电力行业经营分析
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国电电力(600795):主业经营持续改善,减值冲回助力优异业绩
Changjiang Securities· 2025-10-29 04:45
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9] Core Views - The company's main operations continue to improve, with a significant recovery in impairment contributing to excellent performance. In the third quarter, the company's on-grid electricity volume increased by 7.58% year-on-year, driven by a substantial increase in thermal and photovoltaic installed capacity. The average on-grid electricity price was 0.376 yuan per kilowatt-hour, a decrease of 0.034 yuan per kilowatt-hour year-on-year. Despite a 1.01% year-on-year decline in operating revenue to 47.551 billion yuan, the company's operating costs decreased by 3.88% year-on-year due to a drop in coal prices. The company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.09 billion yuan in the third quarter, a year-on-year increase of 24.87% [2][6][12]. Summary by Sections Company Performance - In the first three quarters, the company achieved operating revenue of 125.205 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.47%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.777 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 26.27% [6]. Electricity Generation - The company completed an on-grid electricity volume of 136.333 billion kilowatt-hours in the third quarter, a year-on-year increase of 7.58%. The company added 4.664 million kilowatts of thermal power capacity in the first three quarters, with 2.66 million kilowatts added in the third quarter. The thermal power on-grid electricity volume was 103.09 billion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 6.93%. Hydropower generation decreased by 2.38% year-on-year due to low water levels in some river basins. Wind power generation decreased by 2.23% year-on-year, while photovoltaic generation increased by 105.86% year-on-year due to rapid expansion of installed capacity [12][13]. Cost Management - The company managed to reduce operating costs by 3.88% year-on-year, with a significant drop in coal prices. The average coal price was 672.46 yuan per ton, down 175.63 yuan per ton year-on-year. The company also reduced its combined financial expenses by 9.80% year-on-year, contributing to an increase in gross margin by 2.46 percentage points [12][13]. Future Outlook - The company is set to begin production at the Dadu River hydropower station in 2025 and 2026, which will enhance its growth prospects. The company has committed to a dividend payout ratio of no less than 60% from 2025 to 2027, with a minimum dividend of 0.22 yuan per share (before tax), resulting in an attractive dividend yield of 4.61% based on expected 2025 earnings [12][13]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are projected to be 0.41 yuan, 0.43 yuan, and 0.47 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 13.00, 12.27, and 11.37 [12][13].