1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The intensification of the Middle East geopolitical conflict has led to concerns about the supply interruption risk of methanol from the Middle East, causing the methanol futures main contract to rise sharply on Monday. The short - term market is expected to run strongly, and there are two possible mid - term scenarios depending on the development of the conflict [1][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Impact of Conflict Escalation on Iranian Methanol Plants - Iran's annual methanol production capacity is 17.16 million tons, with over 90% for export. In 2025, imports from Iran accounted for 61% of China's total methanol imports. As of February 28, the monthly shipping volume in the main Middle East region was about 275,000 tons, a 36.3% decline from the previous period. Currently, Iranian methanol plants are in the winter production - limit cycle, with only three plants operating stably. The restart of two planned plants with a total capacity of 3.3 million tons has been postponed. If the conflict escalates, the resumption time of Iranian plants may be delayed, and operating plants may stop, leading to a possible continuous decrease in methanol arrivals in China's coastal areas [2] 3.2 Increased Shipping Risks in the Strait of Hormuz - The Middle East is the world's largest methanol exporter. In 2025, methanol imports from the Middle East accounted for about 70% of China's total methanol imports. About 26 million tons of production capacity in Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Bahrain are located along the Persian Gulf, meaning exports need to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. If shipping is blocked, exports from all Middle Eastern countries will be significantly affected [4] 3.3 Impact of Geopolitical Situation Evolution on China's Methanol Market - In the short term, the market is expected to run strongly due to concerns about supply stability. In the mid - term, if the conflict ends quickly, the market may return to the fundamental trading logic after the initial rise. If the conflict escalates again, there may be a risk of supply interruption, and the market is expected to rise in a pulse - like manner. Currently, the demand from coastal MTO plants may remain low. However, if Middle Eastern oil and gas facilities are damaged, the price increase of downstream chemical products may be transmitted to methanol. It is recommended to pay close attention to the transportation in the Strait of Hormuz and the development of the geopolitical conflict. If the situation remains tense, the methanol port is likely to reduce inventory, and a long - short spread strategy for the May - September contracts can be considered, but attention should be paid to the recovery of imports and the resumption of coastal MTO plants [7][8]