Core Insights - The report from Goldman Sachs focuses on the competitive landscape and growth prospects in China's food delivery and instant retail sectors, highlighting the intensifying rivalry between eCommerce platforms like Alibaba and JD, and local service leader Meituan [1][5][11] - The eCommerce platforms aim to capture a significant share of the Rmb1.5 trillion instant retail market and leverage high-frequency food delivery services, projected to reach Rmb2.4 trillion by 2030, to cross-sell other products [1][6][11] - The report outlines three competitive scenarios for food delivery market share among Meituan, Alibaba, and JD, indicating potential shifts in market dynamics based on investment strategies [1][12][29] Competitive Landscape - The competition has escalated, with an estimated Rmb25 billion (approximately US$3 billion) invested by Alibaba, JD, and Meituan in the June quarter alone, leading to significant losses for each player [11][12] - Meituan currently leads the food delivery market with approximately 90 million daily orders, while Alibaba's Ele.me and Taobao Instant Commerce have reached a peak of 60 million daily orders [34][35] - JD is stabilizing its daily order volumes at 20-25 million by enhancing its delivery capabilities and expanding its workforce of full-time riders [34][35] Market Projections - The report estimates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9% for food delivery and 18% for instant retail from 2024 to 2030, driven by increased platform subsidies and new user acquisitions [1][36] - The total addressable market (TAM) for food delivery is projected to reach Rmb2.4 trillion and Rmb1.5 trillion for instant shopping by 2030, with various consumption scenarios identified [1][36][37] - The introduction of centralized kitchens is expected to enhance food delivery penetration by improving consumer confidence in food safety and reducing delivery costs [37] Strategic Initiatives - Meituan is focusing on its core business by closing down less profitable segments and launching 1,200 centralized kitchens to streamline operations [1][12][19] - Alibaba has announced a Rmb50 billion investment to support merchants and users, aiming to boost its market share in the instant retail space [11][12] - JD is exploring new models for food delivery and leveraging its logistics network to enhance service offerings [20][34] Financial Implications - The report anticipates significant profit declines across transaction platforms in 2025, with JD and Alibaba expected to incur substantial losses in their food delivery segments [16][20] - Long-term, the reallocation of marketing spend from user acquisition to food delivery subsidies could improve gross merchandise volume (GMV) profit margins for both Alibaba and JD [16][20] - The competitive landscape is expected to normalize over time, potentially leading to modest profits or breakeven for Alibaba and JD's food delivery businesses by 2027 [16][20]