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甲醇日评20251010:高库存压制现货价格-20251010
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 06:07
| 甲醇日评20251010: 高库存压制现货价格 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 单位 | 指标 | 2025/10/9 | 2025/9/30 | 变化值 | 要化值 | | | | | | (絶対值) | (相对值) | | 元/吨 | MA01 | 2290.00 | 2328.00 | -38.00 | -1.63% | | 元/吨 | MA05 甲醇期货价格 | 2346.00 | 2362.00 | -16.00 | -0.68% | | 元/吨 | (收盘价) MA09 | 2320.00 | 2329.00 | -9.00 | -0.39% | | 元/呼 | 太仓 | 2210.00 | 2237.50 | -27.50 | -1.23% | | 元/吨 | 山东 | 2330.00 | 2340.00 | -10.00 | -0.43% | | 元/吨 | 广东 期现价格 | 2222.50 | 2250.00 | -27.50 | -1.22% | | | 甲醇观赏价格 及基差 | | | | | | 元/吨 | ...
甲醇数据日报-20251009
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-10-09 03:40
8 服 热 导发 E 户网 站 100 - 100 la pa www.itf.com.cn 400-8888-598 ts No 180 14/1 | 设资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | ITC国贸期货 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 醒教据 日报 | 国贸期货研究院 | 期货从业号:F3054270 | | | | | | | | | | 2025/10/09 | 能源化工研究中心 陈一凡 | 投资咨询证号:Z0015946 | | | | | | | | | | 2025/09/30 | 行情评述 | 指标 | 涨跌值 | 2025/09/29 | 晋城无烟煤 | 900. 00 | 900. 00 | 0. 00 | | | | 内蒙动力煤 | 630. 00 | 630. 00 | 0.00 | NY ZIF | 川渝液化气 | 3760.00 | 3760. 00 | 0. 00 | | | | 国际天然气 | 11. 09 | 10.9 ...
同一轮明月下,团圆化为坚守——“一带一路”海外建设者的别样中秋节
中青报·中青网记者 赵安琪 米兰达介绍说,卡哈马卡医院项目建成后,将改善卡哈马卡地区医疗体系,惠及约26万人口。 10月6日,秘鲁卡哈马卡医院项目现场,属地员工梅拉尼娅·米兰达(左二)和中国同事一起参加中秋节 庆祝活动。中国电建水电十一局供图 在南美的安第斯山下,在东南亚的澜沧江畔,在非洲的撒哈拉边缘,一轮明月跨越山海,照亮了无 数"一带一路"海外建设者的身影。这个中秋节,他们中的很多人远离家乡,在异国他乡以坚守与奉献书 写着别样的团圆奋斗故事。 在南美洲的秘鲁,中国电建水电十一局秘鲁塔拉拉市雨水排放改善项目近来正加紧施工。该项目旨在提 升当地城市防洪排涝能力,应对厄尔尼诺等极端气候,为居民构筑更安全的家园。坚守一线的项目经理 徐庆辉已经连续10年在海外过中秋节。"我们准备了月饼和中餐,邀请秘鲁工程师一起做当地美食。大 家边吃边聊,月光下中西合璧,气氛非常融洽。" "国内的亲友在月下团圆,我们用塔吊的灯光点亮工地。那灯光虽然比不上故乡的月光,却寄托着思 念,也照亮了我们的责任。"徐庆辉说。 同样在秘鲁,中国电建水电十一局秘鲁卡哈马卡医院项目的属地员工梅拉尼娅·米兰达第一次参加中秋 节庆祝活动。她说:"虽然我们 ...
甲醇日评:假期注意持仓风险-20250930
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-09-30 03:10
| | | | 甲醇日评20250930:假期注意持仓风险 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | 单位 | 2025/9/29 | 2025/9/26 | 变化值 | 变化值 | | | | | | | | (絶对值) | (相对值) | | | | | MA01 元/吨 | 2359.00 | 2355.00 | 4.00 | 0.17% | | | 甲醇期货价格 | | MA05 元/吨 | 2388.00 | 2384.00 | 4.00 | 0.17% | | | (收盘价) | | MA09 元/吨 | 2345.00 | 2343.00 | 2.00 | 0.09% | | | | | 太仓 元/呼 | 2250.00 | 2257.50 | -7.50 | -0.33% | | | | | 山东 元/吨 | 2340.00 | 2340.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | 期现价格 | | | 广东 元/吨 | 2260.00 | 2265.00 | -5.00 | -0.22% | ...
“银十”可期 甲醇中长线可布局多单
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-09-28 23:29
非伊方面,国际甲醇装置开工率已开始下降,但外盘市场库存依旧偏高,终端需求持续疲软。尽管醋 酸、MTBE等下游产品出口逐月增长,但其对甲醇需求的拉动作用有限,未能改善外盘价格疲弱态势。 近期,甲醇期货主力合约自低位出现反弹,但短期内港口库存高企仍对价格形成压制。 受港口市场疲弱影响,内地甲醇价格小幅下跌。与此同时,坑口煤价反弹,使得以完全成本计的煤制甲 醇利润收窄至400元/吨左右,但仍处于历史较高水平。目前,甲醇总检修规模约为950万吨/年,剔除 宁夏宝丰三期等上下游同步检修的产能后,非一体化装置检修量约为700万吨/年。由于山西华昱(120 万吨/年)检修未按计划执行,实际检修量较前期有所减少。在当前煤制甲醇利润高企的背景下,需关 注秋季后续检修对产能利用率提升的制约。 伊朗方面,Kimiya甲醇装置因技术故障降负荷运行,Bushehr装置维持停车状态,其他装置运行基本正 常。尽管伊朗甲醇日产量因部分装置故障已降至3.5万吨,但短期内仍足以维持对我国的发货量。在四 季度限气季来临之前,伊朗甲醇高供应态势将持续,但需谨防罐容紧张、卸货效率偏低及运力不足等因 素制约。 近期,伊朗Kimiya装置故障检修的消息再 ...
南华期货2025年LPG四季度展望:供应有韧性,需求待考验
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-28 13:03
南华期货2025年LPG四季度展望 ——供应有韧性,需求待考验 戴一帆(投资咨询资格证号:Z0015428) 沈玮玮(期货从业证书:F03140197 ) 交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 第一章、核心观点 观点总结 三季度国内PG价格呈现先抑后扬的形态,受到疲软的基本面及巨量仓单的影响。展望四季度,我们认为海内 外供应依然具有韧性,而需求端的考验相对更大。在四季度我们认为需要重点关注以下几个方面: 1)供应端:美国在高产量高库存下或仍能维持较高的出口水平,冬季可能的极端天气及中美贸易的走向对其 价格及贸易流向产生影响;中东端目前看出口总量相对稳定,OPEC+政策及实际的增产情况将对未来出口产 生影响,考虑到四季度也是其相对的消费旺季,更倾向于持稳或小幅增量;国内也倾向于维持较高的产量水 平,风险在于利润带来的扰动。 2)需求端:印度传统的消费旺季仍能维持其较高的进口水平,但增量预期有限;日本更多的是季节性带来的 需求增量;韩国的扰动在PN价差及相对的裂解利润带来的裂解需求波动;国内化工需求有见顶回落的预期, 燃烧需求难言超季节性的需求。 价格区间 综合考虑内外的供需情况,我们认为四季度价格区 ...
能源化工C3产业链周度报告-20250928
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-09-28 09:29
国泰君安期货·能源化工 C3产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 日期:2025年9月28日 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0020238 赵书岑(联系人) 期货从业资格号:F03147780 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENT 总结 01 LPG部分 02 丙烯部分 03 价格&价差 供应 需求&库存 价格&价差 平衡表 供应 需求 下游库存 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 本周LPG观点:短期支撑不弱 供应 国产方面,液化气总商品量53.9万吨,较上周环比增加0.1%;其中,民用气商品量21.1万吨(+4.8%),醚后商品量18.0万吨(-1.6%);当前, 国内民用气商品量处于偏低水平,而醚后碳四商品量维持高位水平。进口方面,国际原油趋势上行,但远东市场化工需求支撑环比偏弱,FEI 价格窄幅下调,美国-远东套利窗口有所缩小。本周,隆众口径中国国际船到港量较上周环比减少4.1万吨,以华东为主,受台风影响,20日以 后所有计划均延迟至下周,目前锚地多船待 ...
LPG早报-20250926
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-26 00:55
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The LPG market is expected to remain weak overall. The cheapest delivery location is Shandong, where the supply is abundant due to incoming resources, while the chemical demand is declining [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Contents - **Price Changes**: - **Daily Changes**: On Thursday, the low - end price in East China was 4387 (+0), in Shandong was 4570 (+20), and in South China was 4600 (+0). The price of ether - post carbon four was 4620 (-10). The lowest delivery location was East China, with a basis of 7 (-55) and a 10 - 11 month spread of 113 (+33). FEI and CP c1 decreased to 550 (-3) and 544 (-3) dollars/ton respectively. The FEI monthly spread remained unchanged at 6 dollars, and the CP monthly spread dropped to -14.5 dollars (-3.5) [1]. - **Weekly Changes**: The PG main contract fluctuated strongly. The cheapest delivery product was Shandong civil gas at 4500. The basis weakened to 51 (-74). The 10 - 11 month spread was 49 (-20), the 11 - 12 month spread was 62 (+3). The number of warehouse receipts was 13002 (-6). The external market price increased. The internal - external price difference decreased slightly: PG - CP to 75 (-3); PG - FEI to 67.6 (-9.3). The FEI - CP was 7.5 (+6.5). The US - Asia arbitrage window closed [1]. - **Market Conditions**: - **Supply and Demand**: Incoming shipments decreased, external sales increased slightly, but demand narrowed, leading to an increase in both port and factory inventories. Chemical demand decreased, with the PDH operating rate at 70.49% (-2.61). The operating rates of alkylation and MTBE both declined [1]. - **Profitability**: The profit of PDH to PP continued to weaken, and the production gross margins of alkylated oil and MTBE were low [1]. - **Shipping and Spreads**: Freight rates continued to rise, with the latest rates from the US Gulf to Japan at 155 (+11) and from the Middle East to the Far East at 82 (+7). The FEI - MOPJ was -41.5 (-6.5), and the naphtha spread strengthened [1].
甲醇日报:内地成交仍可-20250924
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-24 05:40
内地成交仍可 甲醇日报 | 2025-09-24 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面:Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤445元/吨(+0),内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润715元/吨(+15);内地甲醇价格方面, 内蒙北线2080元/吨(+15),内蒙北线基差337元/吨(+20),内蒙南线2100元/吨(-70);山东临沂2360元/吨(-5), 鲁南基差217元/吨(+0);河南2250元/吨(+20),河南基差107元/吨(+25);河北2240元/吨(-70),河北基差157 元/吨(-65)。隆众内地工厂库存340480吨(-2080),西北工厂库存225500吨(+4200);隆众内地工厂待发订单233776 吨(-16947),西北工厂待发订单115700吨(-20900)。 港口方面:太仓甲醇2240元/吨(-12),太仓基差-103元/吨(-7),CFR中国260美元/吨(+0),华东进口价差-18元/ 吨(-1),常州甲醇2465元/吨;广东甲醇2250元/吨(-5),广东基差-93元/吨(+0)。隆众港口总库存1557770吨(+7440), 江苏港口库存787000吨(-17000),浙江港口库存2 ...
甲醇日评:库存压力加大-20250924
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-09-24 01:22
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, it suggests a trading strategy of "关注逢低做多机会" (pay attention to buying opportunities on dips), which implies a relatively positive view on potential long - term opportunities in the methanol market [1]. 2) Core View The methanol market has been experiencing weak and volatile trends recently due to high port inventories and low downstream profits in the inland areas, which have suppressed the spot price. The port inventory increased last week, intensifying the inventory pressure. In the short term, the upward driving force is limited because of the high absolute level of port inventories and the lack of restocking motivation among MTO enterprises. But considering that the current spot price in East China has fallen to a low level and the price difference with the inland is also relatively small, the room for further decline is limited. With the arrival of the peak season for traditional downstream industries, it may help relieve the current inventory pressure. Therefore, the report recommends waiting and paying attention to subsequent buying opportunities [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Content a) Price Changes - **Methanol Futures Prices**: MA01 decreased from 2348.00 yuan/ton on 2025/9/22 to 2343.00 yuan/ton on 2025/9/23, a decrease of 0.21%; MA05 decreased from 2376.00 yuan/ton to 2375.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.04%; MA09 increased from 2333.00 yuan/ton to 2337.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.17% [1]. - **Methanol Spot Prices**: In most regions, spot prices showed a downward trend. For example, in Hubei, the price dropped from 2380.00 yuan/ton to 2320.00 yuan/ton, a significant decrease of 2.52%. However, in Guangdong, the price increased from 2250.00 yuan/ton to 2255.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.22% [1]. - **Coal and Natural Gas Prices**: Some coal prices increased slightly, such as the price of Ordos Q5500 coal, which rose from 530.00 yuan/ton to 535.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.94%. Most natural gas prices remained unchanged [1]. b) Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profits**: Coal - based methanol profit decreased from 407.40 yuan/ton to 394.80 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.09%; natural gas - based methanol profit decreased from - 362.00 yuan/ton to - 422.00 yuan/ton, a significant decrease of 16.57% [1]. - **Methanol Downstream Profits**: Some downstream products' profits increased, such as MTBE, whose profit increased from 376.68 yuan/ton to 408.48 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.44%. However, some remained unchanged, like formaldehyde [1]. c) Important Information - **Domestic**: The main methanol contract MA2601 fluctuated within a range. It opened at 2339 yuan/ton, closed at 2343 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 465051 lots and an open interest of 967432, showing increased volume and open interest [1]. - **Foreign**: Due to technical failures, a 1.65 - million - ton methanol plant in a Middle - Eastern country reduced its load to 50%, and another 1.65 - million - ton plant is under maintenance. It is estimated that the loading volume at the port will decrease from late September to the end of the month [1].