Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in battery-grade lithium carbonate prices, after months of decline, is attributed to supply adjustments, policy guidance, and marginal improvements in demand [2][4]. Supply Dynamics - The spot price of domestic battery-grade lithium carbonate rose to 66,800 yuan/ton on July 21, up from a low of 60,000 yuan/ton on June 9, marking an increase of over 11% [2]. - Futures prices also surged, with the main contract reaching over 71,700 yuan/ton on July 22, a nearly 20% increase from the May low of 59,900 yuan/ton [2]. - Regulatory actions, such as the requirement for lithium mining companies in Yichun to compile resource verification reports, indicate a tightening of supply due to governance of illegal mining practices [3]. Market Conditions - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing a shift from a price war leading to declining profit margins to a focus on reducing excess capacity and improving industry health [5]. - The demand for lithium carbonate is supported by the rapid growth of the new energy vehicle sector in China and a recovery in European markets, alongside continued demand in Southeast Asia [5]. Corporate Strategies - Companies are responding to rising lithium prices by enhancing technological capabilities to lower costs and improve product quality [6]. - Leading cathode material manufacturers are expected to better absorb the impact of rising lithium prices due to their technological advantages [6]. - The rise in lithium prices may lead to increased industry concentration, benefiting larger battery manufacturers with advanced technologies and supply chain management [6]. Future Price Trends - Short-term forecasts suggest a strong oscillation in lithium carbonate prices, with expectations of a trading range between 68,000 and 78,000 yuan/ton [8]. - Long-term projections indicate a continued oversupply in the lithium carbonate market, with prices likely to face downward pressure, potentially falling to 60,000 to 70,000 yuan/ton by the end of 2025 [9]. Industry Outlook - The lithium industry is transitioning towards a model focused on high quality and sustainability, with companies possessing technological barriers and global market strategies likely to gain competitive advantages [10]. - The current price rebound is seen as a temporary reaction to market sentiment and supply-demand mismatches, with a long-term view suggesting persistent supply strength against weaker demand [10][11].