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信达证券:电力资产整合或存投资机遇 稀缺性稳定性电源有望受益市场化
智通财经网· 2025-12-05 03:36
Core Viewpoint - The public utility sector is expected to maintain a stable fundamental outlook through 2026, with a focus on the rebound opportunities in undervalued sectors following style shifts [1][2] Group 1: Industry Outlook - The electricity sector is entering the second half of reforms, with spot market expansion and power source market entry as key themes [2] - The implementation of the "136" document marks the full market entry of China's renewable energy generation, leading to a surge in new energy projects [2] - The current electricity supply-demand structure is transitioning to a more relaxed phase, influenced by weak electricity demand and a significant increase in coal power generation [3] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The peak of the power source investment cycle may have passed, with asset consolidation presenting potential investment opportunities [4] - The energy sector is witnessing a trend of asset restructuring focused on core business optimization and energy transition [4] - The investment in traditional coal power remains robust, while new energy investments are showing signs of decline [5] Group 3: Power Source Categories - In a context of sufficient electricity supply, energy prices are expected to continue to decline, while auxiliary service prices may rise [5] - Coal power is projected to experience a bottoming out of profit cycles, with high dividend potential [5] - Nuclear power is anticipated to grow rapidly, with an increasing market share, despite facing downward price pressures [6] Group 4: Policy and Market Dynamics - The recent policies from the National Development and Reform Commission aim to enhance the commercial model for green electricity and integrate consumption policies [6] - The remaining capacity for hydropower development is limited, while nuclear power is expected to see a significant increase in installed capacity post-2027 [6]