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上海的生育率“低于”韩国?别被数据误导了
Hu Xiu· 2025-09-25 05:29
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the comparison of fertility rates between Shanghai and South Korea, questioning the validity of such comparisons given the differences in demographic and social contexts [1][2]. Group 1: Fertility Rate Comparison - The total fertility rate (TFR) for Shanghai's registered population in 2024 is 0.72, while South Korea's is 0.75, indicating a lower rate for Shanghai [1]. - In 2023, Shanghai's TFR was even lower at 0.60 compared to South Korea's 0.73, reinforcing the conclusion that Shanghai's fertility rate is lower [1]. - The article argues that comparing the TFR of South Korea as a whole with that of Shanghai's registered population is not appropriate due to differing demographic contexts [2][3]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Fertility Rates - Shanghai's low fertility rate is attributed to two main factors: a low level of multi-child births and delayed childbirth [4]. - In contrast, Seoul has a high proportion of multi-child births but a lower overall TFR, primarily due to a high percentage of individuals without children, indicating a different underlying issue in South Korea [5]. - Data from the 2020 census shows that the average number of children born to women in Shanghai is below 1.4 across all age groups, with significant declines in younger age brackets [6]. Group 3: Average Childbearing Age - The average childbearing age for registered women in Shanghai in 2024 is 32.58 years, lower than Seoul's 34.61 years and South Korea's overall 33.69 years [8]. - Between 2020 and 2024, the average childbearing age in Shanghai increased by approximately 0.84 years, indicating a trend of delayed childbirth [8][9]. Group 4: Adjusted Fertility Rates - Research indicates that conventional TFR metrics can be distorted by changes in childbearing age, leading to lower apparent fertility rates during periods of delayed childbirth [9]. - Adjusted TFR calculations for Shanghai show values of 0.735 and 0.911, which are higher than Seoul's adjusted rates of 0.604 and 0.688, suggesting that Shanghai's low TFR is significantly influenced by the tempo effect of delayed marriage and childbirth [9].