2025 年 10 月 10 日 生猪基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 比 同 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 价 格 | 河南现货 | 元/吨 | 11330 | | -1100 | | | | 四川现货 | 元/吨 | 11250 | | -650 | | | | 广东现货 | 元/吨 | 12060 | | -650 | | | 期 货 | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 同 比 | | | | 生猪2511 | 元/吨 | 11595 | | -700 | | | | 生猪2601 | 元/吨 | 12165 | | -620 | | | | 生猪2603 | 元/吨 | 11970 | | -480 | | | | | 单 位 | 成交量 | 较前日 | 持仓量 | 较昨日 | | | 生猪2511 | 手 | 50927 | -7793 | 58336 | -17117 | | | 生猪2601 | 手 | 40716 | 3662 | 84790 | 8369 | | | 生猪2603 | 手 | 16259 ...

2025 年 10 月 9 日 生猪：假期现货跌幅加大，收基差行情 | 周小球 | | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | | | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | | | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | | wuhao8@gtht.com | | | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | | | | | 生猪基本面数据 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 单 位 | 价 | 格 | | 同 比 | | | 价 格 | 河南现货 | | 元/吨 | 12480 | | | 50 | | | | 四川现货 | | 元/吨 | 11900 | | | 0 | | | | 广东现货 | | 元/吨 | 12660 | | | -50 | | | | | | 单 位 | 价 | 格 | | 比 同 | | | | 生猪2511 | | 元/吨 | 12355 | | | 60 | | | | 生猪2601 | | 元/吨 | 1 ...

近日生猪期货持续回落，9月30日生猪期货主力2511合约延续跌势，盘中一度下探至12225元/吨，最终报收于12355元/吨。尽管国庆期间或有短暂偏强机 会，但10月生猪出栏仍处高位，节后需求回落，期价仍存下行风险。业内人士表示，接下来需重点关注出栏节奏与屠宰开工率变化。 "近期生猪价格持续下跌主要原因在于供应压力仍然较大，前期生猪产能整体处于高位，近期开始表现出比较明显的出栏压力。此外，需求端支撑也比较 有限。从现在持仓情况看，空头表现出比较明显的增仓迹象。"银河期货分析师陈界正接受《华夏时报》记者采访时表示。 华夏时报记者叶青北京报道 三季度期现价格同步走弱 "近期生猪期货价格持续下行，主要原因仍集中在供应端。2025年8月末，能繁母猪存栏4038万头，环比下降0.1%，同比持平0.0%，相当于正常保有量的 103.5%，产能正常，处于绿色区域。"光大期货农产品分析师孔海兰接受《华夏时报》记者采访时表示。 孔海兰表示，自2024年12月起能繁母猪存栏环比下降，总体降幅较小，2025年5月再度小幅增加，6月初相关部门出台一系列调控措施，包括暂停能繁母猪 扩产、调控二次育肥等。然而，5、6、7月能繁母猪存栏基 ...

2025 年 9 月 30 日 生猪：现货底部未现 | 周小球 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | wuhao8@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 生猪基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 同 比 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 河南现货 | 元/吨 | 12430 | | -150 | | | 价 格 | | | | | | | | | 四川现货 | 元/吨 | 11900 | | -200 | | | | 广东现货 | 元/吨 | 12710 | | -200 | | | 期 货 | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 同 比 | | | | 生猪2511 | 元/吨 | 12295 | | -280 | | | | 生猪2601 | 元/吨 | 12785 | | -315 | | | | 生猪2603 | 元/吨 | 12450 | | -205 | ...

Report Information - Report Date: September 29, 2025 [1] - Authors: Zhou Xiaoqiu, Wu Hao [1] - Investment Advisory Qualification Numbers: Z0001891 (Zhou Xiaoqiu), Z0018592 (Wu Hao) [1] - Email Addresses: zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com (Zhou Xiaoqiu), wuhao8@gtht.com (Wu Hao) [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The bottom of the live pig spot market has not been reached, and short positions should be held [1] Summary of Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: Henan's spot price is 12,580 yuan/ton, Sichuan's is 12,150 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan/ton year-on-year), and Guangdong's is 13,110 yuan/ton [2] - **Futures Prices**: The prices of live pig futures contracts 2511, 2601, and 2603 are 12,575 yuan/ton (down 110 yuan/ton year-on-year), 13,100 yuan/ton (down 210 yuan/ton year-on-year), and 12,655 yuan/ton (down 90 yuan/ton year-on-year) respectively [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of contracts 2511, 2601, and 2603 are 38,742 lots (up 7,824 lots from the previous day), 26,927 lots (up 13,770 lots), and 7,332 lots (up 1,890 lots) respectively; the open interests are 85,019 lots (down 4,519 lots from the previous day), 71,622 lots (up 5,120 lots), and 50,862 lots (up 2,386 lots) respectively [2] - **Price Spreads**: The basis of contracts 2511, 2601, and 2603 are 5 yuan/ton (up 110 yuan/ton year-on-year), -520 yuan/ton (up 210 yuan/ton year-on-year), and -75 yuan/ton (up 90 yuan/ton year-on-year) respectively; the spreads between contracts 11 - 1 and 1 - 3 are -525 yuan/ton (up 100 yuan/ton year-on-year) and 445 yuan/ton (down 120 yuan/ton year-on-year) respectively [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is -1, indicating a bearish view. The range of trend intensity is an integer within [-2, 2], with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [3]

2025 年 9 月 26 日 生猪：现货旺季不旺，维持做空思路 | 周小球 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | wuhao8@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 生猪基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 比 同 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 价 格 | 河南现货 | 元/吨 | 12580 | | -100 | | | | 四川现货 | 元/吨 | 12250 | | -100 | | | | 广东现货 | 元/吨 | 13110 | | -250 | | | 期 货 | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 同 比 | | | | 生猪2511 | 元/吨 | 12685 | | -45 | | | | 生猪2601 | 元/吨 | 13310 | | -35 | | | | 生猪2603 | 元/吨 | 12745 | | -10 | | | | | 单 位 ...

| | 合 约 | 收盘价 | 日涨跌 （%） | 成交变动 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | 鸡蛋2510 | 2,957 | -0.17 | -12,594 | -6,401 | | | 鸡蛋2601 | 3,354 | -0.36 | -7,297 | 2,124 | | | | | 最新日 | | 前一日 | | 价 差 | 鸡蛋10-12价差 | | -222 | | -242 | | | 鸡蛋10-1价差 | | -397 | | -413 | | | | | 最新日 | | 前一日 | | | 辽宁现货价格 | | 3.50 | | 3.50 | | | 河北现货价格 | | 3.38 | | 3.38 | | 产业链数据 | 山西现货价格 | | 3.45 | | 3.45 | | | 湖北现货价格 | | 3.96 | | 3.96 | | | | | 最新日 | | 前一日 | | | 玉米现货价格 | | 2,300 | | 2,317 | | | 豆粕现货价格 | | 2,900 | | 2,920 | | | ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. 2) Core View of the Report The report indicates that the pig market is in a high-premium situation. Group companies have significantly reduced their supply, but the average weight of pigs has increased again, and the price difference between fat and lean pigs has weakened, indicating a serious passive inventory accumulation. The overall supply in September has increased significantly, and there is a resonance between the production capacity cycle and the inventory cycle from September to October. The probability of concentrated release of spot pressure before the double festivals has increased, and the spot price center will further decline. The near - month contracts are facing a situation of high production capacity, high inventory, and high premium, and the weakness is difficult to reverse. The purchasing sentiment for piglets has declined, and the price decline has accelerated, corresponding to a decrease in the cost of pigs to be slaughtered from March to May. Attention should be paid to the downward - driving force of the price center in March and May. The July contract is supported by policy regulation, and the spread structure maintains a reverse spread. Traders should pay attention to stop - profit and stop - loss. The short - term support level for the LH2511 contract is 12,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 13,000 yuan/ton [3]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - **Price**: The Henan spot price is 12,680 yuan/ton, the Sichuan spot price is 12,350 yuan/ton, and the Guangdong spot price is 13,360 yuan/ton. The prices of the futures contracts "pig2511", "pig2601", and "pig2603" are 12,730 yuan/ton, 13,345 yuan/ton, and 12,755 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of "pig2511", "pig2601", and "pig2603" are 39,050 lots, 19,377 lots, and 8,294 lots respectively, with changes of - 5,610 lots, - 3,173 lots, and + 475 lots compared to the previous day. The open interests are 90,819 lots, 66,711 lots, and 47,802 lots respectively, with changes of - 2,695 lots, - 144 lots, and + 443 lots compared to the previous day [1]. - **Spread**: The basis of "pig2511", "pig2601", and "pig2603" are - 50 yuan/ton, - 665 yuan/ton, and - 75 yuan/ton respectively. The spread between "pig11 - 1" is - 615 yuan/ton, and the spread between "pig1 - 3" is 590 yuan/ton [1]. [Trend Intensity] The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a bearish view. The range of trend intensity is an integer within the [- 2,2] interval, where - 2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [2]. [Market Logic] Group companies have significantly reduced their supply, but the average weight of pigs has increased again, and the price difference between fat and lean pigs has weakened, indicating a serious passive inventory accumulation. The overall supply in September has increased significantly, and there is a resonance between the production capacity cycle and the inventory cycle from September to October. The probability of concentrated release of spot pressure before the double festivals has increased, and the spot price center will further decline. The near - month contracts are facing a situation of high production capacity, high inventory, and high premium, and the weakness is difficult to reverse. The purchasing sentiment for piglets has declined, and the price decline has accelerated, corresponding to a decrease in the cost of pigs to be slaughtered from March to May. Attention should be paid to the downward - driving force of the price center in March and May. The July contract is supported by policy regulation, and the spread structure maintains a reverse spread. Traders should pay attention to stop - profit and stop - loss. The short - term support level for the LH2511 contract is 12,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 13,000 yuan/ton [3].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: "2025/9/22 Live Pig Daily Report" [2] - Researcher: Chen Jiezheng [3] - Contact Information: chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.com.cn [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - The supply pressure of live pigs continues to increase, and the spot price is expected to remain weak. The futures price also faces downward pressure and is likely to decline [4][6]. Group 4: Market Data Summary Spot Price - Today's average spot price of live pigs is 12.43 yuan/kg, down 0.15 yuan/kg from yesterday. Most regions' prices are showing a downward trend [4]. Futures Price - All futures contracts show price declines. For example, LH01 dropped by 5 to 13345, and LH09 dropped by 385 to 12600 [4]. Sow/Piglet Price - This week, the piglet price is 258 yuan, down 1 yuan from last week, and the sow price is 1588 yuan, down 2 yuan from last week [4]. Spot Breeding Profit - The self - breeding and self - raising profit is - 24.44 yuan/head, down 41.29 yuan/head from yesterday; the profit from purchasing piglets is - 199.31 yuan/head, down 37.38 yuan/head from yesterday [4]. Slaughter Volume - Today's slaughter volume is 153248 heads, down 362 heads from yesterday [4]. Pig Price Spread - The spread between standard pigs and medium - sized pigs remains unchanged at 0.34; the spread between large pigs and standard pigs also remains unchanged at 0.24 [4]. Group 5: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Short on the near - term contracts when prices rise [7]. - Arbitrage: Conduct LH15 reverse arbitrage [7]. - Options: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The end - of - month and beginning - of - month significant reduction in supply by large - scale pig farms led to a rebound in spot prices as expected. However, the average weight of pigs is increasing again, the price difference between fat and standard pigs is weakening, and the overall supply increase in September is large. From September to October, the production capacity cycle and inventory cycle resonate, and market pressure is gradually emerging. It is expected that the spot price center will further decline, and the national average price will hit new lows. The enthusiasm for purchasing piglets has declined, and the price decline has accelerated, corresponding to a decrease in the cost of pigs to be slaughtered in March - May. Attention should be paid to the driving force of the downward shift of the price center in March and May. There is an expectation of further policy regulation for the July contract, which is mainly strong in the short - term. Stop - loss and take - profit should be noted. The short - term support level for the LH2511 contract is 12,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 13,500 yuan/ton [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: The spot price in Henan is 13,230 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton year - on - year; in Sichuan, it is 12,950 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton year - on - year; in Guangdong, it is 14,160 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan/ton year - on - year [2] - **Futures Prices**: The price of the Live Pig 2511 contract is 13,275 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton year - on - year; the Live Pig 2601 contract is 13,745 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton year - on - year; the Live Pig 2603 contract is 13,045 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton year - on - year [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Live Pig 2511 contract is 38,413 lots, an increase of 8,046 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 81,062 lots, an increase of 2,009 lots from the previous day; the Live Pig 2601 contract has a trading volume of 14,187 lots, an increase of 1,557 lots, and an open interest of 54,865 lots, an increase of 765 lots; the Live Pig 2603 contract has a trading volume of 3,991 lots, a decrease of 516 lots, and an open interest of 38,157 lots, an increase of 915 lots [2] - **Price Spreads**: The basis of the Live Pig 2511 contract is - 45 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton year - on - year; the basis of the Live Pig 2601 contract is - 515 yuan/ton, down 155 yuan/ton year - on - year; the basis of the Live Pig 2603 contract is 185 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan/ton year - on - year; the spread between the 11th and 1st contracts is - 470 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton year - on - year; the spread between the 1st and 3rd contracts is 700 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton year - on - year [2] 2. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is - 1, with the range of values being integers in the [- 2,2] interval. The strength levels are classified as weak, relatively weak, neutral, relatively strong, and strong. - 2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view [3] 3. Market Logic - As described in the core view, including factors such as supply changes, price trends, and policy expectations [4]