Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The sharp rise in methanol prices is due to the clear short - term supply reduction expectation and the tightening medium - to - long - term supply - demand pattern, which has boosted the market's bullish sentiment. The short - term supply is affected by sanctions and gas limit expectations, while the medium - to - long - term supply - demand is driven by limited capacity growth and increasing demand [1][3][5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Contents Driving Factor 1: Short - term Sanctions and Gas Limit Expectations Leading to Import Reduction - The US has tightened sanctions on Iran's chemical logistics and shipping, and some freight agents have stopped accepting Iranian goods. The market anticipates gas supply restrictions in Iran at the end of October, which may lead to a significant contraction in Iran's methanol production in the fourth quarter and intensify the global supply shortage [3]. Driving Factor 2: Strengthened Medium - to - Long - term Supply - Demand Tightening Logic Based on Industrial Fundamentals - **Limited Medium - to - Long - term Capacity Increment**: China's non - integrated methanol capacity has reached its peak, and the pace of new capacity addition has slowed. Overseas, major producers like the US and Saudi have no large - scale expansion plans, and some non - Iranian supplies are contracting [5]. - **Clear Long - term Demand Growth**: Downstream industries such as acetic acid, MTBE are in the capacity expansion phase, and new MTO projects in China will increase the rigid demand for methanol. The demand growth rate is significantly faster than the supply growth rate, establishing a medium - to - long - term supply - demand tightening pattern [5][6]. Outlook for the Future Market - The current rise in methanol prices results from the resonance of short - term supply disruptions and medium - to - long - term supply - demand tightening. The market is bullish, but attention should be paid to key variables such as the release of Iranian sanctioned vessels, gas limit policies, MTO project progress, and logistics game between China and the US. In the short term, prices may remain strong and volatile, and in the medium - to - long - term, prices may enter an upward channel if the supply - demand mismatch persists [7].