Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - **Market Review (3.2 - 3.8)**: In the spot market, pig prices were weak. Henan's 20KG piglet price dropped to 29.8 yuan/kg from 30 yuan/kg last week, and the Henan live - pig price fell to 10.48 yuan/kg from 10.98 yuan/kg. The national 50KG binary sow price remained at 1559 yuan/head. The average national slaughter weight increased by 0.19% to 125.4KG. In the futures market, the LH2605 contract price of live - pig futures was weakly volatile, with a closing price of 11160 yuan/ton (down from 11485 yuan/ton last week). The basis of the main contract was - 680 yuan/ton [2]. - **Market Outlook (3.9 - 3.15)**: Spot prices are expected to remain weak. Due to the slow slaughter progress in February, supply is postponed. The passive inventory accumulation is hard to reverse, and the spot price is in the bottom - seeking stage. From the supply perspective, the supply of standard pigs will increase until April 2026. From the demand perspective, the pre - Spring Festival speculative demand was over - estimated, and the post - festival price decline led to more speculative demand, which further overdraws future demand. It is expected that the spot price will start to bottom out in mid - to late March. For the LH2605 contract, there may be short - selling opportunities after a macro - sentiment rebound, with a support level of 10000 yuan/ton and a pressure level of 12000 yuan/ton [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1.行情数据 (Market Data) - Not elaborated in the given content other than the above - mentioned price and weight data 3.2.基差与月差 (Basis and Calendar Spread) - The basis this week was - 680 yuan/ton, and the LH2605 - LH2607 calendar spread was - 1020 yuan/ton [9]. 3.3.供给 (Supply) - The average slaughter weight this week was 125.5KG (up from 125.16KG last week). In December, pork production was 579 million tons, a 2.6% month - on - month decrease, and pork imports were 5.36 million tons, a 7.23% month - on - month decrease [12]. 3.4.价格 (Price) - Not elaborated in the given content other than the above - mentioned price data 3.5.需求 (Demand) - Not elaborated in the given content other than the information about speculative demand and slaughter volume changes

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The current north-south fattening pig price spread is inverted, group piglet sales have decreased, recent fat pig selling pressure initially confirms inventory accumulation, official piglet numbers confirm inventory, expectations have weakened, demand is weak, slaughter volume cannot support selling, price drops exceed expectations, leading to passive inventory accumulation, and the positive spread structure may switch; the January contract is affected by liquidity, although it is actually a peak season contract before the Spring Festival, the increase in positions is limited, causing the far-month spread to deviate from the seasonal reasonable spread at present, waiting for the opportunity of liquidity shift, and continuously deploying the 11 - 1 reverse spread in the medium and long term, paying attention to stop-profit and stop-loss. The short-term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [5] 3. Summary Based on Related Catalogs 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: Henan spot price is 14,450 yuan/ton with a year-on-year decrease of 150 yuan/ton; Sichuan spot price is 14,150 yuan/ton with a year-on-year decrease of 100 yuan/ton; Guangdong spot price is 15,290 yuan/ton with no year-on-year change [3] - **Futures Prices**: The price of the live hog 2507 contract is 13,240 yuan/ton with a year-on-year decrease of 45 yuan/ton; the price of the 2509 contract is 13,580 yuan/ton with a year-on-year decrease of 70 yuan/ton; the price of the 2511 contract is 13,290 yuan/ton with a year-on-year decrease of 45 yuan/ton [3] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: For the live hog 2507 contract, the trading volume is 7,631 lots, an increase of 2,113 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 27,779 lots, an increase of 393 lots from the previous day; for the 2509 contract, the trading volume is 27,992 lots, an increase of 12,220 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 80,663 lots, an increase of 2,101 lots from the previous day; for the 2511 contract, the trading volume is 4,962 lots, an increase of 2,014 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 33,213 lots, an increase of 637 lots from the previous day [3] - **Spreads**: The basis of the live hog 2507 contract is 1,210 yuan/ton with a year-on-year decrease of 105 yuan/ton; the basis of the 2509 contract is 870 yuan/ton with a year-on-year decrease of 80 yuan/ton; the basis of the 2511 contract is 1,160 yuan/ton with a year-on-year decrease of 105 yuan/ton; the 7 - 9 spread is -340 yuan/ton with a year-on-year increase of 25 yuan/ton; the 9 - 11 spread is 290 yuan/ton with a year-on-year decrease of 25 yuan/ton [3] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with a range of [-2, 2] for integers, and the strength classification includes weak, relatively weak, neutral, relatively strong, and strong, where -2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [4]