宝城期货： 总体来看，虽然短期国内甲醇装置迎来一波检修潮，导致周度产量回落，但较难摆脱装置复产带来的高 供应困境。同时，外部货源到港不断增加，叠加下游需求不振，港口累库压力增大。基于偏弱供需基本 面的考虑，预计国内甲醇市场或维持易跌难涨的走势。 宁证期货： 国内甲醇开工高位下降，下游需求回升，9月预期进口量维持高位，甲醇港口库存继续积累，江苏主流 库区提货维持良好。内地甲醇市场回落，企业竞拍成交不佳，港口甲醇市场基差维稳，商谈成交一般。 预计甲醇01合约短期震荡偏弱，上方压力2375一线，建议观望。 截至2025年9月24日，中国甲醇港口库存总量在149.22万吨，较上一期数据减少6.56万吨。其中，华东地 区去库，库存减少4.12万吨；华南地区去库，库存减少2.44万吨。 9月24日，河北甲醇市场主流价格至2300-2320元/吨，下游谨慎观望。 机构观点 消息面 9月23日，郑商所甲醇期货仓单11332张，环比上个交易日持平。 ...

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View - In the short - term, methanol prices will fluctuate within a range. In the medium - to - long - term, the methanol spot market may shift from a strong to a weak - oscillating state [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Categories Price Indicators - **Coal Prices**: The price of Jincheng anthracite remained at 900.00, and Inner Mongolia thermal coal stayed at 630.00 from August 8th to 11th, 2025 [1]. - **Liquefied Gas and Natural Gas Prices**: Sichuan - Chongqing liquefied gas dropped from 4330.00 to 4130.00, and international natural gas decreased from 11.07 to 10.86 during the same period [1]. - **Methanol Prices**: Most methanol prices remained stable, with only minor fluctuations in some regions. For example, the price in Shandong decreased from 2310.00 to 2300.00, and the price in Taicang dropped from 2375.00 to 2365.00 [1]. - **Associated Product Prices**: MTBE price decreased from 5130.00 to 5030.00, while the prices of other associated products such as acetic acid and dimethyl ether remained unchanged [1]. Supply - **Domestic Production**: Domestic methanol production decreased from 264005.00 to 263205.00, and domestic methanol operating rate dropped from 81.73 to 81.48. International operating rate remained at 71.67 [1]. - **Imports**: The arrival volume remained at 29.54 [1]. Inventory - Both enterprise inventory and port inventory remained unchanged at 324520.00 and 808400.00 respectively [1]. Demand - The order backlog remained at 230725.00 [1]. Operating Rates of Downstream Products - The operating rates of most downstream products such as MTO, dimethyl ether, and formaldehyde remained unchanged [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the domestic methanol market showed different trends. Inland methanol prices were generally weak as methanol producers faced poor sales and inventory accumulation after the holiday, leading them to cut prices to boost sales. Coastal methanol prices rebounded from low levels due to policy support, but sales were poor after the price increase and the basis declined [5]. - This week, methanol port inventories increased as expected, with 26.35 million tons of external vessel discharges recorded. In Jiangsu, despite some downstream plants shutting down or reducing production, domestic cargo supply was expected to decrease, and inventory at major storage areas along the Yangtze River was stable due to strong downstream demand. In Zhejiang, inventory remained unchanged due to stable demand. In South China, inventory increased slightly, mainly in Guangdong, as both imported and domestic vessels replenished supplies and holiday - related restrictions limited提货. In Fujian, inventory decreased significantly as there were no vessel arrivals and downstream consumption was stable [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the methanol main contract was 2,259 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 2,257 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan; the trading volume was 741,486 lots, a decrease of 367,579 lots; the open interest of the 09 contract was 812,450 lots, down 23,148 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 4,600 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons; the trading volume was 1.673478 billion yuan, a decrease of 819.972 million yuan; the Ganglian basis was 32, down 18; the spread between MA09 and MA01 was - 60, unchanged [2]. - **Spot Market**: The ex - tank price in Jiangsu was 2,330 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the price in Inner Mongolia was 1,875 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the price in northern Shaanxi was 1,865 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the price in Shandong was 2,120 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. [Trend Intensity] - The trend intensity of methanol is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend. The range of trend intensity is an integer in the [-2, 2] interval, where -2 means most bearish and 2 means most bullish [6]

Core Viewpoint - The methanol market continues to show weakness, with futures prices declining and various factors affecting the fundamentals of the market [1] Market Dynamics - As of April 30, methanol futures closed at 2263 CNY/ton, down 1.82% from the previous week [1] - The trading atmosphere in the inland methanol market weakened as pre-holiday stocking ended, leading some producers to lower prices [1] - Port market sentiment improved, with holders showing increased willingness to hold stock, supporting a stronger basis within the month [1] Production and Inventory - Domestic methanol production rose to 2,008,705 tons, an increase of 109,720 tons week-on-week, with a capacity utilization rate of 89.97%, up 5.77% [1] - Inventory levels at sample production enterprises decreased to 283,400 tons, down 26,500 tons or 8.54% [1] - Port inventory increased significantly to 537,400 tons, up 74,200 tons or 16.02% [1] Profit Margins - Overall methanol profits declined, with specific profit margins reported as follows: - Hebei coke oven gas: 500 CNY/ton, down 2.91% - Inner Mongolia coal-based: 238.44 CNY/ton, down 16.80% - Shandong coal-based: 320.44 CNY/ton, down 19.00% - Shanxi coal-based: 317.72 CNY/ton, down 2.48% - Southwest natural gas-based: -180 CNY/ton, up 4.26% [1] Future Outlook - The expected methanol production for the upcoming week is around 2,064,800 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of approximately 92.49% [1] - Sample production enterprise inventory is projected to increase significantly to 331,900 tons [1] - Port inventory is expected to accumulate due to a sufficient arrival of vessels [1] - The methanol market lacks substantial positive fundamentals, with macro expectations improving but remaining limited [1]