1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In the short term, methanol prices have fallen from their highs. From a macro perspective, there is a possibility of a phased decline in short - term geopolitical conflicts, causing energy - chemical commodities to follow the decline in energy prices. Fundamentally, the methanol fundamentals are neutral. Geopolitical news may significantly increase the intraday volatility of the market, and the trading logic changes rapidly with geopolitical news. [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - In the futures market, the closing price of the methanol main contract (05 contract) dropped from 2,830 yuan/ton to 2,549 yuan/ton, a decrease of 281 yuan/ton; the settlement price dropped from 2,758 yuan/ton to 2,599 yuan/ton, a decrease of 159 yuan/ton; the trading volume was 2,559,554 lots, down from 2,892,796 lots; the open interest decreased by 103,372 lots to 535,849 lots; the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 500 tons to 9,896 tons; the trading volume decreased by 1,326,889 ten - thousand yuan to 6,652,037 ten - thousand yuan. The basis decreased by 34, and the spread between MA05 and MA09 decreased by 108. [2] - In the spot market, the Inner Mongolia price dropped from 2,300 yuan/ton to 2,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton, while the northern Shaanxi and Shandong prices remained unchanged at 2,280 yuan/ton and 2,520 yuan/ton respectively. [2] 3.2 Spot News - The methanol spot price index was 2334.06, a decrease of 125.33. The Taicang spot price was 2550, a decrease of 315, and the Inner Mongolia northern line price was 2210, a decrease of 122.5. Among the 20 large and medium - sized cities monitored by Longzhong, 14 cities saw varying degrees of price drops, with a decline range of 5 - 360 yuan/ton. The domestic methanol market was generally weak. The sharp decline in futures had a significant impact on trading sentiment. The port market dropped significantly, with the spot market mainly driven by rigid demand and some on - the - fence behavior, while the far - end market followed up at low prices and the basis remained stable. The inland market showed different price trends, with partial price increases in Shanxi, Hebei, Hubei, and Hunan, and rapid price drops in the northwest production areas, Henan, and Shandong. The trading volume in the trade link was still relatively abundant, and attention should be paid to the transfer rhythm of goods to downstream. [4] - As of March 4, 2026, the sample inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 144.35 tons, a decrease of 0.32 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 0.22%. This week, the methanol port inventory was basically stable, with accumulation in East China and inventory reduction in South China. During the period, 20.03 tons of visible foreign vessels were included, and the pick - up volume gradually recovered after the Spring Festival. There was concentrated unloading of foreign vessels in Jiangsu, leading to inventory accumulation due to increased supply; in Zhejiang, some foreign vessels being unloaded were not yet included, and the inventory slightly decreased under the background of rigid demand. The inventory in South China ports decreased. In Guangdong, a small amount of imported and domestic trade cargo was supplemented, and the pick - up volume in the mainstream storage areas increased steadily driven by the gradual recovery of downstream, resulting in inventory reduction. In Fujian, only a small amount of domestic trade cargo arrived at the port, and the inventory fluctuated little due to rigid demand consumption. [4][5] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The methanol trend intensity was - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view. [6]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The intensification of the Middle East geopolitical conflict has led to concerns about the supply interruption risk of methanol from the Middle East, causing the methanol futures main contract to rise sharply on Monday. The short - term market is expected to run strongly, and there are two possible mid - term scenarios depending on the development of the conflict [1][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Impact of Conflict Escalation on Iranian Methanol Plants - Iran's annual methanol production capacity is 17.16 million tons, with over 90% for export. In 2025, imports from Iran accounted for 61% of China's total methanol imports. As of February 28, the monthly shipping volume in the main Middle East region was about 275,000 tons, a 36.3% decline from the previous period. Currently, Iranian methanol plants are in the winter production - limit cycle, with only three plants operating stably. The restart of two planned plants with a total capacity of 3.3 million tons has been postponed. If the conflict escalates, the resumption time of Iranian plants may be delayed, and operating plants may stop, leading to a possible continuous decrease in methanol arrivals in China's coastal areas [2] 3.2 Increased Shipping Risks in the Strait of Hormuz - The Middle East is the world's largest methanol exporter. In 2025, methanol imports from the Middle East accounted for about 70% of China's total methanol imports. About 26 million tons of production capacity in Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Bahrain are located along the Persian Gulf, meaning exports need to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. If shipping is blocked, exports from all Middle Eastern countries will be significantly affected [4] 3.3 Impact of Geopolitical Situation Evolution on China's Methanol Market - In the short term, the market is expected to run strongly due to concerns about supply stability. In the mid - term, if the conflict ends quickly, the market may return to the fundamental trading logic after the initial rise. If the conflict escalates again, there may be a risk of supply interruption, and the market is expected to rise in a pulse - like manner. Currently, the demand from coastal MTO plants may remain low. However, if Middle Eastern oil and gas facilities are damaged, the price increase of downstream chemical products may be transmitted to methanol. It is recommended to pay close attention to the transportation in the Strait of Hormuz and the development of the geopolitical conflict. If the situation remains tense, the methanol port is likely to reduce inventory, and a long - short spread strategy for the May - September contracts can be considered, but attention should be paid to the recovery of imports and the resumption of coastal MTO plants [7][8]

News Summary - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the methanol market is experiencing fluctuations due to various operational statuses of production facilities and inventory levels, with expectations of price rebounds but also underlying supply pressures. Group 1: Market Conditions - South American MHTL methanol facility is underperforming, while Koch's 1.7 million tons/year and Natgasoline's 1.75 million tons/year methanol facilities in North America are operating normally [1] - As of November 27, coastal methanol inventory stands at 1.514 million tons, down by 94,500 tons (5.88%) from November 20, but up 29.68% year-on-year [1] - China's methanol production for the week of November 21-27 was 2,023,515 tons, an increase of 7,530 tons from the previous week, with a capacity utilization rate of 89.09%, up 0.37% week-on-week [1] Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - According to Everbright Futures, the shutdown of Iranian facilities has led to a decrease in port arrivals, while high load at East China MTO facilities is expected to reduce port inventory, leading to a rebound in methanol prices; however, downstream polyolefin prices may not rise significantly, indicating a price ceiling for methanol [2] - Yide Futures notes that with the anticipated resumption of operations at Jiutai on December 1, and the impact of Iranian gas restrictions and concentrated downstream procurement, coastal prices have stopped falling and rebounded; however, high domestic supply and port inventory continue to exert pressure on the market [2] - The report highlights that the supply-demand balance may weaken in December due to planned maintenance at Iranian facilities and Ningbo Fude MTO, with a significant decrease in import arrivals expected in late December or January [2]

Core Viewpoint - Methanol prices reflect the real supply and demand situation, influenced by macroeconomic factors and seasonal supply dynamics, with increasing importance of imports in recent years [5][6][38]. Group 1: Historical Review of Methanol Market - Methanol futures were listed on October 28, 2011, and have experienced various cycles of price fluctuations influenced by macroeconomic conditions and supply-demand dynamics [7]. - From 2011 to 2012, the market showed narrow fluctuations, with a gradual recovery in participation [8]. - In 2013, methanol prices initially fell due to weak market sentiment but rebounded later in the year due to seasonal demand and reduced overseas supply [8]. - The years 2014 to 2017 saw a significant impact from macroeconomic factors, with domestic GDP growth slowing from 9.5% in 2011 to 6.9% in 2015, affecting demand [15]. - The period from 2018 to 2019 was characterized by strong demand driven by the real estate sector, despite limited supply growth due to supply-side reforms [21][23]. - The years 2020 to 2023 were marked by significant price volatility driven by cost factors, particularly coal prices, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on supply and demand [27][30]. Group 2: Current Market Dynamics - Since Q4 2023, methanol prices have entered a narrow fluctuation range, influenced by global trade dynamics and geopolitical factors [33]. - The domestic methanol market is experiencing limited supply growth, while downstream demand continues to expand, leading to a tight balance in the market [33]. - The next two years may see a competitive dynamic between domestic production and imports, with the potential for domestic prices to be supported by local market conditions while facing pressure from imported supplies [39].