2025 年 11 月 26 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 公司点评 全球市场观察 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 25,895 | 2.67 | 29.09 | | 恒生国企 | 9,158 | 2.67 | 25.63 | | 恒生科技 | 5,612 | 4.01 | 25.60 | | 上证综指 | 3,870 | 0.92 | 15.46 | | 深证综指 | 2,425 | 2.30 | 23.88 | | 深圳创业板 | 2,981 | 2.08 | 39.19 | | 美国道琼斯 | 47,112 | 1.87 | 10.74 | | 美国标普 500 | 6,766 | 2.47 | 15.03 | | 美国纳斯达克 | 23,026 | 3.38 | 19.24 | | 德国 DAX | 23,465 | 1.61 | 17.86 | | 法国 ...

Core Insights - Alibaba's financial performance for the quarter ending September 30, 2025, shows a revenue of RMB 247.795 billion (USD 34.808 billion), representing a year-on-year growth of 5%. Excluding disposed businesses, the revenue growth would be 15% [1][4] - The operating profit significantly declined by 85% to RMB 5.365 billion (USD 754 million), primarily due to a reduction in adjusted EBITA, which fell by 78% to RMB 9.073 billion (USD 1.274 billion) [1][5] - Net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders was RMB 20.990 billion (USD 2.948 billion), a decrease of 52% year-on-year, mainly due to the drop in operating profit [3][5] Financial Performance - Revenue for the six months ending September 30, 2025, was RMB 495.447 billion (USD 69.595 billion), with a year-on-year growth of 3%. On a comparable basis, the growth would be 12% [4][18] - Operating profit for the same period was RMB 40.353 billion (USD 5.668 billion), down 43% year-on-year, attributed to a decrease in adjusted EBITA [5][18] - The net profit for the six months was RMB 62.994 billion (USD 8.849 billion), a decline of 7% year-on-year [5][18] Cash Flow and Investments - Net cash flow from operating activities was RMB 100.99 billion (USD 14.19 billion), down 68% from RMB 314.38 billion in the previous year [3][6] - Free cash flow showed a net outflow of RMB 21.84 billion (USD 3.068 billion), compared to a net inflow of RMB 137.35 billion in the same period last year [3][6] - As of September 30, 2025, cash and other liquid investments totaled RMB 573.889 billion (USD 80.614 billion) [3][6] Business Segments - The revenue from the Instant Retail segment for the quarter was RMB 22.9 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 60% [9][17] - The Cloud Intelligence Group reported revenue of RMB 39.824 billion (USD 5.594 billion), with a year-on-year growth of 34% [8][9] - The "All Other" business segment saw a revenue decline of 25%, primarily due to the disposal of certain businesses and a drop in revenue from Cainiao [10][20] Strategic Developments - Approximately 3,500 Tmall brands have integrated their offline stores into the Instant Retail business as of October 31, 2025 [7] - Alibaba is focusing on AI initiatives, with significant investments in user experience and technology, which have impacted profitability in the short term [17][20] - The CFO indicated that the third quarter represented a peak in investment for the flash purchase business, with expectations for reduced spending in the upcoming quarter [20]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand through the construction of a unified national market, which is seen as a strategic move to leverage China's vast market potential and support high-quality economic development [1][2][3] - China's current economic landscape is characterized by a growing middle-income group, advanced digital infrastructure, and a diverse regional development pattern, which together create a robust ecosystem for consumption upgrades [1][2] - The prediction from the Ministry of Commerce indicates that China's middle-income group will exceed 800 million in the next decade, highlighting significant market potential driven by diverse consumer demands across different demographics [1][2] Group 2 - To convert market potential into effective demand, it is essential to deepen reforms that address barriers in economic circulation, facilitating smoother flow of goods and factors across the country [2] - The strategy involves breaking down local protectionism and market segmentation, allowing regional products to access broader markets at lower costs, thus enriching consumer choices [2] - The focus on expanding domestic demand should be aligned with improving supply quality and optimizing income distribution, addressing the shift in consumer preferences from quantity to quality [2] Group 3 - Technological empowerment is identified as a key driver for unlocking new spaces in domestic demand, with China's large data scale and high digitalization enhancing consumer engagement [3] - The development of the digital and smart economy is crucial for integrating online and offline consumption, creating new consumption hotspots and transforming supply-demand matching [3] - By leveraging technology and breaking down barriers through innovation, the internal circulation of the economy can be strengthened, providing a stable foundation for future growth and resilience against external challenges [3]

观察近期消费市场，一系列结构性变化正在显现。今年1月份至10月份，实物商品网上零售额占社会消 费品零售总额的比重达到25.2%，这意味着每成功4笔实物商品交易就有1笔通过线上完成的。同时，高 能效等级家电、新能源汽车零售额保持较快增长，居民旅游出行、文化体育等消费持续增加。这些数据 勾勒出当前消费市场的重要特征：数字消费、绿色消费、健康消费等新型消费快速发展，服务消费持续 壮大，新业态、新模式、新场景正在重塑消费生态。 拓展新的消费增量，关键在于提升供需适配性。来自需求侧的变化，要求供给体系必须作出更加灵敏、 精准的回应。如果供给创新滞后于需求升级，消费潜力就难以充分释放；如果供给质量不能满足消费期 待，市场活力就会受到抑制。因此，提升供需适配性不仅是激活消费潜力的有效举措，更是畅通经济循 环的关键环节。 当前，我国消费市场正处于转型升级的关键时期。近期召开的国务院常务会议明确提出，"要加快新技 术新模式创新应用，强化人工智能融合赋能，聚焦重点行业、重点领域开发新产品和增值服务，持续拓 展新的消费增量"，为新形势下推动消费提质扩容、激活内需潜力指明了方向。 统筹好培育新增长点与巩固基本盘的关系。拓展增量不能以 ...

宏观经济深度研究 在变化中破局开新 ——2026 年中国经济展望 2025 年，过载的全球系统经历了一次"热启动"。随着高利率压力缓解、供需错 配修复、政策与产业联动重新结合，全球经济虽然未重返旧有常态，但在复原 与重构的交织中，新的增长架构与路径正在形成。展望 2026 年，前一阶段积累 的力量将集中显形，熵增与熵减的拉力此消彼长，全球经济被推至秩序与无序 的临界地带，各国增长模式的差异被迅速放大。就在这一关键节点，中国选择 了一条具有前瞻性的战略路径——以制度确定性对冲外部波动，以结构升级释 放中长期潜能，以新质生产力引领未来竞争，以内需体系建设激活超大规模市 场的深层动能。在这一全局判断之上，中国正在形成一个五年乃至更长周期的 破局开新。以变立势，通过结构优化、产业进化与体系重塑，构筑跨越周期的 竞争力。以需聚力，在更强的消费循环中释放超大规模市场的持续动能。以稳 立基，通过政策的确定性夯实经济运行的战略底盘。三股内生力量的耦合，使 中国在"十五五"开局之年有望保持 5% 左右的增长，在外部环境更具不确定性 的背景下保持稳健。同时，这种由内部驱动的结构性升级正在推动中国经济迈 向更加自主、更加均衡、更加 ...

（央视财经《经济信息联播》）我国超大规模市场优势不仅体现在人口规模，更体现在消费层次的丰富 多元和消费模式的创新迭代。一起感受中国消费大市场的生机活力。 总台央视记者 孟夏冰：位于北京市朝阳区的京东mall，母婴、宠物、零食，每一节"车厢"都有一个不同 的主题。 总台央视记者 吴佳灵：在某服装品牌的北京直播基地，有三个直播间在同时带货。 国家统计局新闻发言人 付凌晖：我国正处在消费结构升级的关键阶段，文化旅游、医疗健康等消费空 间广阔，银发经济、首发经济等快速发展，也为消费扩大注入新动能。 在消费大市场的扩容升级中，服务消费正加速崛起，成为经济增长新引擎。今年以来，文旅市场继续拓 展消费新业态、新模式、新场景，除了表现亮眼的电影，各类线下演出、音乐节、体育赛事、展览、市 集等百花齐放，呈现出多元融合、蓬勃发展的态势。 总台央视记者 苏童：在浙江杭州，有一间全新上线的淘宝"便利店"，它不是街边店，也没有霓虹招 牌，而是藏在居民楼的地下。 在我国超大规模市场的消费版图中，电商已成为不可或缺的增长引擎。刚刚过去的双十一，消费大市场 的火热景象集中呈现，多家电商平台成交数据创下纪录。今年以来，电商生态继续拓展边界，成 ...

Economic Overview - The slowdown in external demand, weakened domestic momentum, and high base effects from the previous year have led to fluctuations in major economic indicators since the fourth quarter, necessitating an increase in macroeconomic policy support [1] - In October, the industrial added value above designated size grew by 4.9% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points from September; retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.9%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points from September; fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) totaled 408.914 billion yuan, down 1.7% year-on-year [1] Policy Measures - The State Council, led by Premier Li Qiang, held a meeting to discuss the implementation of "two major" constructions, focusing on enhancing the adaptability of supply and demand in consumer goods and promoting consumption policies [1][6] - The meeting emphasized the need to rationally arrange project construction and fund disbursement, strengthen project and fund matching, and encourage more private capital participation [1][6] Consumption Trends - Despite a decline in industrial, consumption, and investment data in October, there are structural highlights, particularly in service consumption, which has become an important growth point [3] - From January to October, retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.3%, with service retail sales growing by 5.3% [3] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) saw a year-on-year decline of 1.7%, with private fixed asset investment down by 4.5% [4] - The slowdown in investment growth is attributed to various factors, including a complex external environment, fierce domestic market competition, and weak corporate profitability [4][5] - Investment in infrastructure, manufacturing, and real estate has decelerated significantly, leading to a rare cumulative year-on-year negative value for two consecutive months [4][7] Emerging Consumption - Digital and green consumption are expanding, significantly contributing to consumption growth, with online retail sales increasing by 9.6% year-on-year [4] - The ongoing upgrade in consumption structure is creating new opportunities in sectors like cultural tourism and healthcare, alongside the rapid development of the silver economy and first-time economy [4] "Two Major" Construction - The "two major" construction initiative is positioned as a key driver for effective investment and the cultivation of new productive forces, with a planned investment of 800 billion yuan for 1,459 projects by 2025 [6][7] - This initiative aims to enhance strategic and safety capabilities in key areas, including ecological restoration and major infrastructure projects [6][7] Supply and Demand Adaptability - Enhancing supply and demand adaptability is crucial for releasing consumption potential and facilitating economic circulation [8] - The focus is shifting from merely stimulating consumption to achieving a dynamic balance and positive interaction between supply and demand [8][9]

Investment Themes - Theme 1: Technology consumption expands commercialization paths, AI and instant retail explore incremental growth. Continuous investment in instant retail and AI tracks, rational competition in instant retail, and enhanced deployment capabilities of AI models are expected to drive long-term growth. Recommended companies include Alibaba, Meituan, Pinduoduo, and JD [3] - Theme 2: New consumption structure remains prosperous, and Chinese brands globalize. Short-term focus on tax burden recovery and Spring Festival catalysts, while long-term emphasis on product design and branding capabilities. Recommended companies include Laopuhuangjin, Chaohongji, Caibai, and others [4] - Theme 3: Trade stability improves, and supply-side reforms strengthen domestic consumption. The relative easing of tariffs between China and the US, along with strong growth in emerging markets, supports high market prosperity. Recommended company is Xiaoshangpincheng [5] Macro Overview - Domestic demand is boosted, and cutting-edge technology drives new consumption scenarios. The online retail penetration rate continues to rise, with online retail sales growing by 9.8% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2025, reaching 11.3 trillion yuan [11][30] - The retail sales total increased by 4.5% year-on-year, reaching 36.6 trillion yuan in the first nine months of 2025, indicating stable growth [11] E-commerce Focus - E-commerce platforms are focusing on experience and efficiency, with AI and instant retail becoming new engines. The integration of AI into consumer applications and supply chain management is enhancing operational efficiency and user experience [14][42] - The overall industry flow is rising, but profit margins are under pressure due to increased investments in instant retail and AI [33] Consumer Trends - Emotional consumption is on the rise, with consumers willing to pay a premium for emotional satisfaction and psychological comfort. The emotional economy market in China is expected to exceed 2.3 trillion yuan by 2024 [19] - The Chinese toy market is expanding rapidly, with the total value expected to reach 110.1 billion yuan by 2026, growing at an annual rate of over 20% [19] AI and Technology Integration - AI is becoming a new competitive field for internet companies, with significant investments in AI infrastructure and applications. Alibaba's cloud revenue grew by 26% in Q2 2025, driven by AI-related products [42] - Major platforms are exploring commercial paths through differentiated AI applications and external ecosystem collaboration [43] Local Life and Instant Retail - The competition in instant retail is stabilizing, with platforms adjusting strategies to focus on efficiency rather than just volume. Daily order volumes for Meituan and Taobao are stabilizing at 70-80 million, while JD's remains around 10 million [51] - Instant retail has successfully cultivated consumer mindsets, leading to significant increases in monthly usage across platforms [55] International Expansion - Platforms are pursuing differentiated paths for international expansion, with Alibaba focusing on a light-asset model and Pinduoduo leveraging social dynamics for growth. JD is emphasizing localized operations in Europe, while Meituan replicates its local life model in new markets [61] - The export value of Yiwu continues to grow, with a total import and export value of 631.2 billion yuan in the first nine months of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 26.3% [70]

Consumer Sector - The "14th Five-Year Plan" focused on supply-side structural reforms, while the "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes direct stimulation of demand, aiming to significantly boost consumer spending and enhance domestic circulation [2][3] - The goal of the "15th Five-Year Plan" includes increasing the consumer rate and ensuring that domestic demand continues to be the main driver of economic growth, with expectations for retail sales growth to outpace GDP growth [3] - Policies such as government and enterprise subsidies are expected to directly stimulate consumer spending, with a shift from structural optimization to activating consumption [2][3] E-commerce and Retail Innovations - New retail models like live streaming and instant retail are emerging growth areas, leveraging platforms like Douyin and Kuaishou to create new consumer scenarios [4] - Instant retail is evolving from meeting urgent needs to catering to a broader range of consumer demands, creating a positive feedback loop that drives both supply and demand [4][5] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" calls for expanding the supply of quality consumer goods and services, with e-commerce platforms expected to focus on balancing price and quality [3][5] Travel and Tourism - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims to enhance the quality of tourism services and promote the integration of culture and tourism, with OTA platforms playing a key role in this transformation [6][7] - Domestic tourism is being enriched through cultural elements, while inbound tourism policies are being optimized to lower barriers and enhance the experience for international visitors [7][8] - OTA platforms are responding to national policies by expanding their service offerings and improving the overall travel experience for both domestic and international tourists [6][7] Technology and AI Development - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes accelerating AI innovation and application, with a focus on enhancing efficiency in existing businesses and driving new demand through AI technologies [9][10] - The demand for cloud computing is surging due to the growing need for AI applications, with Chinese cloud providers expected to benefit significantly from this trend [10] - AI applications are anticipated to revolutionize content production and advertising, with platforms leveraging AI to enhance user engagement and operational efficiency [11][12]

21世纪经济报道记者陶力 上海报道 "双十一"战报的沉寂，映射出中国消费市场的深层变局。当平台与品牌从GMV（商品交易总额）的狂 热转向经营质量的冷静，零售渠道与资本策略的底层逻辑也在重塑。 在渠道端，即时零售从"新战场"进阶为"新基建"，其带来的增长红利更多是存量消费场景的迁移，而非 纯粹的增量创造。在资本端，投资范式已悄然转向：博裕资本接手星巴克中国多数股权，CPE源峰斥资 3.5亿美元与汉堡王成立中国合资公司，一系列案例标志着以掌控经营权、深度赋能为核心的"控股型交 易"，正成为头部机构穿越周期的新共识。 11月11日，头部消费私募基金路威凯腾（英文名：L Catterton）董事总经理金涌博在接受21世纪经济报 道记者独家专访时指出，消费投资正显著转向控股型交易，机构会更青睐那些已构建起强大品牌力、产 品力并拥有健康现金流的企业，"初创品牌蕴含高风险，通过资本密集投入并取得成功的案例其实很有 限。私募股权机构更愿意去寻找和扶持那些，已证明自身实力的成熟企业。" 金涌博：我们从去年开始就注意到了即时零售。它给零售行业带来的影响主要有以下几点： 第一、整个零售版图上的渠道迁移。如果你去看即时零售的整个版图 ...