生猪现货矛盾释放
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生猪:累库持续,等待现货矛盾释放
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-11-07 02:08
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report presents the current situation of the pig market, including prices, production, and trading data, but does not explicitly state a core view. The trend intensity is rated as neutral (0), indicating neither a strong bullish nor bearish outlook [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Prices**: The Henan spot price is 11,980 yuan/ton, Sichuan spot is 11,500 yuan/ton, and Guangdong spot is 12,460 yuan/ton. For futures, the price of live hog 2601 is 11,940 yuan/ton (down 5 yuan/ton), and live hog 2603 is 11,490 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1]. - **Market Information**: In September, the national feed output was 30.36 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3.4% and a year - on - year increase of 5% [2]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view on the market trend, with a range of [-2, 2] where -2 is most bearish and 2 is most bullish [3]. 3.3 Trading Data - **Volume and Open Interest**: For live hog 2601, the trading volume is 78,781 lots (down 57,304 lots from the previous day), and the open interest is 132,466 lots (down 3,917 lots). For live hog 2603, the trading volume is 17,336 lots (down 15,254 lots), and the open interest is 108,284 lots (up 961 lots). For live hog 2605, the trading volume is 7,930 lots (down 9,991 lots), and the open interest is 59,807 lots (up 1,210 lots) [4]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of live hog 2601 is 40 yuan/ton (up 105 yuan/ton year - on - year), live hog 2603 is 490 yuan/ton (up 100 yuan/ton year - on - year), and live hog 2605 is -45 yuan/ton (up 115 yuan/ton year - on - year). The spread between live hog 1 - 3 is 450 yuan/ton, and between live hog 3 - 5 is -535 yuan/ton [4].