论坛期间，第三届"臻善杯"电力交易模拟竞赛同步举行。竞赛面向高校学生和行业从业人员，以团队形式组织，旨在普及电力交易知识、培养专业人才、 探索交易技术，助力电力市场持续健康发展。 11月23日，第七届"东南电力经济论坛"暨"适应高比例新能源入市的电力市场机制建设与运营"研讨会在南京隆重举行。来自政府部门、能源企业、科研院 所及高校的300余位代表齐聚一堂，围绕电力市场机制设计、发售电商交易策略等核心议题展开深入交流，为推动电力体制改革、促进新能源高效参与市 场、加快建设全国统一电力市场与新型电力系统建言献策。 下午安排了三场专题分论坛，分别聚焦于"电力市场机制与发售电商电力交易策略研究""新型经营主体(虚拟电厂)建设与运营"以及"新能源入市下的能源安 全与系统韧性研究"。来自清华大学、东南大学、西安交通大学、天津大学、合肥工业大学、国网电力科学研究院等高校和机构的学者，以及宝能智慧能 源有限公司等企业代表，就长三角绿电交易、市场化容量保障机制、人工智能在电力市场中的应用等前沿课题展开了深入的探讨。 在上午的主论坛环节，中国电力企业联合会监事长潘跃龙与国家能源局市场监管司及华东监管局有关同志分别就能源绿色转型下 ...

Core Insights - Shandong Province has officially announced the results of its 2025 renewable energy mechanism electricity price bidding, marking the first such auction since the issuance of the "136 Document" aimed at promoting high-quality development of renewable energy [2][4] - The total scale of the mechanism electricity volume is 9.467 billion kWh, with wind power selected at 5.967 billion kWh at a bid price of 0.319 yuan/kWh, and photovoltaic (PV) power at 1.248 billion kWh at a bid price of 0.225 yuan/kWh [2] Renewable Energy Bidding Results - The bidding results indicate a lower bid price for PV due to limited allocated mechanism electricity volume, leading to "panic" pricing in the market, while wind power had a larger allocation, resulting in higher prices [3] - Shandong is a leading province in renewable energy installations, with a total of 119 million kW of wind and solar capacity as of July 2023, including 91.3 million kW of PV and 27.49 million kW of wind power [3] Policy and Market Context - The "136 Document" requires a clear distinction between new and old renewable energy projects, mandating that projects starting after June 1, 2025, must form their mechanism electricity prices through market competition [2][13] - The implementation of the "136 Document" provides a framework for renewable energy projects to enter the electricity market, with the aim of establishing a market-driven pricing mechanism [13] Development Models and Economic Impact - Shandong has developed a "distributed photovoltaic" model, primarily focusing on household installations, which has significantly increased rural income through rooftop leasing [5][7] - By 2025, distributed PV installations are expected to account for over 50% of total PV capacity, with a current share of approximately two-thirds [6] Challenges and Future Directions - The rapid growth of distributed PV has created challenges in electricity consumption, particularly due to the intermittent nature of solar power, leading to periods of "abandoned electricity" and "electricity shortages" [9][11] - The province aims to enhance the balance between electricity supply and demand by increasing wind power and energy storage capacity, with plans to optimize the ratio of wind to solar installations from 3.2:1 to 2.6:1 by the end of 2024 [14] Strategic Initiatives - Shandong's energy strategy includes the development of 3 million kW of new energy storage by 2025, alongside improvements in market trading mechanisms for energy storage [17] - The province is also exploring direct connections between renewable energy plants and industrial customers to enhance profitability and efficiency in energy consumption [19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the utility industry [1] Core Insights - The first mechanism electricity price bidding results for renewable energy in Shandong have been released, indicating a significant market-oriented shift in policy [3][17] - Wind power mechanism electricity price is set at 319 CNY/MWh, which is a 20% premium over the 2024 average spot trading price, while solar power is at 225 CNY/MWh, a 33% premium [3][24] - The report emphasizes the importance of management and operational capabilities for renewable energy operators in a market-driven environment [4][30] Summary by Sections Electricity Sector - The Shandong province has become the first to implement a market-oriented mechanism for renewable energy pricing, with significant participation from over 3000 projects [18][21] - The mechanism electricity volume for wind power is 59.67 billion kWh, while for solar power it is only 12.48 billion kWh, reflecting a stronger policy support for wind energy [3][23] - The report suggests that the future of solar power installations in Shandong may see reduced investment enthusiasm due to current pricing pressures and non-technical cost reductions [4][29] Grid Sector - New pricing mechanisms for nearby consumption of green electricity have been established, which will protect grid interests and promote cost reductions for users [6][35] - The system operation costs will be charged based on the electricity delivered, allowing for potential savings in electricity costs for high-load enterprises [7][37] - The report highlights that the new pricing structure will benefit wind power and energy storage development, making them key components in the green electricity landscape [8][42] Renewable Energy Assets - The report discusses the acceleration of Real World Assets (RWA) in the distributed solar sector, with significant investments from companies like JinkoSolar and GCL-Poly [10][44] - The RWA framework is expected to enhance liquidity and value reassessment of quality distributed solar assets, benefiting original equity holders [11][47] - The collaboration between LinYuan Energy and Ant Group aims to digitize energy assets, further supporting the RWA initiative [12][48] Green Methanol - A major project for green methanol production has been announced by Goldwind, with a total investment of approximately 18.92 billion CNY, aiming to produce 600,000 tons of green methanol annually [13][49] - The report anticipates a surge in demand for green methanol as multiple projects are set to commence production in the coming years [13][49] - Key suppliers and equipment manufacturers in the green methanol sector are expected to see performance improvements as the market expands [13][49]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the cancellation of Mingyang Smart's offshore wind order in Germany, indicating challenges for Chinese wind turbine manufacturers in entering the German market, while still suggesting potential opportunities in other European countries like the UK [5][10][35] - The profitability of leading solar module companies in overseas markets has significantly declined, with JinkoSolar's overseas gross margin dropping from 13.46% to -2.42%, Trina Solar from 17.65% to 3.32%, and LONGi Green Energy from 14.43% to 4.77% [5][38] - The report discusses the competitive landscape in the energy storage sector, noting a recent tender for a large-scale storage system in Inner Mongolia with a bid price range of 0.393 to 0.399 RMB/Wh, indicating a downward trend in pricing [6] Summary by Sections Wind Power - Mingyang Smart has canceled its participation in the Waterkant offshore wind project in Germany, which reflects the difficulties faced by Chinese companies in the German offshore wind market [5][10] - The wind power index increased by 2.06% during the week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.65 percentage points, with a current overall PE ratio of 22.28 [12][18] - The report notes that domestic demand for wind power remains strong, which is expected to improve the overall supply-demand situation and restore profitability for companies in the sector [5][6] Solar Power - Leading solar module companies have reported a significant decline in overseas business profitability, primarily due to trade barriers imposed by the U.S. on Southeast Asian countries [5][38] - The report suggests that the profitability of these companies may have reached a bottom, with potential for recovery as excess capacity is gradually eliminated [5] Energy Storage & Hydrogen - A recent tender for a 5.2GWh energy storage system in Inner Mongolia saw competitive bidding, with prices further declining, indicating a shift towards market-driven pricing in the energy storage sector [6] - The report emphasizes the importance of integrated system solutions for energy storage projects, highlighting the need for a focus on lifecycle costs rather than just initial purchase prices [6] Investment Recommendations - For wind power, the report recommends focusing on domestic demand growth, profitability recovery, and opportunities in offshore wind exports, suggesting companies like Mingyang Smart and Goldwind [5][6] - In solar power, it advises monitoring structural opportunities within the industry, with recommended stocks including Dier Laser and LONGi Green Energy [5] - In energy storage, it highlights opportunities in non-U.S. markets and suggests companies like Sungrow Power and Deye Technology [6]

Core Viewpoint - The State Grid Inner Mongolia Electric Power Company is actively implementing the "three rapid, three innovations, and three comprehensives" approach to facilitate the entry of renewable energy into the market, being the first in the nation to implement the 136 document's guidelines [1][3]. Group 1: Implementation of Policies - In January, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued the 136 document aimed at promoting the market-oriented reform of renewable energy pricing [1]. - The Inner Mongolia Development and Reform Commission and Energy Administration released the implementation plan for the market-oriented reform of renewable energy pricing on May 29, which officially took effect on July 1, marking it as the first provincial-level implementation in the country [1]. Group 2: Market Mechanism Development - The company has developed market rules and prepared the "Guidelines for Full Market Entry of Renewable Energy in the Inner Mongolia Region" to facilitate trading and settlement [3]. - In late June, the company organized a trading session that resulted in contracts for 8.08 billion kilowatt-hours, achieving 97.4% of the annual target [3]. Group 3: Innovations in Market Participation - The company has introduced innovative mechanisms for integrating existing projects with the spot market and for new projects to follow a "market-first, bidding-later" approach [6]. - A differentiated trading model and settlement mechanism for distributed solar power have been established, allowing household and commercial distributed solar users to participate in the market [6]. Group 4: Comprehensive Support and Services - The company is optimizing the market entry process and conducting extensive outreach and training to ensure all renewable energy enterprises are informed about policy changes [6]. - As of August 1, the company completed the first month's settlement of price difference electricity fees for distributed solar users, involving 34,400 households [6]. Group 5: Future Plans - The company plans to continue supporting the full market entry of renewable energy by establishing a "green registration" channel and facilitating high-frequency trading needs [9]. - It encourages long-term power purchase agreements between renewable energy producers and electricity users to create stable supply-demand relationships [9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is optimistic about the public utility sector, maintaining a positive outlook for the industry [1][2] - The report highlights the increasing pressure on electricity consumption and supply differentiation, indicating a shift from tight supply to a balanced state during the 14th Five-Year Plan [6][12] - The report emphasizes the need to focus on high-quality wind power assets due to significant yield differentiation in green electricity [5][42] Group 2 - The report projects that during the 15th Five-Year Plan, the national electricity supply will transition from tight to balanced, with coal power utilization hours expected to decline [7][13] - It forecasts that the total electricity generation will reach 131,399 billion kilowatt-hours by 2030, with an average annual growth rate of 5% [10][14] - The report notes that the new energy sector has seen a historic increase in installed capacity, with wind and solar power installations reaching 52GW and 213GW respectively in the first half of 2025, both up 105% year-on-year [22][15] Group 3 - The report discusses the severe pressure on the consumption of new energy, indicating that the utilization hours may be a more accurate indicator than utilization rates [23][28] - It highlights that the utilization rates for wind and solar power have been declining, with some regions falling below the 90% target [27][33] - The report indicates that the construction of the electricity spot market is accelerating, aiming to reflect real-time supply and demand through price signals [39][34] Group 4 - The report outlines the impact of the 136 document, which promotes the full market entry of new energy, marking a new cycle and starting point for the industry [43][44] - It emphasizes the importance of traditional power sources in ensuring energy security amidst the growing demand from new electricity consumers [13][41] - The report suggests that investment strategies should focus on stability and innovation, balancing traditional and new energy investments [5][42]

Core Viewpoint - The report emphasizes the strategic importance of the dual carbon transition in China, highlighting the ongoing policy adjustments and the critical role of electricity pricing in the development of renewable energy [1][4]. Investment Highlights - The renewable energy development targets set at the beginning of the 14th Five-Year Plan have been fully achieved in terms of quantity. The support for renewable energy has reached new heights since the introduction of the dual carbon strategy, with fixed electricity prices for renewable energy during the 13th Five-Year Plan [2]. - There are significant discrepancies in the completion rates of renewable energy installations across different levels, indicating that centralized large-scale projects have underperformed while distributed projects have exceeded expectations [2]. - The construction of distributed photovoltaic projects has been largely completed by non-listed platforms and some non-traditional power companies, while listed companies primarily focus on centralized projects [2]. Challenges in Renewable Energy Development - The profitability of new projects in the renewable energy sector is declining due to multiple challenges faced during the 14th Five-Year Plan, including coal shortages, electricity shortages, high component costs, slow construction of ultra-high voltage projects, and increased pressure on renewable energy consumption [3]. - The structural contradictions in the electricity system are driven by external environmental changes and technological transitions, necessitating coordinated efforts between policy tools and market mechanisms to adapt the electricity system [3]. Electricity Pricing Mechanism - The electricity pricing mechanism has seen continuous adjustments, with significant policy developments allowing for real price increases and outlining the framework for the electricity market [4]. - The framework for the electricity market is nearing completion, with a goal for renewable energy to fully participate in the market by 2029, although the green value of renewable energy is not yet fully reflected in the market [4]. Renewable Energy Consumption Issues - As the 14th Five-Year Plan concludes, new challenges in renewable energy consumption are emerging, with five key issues identified: electricity system adjustment capacity, economic viability of electrochemical energy storage, non-technical costs, demand-side response, and electricity pricing mechanisms [5]. - The balance between renewable energy profitability and installation growth is critical, with the commercial model for renewable operators shifting from calculating returns based on fixed conditions to determining prices based on acceptable minimum returns [5]. Policy Impact on Market Dynamics - The introduction of Document 136 has shifted the market dynamics, reducing pressure on existing projects while increasing pressure on new projects, potentially leading to a healthier development cycle for the industry [6]. - The document aims to regulate unreasonable practices in the industry and emphasizes the need for a balance between marketization and profitability for new renewable energy projects [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the current challenges faced by renewable operators may be temporary, and the sustainable development of renewable energy is crucial for China's dual carbon strategy. Wind power operators are highlighted as having higher investment value [6]. - Specific companies are recommended for attention based on various factors, including valuation, asset quality, subsidy flexibility, growth potential, and merger expectations [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the photovoltaic industry is experiencing steady policy advancement, with rising prices for silicon materials, silicon wafers, and batteries, while the sector remains undervalued [1][2]. Group 2 - The National Energy Administration is promoting the implementation of the "Document 136" to enhance the ability of renewable energy to participate in the market, addressing issues such as irrational competition and power consumption conflicts [2]. - Silicon material prices have continued to rise, with stable long-term transactions and some companies controlling production, leading to price increases [2]. - The average price of polysilicon dense material is 42.0 RMB/kg, up 5.0 RMB/kg; N-type 182 silicon wafers average 1.10 RMB/piece, up 0.10 RMB/piece; PERC battery 182 averages $0.037/W, up $0.003/W [3]. Group 3 - The photovoltaic sector's recent weekly performance shows a 2.61% increase, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.70 percentage points, while the year-to-date performance is a 3.32% increase, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.57 percentage points [4]. - As of July 25, 2025, the TTM overall valuation of the photovoltaic sector is 20.23 times, ranking in the lower middle compared to other sectors [4]. - The valuation trend indicates a continuous decline from the end of 2021 to the end of 2023, with a gradual increase starting in early 2024 [4].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Company and Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the performance and market strategies of Guoneng Rixin, a company operating in the distributed photovoltaic (PV) power generation sector. The company is expanding its market presence in response to national policies promoting distributed power station power forecasting [2][4]. Key Points and Arguments - **Market Expansion**: Guoneng Rixin successfully expanded its distributed power station market in the first half of the year, expecting to add approximately 4,000 new stations [2][4]. - **Competitors**: The main competitors in the distributed sector are Dongrun Huaneng, while in the centralized market, competitors include Nanrui and Goldwind [2][5]. - **Market Share**: By the end of 2024, Guoneng Rixin is expected to service over 400 GW of centralized power stations, capturing about 37% of the market share [2][5]. - **Policy Impact**: The issuance of Document No. 136 in February 2025 and the April 29 notification regarding the spot market are expected to guide the full market entry of renewable energy, leading to increased revenue from market tools and management services by 2026 [2][6]. - **Future Demand**: Significant changes in market demand and product revenue are anticipated starting in 2027, with a focus on R&D and product updates to adapt to provincial electricity trading rules [2][6][7]. - **Forecasting Requirements**: The accuracy requirements for power forecasting in distributed stations are currently lower than those for centralized stations, but this is expected to change as the grid's main station assessment systems are developed [2][9]. Additional Important Insights - **Channel Partnerships**: The company is leveraging partnerships with automation companies to rapidly expand its customer base in the distributed PV market [3][10]. - **Future Station Additions**: For 2025, the company anticipates adding between 900 to 1,500 new distributed PV stations, with a focus on managing existing stations due to upcoming regulatory requirements [2][8]. - **Power Forecasting Demand Sources**: The demand for power forecasting in distributed systems comes from regional distributed electricity customers, operation and maintenance companies, and investors [11]. - **Electricity Trading Products**: The focus for future electricity trading products will be on market-oriented tools and management services, catering to different market participants [12]. - **AI Applications**: The company is developing an AI model to enhance power forecasting accuracy, with a new version expected to be released in the second half of the year [13]. - **Profit Margins**: The gross margins for power forecasting differ between distributed and centralized systems, with both having high margins for software/services, while hardware margins are low for centralized systems [14].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the first half of 2025, the power market supply - demand pattern was marginally loose, and prices declined. Looking ahead to the second half of the year, electricity prices will still face downward pressure due to factors such as supply - demand looseness, falling primary energy prices, accelerated power spot market construction, and the full - scale participation of new energy in market transactions [68][69]. - In different regional power spot markets that have been officially launched, electricity prices in various regions are expected to show different degrees of decline, with varying influencing factors and characteristics in each region [70]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Review of the Power Market in the First Half of 2025 1.1 Power Supply - From January to April 2025, the newly installed power generation capacity reached 141 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 58.2%. Solar energy had the largest increase, with new capacity of 105 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 74.6%. Wind and thermal power also showed rapid growth, while hydropower slightly decreased, and nuclear power had no new installations [6]. - The cumulative average utilization hours of power generation equipment from January to April 2025 were 1008 hours, a year - on - year decrease of 103 hours. The growth rate of power generation significantly slowed down. The proportion of thermal power generation continued to decline, while other power sources increased to varying degrees [8]. 1.2 Power Demand - From January to April 2025, the cumulative electricity consumption of the whole society was 3156.6 billion kilowatt - hours, a year - on - year increase of 3.1%. Although the electricity consumption growth rate recovered month by month, it was still relatively low compared to the high - base growth last year. The main reasons included the leap - year effect, warm - winter weather, industrial structure adjustment, and weak external demand [15]. 1.3 Power Price - From January to May 2025, the overall pattern of industrial and commercial agency power purchase prices across the country was "more declines than increases." As of May, the average price was 387.3 yuan per megawatt - hour, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8%. There was a further differentiation in prices among regions [22]. 2. Outlook for the Power Market in the Second Half of 2025 2.1 Macro Outlook - **Supply - side**: The newly installed power generation capacity is expected to continue to grow at a high rate. It is estimated that the total power generation in 2025 will reach 11.6 trillion kilowatt - hours, a year - on - year increase of 11.3% [24]. - **Demand - side**: The GDP elasticity coefficient of power consumption in 2025 is expected to drop to around the 2022 - 2023 level. The total national electricity consumption is expected to be 10.4 trillion kilowatt - hours, with the year - on - year growth rate dropping to 5.9% [25]. - **Supply - demand relationship**: The calculated power generation - to - consumption ratio is only 89.6%, indicating that the power market supply - demand is becoming looser [28]. - **Cost factor**: The prices of primary energy such as thermal coal and natural gas have continued to decline, weakening the cost support for electricity prices [30]. - **Market mechanism factor**: The construction of the power spot market has accelerated, and new energy has fully participated in market transactions, both of which will put downward pressure on electricity prices [32][37]. 2.2 Outlook for Electricity Prices in Spot Markets that have been Officially Launched - **Guangdong**: The power market is generally in a state of loose supply - demand. Electricity prices are expected to continue the year - on - year decline trend, but the construction of the southern regional power market may cause some disturbances [38][50]. - **Shanxi**: Electricity prices are expected to gradually approach the cost of coal - fired power and continue to decline under the background of the downward cycle of coal - fired power [51]. - **Shandong**: With the continuous increase in the proportion of new energy and limited demand growth, the spot electricity price still has room to decline [55]. - **Gansu**: The proportion of new energy is high, and electricity prices will face long - term downward pressure. The high volatility of electricity prices is expected to continue due to the high sensitivity to climate conditions [60][63]. - **Western Inner Mongolia**: The proportion of new energy power is expected to increase, and the willingness of thermal power to bid high is weak. The spot price is expected to remain weak, but the downward space is relatively limited as the current price is already at a low level [64][67]. 3. Conclusion - In the first half of 2025, the power market supply - demand was marginally loose, and prices declined. In the second half of the year, electricity prices will still face downward pressure due to multiple factors. Different regions will have different trends in electricity prices [68][69][70].