2025 年 8 月 25 日 【趋势强度】 在被动累库阶段，供应压力通常需要多轮收储消化，9 月合约仍升水仓单成本，产业交货意愿提升，收升 水行情延续；仔猪采购情绪下降，价格跌幅加速，对应 3 月出栏成本下降，关注远端中枢下移驱动，注意 止盈止损。短期 LH2509 合约支撑位 13000 元/吨，压力位 14000 元/吨。 资料来源：国泰君安期货 趋势强度：0 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表示最看空，2 表示最看多。 【市场逻辑】 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 生猪：收储利多落地，等待现货印证 | 吴昊 | | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | | wuhao8@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | | | 生猪基本面数据 | | | | | | | | | | 单 位 | 价 | 格 | 比 同 | | | 价 格 | 河南现货 | 元/吨 | | 13780 | 0 | | | | 四川现货 | ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report date: August 20, 2025 [1] - Main topic: Pig market analysis, waiting for the end - of - month spot verification [1] Group 2: Analysts - Zhou Xiaoqiu, investment consulting qualification number: Z0001891, email: zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com [2] - Wu Hao, investment consulting qualification number: Z0018592, email: wuhao8@gtht.com [2] Group 3: Pig Fundamental Data Spot prices - Henan spot price: 13,880 yuan/ton, year - on - year increase of 100 yuan/ton [3] - Sichuan spot price: 13,550 yuan/ton, year - on - year unchanged [3] - Guangdong spot price: 14,990 yuan/ton, year - on - year unchanged [3] Futures prices - Pig 2509: 13,780 yuan/ton, year - on - year increase of 140 yuan/ton [3] - Pig 2511: 13,900 yuan/ton, year - on - year increase of 80 yuan/ton [3] - Pig 2601: 14,200 yuan/ton, year - on - year increase of 40 yuan/ton [3] Trading volume and open interest - Pig 2509: trading volume 3,384 lots, down 4,450 lots from the previous day; open interest 13,091 lots, down 1,000 lots from the previous day [3] - Pig 2511: trading volume 20,770 lots, down 14,938 lots from the previous day; open interest 67,934 lots, down 3,259 lots from the previous day [3] - Pig 2601: trading volume 7,300 lots, down 5,823 lots from the previous day; open interest 47,359 lots, down 424 lots from the previous day [3] Price spreads - Pig 2509 basis: 100 yuan/ton, year - on - year decrease of 40 yuan/ton [3] - Pig 2511 basis: - 20 yuan/ton, year - on - year increase of 20 yuan/ton [3] - Pig 2601 basis: - 320 yuan/ton, year - on - year increase of 60 yuan/ton [3] - Pig 9 - 11 spread: - 120 yuan/ton, year - on - year increase of 60 yuan/ton [3] - Pig 11 - 1 spread: - 300 yuan/ton, year - on - year increase of 40 yuan/ton [3] Group 4: Trend Intensity - Trend intensity: - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view. The range of trend intensity is [- 2,2], with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4] Group 5: Market Logic - In August, the planned slaughter volume of large - scale pig farms increased, small - scale farmers had passive pressure on inventory, demand growth was limited, and market pressure was high. Recent daily transactions were poor, and it was difficult to absorb market supply. Weekend spot performance was again below expectations, and there was a sentiment of panic selling [5] - The September contract was still at a premium to the warehouse - receipt cost, which increased the industry's willingness to deliver, and the premium - narrowing market continued [5] - The sentiment of purchasing piglets declined, and the price decline accelerated, corresponding to a decrease in the cost of slaughter in March. Attention should be paid to the risk of a downward shift in the far - end price center, and profit - taking and stop - loss should be noted [5] - The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract was 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level was 14,500 yuan/ton [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - In August, the planned出栏 volume of group farms increases, while retail farmers are forced to hold back livestock. The demand growth is limited, leading to significant market pressure. Recent daily transactions are poor, and it's difficult to absorb market supply. The weekend spot performance is again below expectations. The September contract still has a premium over the warehouse - receipt cost, increasing the industry's willingness to deliver. Attention should be paid to the premium - narrowing market. The purchasing sentiment for piglets has declined, and the price decline has accelerated, corresponding to a decrease in the March出栏 cost. Attention should be paid to the risk of the far - end price center moving down. Stop - loss and take - profit should be noted. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,500 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: The Henan spot price is 13,880 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the Sichuan spot price is 13,550 yuan/ton, with no year - on - year change; the Guangdong spot price is 14,990 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 200 yuan/ton [3]. - **Futures Prices**: The price of the Pig 2509 contract is 13,825 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 45 yuan/ton; the Pig 2511 contract is 13,945 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 45 yuan/ton; the Pig 2601 contract is 14,225 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 95 yuan/ton [3]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: For the Pig 2509 contract, the trading volume is 3,591 lots, a decrease of 2,181 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 15,721 lots, a decrease of 888 lots from the previous day; for the Pig 2511 contract, the trading volume is 20,445 lots, a decrease of 13,974 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 64,842 lots, an increase of 132 lots from the previous day; for the Pig 2601 contract, the trading volume is 9,908 lots, a decrease of 5,839 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 46,745 lots, an increase of 532 lots from the previous day [3]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis of the Pig 2509 contract is 55 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 5 yuan/ton; the basis of the Pig 2511 contract is - 65 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 95 yuan/ton; the basis of the Pig 2601 contract is - 345 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 145 yuan/ton; the 9 - 11 spread of pigs is - 120 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 90 yuan/ton; the 11 - 1 spread of pigs is - 280 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 50 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is - 1, with the range of trend intensity values being integers in the [-2, 2] interval. The strength levels are classified as weak, relatively weak, neutral, relatively strong, and strong. - 2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view [4].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in prices across various sectors, including precious metals, pork, and chemical industries, has become a market hotspot, leading to significant stock performance in these areas [1][6]. Group 1: Price Surge in Precious Metals and Pork - Precious metals and pork stocks have led the price surge, with companies like Zhongrun Resources, Tianbang Foods, Aonong Biological, and Shennong Group hitting the daily limit up [1]. - The metal sector has seen a month-to-date increase of nearly 11.2%, with precious metals, industrial metals, and minor metals rising by 16.9%, 14.4%, and 12.9% respectively [2][4]. - The price of live pigs has also increased significantly, with futures rising by approximately 5.6% this month, and the current price of external three yuan pigs exceeding 15 yuan per kilogram [6][10]. Group 2: Performance of ETFs and Sector Indices - Gold-related ETFs have performed exceptionally well this month, with two funds recording increases of nearly 17.2% and 17.0% [4][5]. - The performance of the metal sector has outpaced previously popular sectors like cloud computing and telecommunications [4]. - The increase in metal stocks has also positively impacted related ETFs, which have shown strong performance in the market [4]. Group 3: Broader Market Trends and Price Dynamics - The price surge logic is a common theme in the A-share market, often leading to significant stock performance in various sectors, including alcohol, traditional Chinese medicine, and electronics [8][10]. - Historical trends indicate that price increases are often driven by supply-demand dynamics rather than raw material price hikes, with larger market cap leaders typically favored [10]. - The current market environment is seeing a broadening of price surge categories, with ongoing attention to how to select the best stocks within these themes [8].

1 周度分析与展望 目 录 2 关键数据与图表 CONTENTS 周度分析与展望 研究所 现货旺季不旺 盘面继续挤升水 ——国信期货生猪周报 2025年08月17日 研究所 研究所 过去一周生猪现货震荡弱反弹，受养殖端扛价及消费季节性支撑，期货终结前一周的反弹而下跌，其中LH11、LH01表现更弱 。基差略有走强，但西南地区现货对LH09仍贴水达400元/吨左右。基本面来看，根据不同机构统计的样本企业仔猪出生数据 ，后期理论出栏量仍将维持增加的格局，育肥猪料销量环比增速与23、24年同期接近，参考这两年的供应季节性走势，后期 供应压力仍较大。需求来看，二育继续低迷，消费后期季节性走强。综合来看，后期供需双增，但结合过去几年情况来看，旺 季对价格提振不明显，而目前期货升水现货，后期向现货靠拢可能性更多。操作上，震荡偏空思路。 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议 3 1.生猪期货行情 研究所 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议 数据来源:WIND, 国信期货 4 2.生猪现货行情 研究所 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议 数据来源:WIND,涌益咨询, ...

Group 1: General Information - Report date: August 14, 2025 [2] - Report type: Pig Daily Report [1] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Futures: On the 13th, the main 2511 contract of live pigs opened slightly lower and oscillated downward, closing in the red at the end of the session. The highest was 14,240 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,975 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14,045 yuan/ton, down 1.33% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 5,156 lots to 180,560 lots [8] - Spot: On the 13th, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 13.75 yuan/kg, up 0.06 yuan/kg from the previous day [8] Market Analysis - Demand side: The utilization rate of pigsty is at a high level. Currently, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening is average, mainly in a wait-and-see state. The terminal demand is weak due to the hot weather, and the orders of slaughtering enterprises are average. The current slaughter progress is fast, and the开工 rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises have increased slightly. On August 13th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 139,000 heads, an increase of 700 heads from the previous day and an increase of 3,500 heads from a week ago [9] - Supply side: According to Yongyi sample data, the planned slaughter volume of sample enterprises in August is 24.72 million heads, a month-on-month increase of 6.6% compared with the actual slaughter volume in July. The slaughter volume is expected to increase significantly. At the beginning of the month, the enthusiasm of farmers for slaughtering is high, and the slaughter progress is fast. The utilization rate of secondary fattening pigsty remains high, and there are still secondary fattening pigs to be released. The slaughter pressure still exists, and the slaughter weight fluctuates slightly [9] Outlook - Spot: In August, the slaughter of farmers increases, and the current enthusiasm for slaughtering is acceptable. At the same time, the demand is in the off-season, and the supply and demand remain relatively loose. The spot price of live pigs may continue to be under pressure [9] - Futures: Currently, the near-month 2509 contract of futures mainly follows the spot and oscillates weakly. In the medium and long term, the supply of live pigs will increase slightly. The 2511 and 2601 contracts belong to the peak demand contracts, and the demand increase is relatively large. The price performance may oscillate strongly. The domestic anti-involution initiative, high-quality development of the pig industry, and increasing environmental protection efforts in some regions are beneficial to the medium and long-term performance of pig prices. Pay attention to the impact of subsequent policies on production capacity [9] Group 3: Industry News - No specific industry news content is provided in the text Group 4: Data Overview - Self-breeding and self-raising profit per head: As of August 7th, the profit per head of self-breeding and self-raising was 119 yuan/head, a week-on-week decrease of 10 yuan/head [14] - Profit per head of purchasing piglets for fattening: As of August 7th, the profit per head of purchasing piglets for fattening was -54 yuan/head, a week-on-week increase of 28 yuan/head [14] - Average sales price of 15kg piglets: In the week of August 7th, the average sales price of 15kg piglets in the market was 516 yuan/head, a decrease of 10 yuan/head from the previous week [14] - Inventory of reproductive sows: As of July this year, the inventory of reproductive sows in sample farms was 1.15 million heads, a month-on-month increase of 0.52% and a year-on-year increase of 6.71% [14] - Planned slaughter volume: The planned slaughter volume of sample enterprises in August is 24.72 million heads, a month-on-month increase of 6.6% compared with the actual slaughter volume in July [14] - Average slaughter weight: As of the week of August 7th, the average slaughter weight of live pigs nationwide was 127.8 kg, a decrease of 0.18 kg from the previous week, a month-on-month decrease of 0.14%, and an increase of 1.6 kg compared with the same period last year, a year-on-year increase of 1.27% [14]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report maintains a reverse spread strategy for the hog market [1] 2. Core View - In August, the planned slaughter volume of group farms increases, while retail farmers passively hold back hogs. With limited demand growth, the market faces significant pressure. The daily trading volume is poor, making it difficult to absorb market supply. As the September contract enters the pre - delivery month and the second position limit on the tenth trading day, the futures price is still at a large premium to the warehouse receipt cost, increasing the industry's willingness to deliver. Attention should be paid to the market of premium convergence. Recently, the macro sentiment strongly supports the far - end contracts, presenting a situation of weak current reality and strong future expectations. The spread structure maintains a reverse spread, and stop - loss and take - profit should be noted. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,500 yuan/ton [4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: Henan's spot price is 13,880 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton; Sichuan's is 13,300 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; and Guangdong's is 15,290 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - **Futures Prices**: The prices of contracts LH2509, LH2511, and LH2601 are 13,930 yuan/ton, 14,180 yuan/ton, and 14,415 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year increases of 60 yuan/ton, 80 yuan/ton, and 20 yuan/ton [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of contracts LH2509, LH2511, and LH2601 are 8,931 lots, 34,996 lots, and 12,459 lots respectively, with changes of - 1,234 lots, + 287 lots, and + 830 lots compared to the previous day. The open interests are 26,443 lots, 60,194 lots, and 44,010 lots respectively, with changes of - 2,287 lots, + 596 lots, and + 853 lots compared to the previous day [2] - **Spreads**: The basis of contracts LH2509, LH2511, and LH2601 are - 50 yuan/ton, - 300 yuan/ton, and - 535 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year changes of - 160 yuan/ton, - 180 yuan/ton, and - 120 yuan/ton. The spreads between LH2509 and LH2511, and between LH2511 and LH2601 are - 250 yuan/ton and - 235 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year changes of - 20 yuan/ton and + 60 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view on the market. The range of trend intensity is from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3] 3.3 Market Logic - In August, the market is under pressure due to increased supply and limited demand. The September contract's entry into the pre - delivery month and the large premium to the warehouse receipt cost increase the industry's delivery willingness. The macro sentiment supports far - end contracts, resulting in a reverse spread structure [4]

Report Information - Report Title: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: August 8, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View - In August, the supply of pigs from the breeding side is increasing, and the current enthusiasm for slaughter is fair. Meanwhile, the demand is in the off - season. The supply - demand relationship remains relatively loose, and the spot price of pigs may continue to be under pressure. In the futures market, the near - term 2509 contract is following the decline of the spot price. In the medium - to - long - term for the far - month contracts, the pig supply will increase slightly. The 2511 and 2601 contracts are in the peak demand season, with a relatively large increase in demand, and their price performance may be oscillating upwards. Policies and other factors are favorable for the medium - to - long - term pig price performance, and the impact of later policies on production capacity needs attention [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 7th, the main 2511 contract of live pigs opened slightly lower, then bottomed out, rebounded, and fluctuated higher, closing with a positive line. The highest was 14,170 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,920 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14,100 yuan/ton, up 0.82% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 1,023 lots to 176,215 lots [7] - **Spot Market**: On the 7th, the average price of三元hogs nationwide was 13.74 yuan/kg, down 0.15 yuan/kg from the previous day [7] - **Demand Side**: The utilization rate of pig pens is at a high level. Currently, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening is average, mainly in a wait - and - see state. Due to the hot weather, the terminal demand is weak, and the orders of slaughtering enterprises are average. The current slaughter progress is fast, and the operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises have increased slightly. On August 7th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 139,300 heads, an increase of 3,700 heads from the previous day and 2,300 heads from a week ago [8] - **Supply Side**: In August, the slaughter volume of the breeding side may increase month - on - month. At the beginning of the month, the breeding side has a high enthusiasm for slaughter, and the slaughter progress is fast. The utilization rate of secondary fattening pig pens remains high, and there are still secondary - fattened pigs to be released. The slaughter pressure still exists, and the slaughter weight fluctuates slightly [8] 2. Industry News - As of July 31st, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was 129 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 33 yuan/head; the average profit per pig purchased as a piglet was - 82 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 19 yuan/head [9][11] 3. Data Overview - The average sales price of 15 - kg piglets in the market in the week of July 31st was 527 yuan/head, a decrease of 15 yuan/head from the previous week [17] - The average daily slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises in the week of July 31st was 136,803 heads, a week - on - week increase of 1.99% [17] - As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, the national pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 2.2% and a month - on - month increase of 7.16 million heads or 1.72%. From the second quarter of last year to the second quarter of this year, the month - on - month changes were 1.7%, 2.8%, 0.11%, - 2.37%, and 1.72% respectively [17] - As of the week of July 31st, the average slaughter weight of national pigs was 127.98 kg, a decrease of 0.5 kg from the previous week and a month - on - month decrease of 0.39% [17]

2025 年 8 月 7 日 生猪：近端现货压力持续 | 周小球 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | wuhao8@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 生猪基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 同 比 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 价 格 | 河南现货 | 元/吨 | 14080 | | -100 | | | | 四川现货 | 元/吨 | 13450 | | -50 | | | | 广东现货 | 元/吨 | 15540 | | 0 | | | 期 货 | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 同 比 | | | | 生猪2509 | 元/吨 | 13810 | | -75 | | | | 生猪2511 | 元/吨 | 14010 | | 130 | | | | 生猪2601 | 元/吨 | 14310 | | 140 | | | | | 单 位 | 成交量 | 较前 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core View - The market expected price increases from late July to early August, but the group's volume reduction and price increase fell short of expectations. Retailers and second - fattening groups are panicked. The planned slaughter volume of groups in August is increasing, while demand growth is limited, leading to significant market pressure. The September contract is approaching the delivery month, with the futures price still at a large premium to the warehouse - receipt cost, increasing the industry's willingness to deliver. It is expected to operate weakly. Recently, the macro sentiment strongly supports the far - end contracts, creating a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, and the spread structure has switched to backwardation. Attention should be paid to stop - loss and take - profit. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the resistance level is 15,000 yuan/ton [4] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Price Data**: Henan's spot price is 14,180 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 50; Sichuan's is 13,500 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 100; Guangdong's is 15,540 yuan/ton with no year - on - year change. For futures, the prices of contracts 2509, 2511, and 2601 are 13,885 yuan/ton (down 55 year - on - year), 13,880 yuan/ton (down 25 year - on - year), and 14,170 yuan/ton (down 15 year - on - year) respectively [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of contracts 2509, 2511, and 2601 are 13,732 hands (down 9,396 from the previous day), 16,849 hands (down 1,854 from the previous day), and 6,879 hands (down 4,350 from the previous day) respectively. The open interests are 35,710 hands (down 2,540 from the previous day), 55,042 hands (up 2,723 from the previous day), and 40,487 hands (down 21 from the previous day) respectively [2] - **Spread Data**: The basis of contracts 2509, 2511, and 2601 are 295 yuan/ton (up 105 year - on - year), 300 yuan/ton (up 75 year - on - year), and 10 yuan/ton (up 65 year - on - year) respectively. The spreads between contracts 9 - 11 and 11 - 1 are 5 yuan/ton (down 30 year - on - year) and - 290 yuan/ton (down 10 year - on - year) respectively [2] 2. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is - 1, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [- 2,2] interval. - 2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view [3] 3. Market Logic - The market expected price increases from late July to early August, but the group's volume reduction and price increase fell short of expectations. Retailers and second - fattening groups are panicked. The planned slaughter volume of groups in August is increasing, while demand growth is limited, leading to significant market pressure. The September contract is approaching the delivery month, with the futures price still at a large premium to the warehouse - receipt cost, increasing the industry's willingness to deliver. It is expected to operate weakly. Recently, the macro sentiment strongly supports the far - end contracts, creating a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, and the spread structure has switched to backwardation. Attention should be paid to stop - loss and take - profit. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the resistance level is 15,000 yuan/ton [4]