证券研究报告 | 策略报告 gszqdatemark 2026 03 01 年 月 日 投资策略 3 月策略观点与金股推荐：布局"涨价"扩散，博弈政策催化 一、3 月市场观点：布局"涨价"扩散，博弈政策催化 二月以来，多重因素正在推动资金定价向"涨价"条线倾斜。其一，叙事层面，AI 科技革命的叙事定价逻辑开始向实物资产"外溢"；其二，供需层面，在逆全球化 的大背景下，地缘变数的增多进一步带动了各国的资源战略调整，致使生产端实 际供需偏紧的局面可能将在更多商品中陆续显现；其三，价格数据层面，无论是海 外还是国内，通胀数据呈现同步上行，产业链中的涨价环节也有所扩散；其四，资 金轮动视角下，尽管 AI 产业的长期趋势无虞，但融资扩张与资本回报的矛盾越久， 资金定价的分歧也将更易放大。每一次科技条线的颠簸，都难免引发资金分流，而 在非 AI 需求尚未确认转强之前，兼顾供给约束基础和需求改善预期的"涨价"条 线显然比其他方向更具吸引力，也更容易在资金轮动中受益。 大势层面，中期趋势向好，市场有望震荡再向上。中期维度，分子与分母共振向好 的期待没有改变。盈利层面，供需双向发力的政策路径明确，价格端修复的趋势延 续，上游向 ...

Group 1: March Market Insights - The report emphasizes a shift towards "price increase" strategies driven by multiple factors, including the narrative of the AI technology revolution spilling over into physical assets, tightening supply-demand dynamics due to geopolitical changes, and rising inflation data both domestically and internationally [1][6][8] - The mid-term outlook remains positive, with expectations of a market rebound supported by dual forces of supply and demand, alongside continued macro liquidity easing [2][8] - The report suggests focusing on sectors that exhibit both supply constraints and demand improvement, such as chemicals, refining, steel, and non-ferrous metals, as well as areas driven by sustained AI demand like storage and PCB [2][8] Group 2: Stock Recommendations - Yanzhou Coal Mining Company (600188.SH) is highlighted for its performance elasticity, with significant increases in coal production and sales expected to enhance profitability [3][9] - Nanshan Aluminum (600219.SH) is noted for its strategic shift towards a technology-driven model and overseas resource expansion, which is anticipated to unlock new profit ceilings [3][13] - Dongyangguang (600673.SH) is recognized for its integration of AIDC and advancements in liquid cooling solutions, positioning it as a leader in AI infrastructure [3][17][20] - Whirlpool (600983.SH) is expected to benefit from the support of major shareholders and a focus on cost reduction and efficiency improvements [3][21] - Ugreen Technology (301606.SZ) is projected to see significant growth driven by its NAS products and expansion in overseas markets [3][23] - Yanjing Beer (000729.SZ) is anticipated to benefit from a recovery in the restaurant sector and a focus on high-margin products [3][26] - Fuling Power (600452.SH) is positioned for growth through its dual business model and collaboration with State Grid, enhancing its operational efficiency [3][28]

证券日报网2月26日讯 ，华谊集团在接受调研者提问时表示，主要厂区或项目设计产能包括安徽基地甲 醇、醋酸分别为66万吨和60万吨；漕泾丙烯酸32万吨；轮胎基地分布于安徽、江苏、重庆、新疆、泰国 等地区，近年增加了乘用胎产能；广西新材料丙烯75万吨、双酚A20万吨等。新增产能项目包括工业气 体公司合成气供应及配套项目、广西新材料32万吨/年丁辛醇及丙烯酸酯项目等。10万吨/年绿色甲醇项 目已于2025年12月举行投产仪式，由公司建设运营，和申能、上港、城投强强联合打造，为上海国际航 运中心建设与绿色低碳转型注入强劲动力。 （文章来源：证券日报） ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Company Overview - The company discussed is Yancoal Australia, a subsidiary of Yanzhou Coal Mining Company, which holds a 62.26% stake in Yancoal Australia. The primary product is high-calorific thermal coal, accounting for 80% of sales, with an annual sales volume of approximately 40 million tons [2]. Coal Industry Insights - The company has a total coal production capacity of 27,759 million tons per year, distributed across various regions: Shandong (5,435 million tons), Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia (11,314 million tons), and Australia (11,010 million tons) [1]. - There are 6,300 million tons of coal production capacity under construction, with expected production of commodity coal reaching 260 million tons by 2031, an increase of 78 million tons from 2025 [3]. - The company anticipates that the price of NEWC (6000 kcal) coal will rise due to reduced production in Indonesia, with current prices at $114.5 per ton. If prices reach $120 per ton, it could yield a profit of 4 billion yuan, and at $150 per ton, the profit could increase to 8 billion yuan [2]. Chemical Industry Developments - The company has a chemical production capacity exceeding 792 million tons per year, including methanol (406 million tons), acetic acid (120 million tons), and ethylene glycol (40 million tons) [1]. - The company aims to increase its chemical product output to over 20 million tons annually within 5-10 years, with a target of 8.3 million tons by 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 690,000 tons [3]. - Current geopolitical conflicts and high oil prices are expected to create growth opportunities for the chemical business [4]. Mining Projects - The company plans to commence operations at the Cao Si Yao molybdenum mine (51% stake) in 2026, with production starting in 2028, targeting a metal output of 108.9 million tons and an annual production of 16,500 tons. Estimated net profit at a price of 2,100 yuan per ton could reach 650 million yuan per year [4]. - The Sosi potash mine project in Canada has a chloride potassium reserve of 173 million tons, with designed capacities of 2 million tons per year for phase one and 800,000 tons per year for phase two, totaling 2.8 million tons per year [4]. Dividend Policy - The company has committed to a cash dividend of no less than 0.5 yuan per share, with a payout ratio of at least 60% of net profit after statutory reserves for 2023-2025. The cash dividend ratio for 2023 and 2024 is expected to meet this commitment [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Shanghai Huayi Industrial Gas Co., Ltd. is a joint venture primarily focused on the supply of industrial gases, chemicals, and green energy products [2] - Shanghai Huayi Industrial Gas Co., Ltd. is owned 60% by Shanghai Huayi Group Co., Ltd. and 40% by Shanghai Huayi Holdings Group Co., Ltd. [2] - The main products of Shanghai Huayi Industrial Gas Co., Ltd. include acetic acid, synthetic ammonia, industrial gases, and green methanol [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Shanghai Huayi Industrial Gas Co., Ltd., is primarily focused on the supply of industrial gases, chemical products, and green energy, with a significant ownership structure involving Shanghai Huayi Group holding 60% and Shanghai Huayi Holdings Group holding 40% [2] Group 1 - Shanghai Huayi Industrial Gas Co., Ltd. specializes in products such as acetic acid, synthetic ammonia, industrial gases, and green methanol [2] - The company has been queried about its involvement in providing products for rocket launches, indicating potential interest in aerospace applications [2]

Group 1 - The company produces methanol primarily as a chemical raw material [2] - The main downstream applications of methanol include acetic acid and dimethyl ether [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Jinniu Chemical primarily uses methanol as a raw material for chemical production, with its main downstream products being acetic acid and dimethyl ether [2] Group 2 - Jinniu Chemical responded to investor inquiries on February 10, indicating its focus on methanol as a key input in its operations [2] - The company highlights the significance of acetic acid and dimethyl ether as major products derived from methanol [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - As the holiday approaches, the domestic methanol market is expected to fluctuate within a range next week. The inland methanol market is gradually entering the pre - holiday adjustment period. On the demand side, traditional downstream devices such as formaldehyde have successively shut down for holidays, and some downstream players have completed pre - holiday stockpiling, leading to a gradual decline in terminal demand. On the supply side, domestic methanol plants have continued to increase their sales efforts, with enterprise inventory levels running at a low level. Some enterprises have adopted a limited - sales strategy, and the overall supply side remains sufficient without obvious pressure. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, market trading activity has significantly decreased, and it is expected that the inland methanol market will maintain a light consolidation pattern in the short term. In the port area, methanol futures followed the non - ferrous metals sector through a round of sharp rises and falls and then fell into range - bound fluctuations again. Currently, the capital sentiment has dissipated, the geopolitical risk between the US and Iran is uncertain, and the fundamental weakness remains unchanged. It is expected that the port market will fluctuate within the bottom range before the holiday. The operation is recommended to focus on reducing risk exposure. Keep an eye on whether and when US President Trump will launch a real military action against Iran [7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Review - The report predicts that the domestic methanol market will be range - bound next week due to the approaching holiday. The inland market is in a pre - holiday adjustment, with demand shrinking and supply sufficient. The port market is affected by factors such as capital sentiment and geopolitical risks, and is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [7] 3.2 Fundamental Data 3.2.1 Domestic Methanol Spot Price - The domestic methanol prices in different regions showed different trends from January 30th to February 6th. Prices in Jiangsu decreased by 2.78%, those in Hebei increased by 1.24%, those in Inner Mongolia increased by 1.12%, and those in Fujian decreased by 4.11%, while prices in Lunan remained unchanged [8] 3.2.2 Methanol Basis - From January 30th to February 6th, the spot price decreased by 2.78%, the futures price decreased by 3.28%, and the basis increased by 13 [11] 3.2.3 Methanol Production Profits by Different Processes - From January 30th to February 6th, the profit of coal - to - methanol increased by 76, that of natural - gas - to - methanol remained unchanged, and that of coke - oven - gas - to - methanol increased by 324 [13] 3.2.4 Domestic Methanol Enterprise Load - The national methanol load this week was 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% compared with last week; the load in the northwest was 81.54%, a decrease of 3.55% compared with last week [15] 3.2.5 Foreign Methanol Prices and Spreads - From January 30th to February 6th, the CFR China price decreased by 2.24%, the CFR Southeast Asia price remained unchanged, and the spread decreased by 6 [18] 3.2.6 Methanol Import Spreads - From January 30th to February 6th, the spot price decreased by 2.78%, the import cost decreased by 2.26%, and the import spread decreased by 11 [21] 3.2.7 Methanol Traditional Downstream Product Prices - The prices of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid remained unchanged from January 30th to February 6th [27] 3.2.8 Formaldehyde Production Profit and Load - From January 30th to February 6th, the formaldehyde production profit decreased by 11, and the load increased by 0.01% [28] 3.2.9 Dimethyl Ether Production Profit and Load - From January 30th to February 6th, the dimethyl ether production profit decreased by 36, and the load increased by 1.45% [30] 3.2.10 Acetic Acid Production Profit and Load - From January 30th to February 6th, the acetic acid production profit increased by 35, and the load decreased by 1.29% [35] 3.2.11 MTO Production Profit and Load - The MTO production profit increased from - 1264 on January 30th to - 1062 on February 6th, and the load decreased by 0.18% [39] 3.2.12 Methanol Port Inventory - This week, the inventory in East China was 56.36, a decrease of 3.22 compared with last week; the inventory in South China was 39.78, a decrease of 0.02 compared with last week [41] 3.2.13 Methanol Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts - From January 30th to February 6th, the warehouse receipts decreased by 0.99%, and the effective forecasts remained unchanged [42] 3.3检修状况 3.3.1 Domestic Methanol Device Maintenance - Many domestic methanol enterprises are in maintenance, planned maintenance, or have production problems in various regions such as the Northwest, East, Southwest, and Northeast. For example, Shaanxi Black Cat's 100,000 - ton/year coke - oven - gas - based methanol device has been under maintenance since early November 2024 [44] 3.3.2 Foreign Methanol Device Operation - Foreign methanol enterprises in countries such as Iran, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and the US have different operating conditions. Some are in normal operation, some are restarting and recovering, and some are under maintenance. For example, ZPC in Iran is reported to have one set restored, but it needs to be verified [45] 3.3.3 Olefin Device Operation - Olefin devices in different regions have different operating conditions. Some are running smoothly, some are under maintenance, and some are expected to be put into production. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy's methanol and olefin devices will be shut down for maintenance on March 15th for about 45 days [46]

1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive analysis of the basic chemical industry's weekly data, covering price and profit changes in multiple sectors such as polyurethane, oil - gas - olefin, coal - chemical, and animal nutrition, and also tracks the stock price performance and profitability of related listed companies [1][2][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Basic Chemical Weekly Data Briefing - **Related Company Performance Tracking**: - **Stock Price Changes**: The basic chemical index decreased by 2.1% in the past week, increased by 9.0% in the past month, 17.6% in the past three months, 48.7% in the past year, and 10.4% since the beginning of 2026. Among the related listed companies, New Hope Liuhe Co., Ltd. (002001.SZ) had a 6.8% increase in the past week, while other companies such as Wanhua Chemical Group Co., Ltd. (600309.SH) and Baofeng Energy Group Co., Ltd. (600989.SH) had varying degrees of decline [8]. - **Profitability**: The report provides the total market value, stock price, net profit attributable to the parent company, PE, and PB of related listed companies from 2024A to 2027E [8]. - **Industry Chain Data**: - **Polyurethane Industry Chain**: This week, the average prices of pure MDI, polymer MDI, and TDI were 17,500 yuan/ton, 13,900 yuan/ton, and 14,377 yuan/ton respectively. The corresponding weekly changes were - 43 yuan/ton, + 36 yuan/ton, and + 292 yuan/ton, and the gross margins were 4,097 yuan/ton, 1,497 yuan/ton, and 2,345 yuan/ton respectively [2][8]. - **Oil - Gas - Olefin Industry Chain**: The average prices of ethane, propane, steam coal, and naphtha were 1,277 yuan/ton, 4,399 yuan/ton, 520 yuan/ton, and 4,137 yuan/ton respectively, with weekly changes of - 139 yuan/ton, + 51 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, and + 63 yuan/ton. The theoretical profits of polyethylene production through different processes and polypropylene production through different processes also had corresponding changes [2][8]. - **Coal - Chemical Industry Chain**: The average prices of synthetic ammonia, urea, DMF, and acetic acid were 2,119 yuan/ton, 1,758 yuan/ton, 4,004 yuan/ton, and 2,511 yuan/ton respectively, with weekly changes of - 65 yuan/ton, + 13 yuan/ton, + 41 yuan/ton, and - 69 yuan/ton. The corresponding gross margins also changed [2]. - **Animal Nutrition Industry Chain**: The average prices of VA, VE, solid methionine, and liquid methionine were 61.4 yuan/kg, 55.9 yuan/kg, 18.2 yuan/kg, and 14.3 yuan/kg respectively, with weekly changes of - 0.1 yuan/kg, + 0.9 yuan/kg, + 0.3 yuan/kg, and + 0.1 yuan/kg [2][9]. 3.2 Basic Chemical Weekly Report - **Basic Chemical Index Trend**: The report does not elaborate on the basic chemical index trend but focuses on the performance data of the index and related companies [8]. - **Polyurethane Plate**: Analyzes the price trends and price - spread situations of pure MDI, polymer MDI, and TDI in China [16][19]. - **Oil - Gas - Olefin Plate**: Discusses the price trends of raw materials such as ethane, propane, natural gas, and crude oil, as well as the profitability of different processes for producing polyethylene and polypropylene [23][31][38]. - **Coal - Chemical Plate**: Covers the price and gross margin trends of coal - coking products and traditional coal - chemical products, as well as some new materials [40][45][52]. - **Animal Nutrition Plate**: Analyzes the price trends of VA, VE, solid methionine, and liquid methionine [57][59][63].