电子化团队(DAO与远程办公)
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乔布斯35年前对未来做出的12个核心预测,竟然一一应验
虎嗅APP· 2026-01-31 09:38
Core Insights - The article discusses Steve Jobs' predictions from a 1990 interview, highlighting their accuracy over the past 30 years, particularly in areas like remote work, edge computing, and technology transparency [4][6]. Group 1: Timeless Wisdom - Jobs articulated 12 key insights that have proven to be prescient, including the idea that "computers are bicycles for the mind," emphasizing the amplification of human capabilities through tools [7][10]. - He stated that "tools define what humans can do," suggesting that the development of technology shapes human creativity [7]. - The notion that "real adoption is for non-experts" indicates that technology should be accessible to everyone, not just specialists [9]. Group 2: Nature of Tools - Jobs compared computers to bicycles, arguing that they enhance human efficiency rather than replace it, illustrating the "leverage principle" of technology [11][12]. - He emphasized that the future of tools must align with human intuition, rather than forcing people to adapt to the tools [15][17]. - The article posits that the competition in the future will be between those who effectively utilize AI and those who do not [17]. Group 3: Organizational Restructuring - Jobs predicted the rise of decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs) and remote work, foreseeing a shift in how teams would operate across geographical boundaries [23]. - He drew parallels between the evolution of electric motors and computing, suggesting that power and computing capabilities would decentralize over time [25][26]. - The article notes that traditional hierarchical structures are becoming obsolete as information becomes more accessible at the individual level [32][35]. Group 4: Product Philosophy - Jobs argued that the adoption of technology is driven by its utility rather than the technology itself, highlighting the importance of making technology useful and creative [42][43]. - He believed that understanding human nature is crucial for predicting technological trends, as successful technologies cater to inherent human desires [48][49]. - The article suggests that those who can blend psychology, sociology, and art with technology will have a better foresight in the AI era [52]. Group 5: Innovation as a Necessity - Jobs viewed innovation as a survival instinct rather than a choice, emphasizing the need for constant evolution in technology and business [55][56]. - He believed that the concept of "death" is essential for innovation, as it paves the way for new ideas and technologies to emerge [62][64]. - The article concludes that in the AI era, companies that cling to outdated practices will likely fail, while those that embrace change will thrive [63].