生育成本约束阶段

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生育补贴有用吗?
远川研究所· 2025-03-24 12:10
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the declining birth rates in various Chinese cities and the introduction of substantial fertility subsidies as a response to this demographic challenge, highlighting the effectiveness and potential impact of these policies on increasing birth rates [1][2][3]. Group 1: Birth Rate Trends - Hohhot's birth rate dropped from 6.85‰ to 5.58‰ in 2023, with deaths surpassing births for the first time, indicating a negative natural population growth [1]. - The city of Tianmen has seen a continuous decline in birth rates since 2016, but after implementing fertility subsidies in 2024, the birth rate increased by 17% compared to the previous year [2]. Group 2: Fertility Subsidy Policies - Hohhot introduced a comprehensive subsidy policy, offering 10,000 yuan for the first child, 50,000 yuan for the second child, and 100,000 yuan for the third child, with additional annual payments until the children reach certain ages [1]. - Tianmen's subsidy includes a one-time birth reward of 3,000 yuan, monthly child-rearing subsidies totaling 36,000 yuan, and housing subsidies that can exceed 220,000 yuan, significantly alleviating financial burdens for families [3]. Group 3: Types of Subsidies - Fertility subsidies differ from maternity allowances; the former incentivizes childbirth while the latter compensates for income loss during maternity leave [4][5]. - Various types of subsidies include one-time birth rewards, ongoing child-rearing subsidies, medical subsidies for prenatal care, and educational subsidies for preschool children [5]. Group 4: Economic Considerations - The average cost of raising a child in China is estimated at 540,000 yuan, with annual expenses around 30,000 yuan; Hohhot's subsidy can cover about 30% of these costs for families with three children [10]. - The disparity in subsidy effectiveness is highlighted by the varying costs of living in different cities, where the same subsidy amount can have vastly different impacts on families [23]. Group 5: International Comparisons - Countries like South Korea and Japan have faced similar demographic challenges, with South Korea's birth rate dropping to 0.72 in 2024, prompting urgent policy responses [14]. - Japan has been more effective in maintaining its birth rate through substantial government support, with cash subsidies significantly higher than those in South Korea [17][18]. Group 6: Lessons from Global Experiences - Successful fertility policies require timely and adequate financial support targeted at the right demographics, as demonstrated by France's early and robust interventions [18][20]. - The article emphasizes the importance of addressing both the financial and social barriers to childbirth, noting that different regions may require tailored approaches to effectively encourage higher birth rates [22].