Market Overview - As of September 23, the number of methanol futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange remained stable at 11,332 contracts compared to the previous trading day [1] - By September 24, China's total methanol port inventory was 1.4922 million tons, a decrease of 65,600 tons from the previous period, with East China reducing inventory by 41,200 tons and South China by 24,400 tons [1] Institutional Insights - Baocun Futures indicates that despite a wave of maintenance in domestic methanol facilities leading to a weekly production decline, the market is unlikely to escape the high supply situation caused by facility restarts. Increased external supply and weak downstream demand are contributing to rising port inventory pressure, suggesting a bearish outlook for the domestic methanol market [2] - Ningzheng Futures notes that domestic methanol operating rates are declining while downstream demand is recovering. The expected high import volume in September is likely to continue accumulating port inventory, with Jiangsu's main storage areas maintaining good delivery conditions. The inland methanol market is retreating, and auction transactions are not performing well, leading to a generally stable basis in the port methanol market. The short-term outlook for the methanol January contract is expected to be weak with resistance around 2,375 yuan per ton, recommending a wait-and-see approach [2]

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View - In the short - term, methanol prices will fluctuate within a range. In the medium - to - long - term, the methanol spot market may shift from a strong to a weak - oscillating state [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Categories Price Indicators - **Coal Prices**: The price of Jincheng anthracite remained at 900.00, and Inner Mongolia thermal coal stayed at 630.00 from August 8th to 11th, 2025 [1]. - **Liquefied Gas and Natural Gas Prices**: Sichuan - Chongqing liquefied gas dropped from 4330.00 to 4130.00, and international natural gas decreased from 11.07 to 10.86 during the same period [1]. - **Methanol Prices**: Most methanol prices remained stable, with only minor fluctuations in some regions. For example, the price in Shandong decreased from 2310.00 to 2300.00, and the price in Taicang dropped from 2375.00 to 2365.00 [1]. - **Associated Product Prices**: MTBE price decreased from 5130.00 to 5030.00, while the prices of other associated products such as acetic acid and dimethyl ether remained unchanged [1]. Supply - **Domestic Production**: Domestic methanol production decreased from 264005.00 to 263205.00, and domestic methanol operating rate dropped from 81.73 to 81.48. International operating rate remained at 71.67 [1]. - **Imports**: The arrival volume remained at 29.54 [1]. Inventory - Both enterprise inventory and port inventory remained unchanged at 324520.00 and 808400.00 respectively [1]. Demand - The order backlog remained at 230725.00 [1]. Operating Rates of Downstream Products - The operating rates of most downstream products such as MTO, dimethyl ether, and formaldehyde remained unchanged [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the domestic methanol market showed different trends. Inland methanol prices were generally weak as methanol producers faced poor sales and inventory accumulation after the holiday, leading them to cut prices to boost sales. Coastal methanol prices rebounded from low levels due to policy support, but sales were poor after the price increase and the basis declined [5]. - This week, methanol port inventories increased as expected, with 26.35 million tons of external vessel discharges recorded. In Jiangsu, despite some downstream plants shutting down or reducing production, domestic cargo supply was expected to decrease, and inventory at major storage areas along the Yangtze River was stable due to strong downstream demand. In Zhejiang, inventory remained unchanged due to stable demand. In South China, inventory increased slightly, mainly in Guangdong, as both imported and domestic vessels replenished supplies and holiday - related restrictions limited提货. In Fujian, inventory decreased significantly as there were no vessel arrivals and downstream consumption was stable [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the methanol main contract was 2,259 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 2,257 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan; the trading volume was 741,486 lots, a decrease of 367,579 lots; the open interest of the 09 contract was 812,450 lots, down 23,148 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 4,600 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons; the trading volume was 1.673478 billion yuan, a decrease of 819.972 million yuan; the Ganglian basis was 32, down 18; the spread between MA09 and MA01 was - 60, unchanged [2]. - **Spot Market**: The ex - tank price in Jiangsu was 2,330 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the price in Inner Mongolia was 1,875 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the price in northern Shaanxi was 1,865 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the price in Shandong was 2,120 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. [Trend Intensity] - The trend intensity of methanol is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend. The range of trend intensity is an integer in the [-2, 2] interval, where -2 means most bearish and 2 means most bullish [6]

Core Viewpoint - The methanol market continues to show weakness, with futures prices declining and various factors affecting the fundamentals of the market [1] Market Dynamics - As of April 30, methanol futures closed at 2263 CNY/ton, down 1.82% from the previous week [1] - The trading atmosphere in the inland methanol market weakened as pre-holiday stocking ended, leading some producers to lower prices [1] - Port market sentiment improved, with holders showing increased willingness to hold stock, supporting a stronger basis within the month [1] Production and Inventory - Domestic methanol production rose to 2,008,705 tons, an increase of 109,720 tons week-on-week, with a capacity utilization rate of 89.97%, up 5.77% [1] - Inventory levels at sample production enterprises decreased to 283,400 tons, down 26,500 tons or 8.54% [1] - Port inventory increased significantly to 537,400 tons, up 74,200 tons or 16.02% [1] Profit Margins - Overall methanol profits declined, with specific profit margins reported as follows: - Hebei coke oven gas: 500 CNY/ton, down 2.91% - Inner Mongolia coal-based: 238.44 CNY/ton, down 16.80% - Shandong coal-based: 320.44 CNY/ton, down 19.00% - Shanxi coal-based: 317.72 CNY/ton, down 2.48% - Southwest natural gas-based: -180 CNY/ton, up 4.26% [1] Future Outlook - The expected methanol production for the upcoming week is around 2,064,800 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of approximately 92.49% [1] - Sample production enterprise inventory is projected to increase significantly to 331,900 tons [1] - Port inventory is expected to accumulate due to a sufficient arrival of vessels [1] - The methanol market lacks substantial positive fundamentals, with macro expectations improving but remaining limited [1]