Core Insights - The U.S. electric vehicle (EV) market is approaching a critical turning point due to the cancellation of the $7,500 tax credit for EVs, effective September 30, which is expected to trigger a significant buying spree in Q3, followed by a "hangover period" in Q4 and beyond [1][2][3] Group 1: Policy Changes and Market Impact - The signing of the "Big Beautiful Bill" by President Trump will have profound effects on the U.S. EV market, notably reducing the near to mid-term EV penetration rate due to softened emission regulations [2] - The cancellation of the $7,500 consumer tax credit and the tightening of battery production tax credits will significantly impact EV sales and production incentives [8] Group 2: Sales Trends and Projections - A notable surge in EV sales is anticipated in Q3 as consumers rush to purchase vehicles before the tax credit expires, with leasing incentives also ending, which explains the high leasing penetration rate of nearly 60% in recent quarters [3][7] - Tesla is expected to be the biggest beneficiary of this buying spree, as approximately two-thirds of its U.S. sales benefit from the tax credit, translating to about 20% of its global sales [7] - The fourth quarter is projected to see a sharp decline in EV sales, entering a "hangover period" similar to past experiences in European markets after incentive measures ended, with Q3 potentially marking the highest EV penetration rate for an extended period [13] Group 3: Global EV Market Performance - As of June, the global EV penetration rate is around 25%, with China leading at a penetration rate of 53.3%, accounting for 63% of global EV sales [14] - Europe has shown strong performance with a penetration rate of 25.5%, while the U.S. remains lagging at 8.6%, far below the expected levels of over 10% in late 2024 to early 2025 [14]