生猪期货(生猪2601
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生猪:去库节点来临,近端压力扩大
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-11-27 01:52
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report focuses on the hog market, indicating that the inventory reduction node has arrived, and the near - term pressure is expanding. The trend strength is - 1, suggesting a bearish view on the market [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Hog Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: The Henan spot price is 11,430 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; the Sichuan spot price is 11,550 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; the Guangdong spot price is 11,760 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan/ton [2]. - **Futures Prices**: The price of hog 2601 is 11,540 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan/ton; hog 2603 is 11,365 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton; hog 2605 is 12,060 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of hog 2601 is 92,861 lots, an increase of 40,389 lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest is 128,058 lots, a decrease of 2,774 lots. For hog 2603, the trading volume is 41,967 lots, an increase of 23,281 lots, and the open interest is 124,616 lots, an increase of 2,786 lots. For hog 2605, the trading volume is 22,335 lots, an increase of 11,915 lots, and the open interest is 69,132 lots, an increase of 1,973 lots [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis of hog 2601 is - 110 yuan/ton, down 175 yuan/ton; the basis of hog 2603 is 65 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton; the basis of hog 2605 is - 630 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan/ton. The spread between hog 1 - 3 is 175 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton; the spread between hog 3 - 5 is - 695 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton [2]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is - 1, with a range of [-2, 2]. - 2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view [3].
生猪:去库节点已至
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-11-26 01:53
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - The trend strength is -1, indicating a relatively bearish view. The -1 value falls within the range of [-2, 2], with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: The Henan spot price is 11,480 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton year - on - year; the Sichuan spot price is 11,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Guangdong spot price is 12,160 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Futures Prices**: The prices of live hog 2601, 2603, and 2605 are 11,415 yuan/ton (up 15 yuan/ton year - on - year), 11,295 yuan/ton (unchanged), and 11,995 yuan/ton (up 70 yuan/ton year - on - year) respectively [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of live hog 2601, 2603, and 2605 are 52,472 hands (-9,769 hands compared to the previous day), 18,686 hands (-6,165 hands), and 10,420 hands (-6,694 hands) respectively. The open interest of live hog 2601, 2603, and 2605 are 130,832 hands (-6,073 hands compared to the previous day), 121,830 hands (+2,467 hands), and 67,159 hands (-398 hands) respectively [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis of live hog 2601, 2603, and 2605 are 65 yuan/ton (-115 yuan/ton year - on - year), 185 yuan/ton (-100 yuan/ton year - on - year), and - 515 yuan/ton (-170 yuan/ton year - on - year) respectively. The 1 - 3 spread of live hog is 120 yuan/ton (up 15 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the 3 - 5 spread is -700 yuan/ton (-70 yuan/ton year - on - year) [2].
生猪:降温预期落地,压力逐步释放
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-11-20 01:47
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The cooling expectation for the pig market has materialized, and the pressure is gradually being released [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of pigs in Henan is 11,830 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 100; in Sichuan, it is 11,400 yuan/ton with no year - on - year change; in Guangdong, it is 12,160 yuan/ton with no year - on - year change [2]. - **Futures Prices**: The price of pig futures contract 2601 is 11,560 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 25; contract 2603 is 11,350 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 5; contract 2605 is 11,995 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 45 [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: For contract 2601, the trading volume is 55,080 lots, a decrease of 32,311 from the previous day, and the open interest is 138,334 lots, a decrease of 4,083 from the previous day; for contract 2603, the trading volume is 14,483 lots, a decrease of 6,257 from the previous day, and the open interest is 114,413 lots, a decrease of 469 from the previous day; for contract 2605, the trading volume is 12,335 lots, a decrease of 3,827 from the previous day, and the open interest is 64,576 lots, an increase of 1,060 from the previous day [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis of contract 2601 is 270 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 75; the basis of contract 2603 is 480 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 105; the basis of contract 2605 is - 165 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 145; the spread between contract 2601 and 2603 is 210 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 30; the spread between contract 2603 and 2605 is - 645 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 40 [2]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view. The range of trend intensity is from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3].
生猪:现货矛盾继续累积,短期震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-11-11 02:04
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating There is no specific investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that the contradictions in the live - hog spot market continue to accumulate, and the market will experience short - term fluctuations [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: The Henan spot price is 12,080 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 100 yuan/ton; the Sichuan spot price is 11,600 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 100 yuan/ton; the Guangdong spot price is 12,560 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 200 yuan/ton [1]. - **Futures Prices**: The prices of live - hog 2601, 2603, and 2605 are 11,955 yuan/ton, 11,555 yuan/ton, and 12,070 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year increases of 90 yuan/ton, 90 yuan/ton, and 65 yuan/ton [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of live - hog 2601 is 75,909 lots, a decrease of 642 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 130,519 lots, a decrease of 5,241 lots from the previous day; for live - hog 2603, the trading volume is 18,458 lots, an increase of 2,883 lots, and the open interest is 108,361 lots, a decrease of 797 lots; for live - hog 2605, the trading volume is 11,068 lots, an increase of 2,154 lots, and the open interest is 61,105 lots, an increase of 555 lots [1]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of live - hog 2601, 2603, and 2605 are 125 yuan/ton, 525 yuan/ton, and 10 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year increases of 10 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, and 35 yuan/ton; the 1 - 3 spread is 400 yuan/ton with no year - on - year change, and the 3 - 5 spread values are 0, - 515, 25, 400 yuan/ton [1][4]. 3.2 Market Information In September, the national feed production of the Feed Industry Association was 30.36 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3.4% and a year - on - year increase of 5% [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral market sentiment. The range of trend intensity is an integer in the [-2, 2] interval, where - 2 represents the most bearish view and 2 represents the most bullish view [3].
生猪:累库持续,等待现货矛盾释放
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-11-07 02:08
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report presents the current situation of the pig market, including prices, production, and trading data, but does not explicitly state a core view. The trend intensity is rated as neutral (0), indicating neither a strong bullish nor bearish outlook [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Prices**: The Henan spot price is 11,980 yuan/ton, Sichuan spot is 11,500 yuan/ton, and Guangdong spot is 12,460 yuan/ton. For futures, the price of live hog 2601 is 11,940 yuan/ton (down 5 yuan/ton), and live hog 2603 is 11,490 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1]. - **Market Information**: In September, the national feed output was 30.36 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3.4% and a year - on - year increase of 5% [2]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view on the market trend, with a range of [-2, 2] where -2 is most bearish and 2 is most bullish [3]. 3.3 Trading Data - **Volume and Open Interest**: For live hog 2601, the trading volume is 78,781 lots (down 57,304 lots from the previous day), and the open interest is 132,466 lots (down 3,917 lots). For live hog 2603, the trading volume is 17,336 lots (down 15,254 lots), and the open interest is 108,284 lots (up 961 lots). For live hog 2605, the trading volume is 7,930 lots (down 9,991 lots), and the open interest is 59,807 lots (up 1,210 lots) [4]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of live hog 2601 is 40 yuan/ton (up 105 yuan/ton year - on - year), live hog 2603 is 490 yuan/ton (up 100 yuan/ton year - on - year), and live hog 2605 is -45 yuan/ton (up 115 yuan/ton year - on - year). The spread between live hog 1 - 3 is 450 yuan/ton, and between live hog 3 - 5 is -535 yuan/ton [4].