| | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | | ITG国贸期货 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 醒数据 日报 | | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | 期货从业号:F305427 | 2025/08/12 | | | | | 能源化工研究中心 陈一凡 | 投资咨询证号:Z0015946 | | | 指标 | | 2025/08/08 | 2025/08/11 | 涨跌值 | 行情评述 | | | 晋城无烟煤 | 900. 00 | 900. 00 | 0. 00 | | | | 内蒙动力煤 | 630. 00 | 630. 00 | 0.00 | | | 77 ZA | 川渝液化气 | 4330.00 | 4130.00 | -200.00 | | | | 国际大然气 | 11. 07 | 10.86 | -0.21 | | | | 太仓 | 2375.00 | 2365.00 | -10.00 | 昨日甲醇多地价格小幅上调。西北主 | | 肌喷价格 | 内蒙 | 2100.00 | 2100.00 | 0.00 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the domestic methanol market showed different trends. Inland methanol prices were generally weak as methanol producers faced poor sales and inventory accumulation after the holiday, leading them to cut prices to boost sales. Coastal methanol prices rebounded from low levels due to policy support, but sales were poor after the price increase and the basis declined [5]. - This week, methanol port inventories increased as expected, with 26.35 million tons of external vessel discharges recorded. In Jiangsu, despite some downstream plants shutting down or reducing production, domestic cargo supply was expected to decrease, and inventory at major storage areas along the Yangtze River was stable due to strong downstream demand. In Zhejiang, inventory remained unchanged due to stable demand. In South China, inventory increased slightly, mainly in Guangdong, as both imported and domestic vessels replenished supplies and holiday - related restrictions limited提货. In Fujian, inventory decreased significantly as there were no vessel arrivals and downstream consumption was stable [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the methanol main contract was 2,259 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 2,257 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan; the trading volume was 741,486 lots, a decrease of 367,579 lots; the open interest of the 09 contract was 812,450 lots, down 23,148 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 4,600 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons; the trading volume was 1.673478 billion yuan, a decrease of 819.972 million yuan; the Ganglian basis was 32, down 18; the spread between MA09 and MA01 was - 60, unchanged [2]. - **Spot Market**: The ex - tank price in Jiangsu was 2,330 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the price in Inner Mongolia was 1,875 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the price in northern Shaanxi was 1,865 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the price in Shandong was 2,120 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. [Trend Intensity] - The trend intensity of methanol is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend. The range of trend intensity is an integer in the [-2, 2] interval, where -2 means most bearish and 2 means most bullish [6]

【上周甲醇市场动态：期货延续弱势，基本面多因素变化】上周，甲醇期货延续弱势，至 4 月 30 日下 午收盘，甲醇加权收于 2263 元/吨，较前一周下跌 1.82%。 现货方面，下游五一节前备货基本结束，内 地甲醇市场交投氛围走弱，部分生产企业下调价格出货，低价成交尚可。港口甲醇市场情绪好转，持货 商持货意愿增强，支撑月内基差走强，周内港口与内地价差略有扩大。截止 4 月底，西北鄂尔多斯北线 均价 2192 元/吨；华东太仓均价 2460 元/吨，华南广东均价 2497 元/吨。 上周国内甲醇产量再次上升， 中国甲醇产量为 2008705 吨，较前一周增加 109720 吨，装置产能利用率为 89.97%，环比涨 5.77%。 江 浙地区MTO 产能利用率小幅上升，截至 2025 年 5 月 1 日，江浙地区 MTO 装置周均产能利用率 57.86%，较上周涨 1.86 个百分点。 上周甲醇样本生产企业库存继续下降，待发订单量下降。截至 2025 年 4 月 30 日，中国甲醇样本生产企业库存 28.34 万吨，较上期减少 2.65 万吨，跌幅 8.54%；样本企业 订单待发 24.96 万吨，较上期减少 5 ...