电价逻辑

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从电价逻辑探讨海外工商储需求空间:欧洲、东南亚和非洲市场
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-07-02 07:05
Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating for the industry [5] Core Insights - The report highlights a rapid explosion in overseas industrial and commercial energy storage demand starting from 2025, driven by electricity pricing dynamics and the need for backup power solutions [12][15] - The demand for industrial energy storage is catalyzed by high electricity prices in Europe, rising generation costs in Southeast Asia, and frequent power outages in Africa [19][59] - The report estimates significant energy storage demand potential in Europe (approximately 66 GWh), Southeast Asia (approximately 50 GWh), and Africa (approximately 30 GWh) [3][19] Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Analysis - The underlying demand for industrial energy storage is driven by electricity pricing policies and the need for emergency backup power, with system costs decreasing further stimulating demand [15] - In Europe, high industrial electricity prices and dynamic pricing mechanisms are expected to boost energy storage demand [25][39] - In Southeast Asia, rising generation costs are pushing up local electricity prices, leading to a strong demand for cost-effective off-grid energy storage solutions [19][44] - In Africa, frequent power outages and rising electricity prices are catalyzing the shift towards off-grid energy storage solutions [59] Overseas Electricity Prices - European industrial electricity prices are significantly higher than those in the US, with small commercial users facing the highest costs [25][33] - In Southeast Asia, average electricity prices are relatively low but represent a high percentage of GDP, which is expected to drive energy storage demand [53][44] - African electricity prices are increasing rapidly, with significant implications for energy storage solutions [61] Demand Space - The report estimates that the industrial energy storage demand in Europe is around 66 GWh, while Southeast Asia and Africa have potential demands of approximately 50 GWh and 30 GWh, respectively [3][19] - The profitability of energy storage systems in Europe is supported by peak and off-peak pricing, with a payback period of around four years [3][19] - The report emphasizes the strong growth potential for energy storage systems in emerging markets, particularly in Africa and Southeast Asia [59][19] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on inverter manufacturers with strong positions in Africa, Latin America, and Europe, such as DeYue Co., Airo Energy, and Jinlang Technology [4] - For system integration, leading companies like Sungrow Power Supply and Haibo Technology are highlighted [4] - In the battery cell segment, companies with vertical integration capabilities, such as Pylon Technologies, are recommended [4]