Group 1 - Smoore International (06969) has seen a decline of over 7%, reaching a low of HKD 15.85, which is more than a 30% drop from its yearly high of HKD 23.92 [1] - UBS reported that they recently met with the management of Japan Tobacco in Tokyo and held an investor meeting with Smoore's management in Shenzhen [1] - Despite the US increasing efforts to combat illegal e-cigarettes starting in early 2025, feedback from field investigations suggests that the impact of enforcement may weaken due to inconsistent enforcement [1] Group 2 - Chinese customs data indicates a 39% increase in e-cigarette exports in August, suggesting that Chinese e-cigarette exporters are adapting to US enforcement measures [1] - UBS forecasts a 20% year-on-year revenue growth for Smoore International in 2025, primarily driven by e-cigarette sales, but anticipates a 40% decline in net profit due to rising R&D and sales expenses, along with margin pressure [1] - The firm's net profit predictions for 2025-2027 are 18-45% lower than market consensus, maintaining a "Sell" rating with a target price of HKD 13.11 [1]

Core Viewpoint - UBS maintains a "Sell" rating on Smoore International (06969) with a target price of HKD 13.11, citing concerns over profitability despite expected revenue growth driven by e-cigarette sales [1] Group 1: Company Insights - UBS recently met with management from Japan Tobacco in Tokyo and held an investor meeting with Smoore's management in Shenzhen [1] - The firm anticipates a 20% year-on-year revenue growth in 2025, primarily driven by e-cigarette sales [1] - However, net profit is expected to decline by 40% year-on-year due to rising R&D and sales expenses, along with pressure on gross margins [1] Group 2: Market and Regulatory Environment - The impact of U.S. enforcement against illegal e-cigarettes may weaken due to inconsistent enforcement, as indicated by on-the-ground feedback [1] - Chinese customs data shows a 39% increase in e-cigarette exports in August, suggesting that Chinese e-cigarette exporters are adapting to U.S. enforcement measures [1] - UBS's net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 18-45% lower than market consensus [1]