证券研究报告 公用事业 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 03 月 01 日 投资评级： 看好（维持） 证券分析师 查浩 SAC：S1350524060004 zhahao@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 邓思平 SAC：S1350524070003 dengsiping@huayuanstock.com 联系人 豆鹏超 doupengchao@huayuanstock.com 重视"双碳"考核 重点氢能项目总结 ——大能源行业 2026 年第 8 周周报（20260301） 投资要点： 电力：重视"双碳"考核及绿电消纳 "十五五"开局之年，计划与市场转型关键期，重申重视"双碳"考核。从考核看 投资方向，1）存量角度看配额机制，参考发电企业碳配额交易情况看，预计钢铁、 水泥、铝冶炼进入碳市场后，将进一步从"绿色"的角度加快供给侧出清，上述高 耗能企业承担"绿色"转型责任。2）增量角度看绿电需求，考虑到"十五五"期间 考核指标从能耗转为碳排放，有利于高耗能企业增强清洁能源的使用，其中绿证 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The performance of thermal power is expected to improve due to a decrease in coal prices in 2025, with notable profit growth anticipated for companies like Jiantou Energy, which forecasts a 253% increase in net profit [5] - Hydropower operations are expected to remain stable, with certain regions experiencing favorable water conditions leading to significant profit growth for companies like Guizhou Power and Gui Guan Electric [5] - The impact of wind, solar, and nuclear energy markets is expected to be significant, with challenges anticipated for new energy operators in 2026 due to market adjustments and declining electricity prices [5] - Waste-to-energy companies are projected to maintain high growth rates, driven by improved capacity utilization and heating scale [6] Summary by Sections Thermal Power - The performance of thermal power is closely linked to coal price fluctuations, with national and regional improvements expected in 2025 [5] - Companies like Huaneng International and Datang Power are expected to benefit from lower coal prices and improved operational efficiency [5] Hydropower - Hydropower is anticipated to have stable operations, with specific regions like Sichuan and Yunnan expected to see varying water levels affecting output [5] - Companies such as Gui Guan Electric and Qian Yuan Power are projected to experience significant profit growth due to favorable water conditions [5] New Energy - The introduction of policies is expected to accelerate the transition in the new energy sector, but operators may face challenges due to market adjustments and declining prices [5] - The cancellation of VAT refunds for wind energy operators is expected to impact profits more significantly in 2026 [5] Environmental Protection - Waste-to-energy companies are expected to continue their growth trajectory, with key contributors being capacity utilization and efficiency improvements [6] - Major waste-to-energy companies are projected to maintain profit growth, with specific forecasts for companies like Yongxing Co. and Hanlan Environment [6] Investment Recommendations - Key recommendations include companies with both dividend yield and growth potential such as Gui Guan Electric, and those with low valuations like Jiazhen New Energy [6] - Attention is also drawn to companies with potential capacity increases and high dividend yields, such as Huaneng International and State Power Investment [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes that in 2026, keywords for the development of Chinese power generation companies will include energy powerhouse, new energy market entry, coal power transformation and upgrading, new industrial scenarios, and "Artificial Intelligence+" [1] - The report indicates that Chinese power generation companies will enhance power security capabilities, maintain a multi-energy approach including wind, solar, water, and nuclear, and solidify the foundation for clean power supply driven by both non-fossil and traditional energy sources [1] - It highlights the goal of building world-class enterprises by setting 18 benchmarking indicators across dimensions such as product excellence and innovation leadership, analyzing 24 representative energy companies domestically and internationally to help improve the core competitiveness of Chinese power generation companies [1] Group 2 - The report states that by the end of 2024, domestic benchmark companies will have a power generation capacity of 1.86 billion kilowatts, which is 2.3 times that of foreign benchmark companies, with a non-fossil energy installed capacity ratio increasing by 3.8 percentage points to 54.3%, surpassing foreign counterparts by 1.8 percentage points [2] - It notes that while domestic companies are expanding their asset scale advantage, foreign benchmark companies are experiencing a higher growth rate in non-fossil energy generation volume, leading to an increasing gap in installed capacity [2] - The profit levels and cash flows of both domestic and foreign benchmark companies are improving, indicating a positive trend in financial performance [2]

Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission of China released the latest list of 35 selected investment consulting and evaluation institutions, covering 25 specialties, including hydropower, new energy, nuclear power, and coal and natural gas [4] - The China Meteorological Administration and the National Energy Administration issued guidelines to enhance the energy meteorological service system, proposing 20 key tasks to improve meteorological service capabilities across the energy supply chain [4] - The National Energy Administration published the "2025 Edition of Conventional Island Engineering Budget Quota for Nuclear Power Plants" to reasonably determine nuclear power project costs, including various engineering cost quotas [4] - In 2025, exports of wind power generation units increased by nearly 50%, with a 65.9% increase in exports to the EU and a 73.9% increase to Belt and Road countries, highlighting the growth of green product exports [4] - Chinese scientists successfully developed flexible crystalline silicon perovskite tandem solar cells, addressing efficiency and stability issues, with results published in the journal "Nature" [4] Corporate News - Henan Energy Group and China Pingmei Shenma Group are undergoing a strategic restructuring, with Henan Provincial State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission signing a capital increase agreement, making Henan Energy Group a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Pingmei Shenma Group [5] - China Yangtze Power Co., known as the "water power printing machine" in A-shares, reported an estimated annual revenue of 85.882 billion yuan, a 1.65% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 34.167 billion yuan, a 5.14% increase, driven by increased sales revenue and reduced financial costs [6] Local News - The Northwest Power Grid's new energy installed capacity exceeded 400 million kilowatts, accounting for 60% of the total installed capacity, making it the first regional grid in China with new energy as the main installed capacity [6] - The new energy vehicle industry in Zhaoqing, Guangdong, is accelerating towards a 100 billion yuan output value, with significant advancements in new energy vehicles and new energy storage industries [6]

Core Insights - The report identifies key development themes for Chinese power generation companies in 2026, including energy security, integration of new energy sources, coal power upgrades, and the application of "Artificial Intelligence+" [1] Group 1: Development Trends - Chinese power generation companies will enhance their electricity security capabilities and promote a multi-energy approach, including wind, solar, hydro, and nuclear power, to solidify a clean electricity supply base [1] - The report emphasizes the need to improve the green development capacity of the electricity sector and increase the system's adjustment capabilities to support an annual addition of over 200 million kilowatts of new energy [1] - The report aims to establish a world-class enterprise by setting 18 benchmarking indicators across dimensions such as product excellence and innovation leadership, analyzing 24 representative energy companies [1] Group 2: Comparative Analysis - By the end of 2024, domestic benchmark companies will have a power generation capacity of 1.86 billion kilowatts, which is 2.3 times that of foreign benchmark companies [2] - The proportion of non-fossil energy installed capacity in domestic benchmark companies has increased by 3.8 percentage points to 54.3%, surpassing foreign counterparts by 1.8 percentage points [2] - Profit levels and cash flows for both domestic and foreign benchmark companies have shown positive trends [2]

Core Viewpoint - The newly issued "Basic Rules for the Medium and Long-term Electricity Market" represents a systematic optimization of the electricity market framework, aligning with the goals of a unified national electricity market and adapting to the needs of the electricity spot market development [2][3] Group 1: Overall Framework Optimization - The coverage of the rules has been expanded from "basic rules for medium and long-term electricity trading" to "basic rules for the medium and long-term electricity market," encompassing the entire market chain including registration, trading, execution, settlement, information disclosure, and risk prevention [3] - The integration of rules has been strengthened by removing redundant details and referencing other basic rules, enhancing the completeness and coordination of the medium and long-term market rules [3] - A new chapter on "Market Technical Support System" has been established to meet the requirements of a unified national electricity market and multi-entity participation, ensuring a unified, stable, and compatible trading platform [3] Group 2: National Coordination Enhancement - The market layout has been unified to break down inter-provincial barriers, with cross-regional medium and long-term trading organized by the Beijing and Guangzhou electricity trading centers [4] - A unified technical support system will facilitate "one registration, nationwide sharing," allowing participants to engage in cross-provincial trading without repeated registration processes, thus reducing transaction costs and time [4] Group 3: Spot Market Integration - The rules aim to achieve efficient integration with the spot market, aligning trading sequences, clearing, and settlement with spot market requirements [5] - An innovative settlement mechanism will allow dynamic linkage, with medium and long-term market settlement prices potentially based on day-ahead or real-time market clearing prices [5] - The rules clarify that time-of-use electricity prices will be determined by the market, reflecting real supply and demand conditions [5] Group 4: Adaptation for New Energy Market Entry - The rules enhance trading flexibility to address the intermittent nature of renewable energy, allowing adjustments to contract electricity volumes [6] - Green electricity transaction prices will consist of energy prices and environmental values, with clear settlement processes to ensure traceability [6] - Long-term green electricity trading is encouraged to provide stable cash flow for renewable energy companies [6] Group 5: Empowering New Entities - New types of market participants are defined and included in the electricity market framework, providing clear pathways for their participation [7] - The rules specify that decentralized resources can sign aggregation service contracts with new types of entities to participate in the medium and long-term market [7] - The rights of new types of entities and decentralized resources will be protected through separate settlement of energy prices [7] Group 6: Implementation in Yunnan - Yunnan is actively promoting the efficient implementation of the new rules, aligning provincial regulations with national standards [8] - The province is innovating competitive mechanisms for different cost power sources to enhance collaboration with the spot market [8] - New types of entities are being cultivated, with rules established for virtual power plants to participate in the market [8] Future Outlook - The comprehensive implementation of the new rules is expected to mature the electricity market framework, enhancing the quality and efficiency of the unified national electricity market [9] - Mechanism innovations will drive the market vitality of renewable energy and new entities [9] - The synergistic operation between medium and long-term and spot markets will be fully realized [9]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the industry [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights that in provinces with less renewable energy, there is a need for more long-term contracts, while provinces with more renewable energy may benefit from fewer long-term contracts and more spot market sales. The signing of contracts is expected to be concentrated in the last week, similar to the previous year [5]. - The electricity export plan for Yunnan in 2026 is projected to be 153.3 billion kWh, an increase from 145.2 billion kWh in 2025. The report notes a significant drop in coal prices, which may negatively impact long-term contract negotiations [5]. - The report indicates that electricity consumption driven by AI has surged, with a 43% year-on-year increase in electricity usage for internet data services from January to October this year. The total computing power scale is growing at an annual rate of approximately 30% [5]. - The latest incremental mechanism electricity prices are detailed, with Zhejiang's 2026 mechanism price at 0.3929 yuan/kWh, Chongqing's wind/solar prices at 0.3961/0.3963 yuan/kWh, and Qinghai's wind price at 0.24 yuan/kWh [5]. - The report discusses the integration of transportation and energy in Anhui, aiming for a non-fossil energy generation capacity of around 300,000 kW by 2027 along highways, and 500,000 kW by 2030 [5]. - In Qinghai, the proportion of long-term coal contracts is expected to decrease to 60% in 2026, with the average clearing price for various energy sources provided [5]. Summary by Sections - **Long-term Contracts**: The report emphasizes the need for long-term contracts in provinces with limited renewable energy and suggests that provinces with abundant renewable energy may achieve better returns by focusing on spot market sales [5]. - **Electricity Export Plans**: Yunnan's electricity export plan for 2026 is set at 153.3 billion kWh, indicating growth in external electricity supply [5]. - **AI and Electricity Consumption**: There is a notable increase in electricity consumption driven by AI, with a 43% rise in internet data service electricity usage [5]. - **Incremental Mechanism Prices**: The report provides specific mechanism electricity prices for various provinces, indicating a structured pricing approach for renewable energy [5]. - **Transportation and Energy Integration**: The integration plan in Anhui aims to enhance energy generation capacity along transportation routes, promoting the use of renewable energy [5]. - **Coal Contract Proportions**: The report notes a decrease in long-term coal contract proportions in Qinghai, reflecting a shift in energy market dynamics [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significance of the "Notice on Optimizing Market Quotation for Centralized Renewable Energy Power Generation Enterprises (Trial)" issued by the National Energy Administration, emphasizing its role in addressing market challenges and promoting high-quality energy development during the ongoing energy transition [1]. Group 1: Market Order and Fair Competition - The efficient operation of the electricity market relies on a fair and orderly competitive environment, which is increasingly challenged as renewable energy transitions from policy support to market dominance [2]. - The policy establishes a market order prevention system to address issues like collusion and price manipulation, ensuring compliance with the Anti-Monopoly Law of the People's Republic of China [2]. - It sets clear boundaries for centralized pricing, allowing only enterprises within the same group and province to participate, thus preventing the formation of price alliances across different groups [2]. Group 2: Price Order and Transparency - The policy introduces a dual mechanism of "warning + transparency" to regulate pricing, requiring trading institutions to establish price warning intervals to monitor abnormal pricing behaviors [3]. - It mandates full transparency in the quotation process, addressing information asymmetry and ensuring that pricing reflects fair, legal, and honest principles [3]. - This combination of technical controls and procedural norms aims to stabilize market prices, ensuring they accurately reflect costs and supply-demand relationships [3]. Group 3: Efficiency and Process Optimization - The growth of the renewable energy sector necessitates an efficient trading mechanism, as centralized renewable enterprises often face challenges due to their small scale and dispersed nature [4]. - The policy allows multiple entities within the same group to aggregate for centralized pricing, optimizing processes and reducing transaction costs while enhancing market efficiency [4]. - This reform approach respects the operational characteristics of renewable energy enterprises and aligns with the goal of optimizing resource allocation in the unified national electricity market [4]. Group 4: Technological Empowerment and Digital Regulation - The shift to digital regulation is essential as the variety and frequency of electricity trading increase, necessitating a more precise and real-time regulatory approach [6]. - The policy emphasizes the development of a digital regulatory platform to monitor centralized pricing behaviors, enabling real-time tracking and analysis of trading anomalies [6]. - This technological empowerment enhances regulatory efficiency and reduces costs, allowing for comprehensive lifecycle management of market behaviors [6]. Group 5: Modernization of Governance - The implementation of digital regulation reflects a modernization of governance capabilities in the electricity market, facilitating precise control over provincial transactions and laying the groundwork for regional and national market coordination [7]. - The article highlights the three-dimensional institutional innovations of the policy, which create a supportive system for the entry of renewable energy into the market, addressing current market challenges and contributing to the construction of a new power system [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The public utility sector is expected to maintain a stable fundamental outlook through 2026, with a focus on the rebound opportunities in undervalued sectors following style shifts [1][2] Group 1: Industry Outlook - The electricity sector is entering the second half of reforms, with spot market expansion and power source market entry as key themes [2] - The implementation of the "136" document marks the full market entry of China's renewable energy generation, leading to a surge in new energy projects [2] - The current electricity supply-demand structure is transitioning to a more relaxed phase, influenced by weak electricity demand and a significant increase in coal power generation [3] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The peak of the power source investment cycle may have passed, with asset consolidation presenting potential investment opportunities [4] - The energy sector is witnessing a trend of asset restructuring focused on core business optimization and energy transition [4] - The investment in traditional coal power remains robust, while new energy investments are showing signs of decline [5] Group 3: Power Source Categories - In a context of sufficient electricity supply, energy prices are expected to continue to decline, while auxiliary service prices may rise [5] - Coal power is projected to experience a bottoming out of profit cycles, with high dividend potential [5] - Nuclear power is anticipated to grow rapidly, with an increasing market share, despite facing downward price pressures [6] Group 4: Policy and Market Dynamics - The recent policies from the National Development and Reform Commission aim to enhance the commercial model for green electricity and integrate consumption policies [6] - The remaining capacity for hydropower development is limited, while nuclear power is expected to see a significant increase in installed capacity post-2027 [6]

Core Insights - The seventh "Southeast Power Economic Forum" was held in Nanjing, focusing on the construction and operation of electricity market mechanisms to adapt to a high proportion of new energy sources [1][2] - Over 300 representatives from government, energy companies, research institutions, and universities participated, discussing key topics such as electricity market design and trading strategies [1] Group 1: Main Forum Highlights - Key reports were presented by Pan Yuelong, Chairman of the Supervisory Board of the China Electricity Council, and officials from the National Energy Administration, covering topics like energy green transition and the construction of a unified national electricity market [1] - Experts from various electricity trading centers shared experiences on the operation of a unified national electricity market and the support for new energy development in the southern region [1] Group 2: Sub-Forum Discussions - Three specialized sub-forums were held, focusing on electricity market mechanisms, the construction and operation of new business entities (virtual power plants), and energy security under new energy market conditions [2] - Scholars and representatives from institutions like Tsinghua University and State Grid Electric Power Research Institute discussed cutting-edge topics such as green electricity trading and the application of artificial intelligence in electricity markets [2] Group 3: Local Government Support and Competitions - The forum received strong support from the Gulou District People's Government in Nanjing, which is actively developing a core cluster for the green energy industry [2] - The third "Zhenshan Cup" electricity trading simulation competition was held concurrently, aimed at promoting electricity trading knowledge and cultivating professional talent [2]