生育率转变理论

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31省生育友好指数排名公布,云南为何位列第一?
Hu Xiu· 2025-09-29 11:04
在人口老龄化、少子化趋势愈发明显的当下,各地都在响应国家建设生育友好社会的倡议,但对生育友 好政策的效果一直缺乏量化指标评价。 智通财经注意到,最新一期《人口与经济》期刊发表的《生育友好指数构建、测算及省际差异研究》, 通过科学构建指标体系,对全国31个省份的生育友好程度进行了量化评估,为理解中国生育友好型社会 建设现状提供了重要参考。该研究由南京邮电大学教授温勇、该校硕士生苏阳,以及中国人口与发展研 究中心李月副研究员等学者共同完成。 2021年7月,《中共中央 国务院关于优化生育政策促进人口长期均衡发展的决定》中,明确将生育友好作 为用人单位承担社会责任的重要方面。此后,各地在落实三孩政策时,经常出现"构建生育友好型社 会"的表达。 但关于生育友好指数的构建,现有研究尚未形成统一的评价体系。温勇教授团队结合生育率转变理论、 孩子效用论等理论基础,从"愿意生""生得好""养得起"三个核心维度出发,构建了包含"生育状况""生育 保障""生育支持"三大一级指标的生育友好指数体系,共涵盖17项三级指标。此次构建的生育友好指数, 为政策制定者提供可参考的"度量衡"。 "生育状况"作为评估生育友好建设"结果"的核心, ...
研究:31省生育友好指数排名公布,云南为何位列第一?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-29 08:26
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the construction and measurement of a "Fertility-Friendly Index" to evaluate the fertility-friendly environment across 31 provinces in China, providing a quantitative assessment for policymakers [3][4]. Group 1: Fertility-Friendly Index Construction - The research team developed the index based on three core dimensions: "Willingness to Give Birth," "Good Birth Experience," and "Affordability of Raising Children," which includes 17 specific indicators [3][5]. - The index aims to provide a measurable reference for policymakers to understand the current state of building a fertility-friendly society in China [3]. Group 2: Key Indicators - "Fertility Status" includes total fertility rate, sex ratio at birth, average age of first childbirth, maternal mortality rate, and low birth weight rate [4]. - "Fertility Security" focuses on the conditions for a good birth experience, with indicators related to maternal and child healthcare [4]. - "Fertility Support" addresses the affordability of raising children, including paid maternity leave, childcare availability, and economic support measures [5][8]. Group 3: Regional Analysis - The overall national fertility-friendly index score is 82.73, indicating a medium-low level, with significant regional disparities [5][6]. - Yunnan province scored the highest at 92.95, excelling in key indicators such as sex ratio and average age of first childbirth, while Tibet scored the lowest due to high maternal mortality and low childcare availability [6][7]. - Economic development does not necessarily correlate with a higher fertility-friendly index, as seen in regions like Beijing and Guangdong, which scored lower despite their economic status [7][9]. Group 4: Policy Implications - The study highlights the need for a comprehensive approach to support fertility, suggesting that regions with strong support systems do not always translate to better fertility outcomes [10]. - Recommendations include enhancing monitoring of fertility conditions, improving support systems, and tailoring policies to local needs to create a more diverse fertility-friendly environment [10].