Group 1 - The article discusses the declining birth rates in Europe and East Asia, highlighting the need for effective fertility policies based on international experiences and China's demographic characteristics [1][2][3] - It emphasizes that timely and substantial cash subsidies, maternity leave policies, and comprehensive support systems have shown positive effects in increasing birth rates in various OECD countries [2][31] - The article notes that countries like France and Sweden have successfully raised their total fertility rates above the warning line due to robust fiscal support and well-structured childcare systems [2][43] Group 2 - China's fertility rate has been declining, attributed to a decrease in the proportion of women of childbearing age, late marriage, and late childbirth trends [3][67] - The proportion of women of childbearing age in China has dropped from 20.99% in 2003 to 16.96% in 2023, with the average marriage age rising to around 28 years by 2020 [3][67] - The article highlights that the high costs of child-rearing, along with women's increasing educational attainment and employment rates, contribute to the declining birth rate in China [3][78] Group 3 - Potential fertility policies in China include cash subsidies, employment support, and improvements in education and healthcare systems [5][96] - Local governments are beginning to implement childcare subsidies, with Hohhot offering significant financial support for families with children [5] - If the Hohhot model is adopted nationwide, the total subsidy scale could exceed 370 billion yuan, representing about 1.3% of general fiscal expenditure [5] Group 4 - The article outlines the international experience of addressing low birth rates, categorizing policies into fiscal support, leave policies, and childcare education support [27][31] - It indicates that countries with comprehensive family welfare systems, such as France and Sweden, have seen significant improvements in their fertility rates due to effective policy implementation [43][60] - The article also points out that countries like South Korea and Singapore have struggled to achieve similar results due to late and insufficient policy measures [60][43]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the declining birth rates in Europe and East Asia, exploring international experiences and potential policies for China to address this issue. Group 1: International Experience in Addressing Low Birth Rates - European and East Asian economies have implemented various birth support policies, including cash subsidies and parental leave, which have shown positive effects on birth rates [2][27]. - OECD countries emphasize systematic and tiered birth support policies targeting parents, children, and businesses, with significant fiscal support and childcare services contributing to improved birth rates [2][31]. - Countries like France and Sweden have successfully increased their total fertility rates (TFR) above replacement levels due to robust fiscal support and comprehensive childcare systems, while South Korea and Singapore have seen limited success due to late and insufficient policy implementation [2][43]. Group 2: Characteristics of China's Population Changes - China's fertility rate has been declining, with the proportion of women of childbearing age decreasing from 20.99% in 2003 to 16.96% in 2023, alongside rising average marriage ages [3][67]. - The labor participation rate of women aged 15-64 remains high at around 70%, but the increasing costs of child-rearing and high employment rates contribute to lower fertility intentions [3][78]. - The flow of population, particularly among young adults, has been increasing, with 3.8 billion migrants by 2020, affecting birth intentions due to disparities in public services and household registration systems [4][84]. Group 3: Potential Fertility Policies for China - Local governments are beginning to implement child-rearing subsidies, with Hohhot offering significant financial support for families with children, which could lead to a total subsidy scale exceeding 370 billion yuan if adopted nationwide [5][96]. - A comprehensive support system is needed beyond cash subsidies, including employment rights for women, educational support, healthcare improvements, and housing policies to create a more favorable environment for child-rearing [5][96]. - Since 2013, China has gradually adjusted its family planning policies, moving from a "two-child" policy to a "three-child" policy, and has introduced tax incentives and local subsidies to encourage higher birth rates [5][96].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the declining birth rates in Europe and East Asia, exploring international experiences and potential policy recommendations for China to address this issue. Group 1: International Experience in Addressing Low Birth Rates - European and East Asian economies have implemented various birth support policies, including cash subsidies and maternity leave, which have shown positive effects [2][27] - OECD countries emphasize systematic and tiered policies targeting parents, children, and businesses, with significant fiscal support and childcare services impacting total fertility rates [2][31] - Countries like France and Sweden have successfully increased their total fertility rates above the warning line due to substantial fiscal support and comprehensive childcare systems [2][43] Group 2: Characteristics of China's Population Changes - China's fertility rate has been declining, with the proportion of women of childbearing age decreasing from 20.99% in 2003 to 16.96% in 2023 [3][67] - The average marriage age for women has risen to around 28 years by 2020, with the crude marriage rate dropping below 6% in 2023 [3][67] - The high costs of child-rearing, along with increased education and employment rates for women, contribute to the declining birth rate [3][78] Group 3: Potential Fertility Promotion Policies in China - Local governments are beginning to implement child-rearing subsidies, with Hohhot offering significant financial support for families with children [5][96] - If the Hohhot model is adopted nationwide, total subsidies could exceed 370 billion yuan, representing 1.3% of general fiscal expenditure [5][96] - A comprehensive support system is needed, including employment rights for women, educational services, healthcare improvements, and housing support [5][96]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the declining birth rates in Europe and East Asia, exploring international experiences and potential policies for China to address this issue, emphasizing the need for systematic support measures to encourage childbirth [1]. Group 1: International Experience in Addressing Low Birth Rates - European and East Asian economies have implemented various birth support policies, including cash subsidies, parental leave, and childcare support, which have shown positive effects on birth rates [2][27]. - OECD data indicates that timely introduction of financial support and parental leave can significantly impact total fertility rates and employment among women of childbearing age [31][43]. - Countries like France and Sweden have successfully increased their fertility rates through comprehensive support systems, while South Korea and Singapore have seen limited success due to delayed and insufficient policy measures [43][60]. Group 2: Characteristics of China's Population Changes - China's fertility rate has been declining, partly due to a decrease in the proportion of women of childbearing age and a trend towards later marriages and childbirth [3][67]. - The proportion of women of childbearing age in China has dropped from 20.99% in 2003 to 16.96% in 2023, with the average marriage age rising to around 28 years by 2020 [3][67]. - The increasing flow of population, influenced by the household registration system and public service disparities, has also contributed to a decline in birth intentions among the mobile population [4][84]. Group 3: Potential Fertility Policies for China - Local governments are beginning to implement child-rearing subsidies, with cities like Hohhot offering substantial financial support for families with children [5]. - If the Hohhot model is adopted nationwide, the total subsidy could exceed 370 billion yuan, representing about 1.3% of general fiscal expenditure [5]. - Beyond cash subsidies, a comprehensive support system addressing employment, education, and healthcare is essential for improving birth rates [5][96].