. - The southern market, particularly in Guangdong, maintains the highest price at 7.2 yuan per jin [8][23]. Supply Side Analysis - The supply side is characterized by ample stock but slow short-term outflow, with a total pig stock of 36.92 million heads as of December 2025, showing a slight decrease of 0.23% month-on-month but a year-on-year increase of 5.69% [9][24]. - As of January 20, the overall slaughter progress of sample enterprises is only 64.94%, with significant regional differences, particularly in Jiangsu, where some farms are slowing down their slaughter pace [10][25]. Demand Side Changes and Slaughter Challenges - The pork consumption is entering a seasonal peak, but demand is complex, with northern regions experiencing low slaughter volumes due to previous snowfall [12][26]. - Southern consumption is weakening due to population return trends, leading to a decrease in sales concentration [12][26]. - Slaughter enterprises are facing operational pressures, with some reporting losses of 50-60 yuan per head, which is suppressing their operational capacity [12][26]. Future Market Outlook and Recommendations - With three weeks remaining until the Spring Festival, the market is entering a critical pre-holiday negotiation period [27]. - Short-term expectations suggest that pig prices may experience wide fluctuations and slight declines before the festival, with potential price increases around key dates like the Laba Festival [28]. - Mid-term projections indicate that the pig market will remain under pressure until a thorough capacity clearance occurs, with high supply levels expected to persist into the first half of 2026 [28]. - Notably, the price of weaned piglets has risen for three consecutive weeks, reaching an average of 253.33 yuan per head, indicating a potential positive market outlook [28].

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for agricultural products experienced a decline, with live pig futures trading at 11,725.00 yuan/ton, reflecting a drop of 1.92% [1] - In the spot market, live pig prices saw a significant increase over the weekend, with the national average price rising by 0.43 yuan/kg [2] - Supply pressure has eased, as the planned slaughter volume for key breeding enterprises in January is 14.15 million heads, a decrease of 2.96% compared to the actual slaughter volume in December 2025 [2] Group 2 - Demand for live pigs is currently in a peak season, with expectations of increased demand as preparations for the Spring Festival begin, despite a temporary lull post-New Year [2] - Frozen meat inventory is declining slightly, as slaughterhouses are actively depleting frozen products due to weak market expectations for the post-holiday period [2] - Short-term pig prices are primarily influenced by market sentiment, with positive profit margins for piglets and commodity pigs, although there are risks associated with increased slaughter pressure later in the month [2]

Group 1 - The average price of live pigs in China as of January 16 is 12.72 yuan/kg, an increase of 2 yuan/kg from the lowest point in 2025 [1] - Seasonal consumption is driving the current price increase, but there are concerns about price fluctuations before and after the Spring Festival [1] - The supply of new piglets has been increasing, indicating a potential rise in pig slaughter numbers before March 2026 [1] Group 2 - The seasonal increase in pork consumption is expected to support prices, with a peak average price projected at 13 yuan/kg before the Spring Festival [2] - After the Spring Festival, supply pressures are anticipated to push prices down to a low of 10.5 yuan/kg due to weak demand [2] - The second quarter of 2026 may see a turning point in supply, with a potential stabilization of prices between 11 to 12 yuan/kg [3] Group 3 - The number of breeding sows has decreased, indicating accelerated liquidation, which may affect supply levels in the second half of 2026 [4] - Price expectations for the third quarter of 2026 are for seasonal increases, with average prices projected between 12 to 13.5 yuan/kg [4] - The overall supply of pigs is influenced by breeding sow numbers, production efficiency, and slaughter weights, which should be monitored closely [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term: The structural contradiction remains unresolved, the downward driving force of the spot is insufficient, and the near - month futures may continue to be strongly volatile. Mid - term: The supply base is still large, and there is a risk of the living inventory piling up later. The far - end price may face concentrated realization and remain under pressure [11][12]. - Low prices and festival effects stimulate better consumption. The large fat - standard price difference leads to the sentiment of hoarding and delaying sales. After the Winter Solstice, the spot price has significantly increased, driving a rational rebound in the futures [11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Spot Market**: Last week, domestic pig prices fluctuated. Overall, the north was stronger than the south. In the early part of the week, the enthusiasm of farmers to sell was low, the market supply was limited, and downstream buyers raised prices to purchase. But the market digestion ability was limited. In the later part of the week, as the supply increased, the price declined. The weekly slaughter volume decreased, the average trading weight increased, the fat - standard price difference was higher year - on - year but declined month - on - month. In the short - term, pig prices may continue to fluctuate. In the medium - term, pig prices may rise again as the pre - Spring Festival demand peak approaches [11]. - **Supply Side**: Since last year, the reduction of sows has been limited. Although the capacity reduction has accelerated since October, due to the time - lag effect, the theoretical supply in at least the first half of this year is still large, and the fundamentals will improve in the second half of the year. In December last year, the pig price was not weak, which slowed down the sow reduction progress, with the sow inventory increasing by 0.54% month - on - month according to Yongyi data. The theoretical出栏量 remains high in the first half of the year, peaking in March. After April, although there is a seasonal decline month - on - month, the decline is small and the year - on - year volume is still high. Currently, the supply of large pigs in the market is tight, the fat - standard price difference is high year - on - year, which leads to strong sentiment of hoarding and delaying sales among upstream farmers. Although the slaughter volume is not low, the average trading weight has increased against the season, indicating a sign of the living inventory piling up later [11]. - **Demand Side**: Slaughtering enterprises reported that the sales speed of white - striped pigs was slow, and their acceptance of high - priced live pigs was decreasing, which restricted the increase of pig prices to some extent [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, go long on the 03 contract in the short - term and wait to go short on the 05 and 07 contracts. For arbitrage, prefer positive spreads [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Spot Trend**: Last week, pig prices first declined and then rose. The supply of large pigs was tight, and the upstream hoarding sentiment was strong. But after New Year's Day, the demand decreased, which narrowed the price increase. The average trading weight was larger year - on - year and increased month - on - month, and the fat - standard price difference declined from a high level but was still large year - on - year. Next week, the supply will increase slightly, which has a negative impact on the market. However, the resistance sentiment of farmers may limit the price decline. The demand support is insufficient due to the decrease in slaughter volume and the slowdown of secondary fattening. It is expected that pig prices will mainly show a stable and slightly declining trend [22]. - **Basis and Spread Trend**: The spot price rebounded, the futures basis turned positive, and the monthly spread turned to a positive spread [25]. 3.3 Supply Side - **Sow Inventory and Changes**: Since last year, the reduction of sows has been limited. Although the capacity reduction has accelerated since October, the theoretical supply in at least the first half of this year is still large due to the time - lag effect. The fundamentals will improve in the second half of the year. In December last year, the pig price was not weak, which slowed down the sow reduction progress, with the sow inventory increasing by 0.54% month - on - month according to Yongyi data [34]. - **Theoretical出栏量**: From the piglet data, the theoretical出栏量 remains high in the first half of the year, peaking in March. After April, although there is a seasonal decline month - on - month, the decline is small and the year - on - year volume is still high [42]. - **Size of Slaughtered Pigs**: The proportion of small pigs in slaughter is generally low but slowly rising, indicating that the current epidemic situation has increased but is generally controllable. The proportion of large pigs has seasonally increased, indicating that large pigs from散户 are gradually being sold [45]. - **Trading and Post - slaughter Average Weight**: Currently, the supply of large pigs in the market is tight, the fat - standard price difference is high year - on - year, which leads to strong sentiment of hoarding and delaying sales among upstream farmers. Although the slaughter volume is not low, the average trading weight has increased against the season, indicating a sign of the living inventory piling up later [49]. 3.4 Demand Side - **Slaughter Volume**: Currently, the increase in slaughter volume is limited, and its support for the market is insufficient. The price of large pigs is high, the pace of secondary fattening replenishment has slowed down, and the support from secondary fattening demand is also insufficient [58]. 3.5 Cost and Profit - Due to factors such as feed cost and efficiency improvement, the cost is in a continuous decline state. The pig price is the weakest in the same period in many years. Although the cost is low, there has been an overall loss this year [69]. 3.6 Inventory Side - The frozen product inventory is in a state of slow recovery and active inventory accumulation [74].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview: Swine Farming Industry - The swine farming industry is experiencing a shift in production capacity and pricing dynamics as of the end of 2025, with a notable increase in the breeding sow inventory by 8.2% year-on-year, but a significant month-on-month decline in December [1][2] - The number of replacement sows has been decreasing since September, particularly in small-scale farms, while large enterprises maintain stable production capacity, indicating a tightening supply of pigs in the future [1][2] Core Insights and Arguments - In 2025, the external sales of breeding pigs decreased by 5.3% year-on-year, while the number of culled sows increased by approximately 23.6%, leading to a slight overall production capacity decline of 2-3% [1][3][4] - The fourth quarter of 2025 saw unusual price fluctuations, with prices soaring in the first half and plummeting in the second half, dropping below 11 yuan/kg due to high slaughter and wholesale volumes in October [1][6] - The price of live pigs is expected to fluctuate around the cost line in the future, influenced by the willingness of farmers to sell, which is a critical factor to monitor [1][9] Production Efficiency and Market Dynamics - The production efficiency in the swine industry has significantly improved, with the PSY (pigs weaned per sow per year) nearing 27, a 4.8% increase year-on-year, while the average number of healthy piglets per litter remains stable at around 12.1-12.2 [3][14][15] - The average cost for large-scale breeding farms is approximately 13.4 yuan/kg, with expectations for 2026 prices to be slightly lower than in 2025, with most large enterprises predicting prices between 12-13 yuan/kg [17][18] Market Sentiment and Future Expectations - The market sentiment is cautious, with expectations of price stabilization around the cost line, depending on the supply dynamics and farmers' selling behavior [1][9] - The concentration of production in large enterprises is increasing due to their advantages in disease prevention, funding, and market analysis, making it difficult for small farms to compete [3][10] - The overall stability of the swine industry is attributed to improved disease control capabilities among large enterprises, which has positively impacted production efficiency [16] Additional Important Insights - The significant increase in slaughter volumes in October, November, and December indicates a rise in market supply, which may prevent prices from rising significantly [1][9] - The reduction in the number of small-scale farms (under 5,000 pigs) is primarily due to competitive disadvantages in disease prevention and funding, leading to a further concentration of the industry [10] - The potential for losses in 2026 is considered low, as the industry experienced good profits in 2025, with expectations that demand and other factors may stabilize profits in the coming year [18]

Core Viewpoint - The national average price of live pigs has shown a slight increase, indicating a stable upward trend in the market despite regional variations in supply and demand [1] Price Monitoring - As of January 5, 2026, the average price of live pigs in China is 12.42 yuan per kilogram, which is an increase of 0.01 yuan per kilogram from the previous day [1] - The price monitoring indicates that 31 provinces have experienced 15 price increases, 13 decreases, and 3 stable prices, reflecting a mixed market response [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - The supply side has seen an accelerated pace of pig sales post-holiday, leading to a generally relaxed supply situation in the market [1] - The demand side has weakened as the New Year stocking surge subsides, resulting in reduced order volumes and operating rates at slaughterhouses, particularly in southern markets [1] - The meat supply index in Chongqing has decreased by 37.10% compared to the previous day, indicating a drop in meat supply [1] Regional Price Differentiation - The price differentiation shows a trend of rising prices in the north and falling prices in the south, highlighting regional disparities in market dynamics [1] - The average price difference across 21 major regions is approximately 0.37 yuan per kilogram, remaining stable compared to the previous day but below the average transportation cost of 0.69 yuan per kilogram [1] Future Price Expectations - It is anticipated that pig prices may experience a slight increase tomorrow, influenced by the current market conditions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic pig prices are expected to experience fluctuations in January 2026, with initial tight supply followed by a potential increase in supply later in the month, leading to a possible rise in prices after a brief decline [1][7]. Supply and Demand Analysis - In December 2025, the average price of lean pigs was 11.52 yuan/kg, with a slight decrease of 0.54% month-on-month, which was less than expected. Notably, from December 26 to December 30, the price increased from 11.63 yuan/kg to 12.47 yuan/kg, a rise of 0.84 yuan/kg [3]. - The supply of pigs in January 2026 is projected to show a slight decline due to a decrease in the number of breeding sows, despite some over-selling in December. The theoretical output for January is expected to be lower compared to December [3][5]. - The pig farming focus is concentrated in the southwestern and southern regions, with expected increases in supply from the south in January, while demand is anticipated to rise more significantly in the northern regions, particularly in central areas like Henan, Shandong, Hebei, Jiangsu, and Anhui [5][7]. Regional Dynamics - The demand in the southern market is expected to decrease after the end of the pickling season, while the northern market will see an increase in demand, leading to a potential oversupply situation in the south and an expansion of price differences between the regions [5][7]. - The supply-demand relationship is expected to shift, with the southern market's influence on pricing potentially transferring to the central regions before the Spring Festival [1][7].