| 周小球 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | wuhao8@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 生猪基本面数据 2025 年 11 月 26 日 商 品 研 究 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 | 生猪：去库节点已至 | | --- | | | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 同 | 比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 价 格 | 河南现货 | 元/吨 | 11480 | | -100 | | | | 四川现货 | 元/吨 | 11600 | | 0 | | | | 广东现货 | 元/吨 | 12160 | | 0 | | | 期 货 | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 同 | 比 | | | 生猪2601 | 元/吨 | 11415 | | 15 | | | | 生猪2603 | 元/吨 | 11295 | | 0 | | | | 生猪2605 | 元/吨 | 11995 | ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 生猪期货早报 2025-11-20 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸生猪观点和策略 生猪： 1. 基本面：供应方面，国内进入中秋国庆双节后供需淡季，国内大型养殖场出栏开始减少支撑生猪短 期价格，预计本周供给猪、肉双减。需求方面，国内宏观环境预期有所回升，长假结束后至居民整 体消费意愿减弱，压制短期鲜猪肉消费。综合来看，预计本周市场或供需双减、猪价短期震荡回落 中期或维持区间震荡格局。关注月中集团场出栏节奏变化、二次育肥市场动态变化情况。中性。 2. 基差：现货全国均价11540元/吨，2601合约基差20元/吨，现货贴水期货。中性。 3. 库存：截至6月30日，生猪存栏量42 ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 11 月 18 日 鸡蛋：近弱远强，反套格局 吴昊 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 wuhao8@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 鸡蛋基本面数据 | | 合 约 | 收盘价 | 日涨跌 （%） | 成交变动 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | 鸡蛋2512 | 2,987 | -1.84 | -41,269 | -14,044 | | | 鸡蛋2601 | 3,499 | -0.68 | 18,793 | 10,793 | | | | | 最新日 | 前一日 | | | 价 差 | 鸡蛋12-1价差 | | -242 | -202 | | | | 鸡蛋12-5价差 | | -512 | -444 | | | | | | 最新日 | 前一日 | | | | 辽宁现货价格 | | 3.00 | 3.00 | | | | 河北现货价格 | | 2.69 | 2.71 | | | 产业链数据 | 山西现货价格 | | 3.00 | 3.00 | | | | 湖北现货价格 | | 3.11 | 3.18 | ...

2025 年 11 月 17 日 生猪：肥标价差走弱，降温涨价预期落空 | 周小球 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | | wuhao8@gtht.com | | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | | 生猪基本面数据 | | | | | | | 价 格 | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 同 比 | | | 河南现货 | 元/吨 | 11980 | | 50 | | | 四川现货 | 元/吨 | 11400 | | -50 | | | 广东现货 | 元/吨 | 12360 | | -200 | | | 四川现货 | 元/吨 | 11400 | | -50 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 广东现货 | 元/吨 | 12360 | | -200 | | | 期 货 | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 比 同 | | | | 生猪26 ...

Report Information - Report Name: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: November 14, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The spot market is expected to be stable with a slight increase in demand, but the support for prices is weak due to the wait - and - see attitude of secondary fattening, so it will mainly fluctuate. The futures market, especially the 2601 contract, is likely to be under dual supply pressure before the Spring Festival, with a medium - to - long - term weakening trend [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 13th, the main 2601 contract of live pigs opened slightly lower, then bottomed out and rebounded, closing up. The highest price was 11,865 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,690 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,860 yuan/ton, up 0.64% from the previous day. The total index positions decreased by 31 to 359,899 lots [6]. - **Spot Market**: On the 13th, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 11.65 yuan/kg, down 0.1 yuan/kg from the previous day [6]. - **Supply - side Analysis**: In the long run, pig slaughter is expected to increase slightly until the first half of next year. In October, the concentrated secondary fattening and holding back of pigs increased the supply pressure before the Spring Festival. In the short term, according to Yongyi sample data, the planned sales volume in November was 26.66 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 3.27% compared to the actual sales volume in October, with the daily average remaining the same. Currently, farmers are mainly selling pigs at a normal pace [7]. - **Demand - side Analysis**: With the rebound of spot prices and the high utilization rate of pigsties, secondary fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state. As the weather gets colder, terminal consumer demand continues to rise, but the continuous increase is insufficient. The orders of slaughtering enterprises are average, and the slaughter rate and volume have increased slightly. Mid - to - late - month pickling and enema may increase slightly. On November 13th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 162,900 heads, a decrease of 1,200 heads from the previous day, an increase of 2,300 heads week - on - week, and an increase of 3,600 heads month - on - month [7]. 2. Industry News - As of October 30th, the average profit per self - breeding and self - fattening pig was - 34.5 yuan/head, a month - on - month increase of 20 yuan/head; the profit from purchasing piglets for fattening was - 258 yuan/head, a month - on - month increase of 50 yuan/head [8][10]. 3. Data Overview - As of October 31st, the utilization rate of fattening pigsties was 55.5%, a month - on - month increase of 21.2 percentage points, and the same year - on - year [15]. - As of the end of October, the price difference between 175 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.71 yuan/jin, a month - on - month increase of 0.36 yuan/jin [15]. - As of the end of October, the cost of fattening a 110 - kg pig to 140 kg was 12.18 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.58 yuan/kg from the previous month; the cost of fattening a 125 - kg pig to 150 kg was 12.63 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.44 yuan/kg from the previous month [15]. - In October, the average slaughter weight of pigs nationwide was 128.1 kg, a decrease of 0.3 kg from September, a month - on - month decrease of 0.23%, and an increase of 2.2 kg compared to the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 1.75% [15]. - In September, the slaughter volume of large - scale designated pig slaughtering enterprises nationwide was 35.84 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 7% and a year - on - year increase of 28.5% [15].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: Pig Daily Report [1] - Report date: November 12, 2025 [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The spot market is expected to fluctuate as supply stabilizes and demand increases slightly, but the support from second - round fattening is weak. The futures market, specifically the 2601 contract, may show a long - term weakening trend due to increased supply and concentrated second - round fattening and pressure - barring in October [9]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market conditions**: On November 11, the main 2601 futures contract of live pigs opened slightly lower, fluctuated downward, and closed with a negative line. The highest was 11,995 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,750 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,755 yuan/ton, down 1.80% from the previous day. The total index positions increased by 16,981 lots to 368,545 lots. The national average price of external ternary pigs was 11.87 yuan/kg, down 0.06 yuan/kg from the previous day [8]. - **Analysis**: In the long - term, pig slaughter is expected to increase slightly until the first half of next year. The concentrated second - round fattening and pressure - barring in October increased the supply pressure before the Spring Festival. In the short - term, the planned sales volume in November decreased by 3.27% compared to the actual sales volume in October. The demand side shows that second - round fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state. Terminal consumption is rising but with insufficient incremental growth. The slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises on November 11 was 162,400 heads, an increase of 100 heads from the previous day, 4,400 heads week - on - week, and 6,600 heads month - on - month [9]. 2. Industry News - There is no specific content about industry news in the report, only the titles of some related data charts are given. 3. Data Overview - As of October 30, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was - 34.5 yuan/head, a monthly increase of 20 yuan/head; the profit per pig from purchasing piglets was - 258 yuan/head, a monthly increase of 50 yuan/head [13]. - As of October 31, the utilization rate of fattening pens was 55.5%, a monthly increase of 21.2 percentage points, the same as the previous year [13]. - As of the end of October, the price difference between 175 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.71 yuan/jin, a monthly increase of 0.36 yuan/jin [13]. - As of the end of October, the cost of fattening a 110 - kg pig to 140 kg was 12.18 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.58 yuan/kg from the previous month; the cost of fattening a 125 - kg pig to 150 kg was 12.63 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.44 yuan/kg from the previous month [13]. - The average slaughter weight of pigs in October was 128.1 kg, a decrease of 0.3 kg from September, a monthly decrease of 0.23%, and an increase of 2.2 kg compared to the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 1.75% [13]. - In September, the slaughter volume of large - scale pig slaughtering enterprises nationwide was 35.84 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 7% and a year - on - year increase of 28.5% [13].

生猪：现货矛盾继续累积，短期震荡 | 周小球 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | | | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | | wuhao8@gtht.com | | | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | | | | 生猪基本面数据 | | | | | | | | | | | 单 位 | | 价 格 | | 比 同 | | | 价 格 | 河南现货 | 元/吨 | | 12080 | | 100 | | | | 四川现货 | 元/吨 | | 11600 | | 100 | | | | 广东现货 | 元/吨 | | 12560 | | 200 | | | | | 单 位 | | 价 格 | | 同 比 | | | | 生猪2601 | 元/吨 | | 11955 | | 90 | | | | 生猪2603 | 元/吨 | | 11555 | | 90 | | | 期 货 | 生猪2605 | 元/吨 | | ...

【趋势强度】 2025 年 11 月 07 日 生猪：累库持续，等待现货矛盾释放 | 周小球 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | | wuhao8@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | 生猪基本面数据 | | | | | | | | 单 位 | 价 格 | 比 同 100 | | 价 格 | 河南现货 | 元/吨 | 11980 | | | | 四川现货 | 元/吨 | 11500 | 0 | | | 广东现货 | 元/吨 | 12460 | -100 | | | | 单 位 | 价 格 | 同 比 | | | 生猪2601 | 元/吨 | 11940 | -5 | | | 生猪2603 | 元/吨 | 11490 | 0 | 资料来源：国泰君安期货 【市场信息】 1、饲料工业协会 9 月全国饲料产量 3036 万吨，环比增长 3.4%，同比增长 5%。 趋势强度：0 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2 ...

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View - The central price of live pigs may further decline [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pig Fundamental Data - Henan spot price is 12,530 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton year-on-year; Sichuan spot price is 12,250 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton year-on-year; Guangdong spot price is 13,060 yuan/ton, unchanged year-on-year [3] - Futures prices: Live Pig 2601 is 11,815 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan/ton year-on-year; Live Pig 2603 is 11,375 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton year-on-year; Live Pig 2605 is 11,895 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton year-on-year [3] - Trading volume and open interest: Live Pig 2601 trading volume is 82,374 lots, down 30,030 lots from the previous day, and open interest is 134,889 lots, down 924 lots from the previous day; Live Pig 2603 trading volume is 20,882 lots, down 6,191 lots from the previous day, and open interest is 105,428 lots, up 1,344 lots from the previous day; Live Pig 2605 trading volume is 8,442 lots, down 5,429 lots from the previous day, and open interest is 56,238 lots, up 775 lots from the previous day [3] - Price spreads: Live Pig 2601 basis is 715 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan/ton year-on-year; Live Pig 2603 basis is 1,155 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton year-on-year; Live Pig 2605 basis is 635 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton year-on-year; Live Pig 1 - 3 spread is 440 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton year-on-year; Live Pig 3 - 5 spread is -520 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton year-on-year [3] Market Information - Trend intensity is -1, indicating a bearish view [4] Futures Research - Yuexiu and Yangxiang have added delivery warehouses [5] - The national feed output in September was 30.36 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 3.4% and a year-on-year increase of 5% [5]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report date: October 31, 2025 [1] - Report title: "Pigs: Resetting the Capacity Logic" [1] - Analysts: Zhou Xiaoqiu, Wu Hao [2] Group 2: Pig Fundamental Data Price - Henan spot price: 12,480 yuan/ton, year-on-year change of -100 [3] - Sichuan spot price: 12,350 yuan/ton, year-on-year change of 0 [3] - Guangdong spot price: 13,060 yuan/ton, year-on-year change of 200 [3] Futures Price - Live hog 2511: 11,950 yuan/ton, year-on-year change of -90 [3] - Live hog 2601: 11,880 yuan/ton, year-on-year change of -305 [3] - Live hog 2603: 11,410 yuan/ton, year-on-year change of -160 [3] Trading Volume and Open Interest - Live hog 2511: Trading volume 4,203 lots, down 1,074 from the previous day; Open interest 3,735 lots, down 2,266 from the previous day [3] - Live hog 2601: Trading volume 112,404 lots, up 43,845 from the previous day; Open interest 135,813 lots, up 16,025 from the previous day [3] - Live hog 2603: Trading volume 27,073 lots, up 7,296 from the previous day; Open interest 104,084 lots, up 6,657 from the previous day [3] Spread - Live hog 2511 basis: 530 yuan/ton, year-on-year change of -10 [3] - Live hog 2601 basis: 600 yuan/ton, year-on-year change of 205 [3] - Live hog 2603 basis: 1,070 yuan/ton, year-on-year change of 60 [3] - Live hog 11 - 1 spread: 70 yuan/ton, year-on-year change of 215 [3] - Live hog 1 - 3 spread: 470 yuan/ton, year-on-year change of -145 [3] Group 3: Market Information - Trend strength: -1, indicating a bearish view [4] Group 4: Futures Research - New delivery warehouses added by Yuexiu and Yangxiang [5] - In September, the national feed production was 30.36 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 3.4% and a year-on-year increase of 5% [5]