Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The current north-south fattening pig price spread is inverted, group piglet sales have decreased, recent fat pig selling pressure initially confirms inventory accumulation, official piglet numbers confirm inventory, expectations have weakened, demand is weak, slaughter volume cannot support selling, price drops exceed expectations, leading to passive inventory accumulation, and the positive spread structure may switch; the January contract is affected by liquidity, although it is actually a peak season contract before the Spring Festival, the increase in positions is limited, causing the far-month spread to deviate from the seasonal reasonable spread at present, waiting for the opportunity of liquidity shift, and continuously deploying the 11 - 1 reverse spread in the medium and long term, paying attention to stop-profit and stop-loss. The short-term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [5] 3. Summary Based on Related Catalogs 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: Henan spot price is 14,450 yuan/ton with a year-on-year decrease of 150 yuan/ton; Sichuan spot price is 14,150 yuan/ton with a year-on-year decrease of 100 yuan/ton; Guangdong spot price is 15,290 yuan/ton with no year-on-year change [3] - **Futures Prices**: The price of the live hog 2507 contract is 13,240 yuan/ton with a year-on-year decrease of 45 yuan/ton; the price of the 2509 contract is 13,580 yuan/ton with a year-on-year decrease of 70 yuan/ton; the price of the 2511 contract is 13,290 yuan/ton with a year-on-year decrease of 45 yuan/ton [3] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: For the live hog 2507 contract, the trading volume is 7,631 lots, an increase of 2,113 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 27,779 lots, an increase of 393 lots from the previous day; for the 2509 contract, the trading volume is 27,992 lots, an increase of 12,220 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 80,663 lots, an increase of 2,101 lots from the previous day; for the 2511 contract, the trading volume is 4,962 lots, an increase of 2,014 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 33,213 lots, an increase of 637 lots from the previous day [3] - **Spreads**: The basis of the live hog 2507 contract is 1,210 yuan/ton with a year-on-year decrease of 105 yuan/ton; the basis of the 2509 contract is 870 yuan/ton with a year-on-year decrease of 80 yuan/ton; the basis of the 2511 contract is 1,160 yuan/ton with a year-on-year decrease of 105 yuan/ton; the 7 - 9 spread is -340 yuan/ton with a year-on-year increase of 25 yuan/ton; the 9 - 11 spread is 290 yuan/ton with a year-on-year decrease of 25 yuan/ton [3] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with a range of [-2, 2] for integers, and the strength classification includes weak, relatively weak, neutral, relatively strong, and strong, where -2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [4]

Report Overview - Report Title: "Pigs: Weakening Sentiment, Phased De-stocking" - Report Date: May 20, 2025 - Analysts: Zhou Xiaoqiu, Wu Hao 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The current situation shows an inverted price difference between northern and southern fat pigs, a decrease in group piglet sales, and initial evidence of inventory accumulation from the pressure of selling fat pigs. The official piglet numbers confirm the inventory, leading to weakened expectations. There is a possibility of phased weight reduction due to trade circulation issues, and the positive spread structure may switch. The January contract is affected by liquidity, and although it is a peak - season contract before the Spring Festival, the increase in positions is limited, causing the far - month spread to deviate from the seasonal reasonable spread. It is recommended to wait for the opportunity of liquidity shift and continuously layout the 11 - 1 reverse spread in the medium - to - long term, while paying attention to stop - loss and take - profit. In the short term, the support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: Henan's spot price is 14,800 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; Sichuan's is 14,250 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton; and Guangdong's is 14,990 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton [2]. - **Futures Prices**: The price of the Pig 2507 contract is 13,300 yuan/ton, down 105 yuan/ton; the Pig 2509 contract is 13,685 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton; and the Pig 2511 contract is 13,380 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Pig 2507 contract is 6,971 lots, an increase of 1,440 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 27,734 lots, an increase of 55 lots. The trading volume of the Pig 2509 contract is 22,198 lots, a decrease of 6,147 lots, and the open interest is 79,343 lots, an increase of 69 lots. The trading volume of the Pig 2511 contract is 4,223 lots, a decrease of 1,176 lots, and the open interest is 31,864 lots, an increase of 719 lots [2]. - **Spreads**: The basis of the Pig 2507 contract is 1,500 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton; the basis of the Pig 2509 contract is 1,115 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan/ton; the basis of the Pig 2511 contract is 1,420 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The 7 - 9 spread is - 385 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan/ton; the 9 - 11 spread is 305 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with the value range being integers in the [-2, 2] interval. The strength levels are classified as weak, weakly - biased, neutral, strongly - biased, and strong, where - 2 represents the most bearish view and 2 represents the most bullish view [3]. 3.3 Market Logic - As described in the core view, factors such as price differences, inventory, and liquidity affect the market, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed [4].