Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: March 27, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The supply side of the pig market has large pressure as the production capacity continues to be realized and the slaughter volume increases. The demand side is in a state of slow recovery. The overall supply - demand situation is still relatively loose, and the spot price is mainly in a weak shock. The futures market is also weak, and attention should be paid to the rhythm and volume of secondary fattening [9] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Futures Market - On the 26th, the main 2605 contract of live pigs opened slightly lower, then rose and then fell in shock, closing with a negative line. The highest price was 10,020 yuan/ton, the lowest was 9,830 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 9,980 yuan/ton, down 1.94% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 12,597 lots to 452,824 lots [8] Spot Market - On the 26th, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 9.40 yuan/kg, down 0.09 yuan/kg from the previous day [8] Supply - demand Analysis - Supply: In March, the planned slaughter volume was 27.25 million heads, with a monthly planned volume increase of 25.29% month - on - month, and the overall supply was still abundant [9] - Demand: As the price dropped to a low level and the price difference between fat and lean pigs was advantageous, there was a small amount of secondary fattening in some areas. The terminal demand continued to slowly increase, the orders of slaughtering enterprises increased slightly, and the slaughtering rate and volume increased slightly. On March 26th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 156,400 heads, an increase of 1,600 heads from the previous day, 4,100 heads week - on - week, and 34,000 heads month - on - month [9] Operation Suggestions - In the spot market, the price is mainly in a weak shock due to large supply pressure. In the futures market, the 05/07 contracts are mainly weak, and attention should be paid to the rhythm and volume of subsequent secondary fattening [9] Group 5: Industry News - As of March 19th, the expected cost of self - breeding and self - fattening was 12.21 yuan/kg, unchanged week - on - week. The cost of fattening with purchased piglets was affected by both feed and piglet prices. The expected cost of fattening purchased piglets to 125 kg and then selling was 12.15 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.27 yuan/kg week - on - week [10] Group 6: Data Overview - As of March 19th, the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - fattening was - 292 yuan/head, a decrease of 15.6 yuan/head week - on - week; the average profit per head of fattening with purchased piglets was - 189 yuan/head, a decrease of 10 yuan/head week - on - week [20] - In the week of March 19th, the average market sales price of 6.5 kg piglets was 294 yuan/head, a decrease of 32 yuan/head from the previous week [20] - In the week of March 19th, the average slaughter weight of national live pigs was 128.62 kg, an increase of 0.07 kg from the previous week, with a month - on - month increase of 0.05% [20] - In the week of March 19th, the cost of purchasing 110 kg pigs and fattening them to 140 kg was 10.17 yuan/kg, a slight increase of 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous week; the cost of purchasing 125 kg pigs and fattening them to 150 kg was 10.21 yuan/kg, the same as the previous week. The feed price and pig price did not change significantly, and the secondary fattening cost did not change much [20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On the supply side, the production capacity continues to be realized, and the slaughter of the breeding end continues to increase. The supply pressure remains high, and the overall supply level is still loose [10]. - On the demand side, the price has fallen to a low level, and the price difference between fat and lean pigs remains advantageous. Secondary fattening continues to enter the market in small quantities in some areas. The terminal demand is slowly recovering, the orders of slaughtering enterprises have increased slightly, and the operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises have increased slightly [10]. - Overall, on the spot market, demand is continuously and slowly increasing, but supply pressure is still high, and the supply - demand situation remains relatively loose. Spot prices are mainly fluctuating weakly. In the futures market, with sufficient production capacity, pig supply is expected to maintain a slight increasing trend. Secondary fattening is constantly entering the market in small quantities, and during the consumption off - season, the support for the market is weak. Hedging funds continue to enter the market. Contracts 05/07 are mainly weak, and attention should be paid to the rhythm and volume of subsequent secondary fattening [10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 23rd, the main 2605 contract of live pigs opened slightly lower and then fluctuated downwards, closing with a negative line at the end of the session. The highest price was 10,180 yuan/ton, the lowest was 9,975 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 9,980 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.53% compared with the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 9,167 lots to 417,743 lots [9]. - **Spot Market**: On the 23rd, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 9.69 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.12 yuan/kg compared with the previous day [9]. 3.2. Industry News - As of March 19, the expected cost of self - breeding and self - fattening was 12.21 yuan/kg, remaining flat week - on - week. The cost of fattening pigs purchased externally was affected by both feed prices and piglet prices. The expected cost of fattening externally purchased piglets to 125 kg and then selling them was 12.15 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.27 yuan/kg week - on - week [11][13]. 3.3. Data Overview - **Profit**: As of March 19, the average profit per self - bred and self - fattened pig was - 292 yuan/head, a decrease of 15.6 yuan/head week - on - week; the average profit per pig fattened with externally purchased piglets was - 189 yuan/head, a decrease of 10 yuan/head week - on - week [21]. - **Piglet Price**: The average market sales price of 6.5 - kg piglets in the week of March 19 was 294 yuan/head, a decrease of 32 yuan/head compared with the previous week [21]. - **Average Slaughter Weight**: In the week of March 19, the average slaughter weight of pigs nationwide was 128.62 kg, an increase of 0.07 kg compared with the previous week, with a month - on - month increase of 0.05% [21]. - **Secondary Fattening Cost**: In the week of March 19, the cost of purchasing 110 - kg pigs and fattening them to 140 kg was 10.17 yuan/kg, a slight increase of 0.03 yuan/kg compared with the previous week; the cost of purchasing 125 - kg pigs and fattening them to 150 kg was 10.21 yuan/kg, remaining the same as the previous week. Feed prices and pig prices did not change significantly, and the secondary fattening cost did not change much [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of pigs and pork is expected to decrease as the secondary fattening period of pigs in southern China ends and the demand for cured meat and sausages also finishes. The domestic macro - environment expectation has improved, but pork consumption has entered the off - season after the Spring Festival, and short - term overall consumption is still not optimistic. The pig price is expected to enter a weak and volatile pattern in the short term. The report also suggests paying attention to the changes in the slaughter rhythm of group farms at the end of the month and the dynamic changes at the bottom of the futures market when the spot price runs weakly after the release of the secondary fattening market. The expected price range for LH2605 is 10,000 - 10,400 [10]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents Daily Tips - The supply of pigs and pork is expected to decrease, and demand is weak. The pig price is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term. The expected price range for LH2605 is 10,000 - 10,400 [10]. Recent News - The domestic pig consumption market is affected by the end of the peak season, and the end of secondary fattening in the south has led to a decrease in pig supply. The spot price is expected to be weak in the short - term and maintain a range - bound pattern in the medium - term. The pig price may bottom out and then return to a volatile pattern. The pig farming profit has been in a small - scale loss recently, and the short - term enthusiasm for slaughtering large pigs has increased, suppressing the short - term pig futures and spot price expectations [12]. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: The domestic pig supply is in the off - season after the Spring Festival, and the domestic pig - to - grain ratio has fallen to the historical low range. - Bearish factors: The domestic pig demand is in the off - season after the Spring Festival, and the year - on - year decrease in domestic pig inventory is lower than expected [13]. Fundamental Data - **Supply - side Indicators**: - As of December 31, the pig inventory was 429.67 million, with a monthly - on - monthly decrease of 0.8% and a year - on - year increase of 0.5%. As of the end of December, the inventory of breeding sows was 39.61 million, with a monthly - on - monthly decrease of 0.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.9%. - As of March 31, the pig inventory was 408.5 million, with a month - on - month decrease of 5.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.2%. As of the end of May 2024, the inventory of breeding sows was 39.96 million, with a month - on - month increase of 0.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.2% [10][28]. - **Demand - side Indicators**: - The annual pork consumption has increased month - on - month, indicating a recovery of pork consumption preference due to price advantages [62]. Position Data - The net position of the main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing [10].

Report Overview - Report Name: "Supply Pressure Eases Slowly, Futures Violently Squeeze Premium - Guoxin Futures Live Pig Weekly Report" - Date: March 20, 2026 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the past week, the live pig spot market fluctuated weakly, with the national average price of standard pigs falling below 10 yuan, but the decline rate slowed down. The futures market fell sharply, with the main lh2605 contract dropping 8.34% to close at 10,215 yuan/ton. The futures were weaker than the spot, strengthening the basis, but it remained in a negative basis state. The large futures decline was mainly due to the high premium on the futures and the slow easing of spot supply pressure, leading to a reshaping of the futures valuation [7]. - Recently, the slaughter volume has increased rapidly, but the improvement in fresh product sales is limited, and the frozen product inventory has risen continuously, indicating that there is some warehousing behavior at the slaughter end. Second - round fattening replenishment has appeared sporadically, and the utilization rate of pigsties has increased, but the average slaughter weight remains high, suggesting that the de - stocking of live inventories is still slow. Given the current low absolute price, there is no economic rationality for hoarding, and passive hoarding in the industry is unsustainable. In the later stage, the risk of concentrated selling in the industry under increasing capital pressure needs to be guarded against [7]. - In the long term, the off - season performance of piglet prices, continuous losses in fattening profits, and falling futures prices will further affect the enthusiasm for replenishment. Piglet profits will fall into the loss range again, which may force the acceleration of capacity reduction. Policy - wise, relevant national departments held an industry meeting on Thursday, re - clarifying the direction of capacity regulation [7]. - In general, before the average weight effectively decreases, avoid bottom - fishing thinking for near - term contracts, and mainly adopt the idea of short - selling on rebounds or selling out - of - the - money call options. For far - term contracts, patiently wait for the right - side long - allocation opportunity after the acceleration of capacity reduction. Medium - term contracts are easily affected by spot pressure and long - term capacity reduction trading, so both long and short positions should pay attention to the safety margin of entry [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Weekly Analysis and Outlook - Spot market: The national average price of standard pigs fell below 10 yuan, and the decline rate slowed down. Futures market: The main lh2605 contract dropped 8.34% to 10,215 yuan/ton. The futures were weaker than the spot, and the basis strengthened but remained negative. The large futures decline was due to high premium and slow supply pressure easing [7]. - Fundamental situation: Slaughter volume increased rapidly, fresh product sales improved little, and frozen product inventory rose. Second - round fattening replenishment appeared sporadically, pigsty utilization rate increased, but average slaughter weight was high, and live inventory de - stocking was slow. Passive hoarding was unsustainable, and there was a risk of concentrated selling [7]. - Long - term trend: Piglet prices were weak in the peak season, fattening profits were in continuous loss, and futures prices fell, affecting replenishment enthusiasm. Piglet profits may enter the loss range again, forcing capacity reduction [7]. - Policy: National departments held a meeting to clarify capacity regulation [7]. - Investment strategy: Near - term contracts: Avoid bottom - fishing, short - sell on rebounds or sell out - of - the - money call options. Far - term contracts: Wait for the right - side long - allocation opportunity after capacity reduction. Medium - term contracts: Pay attention to the safety margin of entry [7]. 64. Central Reserve Frozen Pork Operations - Price over - decline: At the national level, do not start temporary reserve purchases when the third - level over - decline warning is issued; start as appropriate when the second - level warning is issued; start when the first - level warning is issued. Local conditions refer to the national practice [65]. - Price over - rise: In the case of market cyclical fluctuations, start reserve releases when the second - level over - rise warning is issued; increase the release intensity when the first - level warning is issued. In special situations such as major animal epidemic risks, tolerate a higher price increase. After the first - level warning is issued, organize releases mainly during key periods. Provinces can determine their own reserve release start conditions, which should not be higher than the central conditions [65].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength is -2, indicating the most bearish view. The range of trend strength is an integer within the [-2, 2] interval, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [3]. 2. Core View - The spot price of live pigs has weakened again, and the driving force for weight reduction is approaching [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: The Henan spot price is 9,980 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the Sichuan spot price is 10,050 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the Guangdong spot price is 10,860 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Futures Prices**: The prices of live pig futures contracts 2605, 2607, and 2609 are 10,335 yuan/ton (down 140 yuan), 11,370 yuan/ton (down 280 yuan), and 12,500 yuan/ton (down 140 yuan) respectively [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of live pig 2605 is 175,447 lots, an increase of 25,678 lots; the open interest is 199,811 lots, a decrease of 4,867 lots. The trading volume of live pig 2607 is 54,016 lots, an increase of 4,986 lots; the open interest is 72,200 lots, an increase of 783 lots. The trading volume of live pig 2609 is 31,577 lots, a decrease of 3,492 lots; the open interest is 64,895 lots, an increase of 298 lots [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis of live pig 2605 is -355 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; the basis of live pig 2607 is -1390 yuan/ton, up 230 yuan; the basis of live pig 2609 is -2520 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan. The spread between live pig 5 - 7 is -1035 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan; the spread between live pig 7 - 9 is -1130 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength is -2, indicating the most bearish view, with the range of trend strength being integers in the [-2, 2] interval [3]. 2. Core View - The report focuses on the situation of the pig industry, highlighting high inventory, high stock, high premium, and high positions in the pig market. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices in Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong are 10,030 yuan/ton, 10,150 yuan/ton, and 10,860 yuan/ton respectively, with year-on-year changes of -100 yuan/ton, -100 yuan/ton, and 0 yuan/ton [2]. - **Futures Prices**: The prices of pig futures contracts 2605, 2607, and 2609 are 10,475 yuan/ton, 11,650 yuan/ton, and 12,640 yuan/ton respectively, with year-on-year changes of -220 yuan/ton, -465 yuan/ton, and -445 yuan/ton [2]. - **Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of pig futures contracts 2605, 2607, and 2609 are 149,769 lots, 49,030 lots, and 35,069 lots respectively, with increases of 18,369 lots, 28,296 lots, and 20,355 lots compared to the previous day. The open interests are 204,678 lots, 71,417 lots, and 64,597 lots respectively, with increases of 2,280 lots, 5,185 lots, and 2,274 lots compared to the previous day [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis of pig futures contracts 2605, 2607, and 2609 are -445 yuan/ton, -1620 yuan/ton, and -2610 yuan/ton respectively, with year-on-year changes of 120 yuan/ton, 365 yuan/ton, and 345 yuan/ton. The spreads between pig futures contracts 5 - 7 and 7 - 9 are -1175 yuan/ton and -990 yuan/ton respectively, with year-on-year changes of 245 yuan/ton and -20 yuan/ton [2].

Group 1: Report Information - The report is a daily report on the hog industry dated February 26, 2026 [1][2] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions - Futures: On the 25th, the main hog contract 2605 opened slightly higher and fluctuated higher, closing up. The highest was 11,515 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,265 yuan/ton, and it closed at 11,465 yuan/ton, up 1.55% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 5,901 lots to 30,965 lots [9] - Spot: On the 25th, the average price of ternary hogs nationwide was 10.77 yuan/kg, down 0.16 yuan/kg from the previous day [9] - Supply: In February, the planned slaughter volume of sample breeding enterprises decreased by 17.73% month-on-month. Affected by the reduction in sales days during the holiday, the daily average increased by 21.44% month-on-month. Before the holiday, the slaughter enthusiasm of the breeding end increased, and the rhythm was fast. The slaughter volume including secondary fattening was released to a large extent. Currently, the overall supply level is still loose, and there is a sentiment of reluctance to sell at low prices in some areas [10] - Demand: After the festival, the price fell to a low level and the price difference between fat and standard pigs widened, and the number of secondary fattening entrants increased. After the festival, terminal consumption and slaughter decreased significantly, and trading was light. Currently, consumption is slowly recovering, the orders of slaughtering enterprises have increased slightly, and the operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises have increased slightly. On February 25th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 105,000 heads, an increase of 11,000 heads from the previous day, a decrease of 140,000 heads from before the festival, and a month-on-month decrease of 83,000 heads [10] - Overall: In the spot market, after the festival, demand is light and recovering slowly, and supply and demand are still relatively loose. Spot prices are mainly fluctuating weakly. In the futures market, production capacity is sufficient, hog supply is expected to maintain a slight increase, and after the festival, it enters the off-season of consumption, with weak support for the market. Contracts 03/05 are mainly fluctuating weakly, but attention should be paid to the rhythm and volume of subsequent secondary fattening [10] Group 3: Industry News - As of February 5th, the expected cost of self-breeding and self-raising was 12.08 yuan/kg, a week-on-week decrease of 0.1 yuan/kg. The cost of fattening with purchased piglets was affected by both feed prices and piglet prices. The expected cost of fattening purchased piglets to 125 kg and then slaughtering was 12.65 yuan/kg, a week-on-week decrease of 0.14 yuan/kg [11][12] Group 4: Data Overview - As of February 5th, the average profit per head of self-breeding and self-raising was 37 yuan/head, a week-on-week decrease of 9 yuan/head; the average profit per head of fattening with purchased piglets was -24.2 yuan/head, a week-on-week decrease of 10.3 yuan/head [15] - In the week of February 5th, the average market sales price of 6.5 kg piglets was 366 yuan/head, a decrease of 1 yuan/head from the previous week [15] - In the week of February 5th, the average slaughter weight of hogs nationwide was 127.40 kg, a decrease of 0.46 kg from the previous week, a week-on-week decrease of 0.36%, a decrease of 1.14 kg from the previous month, a month-on-month decrease of 0.89%, and an increase of 3.22 kg from the same period last year, a year-on-year increase of 2.59% [15] - In the week of February 5th, the price difference between 175 kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.93 yuan/jin, a week-on-week increase of 0.1 yuan/jin [15] - The cost of purchasing 110 kg and fattening to 140 kg this week was 11.86 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.48 yuan/kg from the previous week; the cost of purchasing 125 kg and fattening to 150 kg was 12.38 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.41 yuan/kg from the previous week [15]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2026, during the Spring Festival (February 16 - 23), the spot price of live pigs first rose and then fell. The national average price (external ternary) reached 11.59 yuan/kg on February 14, peaked at 12.20 - 12.30 yuan/kg on February 20, and was 12.49 yuan/kg on February 23. From late February to early March, the price will continue to bottom out, with a possible low of 11.0 - 11.2 yuan/kg. From mid - to late March, with a slight recovery in consumption and more pigs being held back, there will be a weak rebound to 11.4 - 11.6 yuan/kg [1]. - The LH05 contract will fluctuate in the range of 11,000 - 11,600 yuan/ton, currently in an accelerating downward phase with limited downward space [2]. - Factors to be concerned about include changes in the inventory of breeding sows, the progress of consumption recovery, and policy regulation dynamics [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - Spot price: After the Spring Festival, it first rose and then fell. It will continue to bottom out from late February to early March and have a weak rebound from mid - to late March [1]. - Futures: The LH05 contract is in an accelerating downward phase with limited downward space, fluctuating in the range of 11,000 - 11,600 yuan/ton [2]. 2. This Week's Fundamental Data Weekly Changes | Indicator | Unit | Latest Week | Last Period | Weekly Change | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Piglets | yuan/head | 357.14 | 357.62 | -0.48 | Weekly | | Weekly average slaughter weight | kg | 122.9 | 123.26 | -0.36 | Weekly | | Profit from purchasing piglets for breeding | yuan/head | 7.97 | -0.39 | 8.36 | Weekly | | Self - breeding and self - raising profit | yuan/head | -45.69 | 17.88 | -63.57 | Weekly | | Slaughter start - up rate | % | 26.22 | 43.84 | -17.62 | Weekly | [4] 3. Other Analyses - Supply situation analysis includes sample enterprise breeding sow inventory monthly trend chart, national sample commercial pig average slaughter weight weekly trend chart, and commercial pig inventory structure by weight [7][9][10]. - Demand situation analysis includes key slaughter enterprise start - up rate and key slaughter enterprise frozen product storage rate [14][17]. - Cost - profit analysis includes profit from purchasing piglets and self - breeding and self - raising profit [19][20].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - This weekend, the national pig price showed a weak and volatile trend. The north continued to be weak due to supply pressure, while the south showed a mixed trend of stability and decline supported by regional price differences. As the Minor New Year approaches, terminal stocking has limited support for prices, and the market pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged. In the short term, the resistance sentiment of the breeding side and the price - pressing mentality of slaughtering enterprises will continue to compete. The pig price in the north may adjust slightly, and the decline in the south may narrow due to active external sales, but overall, there is a lack of rebound momentum. It is expected that the pig price will remain weak before the Spring Festival [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Price Changes**: The previous day's closing prices for January, March, May, July, September, and November contracts were 13,200, 10,860, 11,625, 12,195, 13,100, and 13,025 respectively. Compared with two days ago, the prices decreased by 125, 135, 60, 50, 35, and 5, with corresponding declines of - 0.94%, - 1.23%, - 0.51%, - 0.41%, - 0.27%, and - 0.04% [2] - **Trading Volume**: The trading volumes of January, March, May, July, September, and November contracts were 507, 28,725, 48,568, 4,422, 3,814, and 2,121 respectively [2] - **Open Interest**: The open interests were 2,063, 65,988, 143,321, 50,102, 36,694, and 23,477 respectively. The changes in open interest were 267, - 8,876, - 1,148, - 154, - 481, and 412 [2] - **Spreads**: The current spreads of January - March, March - May, May - July, July - September, September - November, and November - January were 2,340, - 765, - 570, - 905, 75, and - 175 respectively, compared with previous values of 2,330, - 690, - 560, - 890, 105, and - 295 [2] Spot Market - **Price Changes**: The current spot prices in Henan, Sichuan, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, and Liaoning were 12.28, 11.54, 11.84, 11.74, 11.8, and 12.38 yuan/ton respectively. Compared with the previous value, the changes were - 0.08, - 23.08, - 0.04, - 0.16, - 0.04, and 0.24 [2] Warehouse Receipts - The quantity of warehouse receipts was 647 both the previous day and two days ago, with no change [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot market for live pigs shows a pattern of increasing supply and demand before the Spring Festival, with a relatively loose supply - demand situation, and the spot price is mainly oscillating weakly. The futures market has sufficient production capacity, and the supply of live pigs is expected to maintain a slight increase. Fattened pigs held back by second - round fattening still need to be sold after the festival, which will continue to put pressure on the market. After the festival, it enters the consumption off - season, and the support for the market is insufficient. Contracts 03/05 are mainly oscillating weakly [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - **Futures Market**: On the 4th, the main 2605 contract of live pigs opened slightly higher and then fluctuated upwards, closing with a positive line. The highest price was 11,800 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,580 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,735 yuan/ton, up 0.95% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 2,293 lots to 341,330 lots [7] - **Spot Market**: On the 4th, the average price of ternary live pigs nationwide was 12.12 yuan/kg, down 0.32 yuan/kg from the previous day [7] - **Analysis of Supply and Demand**: On the supply side, the utilization rate of second - round fattening pens is relatively high year - on - year, and there are still pigs to be slaughtered before the festival. The planned slaughter volume of sample breeding enterprises in February decreased by 17.73% month - on - month. Affected by the reduction of sales days during the holiday, the daily average increased by 21.44% month - on - month. The enthusiasm of the breeding side to slaughter increased in the first ten days, and the rhythm accelerated. The slaughter volume will be significantly released around the 23rd of the 12th lunar month. On the demand side, the spot price rebounded to a high level and the Spring Festival is approaching, so second - round fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state. The terminal consumer demand of residents is average, schools are on holiday one after another, group meals and other consumption may decrease, the sales of white - striped pork are poor, the orders of slaughtering enterprises have decreased in the short term, and the operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises have decreased slightly. The last wave of demand peak will be during the Spring Festival stocking period around the 23rd of the 12th lunar month in early February. On February 4th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 191,000 heads, 1,000 heads less than the previous day, an increase of 15,000 heads week - on - week, and an increase of 20,000 heads month - on - month [8] 3.2 行业要闻 - As of the end of January, the expected cost of self - breeding and self - fattening in the future is 12.18 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.09 yuan/kg month - on - month and a decrease of 0.82 yuan/kg compared with 13 yuan/kg year - on - year. The cost of fattening with externally purchased piglets is affected by both feed prices and piglet prices. The expected cost of externally purchased piglets after fattening to 125 kg for slaughter is 12.79 yuan/kg, an increase of 1.36 yuan/kg month - on - month and a decrease of 2.1 yuan/kg compared with 14.9 yuan/kg year - on - year [9][11] 3.3 数据概览 - **Profit**: As of January 30th, the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - fattening was 46 yuan/head, an increase of 170 yuan/head month - on - month; the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 34.5 yuan/head, an increase of 221 yuan/head month - on - month [14] - **Utilization Rate of Fattening Pens**: As of January 20th, the utilization rate of fattening pens was 37.7%, an increase of 3.8 percentage points ten - day - on - ten - day, an increase of 7.7 percentage points month - on - month, and an increase of 24 percentage points year - on - year [14] - **Price of 15 - kg Piglets**: The average market sales price of 15 - kg piglets monitored by Yongyi Consulting in January was 407.8 yuan/head, a month - on - month increase of 103 yuan/head, a rise of 33.8% [14] - **Average Slaughter Weight**: The average slaughter weight of live pigs nationwide in January was 128.6 kg, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2 kg, a decline of 0.9%, and an increase of 4.9 kg compared with the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 3.96% [14] - **Live Pig Slaughter and Pork Production in 2025**: In 2025, the slaughter of live pigs was 719.73 million heads, an increase of 17.16 million heads year - on - year, a growth of 2.4%. Among them, the slaughter of live pigs in the first to fourth quarters was 194.76 million heads, 171.43 million heads, 163.73 million heads, and 189.81 million heads respectively, with year - on - year growth of 0.1%, 1.2%, 4.7%, and 4.1% respectively. The pork production was 59.38 million tons, an increase of 2.32 million tons year - on - year, a growth of 4.1%, and the production reached a record high. Among them, the pork production in the first to fourth quarters was 16.02 million tons, 14.18 million tons, 13.48 million tons, and 15.70 million tons respectively, with year - on - year growth of 1.2%, 1.4%, 7.1%, and 5.2% respectively [14]