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甲醇:宏观情绪好转,短期低位反弹
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-06 01:28
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the domestic methanol market showed different trends. Inland methanol prices were generally weak as methanol producers faced poor sales and inventory accumulation after the holiday, leading them to cut prices to boost sales. Coastal methanol prices rebounded from low levels due to policy support, but sales were poor after the price increase and the basis declined [5]. - This week, methanol port inventories increased as expected, with 26.35 million tons of external vessel discharges recorded. In Jiangsu, despite some downstream plants shutting down or reducing production, domestic cargo supply was expected to decrease, and inventory at major storage areas along the Yangtze River was stable due to strong downstream demand. In Zhejiang, inventory remained unchanged due to stable demand. In South China, inventory increased slightly, mainly in Guangdong, as both imported and domestic vessels replenished supplies and holiday - related restrictions limited提货. In Fujian, inventory decreased significantly as there were no vessel arrivals and downstream consumption was stable [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the methanol main contract was 2,259 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 2,257 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan; the trading volume was 741,486 lots, a decrease of 367,579 lots; the open interest of the 09 contract was 812,450 lots, down 23,148 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 4,600 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons; the trading volume was 1.673478 billion yuan, a decrease of 819.972 million yuan; the Ganglian basis was 32, down 18; the spread between MA09 and MA01 was - 60, unchanged [2]. - **Spot Market**: The ex - tank price in Jiangsu was 2,330 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the price in Inner Mongolia was 1,875 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the price in northern Shaanxi was 1,865 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the price in Shandong was 2,120 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. [Trend Intensity] - The trend intensity of methanol is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend. The range of trend intensity is an integer in the [-2, 2] interval, where -2 means most bearish and 2 means most bullish [6]